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Stocks and the dollar remain steady at the start of a busy week
The global shares were trading steadily at record highs Monday, the first day of a week full of action that will likely see the U.S. Federal Reserve resuming its easing cycle and possibly leaving the door open for a series cuts. Bank of Canada will also likely cut rates this week by a quarter-point, while Bank of Japan and Bank of England should both hold their rates at the same level. Stocks in Europe rose by 0.3%, but MSCI's global index was just a hair away from its record highs of last week. S&P futures and Nasdaq Futures both remained steady. The markets are priced in for a 25 basis point Fed easing, bringing its funds rate down to 4.0-4.25%. Futures indicate a mere 4% chance that the Fed will ease by 50 basis points. The Fed's "dot-plot" projections of rates, and the guidance provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding the pace and extent of further easing will also be important. Investors will be disappointed if the futures market is anything but dovish. David Mericle is the chief U.S. economics at Goldman Sachs. We expect that the statement will acknowledge the softening of the labor market, but we do not expect any change in policy or an indication of a cut for October. On Sunday, U.S. president Donald Trump continued to attack the central bank by saying Powell is incompetent and harming the housing markets. Kathleen Brooks, XTB's research director, said that traders were bracing themselves for volatility in the days leading up to Wednesday's Fed announcement. Options markets are pricing in a 1% move in either direction. This would be the largest daily movement in recent weeks. The euro showed little reaction to Fitch downgrading France. The euro rose 0.1%, to $1.1738. This is a small increase from the recent high of $1.1780. The euro was slightly weaker than sterling trading at 86.42p, down by 0.1% for the day. The euro is supported by the steady outlook of EU rates. Last week, the European Central Bank said it was "in a good place" with its policy. This week, a number of ECB officials will be speaking. This includes President Christine Lagarde. The dollar also eased by 0.2% to 147.42 against the yen, and the Norwegian crown reached multi-month highs in relation to the euro, as well as a 2023 record against the dollar, ahead of Norges Bank's policy meeting this week. CHINA DATA MISSES Investors redoubled their bets on Chinese technology shares in the wake of Sino-U.S. Trade talks. On Monday, the second day of talks between U.S. officials and Chinese officials about their strained trading ties began in Madrid. Trump said that he is still in negotiations on the deadline for divesting Chinese short-video application TikTok. The data released on Monday revealed that the Chinese economy has lost momentum in August. A number of indicators, from industrial production to retail sales, were below expectations. Home prices fell 0.3% more in August as well, continuing a downward trend which has been in place since early 2023. Lynn Song, ING’s Greater China chief economist, said: "Given that the economy has slowed down in recent months, there is a strong argument for additional short-term stimuli efforts." "We continue to see a high possibility for another 10bp rate cut and 50bp reserve-requirement-ratio cut in the coming weeks." Oil prices rose on the commodities market as investors weighed the potential impact of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian refineries, which could disrupt the country's crude and fuel exports. Brent crude increased 0.2% to $67.143 per barrel. Gold was stable at $3.640 per ounce. This is just below the all-time record high of $3.673.95, set last week.
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Savannah Resources increases lithium reserves estimate at Portugal Mine project by 40%
Savannah Resources, a London-listed company, announced on Monday that it had increased its estimate of the lithium reserves in its project for a mine in northern Portugal by 40 percent after additional prospecting. The company announced that the estimated reserves of Barroso's spodumene deposit -- a mineral rich in lithium -- are now more than 39 millions metric tonnes, up from 28 million metric tones, which were already the largest deposit in Europe. Savannah stated in a press release that "this substantial increase in resources" increases the strategic importance for the project. It said that the company was a "major contributor of raw material for Europe's battery industry, as well as a long-term, significant value creator" in the region. The company plans to begin production in 2027. It will build four open-pit mines in northern Barroso to extract lithium annually for around half a million electric vehicle batteries. The success of Savannah's project in Portugal will be a test for Europe's ability reduce its dependency on lithium imports and other materials from China and elsewhere, which are essential to the shift to non-fossil energy consumption. Savannah, however, has met with strong opposition by local residents and ecologists, as it is located in the Barroso Region, which is a World Heritage Site for Agriculture since 2018. Barroso, Savannah's sole venture, is currently working on completing the project's final feasibility study as well as the environmental licensing process. Both are expected to be completed by the end the year. (Reporting and editing by Inti landauro, Susan Fenton, and Sergio Goncalves)
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Investors seek Fed guidance as gold pauses.
