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Gold exceeds $5,000; yen gains on fears of intervention
Gold surged above $5,000 per ounce?Monday. This was boosted by safety flows amid dollar strength following a turbulent last week, where investors were rattled by tensions regarding Greenland and Iran, while markets remained on edge after violent spikes of the yen. After sharp spikes in the yen on Friday, speculation about possible intervention grew. Sources say that the New York Federal Reserve checked rates on Friday. This raises the possibility of a joint U.S. and Japanese intervention to stop the currency's decline. The market is inclined to short the yen, but with the possibility of coordination it is no longer a one-way wager," said Prashant Nnewnaha senior rates strategist for TD Securities Singapore. The dollar fell as the prospect of a joint intervention to help the yen lifted other currencies. As traders awaited Federal Reserve's policy announcement later in the week, the Nikkei fell about 2%. S&P futures also dropped 0.25%. European futures were down 0.27%. Last week, U.S. president Donald Trump brought temporary relief to the markets by retracting tariff threats and minimizing the possibility of a forceful response against Greenland. Further sanctions against Iran have exacerbated market concerns. The increased pressure from the United States against Iran has pushed oil prices up and lifted gold, a safe haven asset, to new highs. Silver and other precious metals have been gaining in value this year due to a weaker dollar. INTERVENTION CHATTER KEEPS YEN ALFT Sources told us about the rate checks that took place on Friday. This has traders on edge, as an intervention could happen at any moment. Sanae Takaichi, the Japanese prime minister, said that her government would take all necessary measures to combat speculative moves on the market. Carlos Casanova is a senior Asia economist with UBP. He said that the mere anticipation of a potential intervention can, by itself, lead to monetary strengthening. The Japanese yen will likely stabilise a little, but catalysts for significant appreciation are limited. Long-term yields should continue to be under pressure due to their elevated levels. Last week, a steep decline in the Japanese bond market had brought to light Takaichi’s fiscal expansion. She then called for a snap election on February 8, which is now due. Investors remain nervous despite a slight calm in the bond market. On Monday, the yen rose against all other currencies. It was a small step away from its record lows against the Euro and Swiss Franc as well as multi-decade lows versus sterling. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. He said that the warning in the style of a rate-check could reset the market's positioning and remind it there is a line between 159-160. "With the dollar looking softer, it is a better time for Japan to take a stand against the yen's weakness. "Intervention works best when it goes with the wider USD tide and not against it." The dollar index (which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals) fell up to 0.2%, reaching a low of 96.996 - a level not seen in four months - after falling by 0.8% on Friday, its largest one-day decline since August. This week, investors will be focused on the Fed. At a meeting that is overshadowed with a criminal investigation by the Trump administration into Fed Chair Jerome Powell whose term ends this May, it's expected that the central bank will hold rates steady. Oil prices in commodities were little changed on Saturday after rising by about 3% Friday. Traders weighed the impact of Trump's pressure on Iran to increase sanctions on vessels transporting its oil. Brent crude futures remained flat at $65.91 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.1. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong in Singapore)
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Gold reaches record-high of $5,000 on the safe-haven rush
On Monday, gold surged above $5,000 per ounce in a new record. This continued a historic rally that saw investors pile?into this safe-haven investment amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Gold spot rose by 1.98%, to $5,081.18 an ounce, at 0323 GMT. It had previously touched $5,092.71. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery gained 2.01%, reaching $5,079.30 an ounce. Metal prices soared by 64% between 2025 and 2040, thanks to sustained demand for safe havens, a monetary policy ease in the United States, strong central bank purchases - China extended its gold buying spree in December for a 14th month - as well as record inflows in exchange-traded fund. Prices have risen by more than 17% in the past year. According to Kyle Rodda of Capital.com, the latest catalyst is "effectively?this crisis in confidence in the U.S. government and U.S. asset, which was set off last week by some of the Trump administration's erratic decisions". On Wednesday, U.S. president Donald Trump abruptly backtracked from his?threats of imposing tariffs on European Allies as leverage for seizing Greenland. He said over the weekend that he would impose 100% tariffs on Canada if they?fulfilled a trade agreement with China. In an apparent 'effort' to get French President Emmanuel Macron to join his Board of Peace initiative, he has threatened to impose 200% tariffs on French wines and champagnes. Some observers worry that the board will undermine the United Nations as the primary global platform for conflict settlement, even though Trump says it will work alongside the U.N. Rodda added, "This Trump administration caused a permanent disruption in the way that things are done. So now everyone is kind of running towards gold as the only option." A rising yen has dragged down the dollar on Monday morning, as markets were on high alert for a possible intervention by the Federal Reserve. Investors have also been reducing their dollar positions in anticipation of the meeting this week. Gold priced in greenbacks is more affordable to holders of currencies other than the dollar. "We expect more upside (for gold)." "Our?current prediction suggests that prices will reach a peak of around $5,500 by the end of this year," stated Philip Newman, Director at Metals Focus. Newman said that periodic pullbacks will occur as investors take their profits. However, we expect each correction to last a short time and be met with strong buyer interest. After hitting a new record, spot?silver rose 5.79% to $108.91 an ounce. Spot platinum rose by 3.77%, to $2.871.40 an ounce. It had previously reached a session high of $2.891.6. Meanwhile, spot palladium was up 3.2%, to $2.075.30, which is a three-year high. Silver broke through the $100 barrier for the first-time on Friday. This follows a 147% increase in the previous year, as retail investor flows and momentum-driven purchases compounded an extended period of tightness on the physical metal markets.
