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If the Iran war continues, Brazilian pulp giant Suzano expects prices to rise for toilet paper and tissues worldwide
Brazilian pulp giant Suzano announced on Friday that toilet paper, tissue and diaper prices will increase globally as companies try to cover higher transportation and 'chemical' costs if the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran continues. Suzano is the largest producer of pulp in the world, with a market capitalization of more than $60 billion. This pulp is used to manufacture Kimberly-Clark Cottonelle toilet papers, Kleenex tissues and sanitary products, as well as diapers, cardboard packaging, and other everyday items. The Iran War has caused a spike in oil prices, which have increased Suzano’s costs for shipping, trucking and rail. Paulo Leime is the managing director of Suzano for Europe, Middle East and Africa. Leime stated that "it will put pressure on the paper prices." "If this crisis continues...inflation should be back across ?multiple products, not only paper and tissue." He did not provide any details on when prices could start to increase. His comments reflect widespread concerns that rising prices for food, petrol, and other basic goods could increase inflation, putting pressure on households. Suzano, he said, has hedged against rising prices for certain raw materials including oil. However, indirect costs for chemicals that are key to pulp production such as caustic soda, sulphuric acids, and other chemicals, have also risen. He warned that the "significant impact" had been felt on the business in the Middle East, where it holds a significant share of the market in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain and Qatar. The pulp industry, which is the fourth most energy-intensive sector in the economy, is particularly affected by the rising energy prices. Since the beginning of the war, the company's share price has fallen by?more than 15 percent. Leime said that Suzano’s production will not be affected by rising energy prices, as its industrial sites are energy-independent. Leime stated that the major?impacts will be on fuel prices. Leime stated that Suzano now ships pulp to the Middle East via the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal, paying for "expensive trucking" through Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Richa Naidu is the reporter. (Editing by Josephine Mason, David Gregorio and David Gregorio.)
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Bondholders of Ukraine's Naftogaz hire lawyers to prepare for a restructuring
Holders of bonds issued by Ukraine's Naftogaz, the state energy giant, have hired lawyers to prepare for what appears to be a second debt restructuring since Russia's invasion in 2022. Source familiar with the matter confirmed that the funds hired Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton - the same firm which represented VR Capital and bondholders when Naftogaz wrote off its debt in?2023. In the face of ongoing Russian attacks, the Ukrainian state energy company, which has recently hired Rothschild to be its debt advisor, is struggling with how to pay a repayment of nearly 700 million euros ($821million) due in July. IFR reports that the company's chief executive Sergii Koretskyi, and Taras Pasazhko, acting chief financial officer, held a conference call with investors to discuss the impending payment crunch. Naftogaz, the largest state-owned enterprise in Ukraine is not eligible for a formal guarantee from the state. Since the start of the war, the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development have provided financing to the firm of over $2 billion. Credit rating firm Fitch warned in December that Naftogaz might be headed for a restructuring because of the 'increased costs of buying natural gas? and after Russia responded to Ukraine refusing to renew its transit agreement with Gazprom, by bombing their infrastructure.
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Peru cancels approval of Southern Copper's Tia Maria project
The mining ministry announced on Friday that the Peruvian 'government' has withdrawn an important authorization for Southern Copper's Tia Maria Copper Project and sent it back to authorities for review. This is a new obstacle for this long-stalled project. Tia Maria is one of the largest mines in Peru and the third largest copper producer in the world. Its target start date is late 2027, after more than a decade of local opposition by farmers and residents. The ministry of mining did not explain why it had revoked the permission to "start exploitation activities" issued in October. However, they said that a new evaluation was being conducted for transparency and legal clarity. In a press release, it stated that "the file will be sent?to General Directorate of Mining which will issue?a new announcement in strict compliance with guidelines established by Mining Council and current regulation." Southern Copper, owned by Grupo México and the top copper producer in Peru last year, has declined to comment. The $1.8 billion Tia Maria Project is about a quarter completed and will produce 120,000 tons of copper per year. Residents and farmers in the area have been 'afraid' of the mine for a long time. They fear that it will pollute and endanger water supplies. Six people were killed and dozens of others injured in violent?protests held against the project between 2011 and 2015. Southern Copper also develops several other projects in Peru including Los Chancas, Michiquillay and others as part of an investment plan for $10.3 billion over the next decade. The company already operates the Toquepala and Cuajone mines, as well as the Ilo refining plant in southern Peru. (Reporting and Writing by Marco Aquino; Editing by Daina-Beth Solomon, Christina Fincher, and Natalia Siniawski)
