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Armenian PM: Trump-backed project to combine energy systems between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Armenia and Azerbaijan are integrating their energy systems in order to facilitate imports and exports of electricity, the Armenian prime minister said on Wednesday. In his address to parliament, Prime Minister Nikol Pahinyan did not give a timeline or any specifics. He said that the move was a part of a strategic transit corridor planned through the South Caucasus, known as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. Armenia and Azerbaijan fought for almost four decades over the mountainous area of Nagorno Karabakh, and finally reached an agreement. Peace agreement brokered by the U.S. After meeting Donald Trump in the White House, I was able to get a job at the White House. The TRIPP?project, as proposed, would cross southern Armenia to give Azerbaijan a route directly to its exclave Nakhchivan?and then to Turkey. Baku is a close ally of Turkey. Armenia will give the United States a share of 74% in the TRIPP 'Development company for 49 years, and keep the rest. This was revealed in a joint.statement issued after a meeting between Armenian Foreign Minister and U.S. Sec. of State Marco Rubio earlier this month in Washington. Under the deal, the U.S. firm would have exclusive rights to develop the Corridor and could extend it for another 50 years. Armenia's equity stake in the company would then rise to 49 percent. As part of the deal, Yerevan will retain full sovereignty over its borders and customs, as well as taxation, security, and taxation. The project involves?new and updated rail infrastructure?, oil and natural gas pipelines?, and fibre optic cables?crisscrossing South Caucasus?, a strategically important region situated between Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Azerbaijan has begun sending Gasoline shipments After a pause of?some three decades, the two countries have resumed diplomatic relations. However, no peace agreement has yet been signed. Azerbaijan demands that Armenia amend its constitution preamble which Baku claims implicitly claims Azerbaijani territories. Pashinyan has called for an amendment to the constitution in a referendum, but no date has yet been announced. Reporting by Lucy Papachristou, Maxim Rodionov and Lucy Papachristou. Writing by Lucy Papachristou. Editing by Mark Trevelyan.
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As frustrations over the state's response mount, communities in Chile that have been ravaged by fires pull together.
The fires that raged near Concepcion, a city in southern Chile, were putting out by Wednesday morning. Cloudy skies and humid air brought cooler temperatures to coastal areas after extreme heat for days. The smoke plumes lingered and it was expected that the death toll would rise, as the police and state coroner continued to search for bodies inside apartment blocks damaged by fire. Residents began to clear debris and rebuild with the help of neighbors and volunteers. Carlos Lopez, city councillor of nearby Cobquecura gathered money, nails and wood as well as cement and other construction materials. With the help of local businesses, Carlos Lopez delivered these items by truck to Punta de Parra. This was one of the worst-hit areas, where dozens of houses were destroyed. Residents saw 'dreams disappear' Lopez said, "We felt the desperation of the situation and we put our hands on our hearts." Doralisa Silva (34), a local resident, was unable to get wood from the truck, but Celeste, her daughter of two years, received jackets and toys. They were sheltered under metal sheets propped up against a remaining cement wall. Silva stated that it was "chaotic and painful" to see all of your dreams vanish overnight. The fire broke out and Silva attempted to escape the town with daughter, but the exits were covered. She was forced to seek refuge in a field near their house. Silva and the other residents affected by the floods praised their community's help, but criticised what they called a lack in support from national government. Nancy Barrientos (44), a neighbor, said, "All of the help we've received has come from people who have delivered food, tents or clear information from the authorities." Mayor Criticizes Slow Response Rodrigo Vera said that local governments are restoring basic services, such as electricity, but also echoed the criticisms of a "slow" national response. Vera stated that it took 12 hours for an emergency to be declared. This delay has hindered the deployment of firefighting and military resources. "Everything was slow. "The pain of the people is not tomorrow but yesterday." The incoming president Gabriel Boric, who is leaving office in a few days, visited Concepcion but did not visit the communities that were destroyed because of security concerns. Boric told Temuco residents on Tuesday that reconstruction will begin after the search for victims is complete, and that emergency housing and financial assistance are being started. Boric stated that "we are working as fast as possible, but processes must be followed." His office didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Boric's Government was criticized by critics for its slow reconstruction after the Valparaiso fires of 2024. Jose Antonio Kast will take office as president on 11 March. He has promised to give priority to rebuilding communities that have been affected by fires. "People need food and a roof. Vera stated that this requires a new rhythm and political will.
