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Oil costs stall after funds total brief covering: Kemp

Benchmark oil prices appear to have actually topped out for the time being after financiers completed repurchasing previous bearish short positions in U.S. crude alternatives and futures.

Repurchases had actually sustained the rally for practically three months as the outlook for intake enhanced and Saudi Arabia and its OPEC? allies restricted production.

In the premier NYMEX WTI agreement, hedge funds and other cash managers redeemed 12 million barrels of brief positions over the 7 days ending on March 5.

Outstanding shorts were minimized to just 28 million barrels below a high of 128 million barrels on December 12.

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

Based on minimum short positions over the last ten years, funds most likely have less than 10 million barrels delegated buy back.

Enormous brief covering has raised front-month WTI costs by less than $11 per barrel in the last 3 months. In real terms, costs are practically precisely in line with the inflation-adjusted average because the start of the century.

Nearly all shorts have actually now been repurchased, so extending the rally will depend on the establishment of new bullish longs. However funds in fact liquidated 3 million barrels of long positions over the 7 days ending on March 5.

With no new purchasing entering the marketplace, the upward momentum behind oil rates abated.

REFINED FUELS

Financial investment supervisors sold refined fuels (-13 million barrels). in the most current week, mainly middle distillates (-12. million), split in between U.S. diesel (-7 million) and European. gas oil (-5 million).

Formerly, funds had actually been bullish about the outlook for. distillates, which are delicate to the business cycle, collecting. a position of 87 million barrels (72nd percentile for all weeks. given that 2013) by the middle of February.

But they have offered 27 million barrels over the three most. current weeks, trimming the position to simply 60 million barrels. ( 50th percentile) on March 5.

Sales of diesel and gas oil futures have actually taken much of the. heat out of refining margins and reversed some of the earlier. rise in wholesale costs.

Manufacturers in the United States, Europe and Asia are. recovering from the cyclical slowdown in 2022/23 far more. gradually than expected at the start of the year.

On the other hand, the market has actually adjusted to the disruption of. diesel deliveries from the Middle East and Asia to Europe via the. Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

U.S. GAS

Portfolio financiers downsized bearish short positions in. U.S. gas following announcements of drilling and output cuts. from a number of major manufacturers in the United States.

Hedge funds and other money managers bought the. equivalent of 571 billion cubic feet (bcf) of futures and. alternatives in the two significant contracts connected to the rate of gas at. Henry Hub in Louisiana.

Previous bearish short positions were minimized by 361 bcf,. while 210 bcf of brand-new bullish longs were initiated, according to. records filed with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading. Commission.

Funds have acquired a total of 1,079 bcf in the last two. weeks, balancing out about half the 2,085 bcf sold over the. previous five weeks.

As a result, the combined position had actually been boosted to an internet. short of 595 bcf (16th percentile) up from a net short of 1,675. bcf (3rd percentile) on February 20.

In genuine terms, costs had been up to their least expensive for more. than three decades in late February, and with numerous brief. positions to be bought, the balance of dangers had swung. securely to the advantage.

Production cuts announced by numerous of the largest onshore. gas producers triggered a short covering rally, but so far it. has actually raised rates only marginally.

U.S. gas stocks were at the highest level for eight. years at the start of March, according to data from the U.S. Energy Details Administration.

Stocks were 529 bcf (+29% or +1.31 basic discrepancies). above the prior ten-year seasonal average and the surplus had. swelled from 64 bcf (+2% or +0.24 basic discrepancies) on. October 1.

Drilling cuts need to eventually force inventories back to. more normal levels but the rebalancing process will take time.

Many fund managers beware about becoming bullish after. calling the turning point prematurely 3 times currently in the. last 12 months.

Related columns:

- Oil costs rise as funds scale back bearish positions. ( March 4, 2024)

- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps costs under. pressure (March 1, 2024)

- U.S. gas excess gets hedge funds ultra bearish (February 26,. 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy

(source: Reuters)