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Oil bulls do not have conviction about sustainability of higher rates: Kemp

Financiers improved their exposure to Brent as the conflict in between Iran and Israel escalated however there was selling throughout the remainder of the petroleum complicated amid doubts about the sustainability of higher prices.

Hedge funds and other cash managers offered the equivalent of 23 million barrels in the 6 crucial petroleum futures and alternatives contracts over the 7 days ending on April 16.

Purchases of Brent (+31 million barrels) were more than offset by sales of NYMEX and ICE WTI (-35 million), U.S. fuel (-5 million), U.S. diesel (-5 million) and European gas oil (-9 million).

Brent is most exposed to production and shipping disturbances as a result of dispute in the Middle East and fund managers enhanced their net position to 335 million barrels (75th. percentile for all weeks given that 2013).

But much of this additional exposure appears to have turned. out from WTI, where funds sold at the fastest rate for 10 weeks. and the net position was cut to simply 183 million barrels. ( 31st percentile).

While fund managers had actually become strongly bullish on Brent. they were significantly bearish about potential customers for WTI.

In the premier NYMEX WTI contract, there was evidence of a. fresh cycle of short selling, which had started four weeks. earlier when rates climbed up above $80 per barrel.

Fund managers had actually improved brief positions comparable to 71. million barrels by April 16, up from 23 million on March 19.

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

In refined fuels, previous bullishness about a continued. deficiency of stocks and a more increase in rates had likewise. begun to lessen away.

The hedge fund community is broadly bullish about the. outlook for both crude and fuel prices but not with much. conviction.

Bullish long positions outnumber bearish brief ones by a. ratio of 3.60:1 which remains in only the 42nd percentile for all. weeks since 2013.

There are upside risks from Middle East conflict, production. restraint by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies, and a cyclical. economic growth in the United States

However these are offset by disadvantage risks from strong development in. non-OPEC output, consistent inflation, higher-for-longer. rates of interest, and a desultory economic healing in Europe and. China.

Escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has actually masked a. small wear and tear of financier belief about the outlook for. oil costs in current weeks.

As soon as the dispute appeared to have actually been included, with. Israel's restricted retaliation versus Iran, costs have. retreated.

U.S. GAS

Investors turned more bearish towards U.S. gas as. the seasonal inventory surplus continued to swell and stocks. climbed near to a record high for the time of year.

Hedge funds and other money supervisors offered the equivalent of. 173 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two essential futures. and choices agreements linked to costs at Henry Hub in. Louisiana.

The rate of selling was the fastest for 8 weeks since. mid-February, before some of the biggest manufacturers announced. they would be scaling back drilling and production.

As an outcome, funds held a net brief position of 483 bcf. ( 19th percentile for all weeks given that 2010) versus a net short of. 310 bcf (25th percentile) the week previously.

Working gas inventories amounted to 2,333 bcf on April 12,. the highest for the time of year considering that 2016 and before that. 2012.

Stocks were a huge 641 bcf (+38% or +1.38 requirement. variances) above the previous ten-year average and the surplus. shows no sign up until now of narrowing despite costs close to. multi-decade lows in real terms.

In December, the most recent month for which data is offered,. power generators paid the lowest seasonal rates for gas given that. 1974, after adjusting for inflation. Since then, the genuine. acquisition expense has likely fallen even further.

But the warmest winter on record has actually depressed usage. of both gas and electrical power, guaranteeing that stocks have. stayed incredibly high and delaying any rebound in. prices.

Related columns:

- Oil traders sanguine about threats from Israel-Iran conflict. ( April 18, 2024)

- Oil funds were bullish even before Iran released missiles. ( April 15, 2024)

- Investors bet on additional increase in U.S. gasoline prices. ( April 10, 2024)

- Oil funds turn bullish as Mideast conflict heightens. ( April 8, 2024)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)