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Renewable fuels take bite out of United States diesel usage: Kemp

Biodiesel and other eco-friendly diesel fuel oils are displacing a small but growing volume of petroleumderived distillate fuel oil in the United States, particularly in California and other parts of the West Coast.

The outcome of this policy-driven change is that manufacturing and freight activity is associated with total petroleum and renewable fuel oil provided rather than just petroleum distillates alone.

Distillate fuel oils such as diesel and gas oil are extremely used in freight transport, production and building, so consumption is carefully associated with the commercial cycle.

The cyclical upturn has actually stayed weak over the last six months, as producers struggle with headwinds triggered by high interest rates for expense on costly durable items.

However even if the recovery gets more momentum, the eventual boost in petroleum distillate usage is most likely to be smaller than anticipated as more demand is lost to sustainable options.

Chartbook: U.S. extract usage and stocks

The volume of petroleum-derived distillate fuel oil supplied to the U.S. domestic market, a proxy for consumption, was up to 3.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in February 2024 from 4.0 million b/d in the exact same month in 2023.

This was offset by an increase in the supply of biodiesel and other eco-friendly fuel oils to 0.3 million b/d from 0.2 million b/d, according to data from the U.S. Energy Info Administration (EIA).

Overall intake of petroleum and renewable fuel oils has been flat over the in 2015, constant with other signs that manufacturers and freight hauliers are having a hard time to emerge from a long but shallow slump in 2022/23.

Alternative of eco-friendly fuel oils for petroleum-derived distillates is most advanced on the West Coast, where California has actually adopted state-level policies needing minimum mixing rates and use.

On the West Coast, the volume of petroleum extracts supplied fell to 370,000 b/d in February from 460,000 in the same month a year earlier and over 530,000 in February 2021.

Over the same duration, the volume of renewable fuel oils supplied rose to 170,000 b/d from 90,000 b/d a year back and less than 40,000 in 2021.

EXTRACT INVENTORIES

The shift from consumption of petroleum distillates to eco-friendly fuel oils has actually been mirrored by a similar shift in inventories ( Petroleum supply monthly, EIA, April 30).

U.S. petroleum extract inventories stood at 118 million barrels at the end of February, which was 18 million barrels ( -13% or -1.14 basic discrepancies) below the prior ten-year seasonal average.

But petroleum distillates were supplemented by another 11 million barrels of biodiesel and sustainable fuel oil stocks, up from 8 million barrels at the same time in 2023 and 7 million in 2022.

Integrated stocks of petroleum and sustainable extracts are 14 million barrels (-10% or -0.84 standard discrepancies) listed below the ten-year seasonal average, and broadly similar to levels in 2023 and 2022.

From the perspective of combined stocks, the production-consumption balance is just decently tighter than regular.

PRICES AND FRACTURE SPREADS

The reasonably small deficit in combined inventories assists explain why diesel prices and crack spreads have softened in recent months.

The anticipated velocity in extract fuel oil usage and deficiency of inventories has actually been consistently delayed as manufacturers have struggled to restore momentum.

Inflation-adjusted spot rates for ultra-low sulphur fuel oil delivered in New york city Harbor balanced simply $107 per barrel in April 2024, below $136 in September 2023 and a high of $ 205 in May 2022.

In real terms, diesel prices have fallen faster than crude, with the diesel premium or fracture spread narrowing to $22 per barrel in April from $46 in August 2023 and a high of nearly $63. in June 2022.

The inflation-adjusted spread has reverted near the. five-year average for 2015-2019 before the coronavirus pandemic. and Russia's intrusion of Ukraine interrupted the marketplace.

Hedge funds and other money managers have lowered their. combined position in U.S. diesel and European gas oil in 8. of the most current 11 weeks, offering the equivalent of 52. million barrels given that February 13.

As a result, the combined position had actually been decreased to 35. million barrels (34th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on. April 30 down from 87 million (73rd percentile) on February 13.

Fund positioning has changed from bullish to slightly. bearish as petroleum distillate inventories have actually depleted much. less than typical for the time of year.

Existing diesel rates and spreads indicate materials are not. especially tight, which has actually taken some of the heat out of the. unrefined market also, contributing to the retreat of Brent. prices from their current highs in early April.

Associated columns:

- Distillate futures see huge outflow of speculative money. ( April 2, 2024)

- Diesel rates primed to rise greatly in 2024 (February 6,. 2024)

- Global diesel scarcity eases after summertime rise in prices. ( December 14, 2023)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)