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Investors and economists respond to the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by the US
After months of accusing Maduro?of drug running and illegitimacy, the United States announced that it had attacked Venezuela and captured its long serving President Nicolas Maduro, marking a dramatic increase in geopolitical pressures. Donald Trump stated in a Truth Social posting that "the United States of America has successfully carried out a massive strike against Venezuela, and its leader President Nicolas Maduro.?He, along with his spouse, have been captured and flown outside the country." Washington hasn't intervened in Latin America in this way since 1989, when it invaded Panama to remove military leader Manuel Noriega over similar accusations. Trump also threatened to intervene if security forces shot at protesters in Iran, days after unrest left many dead. This is the greatest internal threat to Iranian authorities for years. Here are some comments from investors and economists: BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIC STRATEGIST, ANNEX MANAGEMENT BROOKFIELD WISCONSIN This was a matter of when and not if. From an investment perspective, it could unlock massive amounts of oil over time. This could serve as a warning for the Iranian leadership, and possibly even the?Russian leadership, regarding the president's ability and willingness to effect change. When conflict begins, markets often go into a risk-off mode, but quickly return to a risk-on mode. Oil markets may be the only ones to react, given how quickly the situation unfolded. "There have been many forecasts about a glut of oil on the market. This will only add to that." MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH ECONOMIST SALTMARSH ECONOMICS LONDON The events remind us that geopolitical issues continue to dominate headlines and influence the markets. The unresolved tensions over U.S. trade tariffs to Ukraine, Iran and Taiwan, as well as Venezuela are all causing the markets to be forced to "cope with significant headline risk" that they were not used to during the previous U.S. administrations." TINA FORDHAM is the founder and a?geopolitical?strategist at FORDHAM Global Foresight, LONDON. "I'm expecting a sense of almost a boon, despite the fact that post-authoritarian transformations are a very bumpy and nonlinear history. The track record of the United States in the Southern Hemisphere has also been patchy. I sense?a lot of optimism regarding a post Maduro, post Chavez Venezuela. I believe reality will be more messy. "I think that (for) the Monday opening, this will?fuel animal spirits and the possibility of change in Iran." "We have seen periodic protests in Iran, the regime is unpopular since a long time. This time it is gaining momentum. "These are two markets, the energy-producing and consumer markets that were previously off limits for international investors. They could now be opened up."
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Zelenskiy suggests Shmyhal to be Ukraine's next energy minister
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine's president, said that he had proposed Denys Shmyhal as the country's first deputy prime minister and energy minister. Zelenskiy called on Ukrainian legislators to support Shmyhal as the country's new energy minister. He said that Shmyhal's experience is vital for ensuring stability in the sector of power amid increasing Russian attacks. Zelenskiy posted a picture on Telegram of him with Shmyhal, the former prime minister, to show that he was urging lawmakers in Ukraine to support Shmyhal as the new energy minister, saying that his experience would be vital for ensuring stability in the power sector amid intensifying Russian attacks. Since the start of the war, Russia has repeatedly bombarded Ukraine's energy industry with missiles and drones. Moscow has intensified its attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure in recent months. This has led to long blackouts throughout the country, especially during the critical winter months. Shmyhal is one of Ukraine's most experienced officials. Analysts praise him for his ability to maintain economic stability and run the government efficiently after Russia invaded in February 2022. He served as Ukraine's longest serving prime minister from July 2020 to July 2025. In that time, he became the defence minister. Major Shake-Up in Key Sectors Shmyhal's nomination comes at the same time as Zelenskiy has launched a major shake up of the Ukrainian Defence sector and Security Forces. Zelenskiy nominated a newly appointed defence minister and named Kyrylo Budanov, the popular head of military intelligence. This reshuffle comes after the biggest political crisis in Ukraine since World War II, which was caused by a corruption scandal in Ukraine's energy sector. Zelenskiy’s former head of office was dismissed. The scandal also led to the resignation of the Justice and Energy Ministers. Zelenskiy stated that the changes are needed to strengthen Ukraine's resilience?as it faces a crucial moment in its attempts to end the war with Russia. As U.S. president Donald Trump presses Kyiv and Moscow for a solution to the war, Ukrainian negotiators are pressing for guarantees of security from the United States. On Saturday, national security advisors from over 18 countries met in Kyiv to discuss details of the security guarantees and economic agreement on Ukraine's recovery after war. Ukraine's Parliament must approve Zelenskiy’s nominations for energy and defence Ministers.
