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Analysts cut EU carbon cost projections on 2023 emission depression

Experts have cut cost projections for European Union carbon permits for 2024 to 2026 following record low figures last year for emissions covered by Europe's carbon market.

EU Allowances (EUAs) are forecast on average at 63.96 euros a metric lot this year and 74.00 euros in 2025, a study of 8 experts revealed, down 13.7% and 11.2% respectively from forecasts made in January.

The average projection for the 2nd quarter of this year was 62.30 euros a load, down 18.8% from the January forecast of 76.76 euros a load.

The EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS) forces manufacturers, power companies and airlines to pay for each load of co2 they produce by giving up carbon allowances as part of Europe's efforts to fulfill its environment targets.

Data released by the European Commission previously this month showed 2023 emissions covered by the ETS fell a record 15.5% as sustainable power output skyrocketed.

EUA fundamentals continue to look bearish for the rest of the year, with power emissions likely to post another considerable year-on-year drop in 2024, said Trevor Sikorski, head of natural gas and carbon at Energy Aspects.

The benchmark EU carbon contract currently trades around 66 euros a lot and has actually fallen practically 20% considering that the start of the year.

Paula VanLaningham, director of carbon research at LSEG, said signs of enhanced commercial activity in some sectors and need for licenses from the shipping sector could help lift prices from current levels by the end of the year and into 2025.

That said, we don't anticipate these more bullish elements to have a significant effect on rates much ahead of 2025, barring an enormous change in the geopolitical image, she said.

The shipping market was consisted of in the ETS from January this year with shipping firms requiring to give up authorizations to cover 40% of intra-EU voyages for 2024, rising to 70% in 2025 and 100% in 2026.

The typical cost projection for 2026 was 92.48 euros a load, down 7.6% from the January projection of 100.13 euros a heap.

(source: Reuters)