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Iron ore prices fall amid volatile geopolitical environment
Iron ore futures dipped as traders were cautious in the face of a tepid global political backdrop. However, recovering hot metal production and increasing inventories indicate that prices have more room to grow. As of 0312 GMT, the most-traded contract for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), traded 0.51% higher at 788 Yuan ($113.29). The benchmark iron ore for February on the Singapore Exchange fell by 0.93% to $103.6 tonne. A?trader with knowledge of the issue said that traders are generally cautious in a geopolitical climate where prices for Singapore iron ore remain below $100 per ton. A Mysteel report published on January 26 said that prices would remain low due to the recovering hot metal production and Chinese Lunar New Year stocking. The report stated that iron ore inventories at steel mills were still lower than the same period of 'previous years. BHP Group, world's No. BHP Group, the world's No. Two traders reported that the stocks of BHP's Jimblebar Fines in major Chinese ports had risen 360% since late September, to 8.1 millions tons on January 13. Sources claim that Chinese steelmakers cannot take delivery of JMBF cargoes at ports. Steelhome's data from January 23 shows that iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports increased by 1.2% in a week. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were mixed on the DCE. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have firmed. The price of rebar increased by 0.38%. Hot-rolled coils gained 0.27%. Wire rods hardened 0.89%. Stainless steel rose 0.38%. ($1 = 6.9554 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich; Ruth Chai)
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Supply concerns in the US temper winter production disruptions
Prices of oil were not much different on Monday, after rising more than 2% the previous session. Supply concerns held back benchmarks despite disruptions to production in major U.S. oil-producing regions. Brent crude futures dropped 7 cents or 0.1% to $65.81 per barrel at 0221 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $61.01 per barrel, down by 6 cents or 0.1%. Both benchmarks closed Friday at their highest levels since January 14, with weekly gains of 2.7%. In the next few days, a U.S. aircraft carrier strike force and other assets will arrive in the Middle East. "Oil prices have been tickled by signs of production disruptions occurring in the U.S. this 'week, along with persistent geopolitical risks against the notion that there will be an oversupply of 2026," stated Priyanka Sackdeva, Senior Market Analyst at Phillip Nova Pte Ltd. JPMorgan analysts wrote in a Monday note that the U.S. has lost crude production of 250,000 barrels a day due to the harsh weather. This includes declines in Bakken oil fields in Oklahoma and Texas. Winter storm Fern has hit the U.S. Coast, forcing shutdowns in major oil and natural gas-producing regions, and adding stress on the power grid, she said. She added that the oil markets have experienced a mild increase as outages tighten the physical flow. Analysts say that traders are also on the alert for?geopolitical risk', given that tensions between Iran and the U.S. keep investors on edge. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that President Trump's announcement of a U.S. armada heading toward Iran has re-ignited fears about supply disruption. This has added a premium to crude oil prices and boosted risk aversion today. A senior Iranian official stated on Friday that Iran would consider any attack as "an all-out battle against us." Separately the Caspian Pipeline Consortium of Kazakhstan reported that it had returned to full loading capacity on its terminal at the Black Sea Coast on Sunday, after completing maintenance on one?of three moorings points. Sachdeva, a Phillip Nova representative, said that traders are more concerned with the sustainability of the surplus than they are about headlines. The overall oil market still indicates soft structural fundamentals for 2026, unless OPEC+ and major producers announce meaningful reductions. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Sudarshan Varadan and Florence Tan)
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Gold reaches record-high of $5,000 on the safe-haven rush
