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Venezuela's complicated and contested debt problem

Investors will be impacted by the size of Venezuela's debt and the creditors who hold it. This could make for one of the biggest sovereign debt restructurings ever. Venezuela hasn't published a comprehensive debt?statistics for years and sanctions in 2017 isolated it from the Western Financial World. Caracas said it would complete a comprehensive debt?assessment before the end of June. Investors now expect it to be released this month. However, it's unclear whether it will be shared with the public. The Financial Times reported that Venezuela is set to reveal a debt pile larger than expected, of $240 billion. Most analysts had estimated debts between $150 and $200 billion. What we know and what we don't about Venezuela's debt is listed below:

WHAT IS CARACAS'S BOND DUTY? Venezuela announced in May that it plans to restructure the outstanding commercial Eurobonds issued by Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), a state-owned oil company, and its government.

Since the default in 2017, these bonds have accrued interest. JPMorgan estimates that total bond claims including interest past due, amount to $102 billion.

A deal could be complicated by different terms. A PDVSA 2020 bond is backed up by a majority share in U.S. refiner Citgo. Older bonds are more susceptible to holdout litigation.

Elecar, the Electricidad de Caracas company, has also issued a $650-million electricity sector bond.

How much does Venezuela owe to other governments?

According to reports, the total bilateral lending of Venezuela is approximately $25 billion.

Bilateral creditors often restructure first. The Paris Club, a group of 22 official creditors nations, usually sets the standard for debt relief that other creditors are expected to provide.

Venezuela owes Paris Club members $8.69 billion.

AidData reports that Russia has extended at least 2 loans in the last 15 years. This includes $3.2 billion in 2017 restructured. Venezuela owes China an amount that is substantial through oil-backed loan, which could give Beijing a competitive edge over other creditors. JPMorgan puts the obligations between $13 and $15 billion. Beijing condemned the redirection in January of Venezuelan oil imports and said that "legitimate interests and rights of China and other nations in Venezuela must also be protected".

Venezuela is vague on plans to address the official debt. It says that this will be done through "institutional standardization", without revealing any details or if it would include a formal restructuring.

What does CARACAS owe to multilateral lenders?

The country owes about $4 billion to multilateral development banks, according to Fitch, chiefly to Caracas-headquartered CAF Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

These institutions are usually preferred creditors and do not expect to suffer losses during a reorganization.

How much do arbitration claims and court awards amount to?

Following expropriations by former President Hugo Chavez, more than 50 companies have filed?claims. Transparencia Venezuela's data and that of #PublicDebtIsPublic, which compiled the information, show that arbitration awards and court judgements total more than $20 billion. This excludes past due interest. However, this group cautions their data may not capture all claims. Some creditors seek recovery through the court-ordered sales of Citgo Petroleum, which require U.S. approval.

Arbitration awards and court judgments are legally binding claims that creditors hold, but there is no "collective mechanism" to bind the various creditors into a "negotiated agreement". Experts say that they account for at least 10% in Venezuela's debt.

The rest is up to you.

Where is the rest of the $40 billion?

Some debts were never litigated or arbitrated, which makes them more difficult to track. Repsol, a Spanish oil company, claims Venezuela owes them EUR4,55 billion ($5.16billion). Meanwhile, ENI, an Italian firm, said its back-due PDVSA bills would reach $3.3billion by the end of 2025, including $1 billion in interest.

Promissory notes, which are legally binding IOUs tied to export credits or supplier credits, may also be included. Investors were concerned that domestic debt could be added to the total, since it was harder to determine if they were legitimate. Investors may be concerned about the claims assessment and debts included without an external audit, or involvement by institutions like IMF or World Bank. Venezuela was ranked 180th among 182 countries in Transparency International’s 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index. The inclusion of claims deemed to be valid for the debt restructuring area could cause controversy, as they could increase the total debt and result in greater losses for creditors.

(source: Reuters)