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INSEE predicts that the French economy will grow by 0.7% by 2026, as a result of the oil shock hitting consumers.

INSEE predicts that the French economy will grow by 0.7% by 2026, as a result of the oil shock hitting consumers.
INSEE predicts that the French economy will grow by 0.7% by 2026, as a result of the oil shock hitting consumers.

The French economy is set to grow modestly in '2026, as a spike in oil prices squeezes consumers. This will only be partially offset by a recovery in industrial production, according to the national statistics agency INSEE. INSEE's latest outlook forecast that the euro zone's 2nd-largest economy will grow?0.7% in this year following a 0.9% growth last year. The oil price spike caused by the Iran War would be a 0.2 to 0.3 point drag on the economy.

INSEE stated that as companies pass higher costs on to consumers, the households will 'bear the brunt' of the energy crisis due to a weakened labour market, which limits their?ability?to secure higher wages.

French industrial companies fare better than consumers, who are cutting back on spending and saving. Chemicals producers and refiners have gained market share over Middle East competitors affected by the disruption of Gulf trade.

INSEE stated that the shipbuilding and aerospace industries will support economic growth, as full civilian and military orders and shipments are expected to increase 10% this year.

After a 0.1% decline at the beginning of the year, the?growth rate is expected to increase to 0.3% on a quarterly basis.

In the third and fourth quarters of this year, growth is expected to slow down to just 0.1%.

It said that EU-harmonised prices are expected to increase from 2.4% to 3.0% in December, as rising oil prices slowly trickle down to other costs. Reporting by Leigh Thomas, Editing by Gareth Jones

(source: Reuters)