Gold surged to record highs above $5,000 per ounce on monday, continuing a historic rally as investors piled in the safe-haven assets amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Gold spot rose 1.79%, to $5,071.96 an ounce, at 0159 GMT. It had touched $5,085.50 just earlier. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery gained 1.79% per ounce to $5,068.70. Metal prices soared by 64% between 2025 and 2025. This was due to sustained demand for safe havens, monetary policy ease in the U.S., central bank purchases - China extended its gold buying spree in December for a 14th month - as well as record inflows in exchange-traded fund. Prices have risen by more than 17% in the past year. According to Kyle Rodda of Capital.com, the latest catalyst is "effectively this crisis of trust in the U.S. government and U.S. asset, which was set off last week by some of the erratic decisions made by the Trump administration". The U.S. president Donald Trump abruptly reversed his position on Wednesday after threatening to impose tariffs against European allies to gain leverage over Greenland. He said over the weekend that he would impose a tariff of 100% on Canada if they followed through with a deal with China. He has 'also threatened to hit French wine?and Champagnes with 200% Tariffs to pressure French President Emmanuel Macron to join his Board of Peace Initiative. Observers fear that the Board of Peace could undermine the United Nations as the primary global platform for conflict settlement, even though Trump says it will work alongside the U.N. Rodda continued, "This Trump administration is causing a permanent rupture to the way that things are done. So now everyone is?sort of running towards gold as the only option." A rising yen has pushed the dollar down on Monday morning, as markets are on high alert for a possible intervention by the Federal Reserve in regards to?the Japanese yen. Investors have also been reducing their dollar positions before this week's Federal Reserve Meeting. Gold priced in greenbacks is more affordable for those who hold other currencies. "We expect more upside (for gold)." According to our current forecast, prices are expected to peak around $5,500 by the end of this year, said Philip Newman. Newman said that periodic pullbacks will occur as investors take their profits. However, we expect each correction to be brief and met with strong buyer interest. Spot silver rose 4.57% to $107.65 an ounce after reaching a record high of $108.60. Spot platinum increased by 3.26%, to $2 857.41 an ounce. Meanwhile, spot palladium increased by 3.2%, to $2 074.40 an ounce. Silver broke through the $100 barrier for the first-time on Friday. This follows a 147% increase in the previous year, as retail investor flows and momentum-driven purchases compounded an extended period of tightness on the physical metal markets.
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S-Oil, South Korea's oil company, reports a Q4 profit surge and says that Q1 refining profits will remain robust
S-Oil, a South Korean oil company, announced on Monday that it had recorded a 91% increase in its fourth-quarter operating profits. It expects the first-quarter refinery margins to be robust due to the steady demand and disruptions of supply as well as a planned U.S. refining plant closure. According to market expectations, the refinery, which is owned 63% by Saudi Aramco reported an operating profit for the quarter of 424 billion won ($293 millions). The operating profit of its refining division increased by 55%, to 225.3 billion won. It said that the refining margin of gasoline from Dubai crude had risen to $13.4 dollars a barrel in 'the final quarter 2025. This is compared to $6 dollars a barrel a year ago. S-Oil ran its crude distillation units at its 669,000 barrels-per-day oil refinery, located in the city of Ulsan (southeast Korea), at 95% capacity from October to December. The rate was 96% in 2025. S-Oil has announced that it will close its No. S-Oil said it plans to shut down its No. 2 RFCC by 2026 to perform scheduled maintenance. Analysts say that the recent drone strikes by Ukraine on Russia, and the sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russia, have restricted Russia's petroleum supply. This has contributed to a high refining margin. Analysts predicted that continued sanctions from the EU by 2026, and Ukraine's attacks on processing facilities would sustain a strong refining profit margin. Analysts predict that the recent crises in Venezuela and Iran will also affect the competitiveness of China's processing plants, which import crude oil at low prices from these nations. Valero Energy Corporation has previously stated that its unit plans to close the refining operations at its Benicia Refinery in California, U.S.A. by April 2026. The company stated that S-Oil’s $7 billion project, named Shaheen to build a large production complex of petrochemicals in Ulsan in South Korea, will be mechanically completed in the first half 2026. The project is aimed at producing up to 3.2 millions metric tons of petrochemicals per year from crude oil.
