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Japan's puffed up gas stocks contribute to around the world surplus: Kemp

Japan's gas inventories are well above typical for the time of year, part of an around the world surplus in reaction to the duration of exceptionally high prices coming from Russia's intrusion of Ukraine in 2022.

Stocks totaled up to 7.6 billion cubic metres at the end of 2023, just fractionally lower than at the end of 2022, according to main data submitted to the Joint Organisations Data Effort (JODI).

Stocks were almost 1.7 billion cubic metres (+29% or +3.54 basic variances) above the ten-year seasonal average for 2012-2021 ( World gas database, JODI, Feb. 19, 2024).

Japan's winter has actually been just somewhat milder than usual, with temperature levels above the long-term average on 65 of 114 days because the start of November.

Temperatures have actually surpassed the average by simply 0.8 degrees Celsius so far in winter 2023/24, closer to regular than in Europe and The United States And Canada.

Chartbook: Japan gas inventories

However gas usage has been dramatically minimized by the reboot of nuclear units and the deployment of more solar generators.

Gas-fired generation was 16% lower in the first eleven months of 2023 compared with the exact same period of 2020, being up to 262 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) from 314 billion.

Nuclear output rose by 30 billion kWh over the period, and solar by 26 billion kWh.

As an outcome, imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) were lowered by 18% to 87.9 billion cubic metres in 2023 from 107.3 bcm in 2020.

Many LNG is imported on long-lasting agreements connected to oil costs, however spot rates have actually fallen sharply since the middle of 2022.

The decline reflects the high level of domestic stocks however has actually been mostly driven by the much bigger surpluses in North America and Europe.

LNG futures for delivery to Northeast Asia in April 2024 are trading around $8 per million British thermal units, down from practically $18 in late October.

Japan is taking advantage of an around the world glut that is requiring rates lower to curb production in North America and motivate more gas-fired generation and industrial use throughout Europe and Northeast Asia.

Related columns:

- El Niño pushes real U.S. gas rates to multi-decade low ( February 16, 2024

- Europe's inflamed gas stocks drive costs lower (February. 13, 2024)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)