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India's March Industrial Output Misses Expectations but Rebounds from 6-Month Low
India's industrial production in March fell short of economists' expectations due to a faster data release and a slower mining activity. However, it rebounded after a six-month high in the preceding month, according to government data released on Monday. The industrial output in March grew by 3% compared with the 3.3% expected by economists and a revised 2,7% in February. The data revealed that mining activity increased at a slower rate of 0.4%, compared with 1.6% one month earlier. The manufacturing output increased by 3% in march, compared to a revised 2.8% the month before. Meanwhile, electricity production grew from 3.6% to 6.3%. India announced earlier this month that it would release its monthly industrial production growth figures on the 28th day of each month. This will reduce the 42-day interval between data releases. Aditi Nayar is an economist with ICRA. She said that the data's release early may have dampened estimates of growth. This could be revised more later. The output of consumer durables, including household appliances and cars, increased 6.6% in march, compared to a 3.7% increase in February. The output of capital goods (which includes machinery and manufacturing plants) increased by 2.4% in march, compared with an increase of 8.2% in the previous month. The industrial output grew by 4% between April and March, a slowdown from the 5.9% increase in the previous period. Although the United States is currently engaged in positive trade negotiations with India, concerns over possible U.S. tariffs on imports and abrupt policy changes continue to loom over global industries.
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Copper prices continue to rise, but the focus is on U.S. China trade tensions
The copper price remained stable on Monday, as traders awaited further developments in U.S. China trade relations. They also hoped to get hints about the prospects for demand in China where U.S. tariffs on imports are putting pressure on growth. By 1035 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), was almost unchanged at $9.376.50 per metric ton. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, insists that there have been positive developments with China and that he spoke with President Xi Jinping. Beijing, however, has denied that trade talks have taken place, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent didn't say on Sunday that tariff negotiations were in progress. Ewa Mnthey, ING commodities analyst, said that the metals market is particularly concerned about the impact of tariffs imposed on China - as it is their biggest customer. The demand for industrial metals and copper is expected to fall as the U.S. economy slows down due to tariffs and China struggles to revive its own economy. Analysts believe that further Chinese measures to support the growth and demand of copper, which is widely used in the construction and power industries, could limit any downside. China is advancing its stimulus plans for this year, but it's holding back on new measures to maintain composure. It hopes that Washington will blink first in the protracted trade dispute. Copper prices are supported by a huge drop in inventories In warehouses monitored Shanghai Futures Exchange, which fell 32% last weekend to 116.753 tons compared with the previous week. Due to a shortage of scrap, some Chinese copper users have turned to refined copper. Technically, copper is supported by the 100-day and 200-day moving averges at $9,305 and $ 9,320 respectively. The industrial metal markets await the survey of purchasing managers from China's manufacturing industry, due this week. It is expected to show a decline in activity in April. Other metals saw a 0.3% increase in aluminum at $2,434.50 per ton. Zinc was down 0.4% at $2,636.50. Lead was up 1.3% at $1,968.50. Tin was down 0.1% at $30,950. Nickel was up 1.1% to $15,710 per ton. (Reporting and editing by Vijay Kishore in Bengaluru)
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Bright Smart, a $362 million Bright Group acquisition by China's Ant Group, enters the brokerage business