Investors stayed away from big bets on gold on Monday, as they waited for the U.S. Federal Reserve to meet this week. The central bank will likely cut interest rates at the meeting and provide more insight on how the rate of further easing is progressing. As of 0742 GMT, spot gold remained at $3,641.19 an ounce. Bullion rose about 1.6% in the last week and reached a record-high of $3,673.95 per ounce on Tuesday. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were down by 0.2% to $3,679.20. It is expected that the Fed would deliver a rate cut of 25 basis points. There are still doubts about the tone Jerome Powell is going to adopt at the end meeting, and what guidance he'll give for future policy decisions. Data released last week showed that U.S. consumer price indexes rose the most since seven months during August, mainly due to higher housing and food costs. However, a spike in the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits made the Federal Reserve confident in its plans to lower rates on Wednesday. According to CME FedWatch, traders are pricing in an almost certain 25 basis points (bps) reduction to the Fed’s key interest rate after the two-day meeting on September 17. There is a slight chance of a 50% reduction. In a low-interest rate environment, non-yielding gold bullion is often considered to be a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty. The Fed's meetings comes amid challenges including a legal dispute about its leadership, and U.S. president Donald Trump's attempts to exert more power over interest rate policy and central bank's role. Goldman Sachs warned that "in the case of gold, we believe the risks are skewed upwards for our forecast of $4,000/toz by mid-2026, but the increasing speculative position increases the risk of a tactical pullback, since positioning tends towards mean-reversion," the firm said in a Friday note. Platinum rose 1% to 1,404.72, while palladium rose by 1.1% to 1,209.80.
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Copper firms bet on US rate cuts, but supply concerns
Prices of copper rose on Monday as a result of the expectation that U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week, and persistent supply concerns. However, caution about the resumption of trade talks between China and the United States tempered gains. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract closed the daytime trading 0.36% higher, at 81,000 Yuan ($11371.77) per ton. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.07% to 10,075 tons after reaching its intraday high of $10,101 in the morning session. This was close to the five-month high of $10,126, which was reached on Friday. After a series of weak reports on the labor market, it is expected that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week. Analysts at ANZ said that the prospect of easing monetary policies improves outlooks and boosts confidence. Dollar-priced goods are cheaper for foreign buyers when the dollar is weaker. The prices were also boosted by a lingering supply concern, as the efforts to rescue seven miners at Freeport Indonesia’s Grasberg Mine were still ongoing one week after a heavy mudflow trapped them underground. The focus was also on U.S. and China negotiations in Madrid, to resolve the trade tensions between the two major economic powers. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said that the countries were Close to an agreement TikTok is a short video app. This came after Washington asked its allies for tariffs to be placed on imports of Chinese oil. Meanwhile, Beijing launched an anti-discrimination probe into U.S. policy on trade over chips, casting a shadow over the prospects of talks. SHFE Nickel rose by 1.01%. Lead advanced by 1.72%. Tin rose 0.41%. Aluminium fell 0.55%. Zinc edged down 0.02%. LME aluminium dropped 0.26%. Nickel added 0.55%. Lead slid by 0.32%. Tin and zinc were not much changed. A number of negative data from China, such as the outstanding total social finance (TSF) or falling home prices, also weighed on the sentiment and limited price gains. Click here to see the latest news in metals.
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Analyst: Ukraine will curb Indian diesel imports due to Russian oil relations
Enkorr, a Ukrainian energy consultancy, announced on Monday that Ukraine would restrict the importation of diesel fuel from India, a country which buys a large portion of its crude oils from Russia. A-95 said in a report earlier this month, that traders were forced to import diesel fuel from India due to the loss of an important Ukrainian oil refinery during this summer. Even the Ukrainian Defence Ministry has purchased some Indian fuel because it meets post-Soviet standard. Drones and missiles have been used by Russia to attack Ukrainian refineries of oil and fuel and their storage facilities. Enkorr reports that Ukrainian security agencies have ordered that all consignments imported Indian diesel fuel be tested in a laboratory to determine whether they contain any Russian components. Enkorr reported that Ukraine imported 119,000 tonnes of Indian diesel fuel during August, which is 18% of its total diesel imports. Before the full-scale Russian war that begins in 2022, Ukraine imported diesel mainly from Belarus to compensate for its lack of production. Since 2022 it imports mainly from European nations to the west. A-95 reported that the imports of diesel fell 13% on an annual basis in the first six months of this year to 2.74 millions metric tons. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton; Pavel Polityuk)
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Alamos divests Turkish unit in $470 million deal, ending $1 billion legal dispute
Alamos Gold, a Canadian mining company, announced late Sunday it would sell its Turkish subsidiary to a Middle East based mining firm for $470m. This will end a $1billion legal dispute that lasted years. Alamos is selling the Turkish unit of its mining conglomerate Nurol Holding to Tumad Madencilik Sanayi. Alamos has agreed to suspend any arbitration proceedings its Netherlands unit filed against Turkey in 2021, until certain milestones have been reached. Alamos' website states that the company has been active in Turkey since 2010. The miner halted the construction of its Kirazli Project in western Turkey, after mining concessions had expired. This was due to protests against this project. The firm filed a $1 billion lawsuit against Turkey, claiming "unfair and unfair treatment" in relation to the project. Alamos stated that the deal will close in the fourth quarter 2025. It added that the money it receives will be used to reduce its existing debt obligations as well as to support the projects the company is developing.