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Oil gains hold as Iran puts investors on edge
Oil prices continued to rise on Monday, after gaining more than 2% the previous session. Tensions between the U.S. Brent crude futures increased 12 cents or 0.18% to $66 per barrel at 0127 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $61.21 per barrel, up $14 cents or 0.23%. Both benchmarks closed?on?Friday at their highest levels since January 14. In the coming days, a U.S. aircraft carrier and?strike force are expected to arrive at the Middle East. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Thursday that the U.S. has an "armada," heading towards Iran, but he hoped not to have to use it. He had told Tehran, not to kill protesters, or restart its nuclear programme. A senior Iranian official stated on Friday that Iran would consider any attack as "an all-out battle against us." Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that President Trump's announcement of a U.S. armada heading toward Iran reignited fears about supply disruptions. This added a premium to crude prices and encouraged risk aversion more widely this morning. After completing maintenance on one of the three moorings, Kazakhstan's Caspian?Pipeline Consortium reported that it had returned to full capacity at its terminal at?the Black Sea Coast on Sunday. As a winter storm began to sweep the United States on Friday, the crude and natural-gas production dropped and spot power prices rose. JPMorgan analysts wrote in a report that "Oil production has been also affected by the severe winter weather with losses of about 250,000 bpd" (barrels a day). This includes declines in Bakken, Oklahoma and parts of Texas. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Florence Tan, reporting)
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Gold surpasses $5,000 per ounce as the Yen soars amid intervention risk
Gold soared to $5,000 an ounce on Monday morning following a week of turbulence, with tensions over Greenland & Iran causing a stir. Meanwhile, markets were on tenterhooks due to a bond rout and violent spikes in yen. After a series of sharp spikes on Friday, speculation about a possible intervention sparked, the yen gained 0.5% at 154.84 to the dollar by 0052 GMT. Sources say that the New York Federal Reserve performed rate checks on the Friday before, increasing the possibility of a joint U.S. and Japanese intervention to stop the currency's decline. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Capital Markets' chief market strategist in New York, said that the cat-and-mouse yen game is likely to continue into the next week, but for now, the one-way market seems to have been broken. The Nikkei 225 index fell 1.6% during early trading, while S&P futures dropped 0.4%. Nasdaq's futures also declined 0.7% as traders awaited Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, provided temporary relief for markets by reversing threats of tariffs and downplaying possible forceful actions against Greenland. Further sanctions against Iran have exacerbated market anxiety. The increased pressure from the United States against Iran has pushed oil prices up and lifted gold, a safe haven, to new highs above $5,000 an ounce. Silver and other precious metals have soared this year in a fervent rally. The Yen Swells Intense Intervention Chatter Sources say that while authorities in Tokyo refused to comment on the wild swings of the yen, the New York Federal Reserve conducted rates checks on Friday. This has traders on edge, as they fear an intervention at any moment. Sanae Takaichi, the Japanese Prime Minister, said that her government would take all necessary measures to combat speculative movements in the market. Michael Brown, senior strategist at Pepperstone said that rate checks are usually the last warnings before interventions. He noted that the Takaichi government appears to have "a much, much higher tolerance for speculative FX movements than their predecessors." The risk/reward ratio has now shifted massively in favour of JPY short positions. Nobody will want to risk being 5/6 figures out if/when MoF or their agents pull the trigger. Last week, a steep fall in the bond market in Japan had brought to light Takaichi’s fiscal expansion. She called for a snap election on February 8, which is now due. Investors remain nervous despite a stabilisation of the bond market. On Monday, the yen also grew against other currencies. It was a little firmer than it had been against the euro and Swiss Franc records and against the sterling multi-decade lows. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist at Saxo. He said that the warning in the form of a rate check could reset the market's positioning and remind it there's an important line between 159-160. "With the dollar looking softer, it is a better time for Japan to lean on yen weakness. "Intervention works best when it goes with the wider USD tide and not against it." The dollar index - which measures the U.S. against six rival currencies - hovered near its four-month-low at 97.224, after falling 0.8% on Friday, its biggest one day drop since August. This week, investors will be focused on the Fed. At a meeting that is overshadowed with a criminal investigation by the Trump administration into Fed Chair Jerome Powell whose term ends this May, it's expected that the central bank will hold rates steady. Oil prices in commodities have eased after rising by about 3% last Friday. Traders are assessing the impact that Trump's pressure on Iran to impose more sanctions on vessels transporting its oil. Brent crude futures fell 0.18% to $65 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.2% to $60.92 a barrel. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong in Singapore)
China's commodity imports are soft, even those that look strong: Russell
China's. imports of significant products were either openly weak in May,. such as the decline in crude oil, or those revealing apparent. signs of strength were deceptive and mostly driven by factors. aside from increasing usage.
