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The oil price continues to fall despite no progress in the US-Iran negotiations, and shipping around Hormuz is still disrupted.
The oil prices were marginally lower on Thursday, after big gains in the previous session. This was due to the stalemated?peace negotiations between Iran and the United States and both nations maintaining restrictions on trade flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures dropped 15 cents, to $101.76 per barrel. On Wednesday, Brent crude futures settled above $100 for the very first time in over two weeks. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 14 cents to $82.80. Both benchmarks closed Wednesday more than $3 higher after larger-than expected gasoline and distillate stock drawdowns in the U.S. and the lack of progress in peace talks. Despite the fact that U.S. president Donald Trump has extended a ceasefire following the request of Pakistani mediators to the two countries, Iran and the U.S.?restrict the transit of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz carried 20% of the daily global oil and LNG?supplies up until the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran at the end February. Iran has seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, tightening their grip on this strategic waterway. Trump has also maintained the U.S. Navy's blockade on Iran's sea trade. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who is also a top negotiator and is the Iranian parliament speaker, said that a complete ceasefire would only make sense if this blockade were lifted. Sources in shipping and security said that the U.S. military intercepted three Iranian flagged tankers and diverted them from positions near India, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka. Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire Tuesday was a reversal of his earlier warnings that Iran's bridges and power plants would be bombed. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt informed reporters that Trump had not set a 'end date' for the extended ceasefire. U.S. EXPORTS SET A RECORD HIGH The United States' total exports of crude and petroleum products rose by 137,000 barrels each day, reaching a new record of 12.88 million barrels. This was due to Asian and European countries buying up supplies following disruptions caused by the Iran War. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude stock levels rose, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell. The crude inventories rose by 1.9m barrels compared to expectations of a 1.2m barrel draw. Analysts had predicted a draw of 1.5 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 3.4m barrels, compared to expectations of a drop of 2.5m barrels. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue; Arathy S. Somasekhar)
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ROI-Bumper US tax refunds soften energy blow. McGeever: But not for much longer
Tax deadlines in the U.S. are April 15th. This date is often met with both anticipation and dread. The filing process can be a chore, but the possibility of a windfall refund is also exciting. This year's refund may be much larger than normal, and the timing could not be more perfect. Goldman Sachs economists estimate that tax refunds will be 17% higher this year than last, which would mean a windfall of $50 billion for consumers by the end May compared to the same time last year. The fuel price spike that followed the Iran War two months ago should provide a boost to the economy and consumers. Last month, it appeared that consumers were already preparing to receive their refunds to cover the record rise in gas prices. The figures released on Tuesday show that retail sales rose more than expected in March. The Atlanta Fed, citing this resilience, increased its GDPNow model's estimate of the first-quarter rate of growth from 0.9% to 1.2% annualized - the only upward revision for a whole month. The upturn is small, but welcome. The consumer outlook was relatively bright at the beginning of the year. However, the Iran War has dimmed it significantly and forced growth forecasts be cut. How long will any boost based on refunds last? April is expected to be a strong month for consumer spending. One-time, large refunds tend to be viewed as discretionary money and are spent rather than saved. This timeline means that the boost will fade as long as energy prices remain high, forcing consumers into dipping into their savings. SWALLOWING UP REBATES Morgan Stanley's economists provide a sobering assessment. The economists at Morgan Stanley predict that the average increase in tax refunds can only offset the spike in gasoline prices if this year's average pump price is not more than $3.60 a gallon. This figure is still above $4.00. The pump will eat up the rebates if prices don't fall sharply