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Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar are falling as Trump's trade war fuels recession fears

On Wednesday, the latest escalation of the trade war between China and the United States rattled the global markets. Treasuries fell and the U.S. Dollar dropped in a saleoff of certain U.S. assets.

U.S. shares edged up in New York's early trading. However, the Nasdaq rose by more than 1%, and technology led gains in S&P 500.

The U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 104% on China on Wednesday. Beijing responded with a swift 84% duty on U.S. imported goods.

U.S. Treasuries were under renewed selling pressure on Wednesday, a sign investors are dumping their safest investments and moving to cash.

The sudden and violent drop in Treasuries recalled for many the panicked rush to cash at the beginning of COVID-19 in March 2020. It also reignited concerns about the fragility of the world's largest bond market.

Investors fear that Trump's tariffs are severe enough to cause a recession, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. They sold their Treasury holdings and drove up yields when bond prices fell.

According to George Saravelos, head of Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange research, the seemingly wholesale withdrawal of Treasuries from the market and the dollar as the "backbone" of the global financial systems could be indicative of a general decline in investor interest in holding U.S. assets and the end of an era.

We are seeing a simultaneous fall in the value of all U.S. assets, including stocks, dollar against alternative reserve currencies and the bond markets. He said that we are entering uncharted waters in the global financial systems.

Investors fled from the dollar, which is often seen as a safe-haven currency in turbulent times, to the Swiss Franc and gold.

The ING economists said that "this seemingly'sell America trade' is now dominating the theme of rising recession risks that would normally have pushed yields downward."

The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.5%, while the euro rose 0.78%, reaching $1.1037. The dollar fell 0.98% against the Japanese yen to 144.84.

The dollar fell 1.01% against the Swiss Franc to 0.839. Gold spot rose by 3.03%, to $3.074.35 per ounce.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased by 12.4 basis points, to 4.384% from 4.26% at late Tuesday.

The auction of 10-year notes on Wednesday, following a disappointing three-year note sale the previous day, could add to the pressure. It is a litmus test for investor interest in U.S. Government debt.

US STOCKS RISE EARNEST

Investors weighed whether recent sharp sales were overdone. Trading remained choppy, as it has all week.

According to LSEG, as of Tuesday's closing, S&P companies had lost $5.8 billion in stock market value following Trump's announcement on tariffs late last Wednesday. This is the largest four-day decline since the benchmark's creation in the 1950s.

The Cboe Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge was down. It reached its highest level since August this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 65.18 points or 0.18% to 37,710.77. The S&P 500 gained 20.39 points or 0.42% to 5,003.55 while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 180.63 points or 1.18% to 15,448.54.

The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 1.90 points or 0.26% to 741.06. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 2.97%.

Analysts at JPMorgan thought that the rapid escalation of U.S. Tariffs against China would be disruptive enough to send the global economy into a recession.

In a client note, they stated that "given the import bill from China the China tariff is equivalent to a whopping tax hike of $400 billion on U.S. businesses and households." The currency will likely be used as a release valve by China's policymakers.

The oil prices fell as concerns over the future of global energy demand outweighed geopolitical worries.

U.S. crude dropped 3.83%, to $57.30 per barrel. Brent was down to $60.51 a barrel.

(source: Reuters)