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Andy Home: US aluminium consumers are paying the rising cost of tariffs.
The price of physical aluminium in the United States is now 68% higher than that on the London Metal Exchange. It is obvious that this is a direct result of President Donald Trump increasing import tariffs in March from 10% to 25 % and then again in June to 50 %. The "all-in price" of aluminum is now above $5,000 per metric tonne, due to the additional $560 that the physical delivery premium in the Midwest U.S. adds to the implied tariff costs. Metals are in short supply across many industries, from construction to packaging and automotive. On paper, the record-high premium for U.S. deliveries should bring in much needed supply. However, in reality, the situation may not be as simple. Imports down, Stocks shrink After a long period of decline, which saw only four smelters operating, tariffs were intended to stimulate the domestic primary aluminum production. Century Aluminum has only restarted 50,000 tons at its Mt. Holly plant located in South Carolina. By June, the smelter should be back to its full capacity. Even if they are able to compete with Big Tech in the long-term for power supplies, there are still several years before these projects can produce their first metal. The U.S. is still dependent on primary metal imports, which are falling. Volumes fell by 14% between 2024 and the first 10 month of 2025. Around May of last year, Canada, historically, the biggest supplier to the U.S. Market, began?diverting its shipments to Europe. According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics, between May and October, the Netherlands exported 225,000 tons of metal, Italy 89,000 tons, and Poland 29,000 tons. The U.S. primary metal stocks have been declining. According to Harbor Aluminum and Wittsend Commodity Advisors, the?short period between tariff increases didn't permit much preemptive inventory building. In-country inventories have shrunk, from 750,000 tones at the beginning of 2025, to below 300,000. The increased U.S. premium should be a warning sign that the country is in need of more aluminum. Cross-Atlantic Competition However, the problem for U.S. purchasers is that Europe also lacks aluminium. The European duty-paid premiums over LME cash have risen from less than $200 per ton in June to more than $340 per ton. Triple supply cuts are putting pressure on the region. South32's decision, due to high electricity prices, to mothball?Mozal Aluminium Smelter in Mozambique removes an important supplier for the European market. A second supplier, the Grundartangi Smelter in Iceland owned by Century Aluminum, reduced production by two thirds due to an?equipment breakdown' in late October. The recovery will take approximately 11-12 months. In line with the 16th package of sanctions from the European Union, all imports of Russian metal will be stopped this year. The European Union granted European buyers a grace period of one year to phase out the imports. This grace period expires on next month. Carbon Border Adjustment (CBAM) is also a factor that has contributed to the rise in local premiums. This mechanism, which was implemented this month by Europe, raises import prices for products with a higher carbon footprint. CAPPED SUPPLY Traders used to simply buy up LME stock and ship them to the United States in order to profit from premium spikes. However, Russian metal is a large part of LME tonnage registered, 58% at the end of December. It cannot be imported into the U.S. due to sanctions. There is also much less aluminum in LME's warehouses today than there was in the past when the global market exhibited a persistent oversupply. The total LME stock, both registered and stored in shadows off-warrant, was 669,000 tonnes at the end of 2025, down 331,000 tons from the beginning of the year. This speaks to structural changes that are taking place in the global marketplace. Chinese operators have now reached or are very near the maximum output mandated by the government. According to the International Aluminium Institute, Chinese production growth has slowed down from 4% in 2024 to only 2% last Year. Yet, smelter margins are highly profitable. The price of aluminium has been increasing, but the price of alumina, an intermediate product has plummeted. This is the kind of combination that once would have triggered a rush to restart and build new capacity, but no longer. China imports more and more primary metal. The volume of metals imported by China increased 19% on an annual basis in the first eleven months of 2025. A large portion of the inbound volume came from Russia. Due to sanctions, Russia has shifted away from Western buyers. China's semi-manufactured products exports fell by 11% during the same time period. This is due to the end of the tax exemption on outbound shipments, which will take place in December 2024. Global