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Nepal requested early warnings from China before the flood disaster.

Experts and officials from Nepal and China met in Kathmandu three months before the wall of mud, water and rock that hurled down a Himalayan Valley bordering Nepal and China killed hundreds.

The agenda for the meeting, held in the capital of Nepal on May 27, included 10 Nepalese officials and 12 Chinese officials, including those from the Tibet region, where the disaster occurred. They discussed ways to strengthen cooperation between the two countries to monitor and respond effectively to hazards such as floods, bad weather, and glacier-related hazards.

Participants called for joint measures to reduce risk, such as inventories of ice-lakes and hazards mapping.

Two Nepali officials said they didn't receive enough information from China about glacier risks and the water levels following the meeting. They feared that insufficient data sharing would hinder their ability to prepare and anticipate major disasters.

We wanted to know early if there were any glacier movements and movements in that area. This is what we still want," said Sauhardra Joshi, an hydrologist from Nepal's Flood Forecasting Division who attended the meeting.

CHINA SAYS ITS DATA SHARE HAS BEEN TIMELESS

Experts and officials have not placed blame on either side. The natural disaster will cost Nepal a tenth of its annual economic output. Nepali officials claim that the priority for them is to intensify their cooperation with China.

The Chinese foreign ministry has not responded to a question about the meeting in May or Nepal's request for more information.

Binod Paraajuli, a Nepali government hydrologist, told Binod that the Chinese refused to sign the agreement because they didn't have the authority to do so. They asked for further discussion.

The meeting was not reported in detail, nor were the Nepalese demands for greater cooperation to monitor the glaciers which threaten the communities on both sides.

In a statement posted on X, the Chinese embassy in Nepal stated that Beijing and Kathmandu have been in constant contact and made "substantial" progress at the May meeting on promoting disaster information sharing across borders.

Officials in Nepal expressed similar concerns in 2013. However, experts and officials warned that the slow progress they described was not a factor in the recent disaster. A glacier collapse unleashed an epic mudslide in both countries, which has left nearly 800 dead and more than 3,000 people missing.

The Chinese Embassy rejected criticisms from Nepali social media users who claimed that China failed to give adequate warnings. It said Chinese and foreign experts had significant difficulties monitoring hazards in remote Himalayan regions.

It said that Chinese teams shared "important information" with Nepal in a timely fashion.

Last year, Nepal expressed concern about a flooding in the same region, which was triggered by a sudden release of water in Tibet from a glacial ice lake. At least nine people died in Nepal, and more than a dozen are still missing.

Parajuli explained that "when the Chinese side observes heavy rainfall forecast in the Tibet region, they will provide us with this forecast and these observations." But "not for extreme events, such as landslides and avalanches."

China started sharing heavy rain forecasts in Tibet via WeChat and email about a month back, according to Parajuli.

TIMELINE FOR CALAMITY

In an email sent to Nepali officials 12 days prior to the disaster, the World Meteorological Centre of China warned them that a monsoon was predicted for the region from August 14-19.

China warned that "additional rainfall is expected across much of Nepal and we wish to bring your attention to secondary and cascading risks, including but not limited to flash floods and landslides."

The Chinese Embassy said that China had been sharing data, including on the lake formed from debris left over after last week's disaster.

Discussions over data sharing highlight the difficulty of monitoring, forecasting, and providing early warnings in a region dominated by geopolitical rivals such as China and India who control remote mountainous regions that hold vast quantities of snow and ice.

According to Austin Lord, senior Fellow at Washington's Stimson Center, the collapse of a glacier in an area that was relatively unmonitored was the cause of Wednesday's disaster. Lack of bilateral cooperation did not play a major role in Nepal's reaction, said Lord.

"That doesn't excuse the fact that it's not really a well articulated system." There is very little exchange between Nepalese and Chinese," said Lord. He is part of the team that supports Nepal's government in disaster and climate risk reduction.

"Chinese researchers have a greater capacity and have more resources to monitor than the Nepalese side in general."

Parajuli stated that the time it took for the torrent to reach Nepal is a good example of the importance of early warning systems.

According to the?surveillance video that has become the defining image of this disaster, around 8:32 am Nepal time on Tuesday, the deluge blasted a border crossing into Tibet as people tried to flee.

Parajuli received a call 26 minutes later from the head of Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority alerting him about a flooding on the Trishuli River. Parajuli and his team discovered that a border station monitoring station hadn't transmitted data since 8:40.

He said that the team tried to contact stations downstream, but they were unable to post data. This led them to believe the devices had been washed out.

Parajuli stated that after contacting local Nepali officials to confirm the flooding his team sent a public warning to mobile phone users around 9:13.

According to the Nepali government, the flood carried 57.4 millions cubic metres of water (2 billion cubic feet), more than twice as much as usual.

"HUGE GUSH of MUD Coming Straight At Us"

According to the Stimson Center, the floodwaters that swept through Nepal damaged 19 bridges, 40 km of highway and more than 10 percent of the country's electricity generation capacity.

"It wasn't water. Keshav Baral, a resident of Tupche Village, located about 25 km (15miles) downstream from the border, described a gush of mud that was coming straight at them. "I tried grabbing my wife's hands, but she was swept by the mud."

According to Nepali authorities, when a part of the glacier shattered and crashed to the valley's floor, hundreds of meters below, it unleashed flash floods of high speed.

The Hindu Kush Himalayas are home to millions of people, from Afghanistan to Myanmar. They contain the largest amount of ice in the world outside of the poles. There are 63,700 ice glaciers that cover nearly 56,000 sq km (22,200 sq miles), an area almost as large as Croatia. These glaciers can store up to 5,700 cu km (1,400 cu miles) of frozen water.

Basanta Adhikari is the director of Nepal's Tribhuvan University's Centre for Disaster Studies. He estimates that the chunk of glacier responsible for the latest disaster contained 5 million cubic meters of ice, rock and other debris.

According to a study from 2023 by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, climate change is driving glacier melting as snow cover decreases and snowfall becomes erratic.

The centre believes that these changes will lead to more floods and landslides as mountain communities are also faced with hazards such as erosion and sedimentation.

Many of Nepal's main river systems begin in Tibet and flow through one the most seismically active, flood-prone areas of the world.

Parajuli, Nepal's Minister of Home Affairs, said that Nepal will work with China on research and building systems to monitor avalanches as well as the release of water in glacial lakes - major risks to mountain communities.

He said that his department would propose an agreement for data sharing with China along the lines of one Nepal has with India. This will allow more frequent information about precipitation, river levels and not only high-precipitation predictions.

He said that Nepal would seek data from satellites every 10 minutes, so "we could warn and save our people." "Our primary goal is to not miss any future catastrophe."

(source: Reuters)