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Compass is poised Compass to end Brazil's almost five-year IPO rut
Compass Gas e Energia SA is expected to price its initial public offer on Thursday. This will end a 'nearly 5-year drought' of IPOs in Brazil, caused by high interest rates. According to two people familiarized with the transaction, the sale of 89.3 millions shares by the existing shareholders of the natural-gas distributor could generate around 3 billion Reis ($600 Million). One of the people said that by early afternoon on Thursday, the orders were almost three times larger than the offer. The second source, however, added that despite the high demand, pricing could be at the lower end, at 28 Reais per share. The price range for the offering was 28 to 35 reais per share. A sale at the upper end would imply a valuation around 25 billion reais. If the offering is completed as planned, Compass will be the first IPO to take place on the Brazilian stock exchange since 2021 when Raizen, which was the largest sugar producer in the world, went public. Compass's offer fits in with Cosan’s larger push to sell assets, and reduce leverage. High interest rates have been a factor in the group's poor results. One person said that Cosan would use approximately 75% of its IPO proceeds to pay off debt. Cosan attempted an IPO in 2020, but shelved it due to unfavorable markets conditions. Despite a?prolonged local IPO drought?, Brazilian companies such as Picpay, a digital banking company owned by the 'Batista Family, and fintech Agibank?have?launched their shares on U.S. markets. Despite the high interest rates, and concerns about Brazil's fiscal stability, several companies have been unable to go public. Reporting by Luciana Magnalhaes, Editing by Cynthia Osterman
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Brazil's trade surplus in April jumps 38% due to a rise in oil and soy exports
Brazil's trade surplus in April jumped 37.5% from a year earlier to $10.5 billion. This was a record for that month. The government revealed the data on Thursday. It was boosted by the strong shipments of important commodities such as soybeans, crude oils, iron ore, and beef. However, the result was lower than the median estimate of $10.9 billion in an economist's poll. According to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, exports increased?14.3% compared to a year ago, to $34.1 billion. Exports rose by 18.8% in value, with soybeans, crude oils, iron ore, and beef all increasing by 10.6% in value. Imports rose 6.2% to $23.6 billion in April. Brazil's first-quarter trade surplus increased by?43.5%, to $24.8 billion. Analysts are revising up their predictions for the country's?trade surplus?this coming year due to the pressure on oil prices caused by the?U.S. and Israel war against Iran. Brazil is Latin America's biggest economy and an agricultural powerhouse. It also happens to be a net oil exporter. Last month, the government forecast a trade surplus in 2026 of $72.1 billion. However, it noted that the estimate did not factor in the effect of higher oil prices throughout the remainder of the year. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao; Marcela Ayres)
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Gold as US-Iran hopes for peace ease inflation concerns
Gold prices rose on Thursday, boosted by optimism about a 'potential U.S. Iran peace deal.' This helped ease inflation concerns and the 'interest rates remained high. Gold spot was up 0.3% to $4,700.98 an ounce at 1:53 pm EDT (1753 GMT) after reaching a session high earlier. U.S. Gold Futures closed 0.4% higher, at $4.710.90. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist with RJO Futures. He said that if the ceasefire held, and we could put this war to rest, then I could see gold pushing to $5,000/oz. The market is watching the Middle East situation as well as what the U.S. Federal Reserve will do." Sources and officials have said that the U.S. is edging closer to an agreement with Iran on a temporary ceasefire. Tehran has been reviewing a plan?that would end the war but leave unresolved the most controversial issues. Oil has reversed its course and become positive. The Wall Street Journal reported that a senior Iranian official stated that Iran would not permit the U.S. reopening the Strait of Hormuz if it had an "unrealistic plan". Press TV, Iran's national broadcaster was cited by the Wall Street Journal. Inflation is often a result of rising energy costs. In this scenario, policymakers might be less likely to reduce interest rates in order to control price pressures. Gold, despite its role as a hedge against inflation, becomes less appealing?in an environment with higher rates because it does not offer a yield. TD Securities stated in a report that there is a way to get gold above $5,200/oz once the conflict and inflation pressures caused by oil fade. It said that a pivot towards the Fed's mandate of maximum employment, lower?yields, and a softening U.S. Dollar, as well as renewed investor and central bank demand, could reignite the bull market. The markets are waiting for the U.S. monthly employment report to be released on Friday in order to determine how the Fed will move forward this year with its monetary policy. Data showed that China's central banks piled up gold for the eighteenth consecutive month in April. Silver spot rose 2.6%, to $79.32 after reaching its highest level since April 17. Palladium dropped 2.5%, to $1,498.86, while platinum fell 1.2%, at $2,036.28. Ashitha Shivprasad reported from Bengaluru, and Barbara Lewis edited the story.