markets are tightening. This process is complicated by the simultaneous fragmentation of prices between regions. FLOW-THROUGH If the impact of tariffs on U.S. prices were to be isolated, physical arbitrage would quickly resolve it. But it isn't. The physical aluminium industry is a complex one, and there are many moving parts. Right now they are all working together to reduce supply. It is not good news for consumers that the price of aluminum in the U.S. has increased. The Trump administration’s August extension of tariffs of 50% to a broad spectrum of aluminum products has kept midstream processing companies onside, but also serves to accelerate the transfer of higher primary metal prices to the ultimate purchaser. Imports must pick up quickly or U.S. consumer will be in for a surprise. Andy Home is an author and columnist. These opinions are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. 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Trump will speed up the approval of permits for deep sea mining in international waters
The Trump administration will push ahead with its effort on Wednesday to encourage U.S. deep sea exploration by speeding up?permitting companies that are hunting for vital minerals in international waters. This move is likely to raise environmental and legal concerns. This effort could 'help?spark?a U.S. led scramble to find resources on the deep seabed, before global standards for the relatively new techniques of mining are in place. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has finalized a rule that follows an executive order signed by U.S. president Donald Trump. This executive order was intended to bolster the deep-sea?mining?industry in a bid to counter China's control over critical metals. According to a government press release, the U.S. officials will consolidate licensing and permits into a single, ostensibly faster review. The Metals Company, a Canadian mining company, began the process of obtaining such exploration licenses and permits last year. This was a step forward in its bid to be the first to receive approval for developing deep-sea minerals. Some parts of the Pacific Ocean, and elsewhere, are believed to have large amounts of polymetallic nodules, which are potato-shaped rocks filled with building blocks for electric vehicles and electronic devices, such as nickel, cobalt, and copper. There are still questions about the future of regulation in the industry. Trump's executive order instructed his administration to speed up mining permits issued under the Deep Oceanbed Hard Minerals Resources Act?of 1980, and to set up a process to issue permits along the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf. Since years, the International Seabed Authority (created by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea which the U.S. does not have ratified) has been examining standards for deep-sea mines in international waters. It hasn't formalized the standards because of disagreements over the acceptable levels for dust, noise and any other factors from this practice. Companies are lining up for U.S. waters to mine. Supporters of deep-sea mining have argued that the practice will reduce the need for large land-based mining operations, which are not always popular with the host communities. Environmental groups have demanded that the activities be banned because they warn that industrial operations at the ocean's bottom could lead to irreversible biodiversity losses. Trevor Hunnicutt, Thomas Derpinghaus and Trevor Hunnicutt report.
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Sources say that India's Reliance will buy Russian oil compliant with sanctions in February and march.
Four sources with knowledge of the matter have confirmed that India's Reliance industries Ltd, the operator of the largest refinery in the world, will'receive' sanctions-compliant Russian crude oil between February and March, after a one month pause. Reliance received its last shipment of Russian crude in December, after it secured a U.S. concession allowing it to extend the deadline for ending business with Rosneft (a Russian oil company sanctioned by the U.S. government) beyond November 21. Sources said that Reliance, like other Indian refiners will purchase Russian oil from non sanctioned sellers. They did not elaborate on how many cargoes the refiner had booked for February and March. The private refinery has not yet confirmed if it will continue to purchase Russian oil after March. Reliance didn't respond to an email asking for a comment. REFINERS BOOST MIDDLE-EAST CRUDE IMPORTS Sources said that despite Reliance's return to India, India's total Russian oil imports will?remain subdued throughout February and March. Reliance imported Russian crude as part of a long-term contract with Rosneft. The agreement was for 500,000 barrels a day (bpd), for its 1.4million bpd Jamnagar complex in Gujarat. The