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Outlook darkens for China's currently weak steel output: Russell

China's steel output plunged in July and is likely to continue to fall in coming months as mills battle for earnings amid slow need and seek to adhere to government assistance that makes sure annual production reveals no growth.

An overall of 82.94 million metric tons of crude steel was produced in July, down 9.5% from June and the lowest considering that December last year, according to official information released last week.

For the very first 7 months of the year, China's steel output was 613.72 million tons, down 2.2% from the exact same duration in 2023.

If that currently looks soft, it's poised to end up being even weaker in coming months, especially if the steel sector is to satisfy the unofficial target of overall output for 2024 being no more than what was produced in 2023.

Daily steel output for the first 7 months was 2.88 million heaps, a rate that if kept for the rest of the year would lead to yearly production of 1.05 billion loads.

This would be the second greatest on record after 1.07 billion loads in 2020, and go beyond the 1.02 billion tons produced in 2023, in addition to the 1.01 billion heaps in 2022 and the 1.03 billion tons in 2021.

If the 996 million heaps produced in 2019 is likewise taken into account, it's clear that China's steel output has been largely consistent around 1 billion tons for the previous 5 years.

This is mostly since steel need has levelled off and the authorities in Beijing have actually likewise motivated an informal cap on production in order to restrict contamination from the coal and energy extensive procedure of steel making.

In addition to not exceeding the previous year's output, China's steel mills are battling weak margins, with information from consultancy MySteel showing just 5% of producers are currently successful.

The benchmark steel rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange just recently dropped to the most affordable in more than 4 years, ending at 3,100 yuan ($ 434) a heap on Aug. 15, down 24% from the start of the year.

Steel rates last had a gaining year in 2021, having actually ended each year since then at a lower rate, a trend likely to continue in 2024.

PROPERTY ISSUES

Steel has been dragged lower by a protracted depression in China's property sector, where financial investment dropped 10.2% in the initially 7 months of the year compared to the exact same period in 2023.

Beijing has tried to stem the problem by implementing numerous stimulus procedures, consisting of relaxed lending requirements, but these have up until now failed to lift confidence in the residential or commercial property sector.

There is also a seasonal component to China's steel production, which tends to peak around the summer months as mills increase output to meet the increased need for building and construction.

But with building and construction in the doldrums it appears that steel output in 2024 peaked in May, and it's likely to continue trending lower offered the absence of optimism over a rebound in the home sector.

Another channel that has supplied some assistance was exports of steel items, which are up 21.8% in the very first seven months of the year to 61.23 million tons.

Nevertheless, that gain total up to an increase of just 10.34 million heaps, which while welcome to the having a hard time mills is hardly enough to make much distinction to a market with yearly output of around 1 billion loads.

Exports may likewise be under threat of tariffs, with India ending up being the most recent country to begin an examination into accusations of China dumping steel into its market at costs that render domestic production uncompetitive.

The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a writer .

(source: Reuters)