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Venezuelan oil industry - world's biggest reserves and decaying infrastructure
Here are some facts about Venezuela's oil industry, which was captured on Saturday by U.S. troops, according to U.S. President Donald Trump. RESERVES Official data indicates that Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, but its crude production remains at a fraction of its capacity due to mismanagement and lack of investment, as well as?sanctions. According to the London-based Energy Institute, Venezuela has about 17% or 303 billion barrels of global reserves, which is ahead of OPEC leader Saudi Arabia. According to the U.S. Department of energy, Venezuela's heavy oil reserves, located in Orinoco, are expensive to produce but relatively simple. PRODUCTION Venezuela, along with Iran, Iraq Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, was a founding Member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. In the 1970s Venezuela produced 3.5 million barrels of oil per day, which was at the time over 7% of the global oil production. In 2010, production fell below 2,000,000 bpd and averaged around 1.1,000,000 bpd in 2011. "If the?developments lead to a real regime change in the end, it could result in more oil on?the market over time." It will take some time before production recovers fully, said Arne L. Rasmussen of Global Risk Management. Saul Kavonic, analyst at MST Marquee, says that if the regime changes succeed, Venezuelan exports will grow, as sanctions are lifted, and foreign investments return. "History has shown that forcing regime changes rarely stabilizes oil supply quickly. Libya and Iraq offer clear and sobering examples," said Jorge Leon, head geopolitical analyses at Rystad. Joint Ventures Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. was created in 1970, when Venezuela nationalised the oil industry. Venezuela opened up the oil sector for foreign investment in the 1990s. Venezuela mandated that all oil projects be owned by the PDVSA in majority after Hugo Chavez was elected president in 1999. PDVSA has set up joint ventures with Chevron and other companies to boost production. These include ENI, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Total, and Rosneft, a Russian company. EXPORTS AND REFINING Since the introduction of the sanctions, China is now the largest buyer?of Venezuelan crude oil. Since?Trump announced that all vessels entering and leaving the country would be blocked in December 2025, exports have stopped. PDVSA owns significant refinery capacity outside of the country. This includes CITGO, which is located in the United States. However, creditors have been fighting to control it for years in U.S. courtrooms. (Reporting and editing by Jason Neely, Marianna Paraga, Arathy Zhdannikov and Dmitry Zhdannikov)
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Investors and economists respond to the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by the US
After months of accusing him of drug trafficking and illegitimacy, the United States announced that it had attacked Venezuela on Saturday and captured its longtime President Nicolas Maduro, marking a dramatic increase in geopolitical tensions. In a Truth Social posting, Donald Trump stated that "The United States of America successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and the leader of Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro. He and his wife were captured and flew out of Venezuela." Washington hasn't intervened in Latin America in this way since the invasion of Panama to remove military leader Manuel Noriega in 1989, over allegations similar to these. Trump also threatened to intervene in the case of a security force shooting at protesters in Iran, despite the fact that the unrest in Iran has been raging for days and has resulted in several deaths. Here are some comments from investors and economists: MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH ECONOMIST, 'SALTMARSH ECONOMICS', LONDON The events remind us that geopolitical tensions continue dominating headlines and driving the markets. The markets have to deal with a much higher level of headline risk now than under previous U.S. administrations." TINA FORDHAM IS THE FOUNDER OF FORDHAM GLOBAL FORESIGHT AND A GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIST. "A sense of almost a boona-ness, to me is likely?to follow even though the history post-authoritarian transformations is very bumpy, and nonlinear. The?record of the United States in the Southern Hemisphere has also been patchy. There's a lot optimism in the air about a post-Maduro and post-Chavez Venezuela. I believe reality will be more messy. "I think that the Monday Open will fuel animal spirits and also (the possibility of) change in Iran." "We have seen (in Iran) these protests?periodically, the regime is unpopular since a long time. This time it is gaining traction. "These are two markets, the energy-producing and consumer markets that were previously off limits for international investors. They could now be opened up."