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India's palm oil imports in August hit a 1-year high due to festive demand and price advantage
A leading trade group said that India's palm-oil imports rose in August, reaching their highest level for more than a decade, due to the competitive price of soyoil, which encouraged refiners and retailers to increase purchases in advance of the holiday season. India's increased palm oil imports, as the largest buyer of vegetable oil in the world, should help top producers Indonesia, and Malaysia, reduce their inventories, and support benchmark Malaysian Palm Oil futures. Solvent Extractors' Association of India said that India's imports of palm oil in August increased by 15.76% to 990 528 metric tonnes, their highest level since July 2024. The industry trade group reported that imports of sunflower oil rose 28.53 percent to 257,080 tonnes, a record high for seven months. Imports soyoil fell 25.27%, to the lowest level since four months. The SEA reported that India imported 6,000 tonnes of canola oil in August for the first time since nearly five years. The SEA reported that the increase in palm oil and sunflower oil imported by India increased its total edible oil imports from 1.62 million tones per month, a 4.7% rise, reaching the highest level seen since July 2024. Mumbai-based dealer of a global trading house said that refiners were preparing for the festive season. Imports in September are expected to remain above 800,000 tonnes. In India, the demand for edible oils, especially palm oil, increases during festival seasons due to an increase in sweets and fried food consumption. India imports mainly palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. It also imports sunflower oil and soyoil from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. The SEA reported that India imported 589.283 tons of edible oils duty-free from Nepal during the first nine month of the marketing period ending in October. This was done under a regional trading pact.
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China's property sector is struggling, and iron ore has been a major contributor to this.
Iron ore futures prices ended Monday lower, despite gains in steel benchmarks and steelmaking components, due to persistent weakness in China's top consumer, the property sector. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped by 0.31%, to 796 Yuan ($111.75), per metric ton. As of 0703 GMT, the benchmark September iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down by 0.28% to $105.4 per ton. China's new house prices dropped by 0.3% in the month of August, compared to the previous one. This continues a downward trend which began in May 2023, and highlights weakness in the housing market demand. In China, however, the number of new bank loans rebounded after an unexpected decline in July. However, the recovery was less than expected as the government's efforts to reduce industrial overcapacity and the property slump continued to dampen demand for credit. China's crude-steel output fell 0.7% on an annual basis, and production in the first eight month of this year was down 2.8% from the same period last. Analysts from ANZ said that iron ore futures still posted a third weekly gain in a row last week. This was due to renewed activity at steel mills in China following the end of environmental production restrictions relating to a military display. According to Chinese consultancy Mysteel, the domestic demand for construction steel will recover in September due to better weather conditions and improved financial health in certain non-real estate industries. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also increased in price, by 4.4% and 4.62% respectively. Broker Hexun Futures stated in a report that coke and steel firms are increasing the restocking coking coal as Chinese National Day approaches. All steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained ground. Rebar increased by 0.93%. Hot-rolled coils increased by 0.87%. Wire rod strengthened 0.37%. Stainless steel gained 1.2%.
Duke Energy's new 2 GWs of US data centers to include minimum take agreements, CFO states
Duke Energy will consist of takeorpay provisions in its contracts for 2 new gigawatts of U.S. information centers in its area, as the energy continues to work out information of its power agreements with the services, Duke's chief monetary officer told Reuters on Thursday. As the technology industry's race for electrical power to power technologies like generative expert system drives up U.S. power need, electric energies have proposed new agreement structures to secure the public from higher power bills triggered by the data center buildout. Contracts for information centers and other Duke clients with power need at a single website of more than 100 megawatts would need payments for a minimum quantity of electrical energy regardless of usage, CFO Brian Savoy said, adding that any contracts would need to be approved by regulators. The brand-new data center customers, who have not been identified, have signed arrangements, recognized land they would utilize, however have not completed power contracts with Duke.
Now we're negotiating over the next few months on what the contracts would appear like, Savoy stated.
Conversations with the information center operators consist of whether they would co-invest in facilities required for the centers and whether there would be a special tariff rate to attempt to secure the public from rising power bills.
(source: Reuters)