European Union announced that it would not accept fuel produced by refineries which received or processed Russian oil for 60 days before the date of the bill of lading. Reliance said that it would process cargoes arriving after November 20,?at the 660,000 barrels-per-day plant in India, which allows it to continue to sell fuels to the EU through its 704,000 barrels-per-day export-oriented refinery. India's refiners, who became the largest buyers of Russian seaborne crude after a war broke out in Ukraine in 2022, have re-calibrated their crude import strategies and are increasing Middle Eastern purchases, as they move away from Russia. Srinivas T., Chief Operating Officer, Refinery and Marketing, Reliance, stated last week that "we have faced instances when sanctions were imposed suddenly and had to cutback." He said that Reliance had increased its purchases of oil from other national companies in advance to avoid disruptions on the spot market. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise, journalists in Moscow)
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Import duty hikes have boosted the premiums on gold and silver in India
The gold premiums in India surpassed $100 per ounce for the first in over a decade on Wednesday, and?silver prices reached a new record high as traders priced possible curbs?on precious metal imports in order to strengthen the rupee. Bullion dealers have charged the highest premium since May 2014, up to $112 an ounce above official domestic gold prices. This includes 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes. Dealers offered discounts of up to 12 dollars last week. Silver premiums have risen to $8 an ounce. This is higher than the previous high of $5 in October. India is the world's second largest gold consumer and the biggest silver consumer. The rupee fell to a new record low of 91.7425 per dollar on Wednesday. Chanda Venkatesh is the managing director of CapsGold, a bullion dealer based in Hyderabad. The traders have increased their prices in anticipation of the price hike. Nirmala Sitharaman, Finance Minister of India is scheduled to present the Union Budget 2026/27 on February 1, 2019. Nirmala Sitharaman, Finance Minister of India will?present the Union Budget for 2026/27?on February 1. India imports most of the gold and silver it needs, and the demand has risen in recent months. This has increased the trade deficit, and put pressure on the rupee. Gold prices in the country reached a new record of 158.339 rupees for 10 grams. Silver also surged, reaching a record high of 335.521. "Traders who had short positions were forced to close them as the prices rose," said Prithviraj?Kothari, President of India Bullion and?Juwellers 'Association (IBJA). Kothari says that while jewellery demand has declined, the investment in coins and bars as well as exchange-traded fund investments have surged. "Supply is not keeping up." This shortage is causing sellers of imports to increase their prices, said Chirag Thakkar. Surendra Mehta is the secretary of IBJA. He said that the industry is worried that government could take steps to limit bank funding that jewellers use for gold and silver imported. This would also increase premiums on these metals. The Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry has not responded to a comment request immediately. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Additional reporting by Aftab Ahmad; Reporting by Rajendra J. Jadhav)
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Saudi Humain receives up to $1,2 billion to expand AI infrastructure
Saudi Arabia's National Infrastructure Fund and Humain - the artificial intelligence company of the Kingdom - announced on Wednesday that they had reached a financing deal of up to $1.2 billion. The agreement is intended to'support the expansion' of AI and digital technology in the country. According to a press release, the agreement sets out non-binding terms of financing for the development up to 250 Megawatts of AI data centre capacity to support Humain’s customers. It was announced in Davos, Switzerland. As part of an 'overall effort' to diversify economic activity and income sources away from hydrocarbons, the world's largest oil exporter wants to speed up its AI development in order to capitalize on the massive?demand? for computing power. Humain, which was established last year, and is owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), will lead efforts in this direction. Humain has secured several agreements, including with Elon Musk’s xAI or Blackstone-backed AirTrunk to build data centres in the country. It is aiming for a 6 gigawatt capacity by 2034. Infra - part of Saudi Arabia’s National Development Fund - and Humain have also agreed to jointly explore the possibility of a data centre AI investment platform. This will help local and global institutional investors to support Humain’s AI strategy.