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Sources: Venezuelan oil facilities unharmed by US strike
Two sources familiar with the operations of PDVSA, Venezuela's energy company, said that the country's oil refinery and production?were running normally on Saturday. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that U.S. troops had captured Nicolas Maduro after months of pressure on him regarding accusations?of drug-running, and illegitimacy at power. One source said that the port of La Guiara, near Caracas, which is one of Venezuela's largest, but not one used for oil exports, had suffered serious damage. In December, Trump announced a ban on oil tankers from entering or leaving Venezuela. The U.S. also seized two cargoes containing Venezuelan crude. According to monitoring data and internal documents, the OPEC nation's exports in November were 950,000 barrels a day (bpd), which is about half what they were last month. PDVSA has seen its crude and fuel inventories increase rapidly as a result of the U.S. sanctions. PDVSA was forced to reduce deliveries in ports and to store oil in?tankers, to avoid a reduction of crude production or refinery cuts. PDVSA’s administrative system has also not recovered fully from a cyberattack that occurred in December. The attack forced the company to isolate terminals as well as oilfields and refineries, forcing it to rely on written records for continued operations. Marianna Pararaga, Christian Plumb, and Jason Neely edited the report.
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UAE urges restraint in the face of rapidly evolving Yemen crisis
United Arab Emirates (UAE) said that it was deeply concerned about the ongoing escalation of violence in Yemen, after Saudi-backed forces invaded areas captured?last week by UAE-backed separatists from the south seeking independence. Rapidly moving Crisis in Yemen Has opened a? major ?feud Between the two Gulf Powers and the Coalition of Forces The Houthi movement, backed by Iran, is being fought by a government that has been internationally recognized. In a statement, the UAE said Yemenis must exercise restraint in order to maintain security and stability. The announcement came just hours after the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council announced that it would hold an election. referendum on independence In two years, its forces have been ejected from important areas that they suddenly seize last month. ESCALATION Saudi-backed forces announced on Friday that they had taken control over key locations in Hadramout. This is a large province with desert stretches along the Saudi border. On Saturday, witnesses reported they had entered portions of the capital of the region, Mukalla. Yemen has been divided for over a decade into warring regions. It is strategically located between Saudi Arabia, the top oil exporter in the world, and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which guards the important sea route connecting Europe to Asia. STC is part of the internationally recognized government which controls southern and eastern Yemen. Gulf states support this government against Houthis. Rashad Al-Alimi the head of the Presidential Council said that he asked Saudi Arabia for a forum in order to solve the Southern issue. He added that he hoped all southern factions would come together. The crisis started early last month, when the STC seized large swathes including Hadramout. They now have control of the entire territory of the former state of South Yemen which merged with north Yemen in 1990. The leaders of the internationally recognized government, which was based in Aden, and which included several ministers who were part of the STC, left for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia viewed the southern movement as a threat against its security. The crisis has triggered the Big Split Years of divergence between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on key issues reached a boiling point, threatening the regional order. The extent to which the dispute over regional security issues has impacted other areas may be revealed over the weekend when both countries attend a scheduled OPEC meeting Determine the output policy of the group. Saudi Arabia attacked a base near Hadramout early this week and ordered all UAE forces still in Yemen to leave. Red line The UAE agreed. The STC's declaration of Friday, that it wanted a two-year period of transition leading to an independence referendum for a South Arabian state, was its clearest indication to date about the movement’s intention to secede. (Reporting and editing by Maha El-Dahan, Enas Al-Alashray, Angus McDowall)
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Elon Musk's Grok AI is under scrutiny for sexualized images of minors and women
Elon Musk’s xAI has been under international scrutiny after allegations that the platform was filled with sexualized AI-generated images and women. Grok, xAI’s flagship chatbot on X's social media platform?found that more than 20 women - as well as some men – had their images digitally stripped off clothing by using xAI’s flagship chatbot. In a Friday statement, French government ministers said that Grok's "sexual and sexist" content is "manifestly unlawful." The ministers said that they had also reported the content of Grok to the French media regulator Arcom in order to determine whether it was compliant with the Digital Services Act of the European Union. In a letter, India's 'IT ministry' told X India that Grok was being misused to create and distribute obscene, sexually explicit and sexist content of women. It instructed X to?submit a report on the actions taken within three days. When contacted by email for comment, a xAI representative responded, "Legacy Media Liars". Federal Trade Commission refused to respond to an immediate request for comment. Grok, the chatbot, was at times contradictory. At one point, it appeared to admit that it "depicted minors?in minimum clothing" and had "identified lapses of safeguards and were urgently 'fixing them". This response was widely shared Friday. The Grok account posted a message referring to the Child Sexual Abuse - Material. The chatbot appeared to dismiss the controversy when it responded to another user. One post said, "Some people got upset about a AI image that I generated. Big deal." It's only pixels. If you can't handle the innovation, log off. (Reporting and editing by Timothy Heritage and Chizu Nomiyama in Bengaluru, with additional reporting by Bipasha dey and Daniel Wallis. Additional reporting by Arnav and Akash Mishra from Bengaluru.