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Reporting shows that oil-price wagers before the Iran war news totaled $7 billion.
According to traders, analysts and exchange data, there were a series of market bets that totalled up to $7 billion in March and April, spread over multiple exchanges and types of fuels and derivatives, just before Donald Trump made major announcements about Iran policy. This is a size that exceeds the $2.6 billion in reported wagers, which has already caused the U.S. The administration warned staff not to use nonpublic information in order to gain financial advantage. A person with knowledge of the matter said in April that the U.S. Commodity?Trading?? Commission (CFTC) was investigating. However, the CFTC is yet to confirm a formal investigation is underway. They could not determine who made the bets or if they originated in America or elsewhere. The bets included short positions or bets on falling prices for derivatives such as ICE, CME, crude, diesel, and gasoline futures. Bets were placed on the Intercontinental Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange, two major exchanges which host benchmark futures trading for global oil and fuels. Both exchanges declined comment. A source with knowledge of the situation said that the CME is looking into the trades. Legal experts and legislators have called for the regulator to investigate whether these well-timed transactions were based on leaks or inside information. On March 23, traders spotted the first unusual trades. The trades were made just minutes before Trump announced that he would delay his threatened attack on Iranian power infrastructure. This triggered a fall in oil prices. On April 7, Trump announced a truce with Iran, which triggered a drop of up to 15% in benchmark ICE Brent Futures. On April 17, Trump and Iranian officials discussed reopening Strait of Hormuz. Then, on April 21, Trump extended the ceasefire. Other media reported on?those tradings on the two most active front-month contracts of the global benchmarks Brent and West Texas Intermediate. Initial calculations put the value of these bets at $2.6 billion for those four days between March and April. Requests for comment from the U.S. Justice Department and White House were not immediately answered. A further analysis of the trading data for exchanges and contracts revealed that traders placed similar bets on the exact same dates and at the exact same times for European Diesel and U.S. Gasoline Futures, as well as for longer-dated 'contracts for Brent or WTI. This brings the total up to about $7 billion, according to calculations. Short selling or a sell bet is when the person who executes the trade borrows a derivative from the counterparty and sells it, then buys it cheaper later, when the price drops, while keeping the profit. The oil price dropped by more than 10% on March 23, April 7, 17, and 21. Calculations show that, depending on when the bets were made, a $7 billion short seller could have made millions in profit. Adi Imsirovic from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and an experienced oil trader, says that these trades appear "well-informed" because they were made before major announcements. He added that U.S. authorities such as the CFTC can access exchange data in order to track who made the trades, and to investigate if they choose to. ABC reported on Thursday that the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating $2.6 billion worth of?oil trading related to the Iran War. The DOJ did not respond to requests for comment. In March, the CFTC's Enforcement Director said that his agency was "watching" speculation about insider trading on CFTC-regulated market. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Let's stick to the facts. The volume was unusual. The volumes were unusually high. They were in advance of important announcements", said Jorge Montepeque, from Onyx Capital Group. He?helped to design the modern system for setting oil prices by Platts pricing agency in the 1990s. Brent crude, low-sulphur gasoline, and West Texas Intermediate crude are traded on the Intercontinental Exchange. West Texas Intermediate crude, and gasoline futures, however, are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), which is owned by CME Group. Trump announced at 1105 GMT on March 23 that he would delay the threatened attack against Iranian power infrastructure. LSEG data indicates that traders bet on 20,000 Brent and WTI contracts between 1049 and1050 GMT. The sales were spread over the first,'second and third-month contracts worth about $1.35 billion. In addition, $122 million was spent on ICE Gasoil - Diesel - Futures, and $81 million in U.S. gas futures, totaling $2.2 billion. Robert Frenchman is a New York lawyer who has worked in white-collar crimes and insider trading cases. Trump's ceasefire announcement on March 23 triggered a drop in crude futures as high as 15%. This was one of the biggest intraday drops ever recorded. The announcement also sent gasoline and gasoil prices down by around 12%. Between 1944 and 1945 GMT on April 7, there were 2,12 billion dollars worth of sell orders for oil and gasoline. This was well after the market had settled and at a time where volumes are typically low. Trump announced minutes later a ceasefire of two weeks with Iran. Nearly $2 billion worth of Brent, WTI and gasoil futures, as well as gasoline, were sold on April 17 at 1224-1225 GMT. This was just minutes before Iranian Foreign Ministry Abbas Araqchi announced that Hormuz will reopen. Trump and U.S. officials then posted multiple posts to social media. On April 21, about $830 million in Brent and WTI futures contracts were sold only 15 minutes before Trump extended his ceasefire. (Editing by David Gregorio and Simon Webb; Additional reporting by Alun Price, Alex Lawler, and Robert Harvey in London as well as Michelle Price in Washington.
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Reporting shows that oil-price wagers before the Iran war news totaled $7 billion.
According to analysts, traders and market experts, there were a series of well-timed "market bets" on falling oil prices that totaled $7 billion between March and April, spread across different exchanges, types of fuel, and derivatives, just before Donald Trump's major announcements about Iran policy. The amount of the bets exceeds previous reported wagers totaling $2.6 billion. This has already led to the U.S. Administration to warn staff against using confidential information to their financial advantage. A 'person familiar with this matter' told a CFTC official in April that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is conducting an investigation. However, the CFTC is yet to confirm a sleuth is under way. They could not determine who made the bets or if they originated in America. These included short positions (or bets on falling prices) for derivatives such as ICE, CME, crude, diesel, and?gasoline. Bets were placed on two major exchanges: Intercontinental Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Both exchanges declined comment. A source with knowledge of the situation said that the CME is looking into the trades. The first unusual trades were noticed by traders on 23 March. Minutes before Trump announced that he would delay his threatened attack on Iranian power infrastructure and cause an oil price drop, traders executed the trades. On April 7, the same pattern was repeated before Trump announced a truce with Iran, which triggered a?fall of up to 15% in benchmark ICE Brent Futures. The same pattern repeated on April 17, when Iranian officials spoke with Trump about reopening Strait of Hormuz. And again on the 21st of April, when Trump extended the ceasefire. Other media reported these trades. The bets were placed on the most actively traded contracts of the front-month contracts Brent and West Texas intermediate. Initial calculations show that the value of these bets on?those four days in March and?April was around $2.6 billion. The U.S. Justice Department and CFTC did not respond immediately to requests for comments. (Alun John, Alex Lawler, Robert Harvey and Michelle Price contributed additional reporting from London and Washington. Simon Webb and David Gregorio edited the story.