and quickly. Oxford Economics says that despite the windfall of rebates, consumer spending growth could be low in the second quarter, possibly dipping below 1%. Goldman economists are also not optimistic that consumers will be able to endure higher gas prices before they cut back on their spending. According to their baseline scenario, Brent crude will drop to $80 per barrel by the end of the year - from around $100 since the outbreak of the war on February 28 and $70 the previous day - causing a $70bn annualized hit to consumers. This headwind, at current prices is estimated to be $140 billion annually. Not So Fast Hold off calling for the U.S. consumers to capitulate just yet. The average household's balance sheet is in good shape, particularly with equity prices proving to be so resilient. The 'wealth' effect has been underestimated by those who predicted the end of the U.S. Consumer in recent years. According to Motio Research, the real household income has reached its highest level since the series began in 2010. This excludes the pandemic-distorted 2020 year. A consumer'stress index' released on Wednesday by the Kearney Institute shows that 37% U.S. consumers were stressed out about their debts and savings during the first quarter of this year, up from 10% at the end of last year. One persistent trend over the past few years has been the huge disconnect between what consumers say they feel and how their anxiety affects their spending. The consumers in lower income brackets, however, are more vulnerable because they spend a greater proportion of their incomes on energy. They are only responsible for a small portion of total U.S. expenditure, so headline figures could remain strong even though large segments of the populace are in serious financial difficulty. The bumper tax refunds will delay the increase in pump prices. But, as with all things crisis-related, the question is for how long. Save the date! On April 23, at 1300 GMT/9 a.m. ET, ROI columnists Jamie McGeever and Mike?Dolan will be joining LSEG in a webinar entitled "Markets Unpacked With Open Interest: Rethinking Safe Havens in Uncertain Times." Sign up here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Mexico's Economy Minister says that the country'shouldn't feel nostalgic' for zero-tariff days.
Mexico's Economy minister Marcelo Ebrard acknowledged on Wednesday that tariffs will likely remain in place on the country's automotive and steel sectors, regardless of whether or not a trade agreement with the U.S., Canada, and other countries is renewed. Ebrard said to reporters at an event in Mexico City on Wednesday that we shouldn't look back nostalgically on a time without tariffs. "We know that it's very hard to imagine tariffs disappearing in the automotive industry. Steel and aluminum have always been our priorities. We are trying to find ways to reduce tariffs. He made his comments just one day after it was reported that the U.S. The Trade Representative Jamieson Grer warned Mexico's steel and auto industries this week that they shouldn't expect President Donald Trump to remove tariffs from their sectors during the renegotiation. Ebrard is the leader of Mexico's USMCA negotiations, which will begin the week of the 25th. Greer said that she shared the same message to Mexican business leaders. She also repeated the message to U.S. legislators on Wednesday. Ebrard stated that "the world, the global trading system?we had based on free-trade--is unlikely to return." COMMITTED TARIFFS Greer said that Trump's trade policy has not changed. He told the U.S. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, that he intended to maintain tariffs on U.S. imported goods. Greer stated that "he's not going back to an old situation when we had no tariffs, and just allowed foreign goods made by workers from other countries to come in?without any fees to the detriment to domestic workers." "The president will use appropriate legal tools to impose tariffs." Mexico and Canada are looking at the USMCA as a means to 'provide relief from the steep tariffs Trump imposed last yea, which have caused difficulty for automakers and other industries in the?highly integrated North American economy. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on auto exports from Mexico, and Canada last year, while the USMCA had zero. Trump launched USMCA in 2020, calling it "the greatest trade deal ever." Automakers claim that Trump's 25% tariffs put Mexico and Canada in a worse position than other major auto-producing countries. Vehicles imported from Japan, South Korea, and the European Union face a 15% tariff while vehicles from Britain are subject to a 10% tax. Mexico's steel sector faces a U.S. 50% duty on commodity products of steel and aluminum and a 25 % duty for derivatives containing at minimum 15 % metals in weight. (Reporting and editing by David Lawder and Emily Green.