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Wall Street is mixed at the start of the year; Treasury yields are moving higher
The dollar strengthened on Friday, 2026's first trading day, as U.S. Treasury rates rose and U.S. stock prices oscillated. The S&P 500, Dow, and other major U.S. indexes sawsawed throughout the session. However, both the Dow and S&P 500 posted gains to snap their four-day loss streaks. The Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology and related megastocks, posted a nominal decline. The three indexes all registered losses during the week-long holiday. Jed Ellerbroek is the portfolio manager of Argent Capital, St. Louis. He said that today was a holiday day with lower volumes and fewer people engaged in trading. "Value outperforms growth, AI infrastructure is on the rise, and many of the stocks that are doing well, in particular in utilities and industrials, but also in energy, are AI beneficiary shares." Stocks gained in 2025 despite tariff wars, the longest U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical tensions and threats to central banks' independence. The Fed's Year Ahead Markets will be focused on monetary policies in the coming year, as Jerome Powell nears the end of his tenure at the Federal Reserve and the release of economic data returns to its more regular and recent schedule following the shutdown of the federal governments. The central bank's path could be determined by a series of delayed indicators that are due to come out in the next few days. Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at Globalt Atlanta said that maintaining Fed independence was one of the most important things. "Even though (U.S. president Donald) Trump appointed the newest members and they are more dovish they want to give at least the appearance that the Fed is independent. Once you lose this, you can be in a lot of trouble." Ellerbroek, however, disagrees. He says that President Trump "has made it clear that the person he will appoint as chair is going to be someone who is willing and able to follow his direction, and that he wants rates to be significantly lower than what they are today." Ellerbroek also adds that "the excitement of lower rates is tangible in the short term." The extent to which markets begin to reap the benefits of massive investments in nascent artificial-intelligence technology will also likely receive scrutiny ?in the year ahead. In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine and U.S. Congress midterm elections in this fall, there will also be ongoing tensions throughout the Middle East. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 319.10 or 0.66% to 48,382.39; the S&P 500 gained 12.97 or 0.19% to 6,858.47; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 6.36 or 0.03% to 23,235.63. European shares started the year with record highs. Technology and defense stocks were a major contributor. Investors watched the STOXX 600, as it approached its 600-point milestone. The blue-chip FTSE 100 in London has reached the 10,000-point symbolic mark for the very first time. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 4.41 points or 0.4% to 1,019.15. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.67% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 Index?rose 16,23 points or 0.69%. Emerging market stocks increased 24.02 points or 1.71% to 1,429.34. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed up by 1.75% to 735.19. Japan's Nikkei dropped 187.44, or 0.37% to 50,339.48. GOLD, SILVER PAUSE PRESS "PAUSE" After a wave of profit-taking, gold and silver have only moderately recovered their gains from the previous year. The 2025 gold price rise was the largest in 46 years. Silver and platinum also saw their biggest gains ever. This was due to a combination of factors, including Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and ETF flows. Spot gold increased by 0.36%, to $4,329.57 per ounce. Spot silver rose by 1.6%, to $72.39 an ounce. Dollar rose after the dollar's biggest annual drop in eight-years. The dollar index, which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, and the euro, increased 0.19%, reaching 98.43. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.21%, at $1.172. The dollar gained 0.11% against the Japanese yen to reach 156.84. Bitcoin gained 1.69%, reaching $89,789.87. Ethereum gained 4.5% to $3.121.09. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds rose as markets awaited the employment data that will be released next week to get a sense of the economy's health heading into the New Year. The yield on the benchmark 10-year notes in the U.S. The yield on 10-year notes increased 3.8 basis points from late Wednesday to 4.191%. The 30-year bond rate rose by 3.8 basis points, from 4.83% at the end of Wednesday. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve), rose by 0.6 basis points, to 3,475% from 3.469%, late Wednesday. Investors weighed geopolitical risk against concerns about oversupply, and oil prices eased. Brent crude settled at $60.75 a barrel, a 0.16% drop on the day. U.S. crude fell 0.17% and closed at $57.32 - a 0.17% decline.
Milton threatens to overthrow shaky Florida property owners insurance market
Typhoon Milton threatens to swamp Florida's bothered property-insurance market, possibly pushing rates higher and threatening coverage in a storm-prone region that currently has the greatest insurance expenses in the country. The massive storm, which experts approximate might trigger $60. billion to $100 billion in insured losses, is churning toward a. state that has actually been avoided by nationwide insurance companies, leaving. residents to seek protection in a market where commercial. companies frequently stop working or decline to pay claims.