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Sources: Barrick Contractor to leave Mali and lay off 600 people
Three sources claim that the largest contractor of Barrick Mining’s Loulo-Gounkoto Gold Complex in Mali has closed operations and laid off more than 600 employees. This is a new sign the Canadian miner wants to reduce its exposure to high-risk assets. Sources familiar with the situation said that the move was prompted by a sluggish investment and production at the complex. Barrick had taken control of the complex from Malian administrators after a standoff over taxes and ownership. First and second sources said Barrick did not intend to renew its contract with Gounkoto Mining Services in 2026. They added that it was unclear if it would do so for 2027. The two sources added that GMS, which manages extraction at Gounkoto's open-pit mining and the Yalea North mine in South Africa, has sent termination letters to over 600 workers who are serving their notice following mandatory medical examinations. Since Barrick took control of the mines in December, neither mine has resumed production. Barrick's and GMS parent company DTP didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. The Mali mines ministry spokesperson said that it could not comment on the matter as this was an "internal issue". Sources say that Loulo Gounkoto's departure and the challenges he faces are not connected to the Mali security threats posed by insurgent groups. Their recent large-scale attacks occurred far away from the complex. INVESTMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATEST PART OF THIS YEAR. The Loulo Gounkoto Complex is one of Africa's largest gold mines. Mali's output of gold fell by 23% in the past year due largely to the suspension of mining. First source: Barrick's 2026 production target for the complex has been lowered and the mine?Gounkoto is not included in the plans for this year. Sources said that the complex is expected to produce about 103,000 ounces in the second quarter - far below the average production before the standoff. Data seen by us show that the figures still represent an increase from levels under temporary administration. The first source stated that GMS's withdrawal is a reflection of weak investment, and in some cases deteriorating infrastructure. The first and third sources both said that investment is expected to increase later in the year. They said that expatriate workers, who left the country more than a month ago, during the dispute, are expected to return by the second quarter. According to a source, while?Gounkoto & Yalea North are still idle, Baboto & Gara West have resumed operation. Baboto and Gara West are operated by local companies Corica, and Nieta Mining. Reporting by TiemokoDiallo and Portie Crowe. Maxwell Akalaare Adombila (Editing), Veronica Brown, Mark Potter and Mark Potter
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Report: Trump administration invites CEOs of Nvidia and Apple to China on Trump's trip
Semafor reported that the Trump administration has invited CEOs of Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, Boeing, and other large 'companies' to join him on his trip to China next week. According to the report, executives from Qualcomm, Blackstone Citigroup and Visa were also present. Citigroup, Visa, Nvidia and Apple did not respond immediately to a request for comment. Qualcomm confirmed the invitation, but declined to provide any further comment. Blackstone and Boeing declined comment. As Donald Trump prepares to visit 'Beijing' next week for a meeting with China's leader Xi Jinping, the media is buzzing about possible deals. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said in April that Boeing was counting on Trump to unlock a much-anticipated?major Chinese order. China and the U.S. aircraft manufacturer have been in 'prolonged discussions' for a deal which, according to industry sources, could include 500 737 MAX plus dozens widebody jets. This would be China's first significant?Boeing purchase since 2017. Any announcement of this order will be viewed as an 'important win' for the leaders' summit.
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Argentina Mining Chamber urges an extension of investment incentives
The head of Argentina's mining chamber said Thursday that the flagship investment incentive program for large projects, which currently has a 2027 deadline, should be extended. He argued the program was key to unlocking billions in planned investments. Roberto Cacciola said that the Incentive Regime for Large Investments, or RIGI, has helped to attract capital into the mining sector. The RIGI offers tax, currency, and legal stability advantages for projects valued at more than $200,000,000. Cacciola suggested that the scheme be expanded to include smaller projects which are important in creating jobs and supporting local supply chains. Cacciola told the audience at the Expo San Juan Mining Conference that it would be a mistake not to expand the project. Argentine president Javier Milei announced on X Thursday that he will send to Congress a "Super RIGI law" to promote investments in new sectors. He did not provide any further details. Cacciola stated that Argentina's mining industry is expected to attract about $2 billion of investment this year. This will be led by BHP's $800 millions push into the Vicuna Copper Development with partner Lundin Mining. Many of these investments were?encouraged by RIGI. However, the government has stated that this program is only temporary. Luis Lucero, the mining secretary, recently said that authorities do not plan to extend the deadline for applications. The current deadline is July 2027. Thirteen more projects are being reviewed. Lucero stated that the total submitted and approved projects amounts to more than 50 billion dollars. ELECTORAL RISK Analysts say that companies will likely accelerate their applications in anticipation of Argentina's presidential election in 2027. Marcelo J. Garcia, of Horizon Engage consultancy, said. Cacciola stated that multinational mining companies are already concerned about the continuity of policy. Cacciola said that the parent companies are "naturally" concerned about it. Argentina's economic reforms under Milei have stabilized key indicators, boosted export-oriented industries such as mining and also affected consumption, domestic demand, and real wages. This has impacted the government's reputation. Garcia stated that the interest of investors in Argentina's mining industry remains high. He said, "They are aware that the road will not be straight." They could adjust to a change in conditions, if the overall course of promoting mine development is not changed.
