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Alberta projects C$9.4 billion deficit on lower oil prices

Alberta projects C$9.4 billion deficit on lower oil prices
Alberta projects C$9.4 billion deficit on lower oil prices

Alberta, Canada's oil-producing province, announced a C$9.4 billion ($6.87billion) budget deficit for the fiscal year 2026/27 on Thursday. This was a violation of its own rules regarding deficit financing. The province blamed lower global crude prices as a major factor in the decline of its resource revenues.

Alberta is vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices, which has prompted the government to undertake a 'broad review' of its finances and expenditures, with the aim of restoring budget sustainability over the long-term.

Alberta has the third largest oil reserve in the world, Canadian oil sands. Its economy is heavily dependent on the global crude oil prices which plummeted by 2025 because of concerns over an oversupply.

Oil and gas companies pay a lot of taxes and royalties to the provincial government, which is used for funding public services such as healthcare and education.

Budget documents estimate that non-renewable resources will account for 18% (compared to 21% in 2025/26) of the total revenue for the province.

Alberta predicts the benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil price to average $60.50 a barrel in 2026/27. This is down from $74.34 only two years ago. Alberta's forecast of a C$4.1bn deficit for the fiscal year 2025/26 is expected to lead to a decline in corporate profits and incomes.

Alberta also projects budget deficits between C$7.6 and C$6.9 for 2027/28, and 2028/29. This would violate the provincial legislation that prohibits more than three consecutive years of deficit financing. The projected deficit for 2026/27 is also C$4.5 billion larger than what's allowed under provincial law.

"We made these rules and I'm breaking them." Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner said to reporters that it bothers him more than anyone else. The province will seek to amend its fiscal regulations going forward.

Alberta's government stated that it would need a WTI oil price between $74-$77 per barrel in order to balance its budget for 2026/27.

According to the province, its budgetary problems are also a result of rapid population growth in recent years. This has been greater than any other province in Canada. Reporting by Amanda Stephenson, Calgary; editing by Nik Williams

(source: Reuters)