Ant Group, a subsidiary of China's ecommerce giant Alibaba Group is purchasing a controlling stake of $362 million in Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group. This marks its first acquisition for a securities broker licence. The companies announced in a Friday joint statement that Ant had agreed to purchase a 50,55% stake in Bright Smart at HK$2.81billion ($362.26m). Bright Smart Chairman Yip Mowlum is selling 857.98 millions shares at HK$3.28 per share to Ant Group's Wealthiness & Prosperity holding, which will have to make a mandatory unconditional cash offer for the entire issued shares. Bright Smart shares nearly doubled to a record-high of HK$6 before closing Monday at HK$5.55, or 82% more than the previous share price of HK$3.05 prior to trading being halted on 24 April. The company's share price rose by the highest percentage in a single day since its listing on August 10, 2010. Hang Seng Index, the benchmark Hang Seng index, was flat on Monday. According to a joint statement, Ant intends Bright Smart to remain listed on the stock exchange. Alibaba controls 33% of Ant, which was founded by Jack Ma. It runs China's ubiquitous Alipay mobile payment app. Bloomberg reported that Ant refinanced its credit line of $6.5 billion in September, and part of this capital was intended to bolster its overseas operations. Chinese authorities cancelled Ant's $37-billion IPO in Shanghai & Hong Kong for 2020. They also cracked down on Ma’s business empire shortly after Ma’s speech in Shanghai, October of that year. He had accused financial watchdogs at the time of stifling innovations. This led to the Chinese regulators fining Ant nearly $1 billion and forcing Ant into a forced restructure. Ant is currently securing a licence for a financial holding, which could help it achieve its IPO. Reporting by Hong Kong Newsroom; Editing Muralikumar Aantharaman and Rachna uppal
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India's UltraTech Cement misses its profit forecasts due to soft prices
UltraTech Cement India's largest cement producer by capacity reported a fourth-quarter profit that was below the market expectation on Monday. This was due to weak pricing and increased costs. LSEG data shows that the company's consolidated profit for the three-month period ended March 31 was 24.82 billion rupees (US$292 million), compared with analysts' estimates of 26.31 trillion rupees. UltraTech's total revenue, including its deal with Kesoram came to 230.63 trillion rupees. This is in line with the average analyst estimate. The total expenses increased by 15%, mostly due to rising raw material and electricity costs. The revenue for the year was 226.69 billion rupiahs. This is 11% more than last year. The favorable spring weather conditions boosted construction activity, which increased demand for cement. This in turn led to price increases by companies. Data from Ambit Capital revealed that, on average, cement prices in the fourth quarter were about 2% lower than they had been a year earlier. UltraTech's volume increased by 17% in the past year, which is within the range of 14%-21% estimated by three brokerages rated highest on LSEG based on their accuracy. $1 = 84.9870 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips in Bengaluru, Varun H K).
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Reliance Results and foreign inflows boost sentiment
Indian shares rose Monday on the back of better-than expected earnings from Reliance Industries, and steady inflows of foreign capital, which helped markets to shrug off a risk-off mood amid India-Pakistan tensions. The BSE Sensex rose 1.27%, or 1.2%, to 80.218, while the Nifty 50 gained 1.2%. Reliance Industries rose 5.26% to a six-month-high, contributing to a third of the gains in the Nifty 50 after analysts upgraded the stock following a fourth-quarter profit beating. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), despite tensions between India, Pakistan and the aftermath of the attack on Kashmir, continued to buy Indian stocks at the end of the session for the eighth time in a row, further boosting sentiment. There was a lot fear about what could happen at the border. The fact that there has been no major incident has given the market some hope," said G Chokkalingam. He is founder and head researcher at Equinomics. Chokkalingam added that besides this, the expectation of a bilateral agreement between India and America, New Delhi’s relative resistance to tariffs in comparison to China, and interest in large-caps with attractive valuations, such as Reliance, could keep markets buoyant. IT closed down 0.2% on Monday. Heavyweight financials with significant exposure to foreign investors rose by 1%. The IT index rose 6.6% in the last week. The mid-cap and small-cap indices both rose by 0.8% and 1.6% respectively. Mahindra & Mahindra, among other stocks rose 2.3%. It was also one of the six top gainers on Nifty after it announced its plans to purchase a majority stake in SML Isuzu at a price of 5.55 billion rupees. SML Isuzu, however, fell 10% because the deal valued shares at a discount of 63.3% to Friday's close. Defence stocks rose 4.1%. An official in the Indian defence ministry confirmed that India had signed a contract with France to purchase 26 Rafale aircraft for $7.41 billion.
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Cemex, the Mexican cement company, has seen its core profits fall due to a weaker local market.