These are additional risks that, based on the basic. principles of insurance coverage, ought to not exist, said Martin. Weiss, founder of the independent Weiss Ratings analysis firm. Your insurer is expected to be your backup strategy.
On top of that, Floridians could also deal with additional. charges if the state-run insurer runs out of money to pay. claims. U.S. forecasters are describing Milton as a devastating major. typhoon, packing maximum winds of 160 miles per hour (260 kph). It is. forecasted to make landfall in the Tampa Bay area around 2 a.m. EDT (0600 GMT) on Thursday. The low-lying region, home to 3.1. million people, is still tidying up from Hurricane Helene last. month.
Projections suggest the damage might be on par with 2005's. Typhoon Katrina, the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history, which triggered $100 billion in insured losses when it. swamped New Orleans.
For the previous a number of years, Florida has been one of the most. noticeable fronts of a nationwide property-insurance crisis that. has caused premiums to increase across the U.S. by approximately 31%. between 2021 and 2023, according to research study by Benjamin Keys of. the University of Pennsylvania and Philip Mulder of the. University of Wisconsin. Experts indicate rising inflation and a rise in severe. weather events connected to rising international temperature levels. Climate. modification is fueling more powerful and destructive storms.
HIGH-RISK STATE
Those factors are all at play in Florida, which has led the. country in population development given that 2021 in spite of a low-lying. topography that leaves it vulnerable to rising sea levels and. typhoons. Florida postal code account for 78 of the 80 riskiest. areas in the nation, according to Weather Source, an. ecological danger consultancy.
Some insurance providers pulled out after Typhoon Andrew in 1992,. leaving the market to smaller sized companies that frequently do not have the. resources to sustain significant losses.
Some 41 Florida insurers have actually declared insolvency or. otherwise failed given that 2003, while only 37 have failed in the. rest of the country over that time duration, according to public. filings. Those that remain in company can be tight-fisted; Weiss. Ratings discovered that six of the state's biggest providers rejected. nearly 50% of their claims in 2023, an abnormally high figure.
The state established a nonprofit, Citizens Residential or commercial property Insurance. Corp, in 2002 to offer coverage for house owners who can not discover. it through the private sector. With 1.2 million policies in. force, it is now the biggest supplier in the state.
Unlike private business, Citizens will not run out of cash. to cover claims, as it has the power to charge policyholders an. additional 15% if it runs out of money.
If that stops working to cover the expense, it can add a 10% surcharge. to anybody in the state who has taken out any sort of insurance. policy at all - from boats to family pets to lorries - whether or not. they get their protection through Citizens.
People stated in July it had $14.4 billion on hand to cover. any losses. We will constantly remain in a position to pay claims,. spokesman Michael Peltier stated on Tuesday.
Collectively, the market has shouldered Florida homeowners. with typical insurance expenses of $4,060 last year, nearly $1,000. greater than any other state, according to Keys' data. Those. figures many not consist of the cost of flood insurance coverage, which is. normally bought separately.
Average premiums rose 57% in between 2019 and 2023, a steeper. increase than anywhere else.
SCALING BACK PROTECTION
Karyn Roeling, president of Seibert Insurance coverage in Tampa, stated. those spiraling costs have actually prompted some of her clients to scale. back coverage or choose to go uninsured.
While banks need people who have home loans on their homes. to bring insurance, it is not obligatory for those who do not owe. cash on their property.
Roughly one in 13 property owners in the United States is. uninsured, according to the Consumer Federation of America, with. Black, Hispanic and Native American families most likely to. absence protection.
State authorities and market trade groups state the market has. supported over the past year, thanks to legal reforms that cut. back on what they characterize as unimportant claims and. doubtful claims.
People has actually been able to lower its exposure by. moving numerous countless policies to personal. providers, according to state information.
A destructive hurricane might spook private insurance companies that have. started to return to the Florida market.
Rates are going to continue to simply go up and up, insurers. might declare bankruptcy and Citizens will be on the hook to get. that much more of the slack, said Sam Boyd, a Sotheby's genuine. estate consultant in Melbourne, Florida.
However others keep in mind that real-estate costs have continued to. increase regardless of the state's exposure to extreme weather, and they. doubt Milton will dull Florida's appeal.
In a couple months, as soon as the weather gets good, individuals are. going to begin boiling down, sight unseen, stated Bruce Loren, a. Palm Beach attorney who specializes in high-end property.
(source: Reuters)