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OPEC sees no peak oil need long term, secretary general states

OPEC does not see a peak in oil need in its longterm projection and expects demand to grow to 116 million barrels a day by 2045, and might be higher, the secretary general stated on Thursday.

The International Energy Agency stated in a report on Wednesday it sees oil need peaking by 2029, levelling off at around 106 million barrels daily (bpd) towards completion of the years.

Hathaim Al Ghais, composing in Energy Aspects, called the IEA report dangerous commentary, specifically for customers, and will only result in energy volatility on a potentially extraordinary scale.

OPEC+, which groups de facto Saudi-led OPEC, the Company of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and allies including Russia, has actually made a series of deep output cuts considering that late 2022 to support the market.

OPEC+ members are cutting output by a total of 5.86 million bpd, or about 5.7% of worldwide need.

That includes cuts of 3.66 million bpd, which the group on June 2 consented to extend by a year until the end of 2025, and cuts of 2.2 million bpd, which OPEC+ will gradually phase out throughout a year from October.

The Paris-based IEA, which encourages industrialised countries, progressed the date for peak oil need after having said in October that it would occur by 2030. It said oil demand would begin to contract in 2030 while the U.S. and other non-OPEC nations add to supply.

Al Ghais said similar narratives had been proven wrong formerly, such as the IEA suggesting fuel need had peaked in 2019 or that coal demand had peaked in 2014.

At OPEC, we see oil demand growth of 4 mb/d over the two years of 2024 and 2025, with other forecasters likewise seeing an expansion of over 3 mb/d Even the IEA sees development of 2 mb/d. over this duration, followed by development of 0.8 mb/d in 2026. It then significantly drops off a cliff to practically no development in the next four years through 2030, he stated.

This is an impractical scenario, one that would adversely impact economies across the world. It is merely a continuation of the IEA's anti-oil story.

(source: Reuters)