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US Trade Court weighs the legality of Trump’s 10% global tariff
A U.S. Trade?court considered Friday the legality of President Donald Trump's 10% global import -tax, which many states and small business claim circumvents a U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidating most of his previous tariffs. Two small businesses and a group of 24 mostly Democratic-led states sued the Trump Administration to stop the new tariffs that went into effect February 24, 2019. The hearing will be conducted by a panel of three judges of the U.S. Court of International Trade. Oregon's attorney Brian Marshall said that the judges should block the tariffs of 10% rather than allow them to expire according to the usual 150-day time frame, in order to prevent?Trump invoking various laws to keep the tariffs indefinitely. Marshall stated that "we have a series of tariffs which are always in place, this is a problem." Marshall said that the tariffs are based on an archaic law meant to protect?U.S. Dollar from sudden depreciation during the 1970s when dollars were exchangeable for gold held at Fort Knox. He claimed that the authority was intended to "resolve" significant "balance of payments deficits," but Trump could not repurpose it in order to address routine trade imbalances. In his second term Trump made tariffs "a central pillar" of his foreign policies, and claimed sweeping authority to impose tariffs without the input of Congress. The administration said that global tariffs were a legal and proper response to the persistent trade deficit that is caused by the U.S. importing more goods than they export. White House spokesperson Kush Desai stated that "President Trump uses the executive powers given to him by Congress in a lawful manner to address our nation's balance-of-payments crisis." Trump imposed new tariffs in accordance with Section 122 of Trade Act of 1974. This section authorizes import duties of up 15% for a maximum of 150 days during "large and severe United States balance of payments deficits" or prevent an imminent depreciation of dollars. Small businesses and the states argue that the Trade Act's authority to impose tariffs is only meant to deal with short-term monetary crises, while routine trade deficits don't match the economic definition for "balance of payments deficits." Trump?announced new tariffs on the 20th of February, the same day that the Supreme Court delivered a stinging blow to him when it struck down a large swath tariffs he imposed under International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The court ruled that the IEEPA did not grant him the 'power he claimed. Before Trump, no U.S. President had?used Section 122 or the IEEPA to impose tariffs. These two lawsuits are not challenging other Trump tariffs imposed under traditional legal authority such as the recent tariffs on imports of steel, aluminum, and copper. Dietrich Knauth is the reporter; Noeleen Walder and Lisa Shumaker are the editors. Franklin Paul, David Gregorio, and Noeleen Walder are responsible for editing.
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The gasoline pump takes away what the Trump tax breaks gives.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, proclaimed in February that this year's refunds were "substantially higher than ever before" thanks to individual tax breaks approved by 2025. He told taxpayers they should think of him as soon as their funds reached their bank accounts. "Don't use all this money at once!" He wrote this on the Truth Social platform. The gasoline pump is eating up the tax refunds from last year's Republican tax-cut legislation. This includes tax breaks for tips, Social Security retirement, overtime pay and car loan interest. Oil prices remained close to $100 per barrel on Friday, despite a tenuous truce in the U.S.-Iran war. The Strait of Hormuz was still closed. Even if the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% the world's supply of oil, reopens in the near future, fuel prices may continue to rise for several months. This is according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It predicts that global benchmark Brent crude will average $96 per barrel this year. Rystad Energy estimates that the destruction of energy infrastructure in the Gulf will have a negative impact on future production. This figure may rise as the attacks continue. Tax breaks will have the least impact on Americans who earn less and spend more money on gasoline. U.S. consumer price jumped the most since nearly four years, up 0.9% in March. This was due to the record-breaking increase in gasoline prices, largely because of the global oil price spike and the continued pass-through of tariffs. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed this on Friday. The Middle East conflict could cause higher costs for fuel, fertilizer and aluminum, as well as other inputs. Food inflation, and other price increases may also eat into any remaining refunds. According to the latest Internal Revenue Service data, as of March 27, 2025's average refund was $3,521. This is an increase of $351 or 11.1% from the previous year. The figures may change before the deadline for filing taxes on April 15, Wednesday. Morgan Stanley's estimate is $560, the conservative Tax Foundation's estimate is $611, and the U.S. Treasury's estimate of $1,000. Some of the relief could come from reduced income withholding, or lower quarterly tax payments for individuals. TAX REFUNDS TURNING Into ECONOMIC CUSHION Economists 'at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research' estimate that war-driven price peaks have pushed Americans' annual average gasoline costs for this past year up by $857. Brent futures traded at $99 per barrel on March 23, about $2 more than Friday, and the Strait of Hormuz was expected to reopen by April 10. Democrats in the Joint Economic Committee in Congress estimate Americans spent an additional $8,4 billion on gasoline in the first month after the Iran War. They based their estimates on data provided by the motorist advocacy group AAA and Edmunds.com, as well as federal data on gasoline consumption. This figure represents nearly a quarter of the $26.5billion increase in total IRS refunds from March 27 to date. Professor of Economics at Stanford University, Neale Mahoney said that gas prices were the most important price in the economy. The impacts are modest in the macro-scenario, but they can have a big impact on the kitchen-table economy of a family and other things they pay attention to. Families who were expecting a larger refund or planning an expensive summer vacation this year, may decide to cut back on their plans. As higher prices for diesel, fertilizer and jet fuel spread through the economy, grocery bills are also expected to increase. Analysts are now reducing their U.S. GDP and consumption forecasts by just a few tenths. Morgan Stanley expects that in 2026,?consumption will slow down to 1.7%, from 2.1%?in 2025. Durable goods are expected to take the biggest hit. Oxford Economics has reduced its global GDP forecast for 2026 from 3.0% to 2.6%, which is well below recent years. Homeowners can now take advantage of bigger deductions Most of the tax breaks in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed by the Republican-controlled Congress last year ?were retroactive to the start of 2025, so most of the first-year benefits will come through claimed income deductions. This change would result in a refund increase of $138 for those who fall into the 12% tax bracket with incomes between $11,926 and $48,475. This would result in a $138 refund for those who fall into the 12% bracket and have incomes between $11,926 and $48,475. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the overtime deduction a "home run" last week, with 25% of filers claiming that it. One of the largest breaks, the $30,000 increase in the deduction of state and local tax paid, requires itemization. This makes it largely out of reach for non-homeowners, who do not have mortgages or property taxes. Tax Foundation data shows that it's only when tax returns are in the range of market income of $71,659 - $126,348 that taxpayers have any money left after paying for their higher fuel costs. Market income is adjusted gross income plus tax-exempt interests, employer-sponsored pension and health benefits, and other items. Tax Foundation data shows, however, that even if you earn up to $37 486, the tax cuts are greater for those in the top 0.1%.
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Weekly gain on gold heads, US-Iran truce at the forefront
Gold prices rose on Friday - and headed for a week's gain - as the U.S. Dollar weakened. Gold spot rose 0.4%, to $4.780.22 an ounce at 11:11 am. ET (1511 GMT). This week, it has gained more than 2%. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.3% to $4.805.40. Gold buyers are carefully reclaiming the narrative this week, with higher lows each day. The tentative ceasefire is helping. Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, said that a significant battle is expected ahead of $5,000. A break above this level could re-ignite a bull run. The ceasefire, which has been in place for two days, has stopped a U.S.-Israeli air strike campaign on Iran. However it has not yet 'eased the blockade of Strait of Hormuz and quell the parallel conflict between Israel and Iran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. David Meger is director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that as tensions in Middle East have de-escalated, the dollar has come under pressure. This has led to gold being well supported. The U.S. Dollar?was on course for a drop of a week, making gold priced in greenbacks cheaper for holders other currencies. The data showed that U.S. consumers prices rose by the most in four years during March, as war-related oil prices soared and tariffs continued to be passed through. A persistently high level of inflation restricts central banks' ability cut interest rates. Although bullion can be seen as a hedge against inflation, geopolitical unrest and uncertainty, it loses its appeal in an environment of high interest rates due to the lack of yield. Gold demand in India increased slightly this week, ahead of a major festival, despite the fact that elevated prices weighed down on sentiment. Premiums in China, however, decreased. Silver spot rose by 1.8% per ounce to $76.45, platinum dropped 1.9% to 2,062.25 and palladium also fell 1.9%, to $1,528.41. All three metals are expected to see gains this week. Ashitha Shivprasad reports from Bengaluru, Ni Williams edits.
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Sources say that the US is likely to extend its waiver on Russian oil to reduce the shock of the Iran war.
