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NY Fed survey shows deteriorating household financial situations

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Thursday that Americans' perceptions of their financial situation, including their future expectations of earnings and income and their views about inflation outlook, deteriorated in April amid mixed opinions.

The bank's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations found that, last month, when President Donald Trump launched a trade war with the rest of world, household perceptions of both their current and future financial situation "deteriorated dramatically." Survey respondents also predicted slower income and earnings gains in April compared to March and higher unemployment and a harder time finding a job. The bank found that spending expectations rose from March to April.

Inflation was mixed. The survey respondents expected inflation to be 3.6% in the year ahead, the same as March. However, the expectation for three years ahead rose from 3% to 3.2%. Survey respondents expect inflation to be 2.7% in five years, compared with 2.9% in March.

In the report, it was found that consumers expect a rise in rent, gas and college costs. They also anticipate a 3.3% increase in home prices over the next year, up from 3%.

The New York Fed released its report after the Fed announced on Wednesday that it would hold the short-term rate target constant amid high economic uncertainty and growing risks.

The Fed believes that the economy is doing well, but the Trump administration's trade tariff policy has changed the outlook. Many economists expect it to increase inflation and unemployment while slowing down growth.

In a press briefing following the Fed policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that "despite increased uncertainty, the economy remains in a strong position."

Powell warned that the data on consumer sentiment was not a reliable indicator of consumer spending.

Fed calculations have been heavily influenced by the state of inflation expectation data, because Fed officials are generally in agreement that what people expect for price pressures has a big impact on their current situation. New York Fed data have not shown the same increase in inflation expectations as other surveys, such as those from University of Michigan.

In recent weeks, many Fed officials said that it is important to maintain expectations amid the uncertainty and inflation risk caused by Trump's agenda. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci; Michael S. Derby)

(source: Reuters)