Arrivals of crude dipped into unfavorable area for the. first five months of the year, with computations based on. main custom-mades data launched on June 7 showing imports of 11.0. million barrels each day (bpd) in the January to May duration, down. 1.2% from 11.13 million bpd in the very same duration last year.
China, the world's largest crude importer, landed 11.06. million bpd in May, which was somewhat up from April's 10.88. million bpd, however massively below the 12.11 million bpd in. May 2023.
The decrease in year-on-year imports has actually been put down to. weak refining margins crimping throughput, and the 7.7% drop in. fuel exports in the first 5 months of 2024 has also. contributed to lower demand for crude.
China's imports of crude are down 130,000 bpd in the first. five months of the year, an outcome that is starkly at odds with. the expectations of the Company of the Petroleum Exporting. Countries (OPEC).
The exporter group projection in its May monthly outlook that. China's crude demand will increase 710,000 bpd for 2024 as an entire,. the greatest contributor to world need development of 2.25 million. bpd.
To be reasonable to OPEC, the group does anticipate a stronger 2nd. half for China's oil demand, but however, development in imports is. running up until now behind the OPEC projection that the 2nd half. will need to be remarkably strong.
Expectations of a stronger 2nd half are likewise most likely a. aspect driving iron ore imports.
China, which purchases about 75% of all international seaborne iron ore,. saw imports of 102.03 million metric lots in May, up from 101.82. million in April and the third straight month arrivals of the. steel basic material surpassed 100 million.
That appears like a strong performance, but the additional. iron ore isn't being used to pump up steel production, rather. it's generally going into inventories.
INVENTORIES GET
Port stockpiles monitored by SteelHome << SH-TOT-IRONINV > hit. 147.3 million lots in the week to June 7, the greatest in 26. months and up 40 %from the seven-year low of 104.9 million,. reached in October last year. Steel mills and traders have actually been
encouraged to raise. inventories by lower rates, with Singapore futures. dropping to an 18-month low of$ 98.36 a lot in April. While the cost has actually recovered somewhat to end at$ 108.70 a. heap on June 7, it's still well listed below the $143.08 reached in. early January. Copper imports also looked somewhat strong in May with.
imports of unwrought metal rising to 514,000 loads, up from. 438,000 in April. For the first 5 months of the year copper imports have.
acquired 8.8% to 2.327 million loads. But comparable to iron ore, it's stock constructs that are.
representing the extra imports, with stockpiles.
< CU-STX-SGH > in storage facilities kept an eye on by the Shanghai Futures.
from Russia, which is fighting to offer a few of its production of.
the industrial metal since of tighter sanctions by Western.
countries enforced as part of steps following Moscow's.
invasion of Ukraine. The major commodity where need is greater is coal, with. China's imports of all grades can be found in at 43.81 million heaps in. May, below April's 45.25 million, however greater than the 39.58.
million from May in 2015. For the first five months of the year China's coal imports. were 204.97 million lots, up 12.6 %from the very same period in 2023.
The gain has actually mostly been driven by weak domestic output,. with production down 3.5 %in the very first four months of the year.
after security checks were purchased in significant coal-producing.
areas. With the outlook for coal production unsure in coming. months, it's possible that imports will stay robust, although.
much will depend upon China's hydropower and renewable generation,.
both of which are anticipated to increase over the rest of 2024. The general message
from China's product imports is that. while they aren't dire, they are hardly indicative of a strong. recovery worldwide's second-biggest economy. The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a columnist. . (source: Reuters)