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Stocks rally after Waller's comments, which curb rate hike expectations

The stock markets rose on Thursday, while bond yields dropped as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated a willingness for patience in raising interest rates.

The Japanese yen rose by 2% against U.S. dollars as traders increased their?bets that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates.

Waller said in'remarks at a NEXT Newsmaker Event that if upcoming statistics confirmed that?inflation -pressures are cooling, he would be inclined to advocate for keeping interest rates constant at the next meeting of the U.S. Central Bank.

After the comments, the expectations for an increase in rates at the Fed’s mid-September meetings dropped. The market is now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a hike compared to about 63% the previous session, according CME FedWatch.

In the early part of this week, bond yields around the world jumped due to inflation fears. Oil prices also soared after the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran erupted in its biggest flare-up for the past six months. JD Vance, the U.S. vice president, told reporters on Thursday that the U.S. will not hold talks with Iran until it stops its attacks against commercial shipping in Strait of Hormuz.

Bill Northey is the senior investment director of U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Billings.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill fell 3.8 basis points, on course for its largest fall since August 25 to 4.756%. The yield of the 10-year Treasury note reached 4.818% on Wednesday, its highest level since November 1, 2023. The yield on the 10-year German note was?down by 2 bps earlier at 3.353%.

Investors are waiting for Friday's U.S. jobs report to get more information. The August employment report will likely show that the U.S. The economy added 56,000 new jobs in August, keeping the unemployment rate at 4.1%.

Stocks rose as bond yields fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 624.16 or 1.18% to 53,686.11, while the S&P 500 rose by 81.11 or 1.06% to 7,747.71, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 366.23 or 1.40% to 26,584.06.

MSCI's global stock index rose 11.87 points or 1.04% to 1,154.74. European stocks rose as well, ending a streak of three consecutive sessions of losses. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was up 0.5% to 649.1, recovering from a one-month-low hit on Tuesday.

Chipmaker Broadcom was among the day's losers, with its shares dropping 2.7% after it announced a lower-than-expected revenue forecast for the fourth quarter.

The Yen jumps on rate hike bets

The sudden, sharp rise of the yen in relation to the dollar on Tuesday sparked speculation that Japanese officials were intervening to support the currency. However, analysts pointed out BOJ data which showed no official intervention.

Atsushi Mmura, Japan's top foreign exchange diplomat, warned that recent movements in the yen had not made him feel comfortable.

The markets now price in 75% of the odds that a BOJ increase of 25 basis points will occur this month. Some traders speculate that an even greater increase could be possible. A further hike in October, although not likely, is also a possibility.

The Japanese yen rose last by 2.08% to 155.47 dollars. It is close to the 155.21 yen level, which was the high after an intervention in July.

Waller's remarks exacerbated the U.S. Dollar's losses. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies, dropped 0.69% at 98.91. However, the euro rose 0.41% to $1.1634.

John Williams, the New York Fed president, said that rising long-term bonds yields were not indicative of inflation fears but rather a strong economy. He added that he is still gathering information for his next monetary decision.

Bruce Zaro is the managing director of Granite Wealth Management, Plymouth, Massachusetts.

"You've got the Fed governors coming out to voice their opinions, in the absence (of Fed Chair Kevin) Warsh's forward guidance. You have hedge fund managers who are saying that, contrary to what the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said, this is a good time to buy bonds because debt levels don't appear to be an issue.

Oil prices were mixed in commodities. Brent crude futures fell 11 cents or 0.12% to settle $95.52 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures rose 29 cents or 0.32% to settle $91.30. Both contracts reached six-week highs during the session.

Spot gold increased 1.99% to $4473.40 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)