Cemex, the Mexican cement manufacturer, reported a 18% drop in its core earnings in the first quarter of the year on Monday. This was largely due to headwinds in local markets. Cemex's earnings were $601 million in line with expectations, due to the weaker peso and lower volumes in Mexico, according to its filing. Cemex reported that the peso had caused an EBITDA hit of $65 million, and volumes in Mexico dropped due to a rush to complete government infrastructure projects last year before presidential elections. On Monday, the firm reiterated its forecast that it expects to reach an EBITDA of over $3 billion for the full year. Cemex's biggest market in the first quarter was the United States, followed by Europe and the Middle East. Mexico came third. The total sales fell 7%, to $3.65 Billion, which is also in line the LSEG estimate. Higher prices did not fully offset lower volume. Cemex reported that the volume of cement and ready-mixes increased slightly, but aggregates fell 4%. Cemex USA's Jaime Muguiro, who replaced Fernando Gonzalez as Cemex USA's CEO at the start of this month after he retired from his long-standing position as Cemex USA's CEO, has announced these results. In recent years, the firm has shifted their focus to the U.S. and sold off non-core business, including in Guatemala. The Philippines, Dominican Republic, and the Philippines. Bloomberg News reported in February that Cemex had been gauging interest to sell its Colombian unit. Cemex stated on Monday that it is still interested in small to mid-size acquisitions within the United States. Cemex’s net profit almost tripled in the third quarter to $734 millions, thanks to the Dominican Republic deal. Cemex reported that $618 million in its net profit for the quarter was from discontinued operations. (Reporting and editing by Kylie Madry, Lincoln Feast).
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Investors are worried that Big Oil may reduce its share buybacks if crude prices fall
Investors will pay attention to how the falling oil price has increased the risk of dividends and share purchases for the remainder of 2025. Big Oil's efforts to win over Wall Street have been based on returning cash to investors via dividends and stock repurchases. U.S. president Donald Trump's announcements of global tariffs have caused fears of a weaker oil market and a possible recession, leading forecasters to reduce their oil price expectations. If prices were lower, Big Oil would have less money to give to its shareholders. In a research note, Paul Cheng, a Scotiabank analyst, wrote: "We believe the quarterly results will get overshadowed given the turmoil on the commodity markets." Analysts said that investors will be looking for companies that can describe their plans to deal with the sustained decline in oil prices. This could include reducing share repurchases or cutting back on spending. Exxon, and Chevron are the two biggest oil producers in the United States. Both companies will report their earnings on Friday, and they're expected to show a profit increase from the previous quarter. According to LSEG, analysts expect Exxon to earn $1.73 per share and Chevron $2.18. Brent crude oil prices, the global benchmark, averaged $74,98 per barrel in the quarter January-March. This was an increase of 1.3% over the previous quarter. U.S. natural gas prices rose 30%. After Trump announced tariffs against trading partners, oil prices started to plummet on April 2. Analysts have been modeling scenarios in which oil prices will remain around $60 this year, or even fall into the $50s. Brent oil prices averaged $66.79 per barrel so far in April. The U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its price forecast from $74.22 a barrel on average to $67.87 per barrel in 2025. The EIA expects a price average of $61.48 per barrel in 2026. This is down from the previous $68.47. Analysts from four companies have said that Chevron could reduce its buybacks in the event of continued low oil prices. Analysts from four firms said that the second-largest U.S. energy company had previously set annual share repurchases at between $10 billion to $20 billion. The company has announced that it will be cutting costs by up to $3 billion and firing up to 8,000 workers. Analysts said that BP in the UK may also be forced to reduce its share buybacks, increasing pressure on already-underperforming shares. RBC Capital Markets estimates that Chevron needs a Brent price per barrel of $95 to cover dividends, buybacks, and other costs. Exxon requires $88. Prices in the mid-$50s can cover dividends for both companies. Bank of America Global Research analysts forecast that Chevron would repurchase about $11 billion worth of shares in this year. This is at the lower end of their guidance. Exxon will buy back around $13.5 billion below its $20 billion guidance. At least three analysts agreed that Exxon was in a better position to continue dividends and share purchases, citing the surplus cash on its balance sheet and the company's efforts to reduce the cost of producing oil and natural gas. Exxon said that it would repurchase shares worth $20 billion annually until 2026. Last year, the company paid out $16.7 billion as dividends. Exxon-Chevron has not responded to any requests for comments. Jason Gabelman is an analyst with TD Cowen. In a note dated April 11, he wrote that it was unlikely the companies would announce a reduction in capital expenditures in the near future, but this could happen in future quarters. He wrote that spending on green energy projects and shale assets would be the most suitable for cutting. Shale production is more flexible and can be stopped and restarted quickly, while energy conversion efforts are still not material to businesses. Chevron will spend 65% of its 2025 capex on these two segments, while Exxon will spend less than 50%. Sheila Dang, Houston; David Gregorio, editing.