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Indian refiners change oil strategy, trim Russian purchases and focus on the Middle East
Indian refiners have redrawn their crude import strategies in order to move away from top supplier Russia, and increase imports from the Middle East. This could?help New Delhi to clinch a deal with the United States for lower tariffs. India became the largest buyer of discounted Russian crude oil after the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022. However, the trade was met with a backlash by Western nations who targeted Russia's energy industry with sanctions. Middle East producers are keeping global markets well-supplied with the help of higher production quotas set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. This has a softer impact on the prices. INDIA REFINERS CUT BACK RUSSIAN BUYS Three sources in the refining industry said that Indian refiners had begun to reduce their Russian oil purchases after a discussion at a government-sponsored meeting aimed at accelerating a U.S. India trade agreement. Sources told us this month that the Oil Ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell collects 'weekly' data on refiners buying U.S. and Russian crude. Sources who requested anonymity said that the state refiner Bharat Oil?Corp has awarded Trafigura one-year tenders for the purchase of Iraqi Basrah crude and Omani crude. It is also in the market to purchase Murban oil, which comes from the United Arab Emirates, under another tender. Two traders said that Trafigura would supply four cargoes per quarter of Oman crude at a price 75 cents below Dubai's quotes, and one parcel of Basrah Medium for a 40-cents discount on the official selling price of this grade. BPCL, as well as the Indian oil ministry, did not respond to comments. DOUBLING IMPORT TARIFFS? A PUNISHMENT for RUSSIA BUYS Last year, the United States, which was already trying to reduce its trade deficit with India doubled import tariffs on Indian goods by 50% to punish them for their heavy purchases of Russian crude oil. Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals, as well as private refiners HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd. have stopped purchasing Russian oil. Trade data shows that India's Russian imports in December fell to their lowest level in two years, while OPEC imports reached an 11-month peak. Indian refiners increased their purchases in regions like Africa and South America, as well as the Middle East. Indian refiners also increased purchases of U.S. crude oil in order to replace Russian oil, and reduce the trade deficit between Washington and India. They are also on the lookout for Venezuelan oil.
IEA: World oil market to experience significant surplus in the first quarter
International Energy Agency announced on Wednesday that the global oil market will be in a deep surplus by the first quarter 2026. This is because the geopolitical risks of disruption have been offset so far by the excess supply.
In its monthly oil report, the IEA, a body that advises industrialised 'countries', predicted global oil supply will exceed demand by 4,25 million barrels a day in the first three months. This surplus would represent 4% of global demand, which is higher than previous predictions.
Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have increased by about 6% as geopolitical concerns and the possibility of a disruption in the oil market prompted buyers. Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, was trading at $65.02 on Wednesday at 1142 GMT. This is up 10 cents from yesterday. The U.S. captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro in the beginning of the month, and asked oil companies to invest to boost production in Venezuela. However, in the short term supplies from Venezuela have been disrupted. The threat of a possible U.S. strike on Iran has also led to the possibility of reduced supplies. Drone?attacks, technical issues and other factors have affected production in Kazakhstan.
The IEA stated that "barring any disruptions in supplies from Iran or Venezuela, as well as further cuts by other producers, a substantial surplus will likely reappear in the first quarter of 2026."
For now, the bloated accounts provide some comfort to participants in the market and have kept prices under control.
OPEC+ HAS?PAUSED AFTER A SERIES of Supply Hikes
The main reason why the supply has risen faster than the demand is because OPEC+ (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Russia, and other allies) began increasing output in April 2025, after years of cutting. Other producers such as the U.S.A., Guyana and Brazil have also increased their production.
OPEC+, however, has paused their output increases for the first quarter 2026.
The IEA released its latest figures for the year that indicated an implied surplus of 3,69 million bpd. This is a decrease from the 3.84 million bpd reported in the report last month. The IEA's latest figures on Wednesday showed that the market is expected to have an implied surplus of 3.69 million bpd for the entire year. This was a downward revision from the previous report last month, which had forecast a surplus of 3.84 million bpd.
The IEA stated that it was too early to determine the full impact of the recent geopolitical events on the 'oil market. However, the U.S. ban on Venezuelan oil shipments from December until early January had reduced exports by about 580,000 bpd.
Refinery Maintenance Season Adds to Surplus
As global oil refiners are planning planned shutdowns, and demand is lower, the surplus will be built up in 'the first quarter.
The Paris-based IEA stated that "seasonal refinery maintenance is about to begin, reducing the demand for crude. Further reductions in crude output will be required." OPEC, the rival forecaster, predicts a faster growth in demand than IEA. They expect oil consumption to rise by 1,38 million bpd. According to a calculation, OPEC data indicates a near-balance between supply and demand by 2026.
The IEA has revised up its forecast of global growth for this year to 2.5 million bpd, from 2.4 million bpd around December. It also said that around 52% will come from sources outside OPEC+.
(source: Reuters)