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Two deaths following a chemical leak in West Virginia
Officials said that two people died after a chemical spill at a silver catalyst production facility in Kanawha County, West Virginia, on Wednesday. In a Facebook post, the county commissioner said that the incident happened at Catalyst Refiners, in the unincorporated Community of Institute. They added that one person is?in a critical condition. Around 20 other people needed medical treatment. Ben Salango, the Kanawha County Commission president, said at a press conference that there would be investigations conducted on a national, state and even local level about this chemical release. County officials cited preliminary information to say they believe a chemical reaction took place, creating deadly hydrogen gas, as a cleaning and decontamination was being carried out in preparation for the closure of the?plant. Salango stated that Ames Goldsmith Corporation was the owner of the?plant. Frank Barber said that the deceased were employees of Ames Goldsmith Corporation. ABC News cited a statement from Barber. The company did not immediately respond to a comment request. (Reporting and editing by Scott Malone, Lisa Shumaker and Daphne Psaledakis)
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Coffee companies launch satellite-based tracking program to track deforestation
JDE Peet’s, one of the participating companies, announced in a statement that they were launching a system to track the deforestation associated with coffee cultivation. The Coffee Canopy Partnership uses satellite imagery provided by Airbus in combination with artificial intelligence models to map coffee farms, and identify areas where forest loss is nearby. The aim of the project is to identify the landscape correctly and work with local governments and communities to restore forests, and to prevent future deforestation. Tchibo, Louis Dreyfus Company and commodity traders Neumann 'Kaffee Group, Touton, and Sucafina are also participating in the program. The companies stated that the system would first cover 'East Africa', which includes Ethiopia, Tanzania?, Kenya?, Uganda?, Burundi? and Rwanda?. They aim to achieve worldwide coverage of coffee-growing areas by 2027. The EU Deforestation Regulation, which is expected to come into effect on December 30, 2020 for large companies and on June 30, 2027 for micro- and small businesses, will prevent coffee from being sold on EU markets if it has been grown on land classified as forest since December?2020. JDE Peets said: "This could exclude millions of smallholder farmers from important markets, despite the fact that they practice sustainable farming methods, because current maps classify their shade-grown coffee or agroforestry land incorrectly as forest." The initiative will also address the "historical lack of precise mapping data which has often resulted in coffee farm... being misidentified as a natural forest." Companies said that the system would be open to consultation for farmers, governments, and the coffee industry. (Reporting and editing by Bill Berkrot.)
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Gold prices rise on bargain hunting after a one-week low; U.S. Iran talks are in the spotlight
Investors are awaiting a possible resume of U.S. - Iranian peace talks. By 1:40 pm EDT (1740 GMT), spot gold had risen 1% in the previous session. It recorded its biggest daily loss since the 26th of March on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled at $4,753.00, up 0.7%. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst with Kitco Metals. He said, "Perceived bargain hunting after Tuesday's losses also features in (gold and) precious metals market." Geopolitically, Iran has seized two ships on Wednesday in the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the U.S. blockade of Iran will continue. A source familiar with the issue said he hadn't set a timeline for the ceasefire. However, there was no sign that peace talks would resume. At least three Israeli drone strikes in Lebanon have killed at least 3 people, adding to the pressure on the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The gold price is slightly higher on the hopes that Donald Trump's comments about the Strait of Hormuz will be resolved. Bart Melek is global head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. He said that the situation was very uncertain and tenuous. Since the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began -on February 28 - gold prices have fallen by about 11%, as 'rising oil prices are fueling inflation fears. Although bullion can be used as a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates reduce demand for the metal. Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chief Kevin Warsh, said on Tuesday that he made no promises to Trump regarding interest rate cuts as he sought to reassure?U.S. Senators considering his nomination should know that he would act independently from the White House while pursuing a broad range of reforms. Silver spot rose by 1.4%, to $77.80 an ounce. Platinum gained 2.1%, to $2,079.80. Palladium increased 1.3%, to $1,553.43. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao in Bengaluru, Nia William and Tasimzahid; reporting by Ishaan arora from Bengaluru)
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Union executive: US-based Virtus, in partnership with an Indian partner, will restart Congo copper miner Chemaf by 2027.