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Poland and US firms sign contract for design of nuclear power plant
After an initial contract expired at the end March, the U.S. companies Westinghouse Electric (now Bechtel) and Polskie Elektrownie Jadrowe(PEJ) signed a new agreement on Monday to continue the design of the first nuclear power station in Poland. Poland wants to reduce its coal reliance and has chosen Westinghouse to build a plant along the Baltic Sea Coast in 2022. Warsaw estimates that the project will cost 192 billion Zloty (about $51 billion). "I think it's the beginning of a long-term cooperation between the United States, Poland and other nations in Europe that will include building future reactors here in Poland as well as with other nations throughout Europe," U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright said at the signing ceremony. Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, said that he had discussed with Wright the future of small reactors as well as cooperation in liquefied gas (LNG). Poland depends on U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to diversify its supply of gas. PEJ must still negotiate an Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC), contract with the builder. However, this requires European Commission approval of public aid worth $60 billion zloty (16 billion dollars) that the project will benefit from. Poland hopes to receive EU approval for the project before the end of this year, so that it can start construction on the first unit in 2028, and finish it in 2036 - four years later than originally planned. The plant is expected to be fully operational in 2040. ($1 = 3.7670 zlotys) (Reporting by Marek Strzelecki, Anna Koper; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
Filings reveal that corporate America has increased security spending in response to the UnitedHealth murder.
U.S. companies have increased their spending on security, but after the murder of UnitedHealth executive Brian Thompson in 2025 that expenditure will rise as more firms see an increase in threats against their top brass.
A proxy statement analysis - a form of annual disclosure to shareholders – revealed that at least 12 S&P 500 firms had flagged an increased security risk.
Walmart, General Motors, American Express, and Broadcom, a chipmaker, have all disclosed increased or new security costs compared to previous years.
Glen Kucera is the president of Allied Universal Security Services, which provides security services to more than 80% Fortune 500 companies.
UnitedHealth disclosed for the first time in its proxy statement of April 21, that it spent $1.7 Million on security for top executives by 2024.
Thompson, the CEO of its insurance unit, was killed in an attack on New York's 4th December. This targeted attack raised concerns among executives about their safety.
Elevance Health, a UnitedHealth competitor, cited "an enhanced security risk environment" as the reason for raising security benefits. Johnson & Johnson and Eli Lilly reported increased expenses, while Walgreens, Johnson & Johnson and Eli Lilly also reported higher costs.
Equilar's executive compensation research firm, Equilar, found that of the 208 S&P500 companies who have filed their annual proxy statements for fiscal 2024 about 31.3% granted a perk of security to at least one named executive officer.
According to the disclosures of about a quarter, this expense has risen from $69180 in 2023 to $94,276, a rise of almost $25,000 from that amount. Equilar reported that in 2022 when 23.1% companies disclosed security expenditures, the median amount was $40,917.
Experts in compensation said that because Thompson's murder occurred late in the calendar year, proxy statements for 2020 will probably show an even larger increase in security expenditure.
David Kokell is the head of Institutional Shareholder Services' U.S. Compensation Research. He said that he expects security-related costs to increase, both in the amount of imputed earnings that are disclosed in proxy statements and also in the frequency of disclosure.
Top Executive Threat
The anger of CEOs, and other executives, can be directed at larger organizations. This leads to increased spending on security even though this is only a small part of the annual expenses for a business.
General Motors announced that CEO Mary Barra, and President Mark Reuss would receive increased security after a recent evaluation.
Broadcom spent $1.37bn on the security of CEO Hock Tan in 2024, but did not provide a number for previous years. Meanwhile, American Express has more than doubled its spending on security benefits since 2023.
Warner Bros Discovery, Edison International, CenterPoint Energy and other utility companies have also increased their protection.
The vast majority of businesses do not disclose their security costs. According to data from The Conference Board, only 18% of S&P500 companies and 5% Russell 3000 disclosed home and personal security as part of CEO compensation.
Analysts said that the full picture of spending growth will not be revealed until September, when more companies submit their reports, or by next year.
Experts said that companies are expanding their security coverage to include more public events and executives. This is in response to the murder of Thompson, who was murdered outside the Midtown Manhattan Hotel where UnitedHealth held an investor conference.
John Gainer, vice-president at TorchStone Global's security firm, stated that the scope of work "has expanded". The board is increasingly involved in public events, such as board or shareholder meetings.
(source: Reuters)