Two sources with knowledge of the matter said that President Donald Trump’s administration will likely extend a waiver as early as Friday allowing countries to purchase some sanctioned russian oil and petroleum. Since mid-March, the U.S. Treasury Department allows purchases of Russian oil at sea through a 30-day waiver. This waiver expires April 11. It is part of efforts by the U.S. and Israel to control global energy costs during?the U.S./Israel war against Iran. Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian presidential envoy, had stated that this move would "free up 100 million barrels" of Russian crude oil. This is equivalent to almost one day's global production. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trump met in the Oval Office Thursday to "talk about extending waivers" and both agreed that it was a good idea. The White House and Treasury Department officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The partial closure of Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices to spike since the Iran War, due to the fact that 20% of world oil and gas used daily was transported through this strait before the conflict. Trump and the Republican Party are concerned about rising fuel prices as they prepare for November's midterm elections. The International Energy Agency, a 32-nation organization, has stated that the Middle East war is causing the largest oil supply disruption in history. The waivers could complicate the West's attempts to deny Russia revenue for its conflict in Ukraine, and put Washington at odds?with its allies. The European Commission's President, Ursula von der Leyen, has stated that it is not time to relax sanctions on Russia. (Reporting and writing by Timothy Gardner, Richard Valdmanis and Jarrett Renshaw; Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw, Dmitry Zhdannikov)
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Swedish government to buy majority stake in Videberg Kraft
The Swedish government announced on Friday that it intends to 'take a 60% share in the nuclear development company, 'Videberg Kraft. It is looking to start construction of a newest generation of reactors to replace its old atomic power plants. The government said that nuclear power was vital for meeting the expected increase in electricity demand as industries and transport sectors move away from fossil fuels. The critics say that renewables such as onshore wind are cheaper and quicker to construct. "Sweden has a nuclear nation." In a recent statement, Deputy Prime Minister Ebba busch stated that the government is now clarifying its role and responsibility in the development of nuclear energy. The government said that it would ask the parliament for approval to purchase shares in Videberg Kraft as well as a capital infusion at a cost of approximately 1.8 billion Swedish crowns (about 195 million dollars) in the near future. The government will also seek an?order for funding to the company in the amount of up 34.4 billion dollars during the construction period for new reactors. Videberg Kraft, owned by Swedish energy group Vattenfall to 80% and a group of Sweden’s largest companies to 20% by a group. The government wants Sweden to build the equivalent of 10 full-size nuclear reactors to replace the six that are currently operating by 2045. The government is offering cheap loans to developers and price guarantees for 5,000 MW to overcome the unwillingness of the private sector to fund new reactors. Recent builds in France and the UK have been 'hit with massive cost overruns and delays. Vattenfall’s 'Videberg Kraft' subsidiary is planning to build several small modular reactors with a combined capacity of around 1,500 Megawatts at its Ringhals Nuclear Facility in south-west Sweden. It applied for funding in December. Sweden's electricity generation is largely fossil-free. Around 40% of the power comes from hydroelectric power, while 29% is from nuclear power, 21% wind power, 8% thermal power, and 2% solar power.
The weekly losses in long-dated UK gilts are due to the rebounding oil prices
Oil prices rose again on Friday, causing a loss for long-term British government bonds. This wiped out the gains made earlier in this week by the gilt market following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and 'the United States.
The performance of gilts was below that of similar U.S. debt, German debt and French bonds. This reflects Britain's vulnerability due to the fallout caused by rising energy costs. Britain is heavily reliant on natural gas, and its public finances are stretched, making it difficult to provide state support.
Long-dated gilts have been increasingly affected by fiscal worries.
The yield on 20-year bonds, which moves in the opposite direction to the price of the bond, rose 11 basis points today at 14.45 GMT, and is on course for a four basis point weekly rise despite the fact that it had fallen on Wednesday following the news of the ceasefire.
The optimism that the ceasefire would hold gave a modest boost on Friday to the share prices. However, the global bond markets were impacted by the rising oil price on the back of reports that attacks on Saudi energy plants had reduced the kingdom's production.
The Strait of Hormuz is also largely closed to tanker traffic.
Emma Moriarty said that spikes in gilt rates have become more common in recent years, as the UK economy has been left vulnerable by high public debt levels and anaemic growth.
She said inflation-linked bonds performed better than conventional gilts, unlike the "mini-budget crisis" of 2022 that was triggered by concerns about the fiscal costs of former Prime Minister Liz 'Truss tax reduction plans.
Investors have been willing to pay more for inflation-protected bond, especially at the short end where our funds are located, Moriarty stated.
The yields on short- and medium-dated bonds rose by 6-8 basis points in a single day.
Investors fully priced in a quarter-point increase in the Bank of England's interest rates over?the rest of 2026, and roughly 60% of a subsequent one. Investors bet on four rate increases by December at one point in the last month. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton, Christina Fincher and Andy Bruce)
(source: Reuters)