A union official has revealed that the U.S.-based Virtus 'Minerals' and its Indian partner Lloyds Metals & Energy plan to restart full production in Congolese cobalt and copper miner Chemaf by January 2027, following a Washington-backed acquisition. Virtus purchased the mines of Chemaf in March for $30m and agreed to take on Chemaf’s $900m debt. The Chemaf acquisition is the first deal on the ground under the U.S. - Democratic Republic of Congo partnership aimed at redirecting critical mineral supplies away from China and towards Western markets. Arum Awat is a Virtus executive who sent a memo to the staff on Monday. In a press release, Virtus declined to give a timeframe for the joint venture. It said that it would retain Chemaf’s employees and restart production quickly after years of uncertainty?at the company. The statement stated that "our?priority" is to complete everything as quickly as possible. This week, it was reported that Virtus had overstated their mining experience by highlighting the execution risks. Only PRODUCING MINE to Suspend Output The new owners informed workers in a Tuesday meeting that they would temporarily suspend production on the Chemaf site in Lubumbashi for up to two month for maintenance. Lokosha stated that the new owners have told them they plan to begin full production simultaneously in Kolwezi and Lubumbashi by January of next year. Awat wrote to his employees that the move was intended to improve operations and complete the Mutoshi copper and cobalt projects which had been delayed due to financial and operational issues. The 'Mutoshi Copper and Cobalt Project near Kolwezi, has been in a standstill since 2019. Processing was suspended due to weak cobalt and financing restrictions. This left the asset mostly dormant prior to the takeover. According to Lokosha and the note to staff, A.N. According to Lokosha, and a note sent to employees, Subramaniyam is the new CEO. The note stated that Lloyds Metals specialists will be working with Chemaf in an advisory role, and Chemaf's leadership will continue to remain in place in order to maintain continuity.
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Twenty suspected Boko Haram militants killed in attacks on northeast Nigeria
A local official reported that suspected Boko Haram terrorists on motorbikes had stormed and killed at least?20 people in two villages located in northeast Nigeria. The attacks are part of an offensive by Boko Harama and its Islamic State offshoot?ISWAP who have intensified deadly attacks against?military base and villages in Nigeria’s insurgency hit northeast. Mada Saidu said that the gunmen who attacked Pubagu, Mayo-Ladde, and Askira-Uba districts, in Borno state and the neighbouring adamawa state, on Tuesday afternoon, had beaten back local vigilantes. In Pubagu, at least 11 people died and in Mayo-Ladde, nine. Saidu reported that homes and shops had been?torched and food looted. Aid groups claim that Islamist militants have waged an insurgency for 17 years in order to create an 'Islamic state' in northeast Nigeria, killing thousands of people and forcing at least two million to flee their homes. This is despite major military campaigns to eradicate them. (Reporting Adewale?Kolawole from Maiduguri, Writing by Elisha?Bala-Gbogbo, Editing by Gareth Jones.)
Two people die after chemical leak in West Virginia
Officials said that two people died after a chemical 'leak' at a sliver scatalyst?plant?in Kanawha County in West Virginia on Wednesday.
In a?statement posted on Facebook by the county commission, it was revealed that the incident took place at Catalyst Refiners, located in the unincorporated Community of Institute. One?person is in critical condition, according to the statement.
Kanawha County's Deputy Attorney Christopher Settles stated that more than 30 people were transported to hospitals, including?seven first responders. Some of these individuals traveled as a precaution.
Ben Salango, President of the Kanawha County Commission, said that there would be national and state investigations into this chemical release.
Officials from the county said that they believe a chemical reaction created deadly hydrogen-sulfide during cleaning and decontamination at 'the plant to prepare for its closure.
Salango stated that Ames Goldsmith Corporation owned the factory.
ABC News, citing a statement by Frank Barber of the?Ames Goldsmith Corporation?, reported that those who died were company employees.
The company 'didn't immediately respond to a request for a comment. (Reporting and editing by Scott Malone; Lisa Shumaker, Neil Fullick and Daphne Psaledakis)
(source: Reuters)