Stocks dip, oil choppy as US-Iran peace deal remains elusive
U.S. stocks and European oil prices fluctuated, but little changed on Thursday following a report that Iran wouldn't allow the United States reopening the Strait of Hormuz if it had an "unrealistic plan." Wall Street's major stock indices have retreated slightly from their previous session's multiple records, largely due to strong chipmaker earnings. The S&P fell by 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.1%. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.5%. Sources and officials reported on Thursday that the United States and Iran had been edging towards a temporary and limited agreement to end their war. The draft framework would have stopped the fighting, but left the most contentious questions unresolved. In normal times, a fifth of all oil and liquefied gas in the world passes through the Strait of?Hormuz.
The STOXX Europe 600 index finished lower by 1.1%, after a 2.2% jump on Wednesday. Meanwhile, MSCI's Asia-Pacific broadest stock market index outside Japan reached a new all-time record, with a 1.6% gain. Japan's Nikkei has crossed 62,000 points for the first.
"A Good Direction"
Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, said that while the Middle East situation is uncertain, "the market momentum is moving in a positive direction" and they have taken notice of it.
Chaar stated that the oil price has fallen from its peak, which relieves pressure on bond and yield curves. This is good news for equity valuations and currencies.
Chaar said that a strong earnings season, coupled with a macroeconomic climate that was relatively robust, contributed to the positive mood in the market.
The MSCI All-Country World Index remained at record highs, despite a slight?downturn of 0.1%. Brent crude dropped about 0.7%, to $100.56 per barrel. It had fallen nearly 8% Wednesday.
Brent remains around 40% higher than its level in late February, when the war started, despite the recent drop. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are surging, a reminder that energy costs continue putting pressure on the global economic system. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose by 3.4 basis point to 4.388%.
Investec's market strategists said in a Thursday note that the oil inventory drawdowns are reaching a breaking point.
In March, the global market was shook by a rocketing oil price. However, a fragile ceasefire in Syria and the prospect of a settlement have sparked a rally that is fueled by strong earnings reports from tech companies.
S&P Companies Set for Robust Profit Growth S&P 500 companies on track to achieve their'strongest profit growth since more than four years. Meanwhile, Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC have boosted the positive tone in Asia with their dazzling results.
Manish Kabra is a Societe Generale market strategist. He wrote in a Thursday client note that "U.S. earnings confirmed a broad-based profits boom. Record EPS (earnings-per-share) beats, record-high margins, and sharply?upgraded growth expectations for '26" Investors are awaiting the U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Report on Friday. According to a survey, jobs should have risen by 62,000 in April after rebounding by 178,000 in March.
The euro was last seen at $1.175. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency in relation to six other currencies, was unchanged. The yen remains a focal point after recent spikes prompted speculation on the market that Japan intervened in support of the battered currency.
The yen fell 0.2% to 156.66 dollars, after hitting a 10-week-high of 155 on Tuesday.
(source: Reuters)