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Dmitriev, Putin's envoy to Ukraine and the US, says that all three countries are close to finding a 'diplomatic' solution on war
Kirill Dmitriev is the special envoy of Russian President Vladimir Putin for investment and economic co-operation. He said that he believed his country, United States, and Ukraine were close to finding a diplomatic solution in order to end Russia's conflict in Ukraine. Dmitriev told CNN that, despite what the U.S. President said, a meeting between Donald Trump, the Russian president, and Putin has not been cancelled. The two leaders are likely to meet at a future date. The summit was postponed on Tuesday after Russia rejected an immediate ceasefire, casting a shadow over any negotiations. Trump cancelled his planned meeting with Putin because he felt the timing of the event was not right and that diplomatic efforts to end the war had not progressed. Dmitriev said on Friday that "I think Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine are in fact quite close to a solution diplomatically." Dmitriev did not provide any details in his remarks. European nations have been working with Ukraine to develop a new ceasefire proposal along the current battle lines. This week, European diplomats said that the idea was based on ideas already being discussed and pushed for the United States to play a key role. Dmitriev said that President Zelenskiy's move to acknowledge the battle lines was a major one. "His previous position was to leave Russia completely. So, in fact, I believe we can work out a diplomatic solution." In February 2022, Russia began its massive invasion of Ukraine. Last week, Trump announced that he would be meeting with Putin in Hungary soon to try and end the war. Putin, however, has refused to make any concessions. Russia has demanded for years that Ukraine cede more land before any ceasefire. Dmitriev’s long-planned visit to the United States coincides with the newly announced U.S. sanction on two of Russia’s largest oil companies, a move meant to press Putin to end this war. Dmitriev stated that despite the decision, the dialogue between Russia and United States would continue. Dmitriev said earlier that "it is certain only possible if Russia’s interests are considered and treated with respect". Dmitriev refused to reveal who he met and predicted the U.S. sanctions on oil would have a negative impact. Dmitriev stated that the new taxes will increase the price of gasoline at American gas stations. Axios, a U.S.-based news outlet, reported that Dmitriev will meet Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff on Saturday in Miami. Dmitriev was quoted by the Russian state news agency TASS as saying he will also meet with other people whom he didn't name.
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Stocks rise after US inflation data, but US dollar remains flat
The major stock indexes rose Friday. All three major U.S. indexes posted record closing highs following news that U.S. Inflation rose less than anticipated last month. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index was almost flat. After a 0.4% increase in August, the U.S. Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3%, which was slightly below the 0.4% expected. This reinforced expectations that Federal Reserve policymakers will reduce interest rates during their next meeting. "Today's data on inflation shows that we are not in a similar crisis to 2022. Prices are rising, but in a controlled manner. Callie Cox is the chief market strategist for Ritholtz in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Fed is expected to reduce rates two more times this year, with a quarter-percentage-point cut baked in for the October 28-29 meeting, according to LSEG calculations using rate futures. The Canadian dollar barely responded to the announcement by U.S. president Donald Trump on social media, that he would end all trade negotiations with Canada. Last week, the Canadian dollar was almost flat against the greenback. Wall Street indexes were also lifted by positive earnings reports. Ford Motor shares rose 12.2% as the company exceeded third-quarter profit estimates. Analysts expect the S&P 500 to grow earnings by 10.4% on an annual basis in the third quarter. According to LSEG, this is an increase from the estimated growth of 8.8% at the beginning of the month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 472.51 points or 1.01% to 47,207.12. The S&P 500 gained 53.25 points or 0.79% to 6,791.69, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 263.07 points or 1.15% to 23,204.87. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and blue-chip Dow both recorded their biggest weekly percentage gains since the month of August. Apple and Microsoft are among the five of the seven U.S. firms at the heart of the artificial-intelligence boom. The U.S. market has soared this year and some analysts are predicting a bubble. MSCI's index of global stocks rose 6.28 points or 0.63% to 1,001.37, and reached an all-time record of 1,002.96. The U.S. inflation figures were also a boost to the European share market, which closed at an all-time high. The pan-European STOXX 600 ended the day up 0.23%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket currency) fell by 0.02%, falling to 98.92. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.1%, reaching $1.1629. The dollar gained 0.14% against the Japanese yen to reach 152.8. Data showed that the business activity in the Eurozone grew more rapidly than expected in October. Euro zone government bond yields rose. Treasury yields in the United States were barely changed, but modestly higher. The benchmark 10-year yield briefly fell after the CPI report, but it was up 1.2 basis point (bps) to 4% at its last update. The yield was however down by about one basis point (bps) on the week. This is its fourth consecutive weekly decline. The oil prices that had risen by 5% on the previous Thursday, after the U.S. announced sanctions against major Russian oil companies began to fall on Friday, as doubts spread on the market regarding the Trump administration's willingness to enforce the sanctions. U.S. crude oil fell 29 cents, settling at $61.50 per barrel. Brent crude eased 5 cents, settling at $65.94. Spot gold dropped 0.57%, to $4101.29 per ounce.
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Stocks rise after US inflation data, but US dollar remains flat
On Friday, major stock indexes rose with U.S. shares reaching record highs on the news that U.S. Inflation rose less than anticipated last month. The U.S. Dollar Index was almost flat. After a 0.4% increase in August, the U.S. Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3%, which was slightly below the 0.4% expected. This reinforced expectations that Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates during its policy meeting next Monday. "Today's data on inflation shows that we are not in crisis like 2022. Prices are rising, but in a controlled manner. Callie Cox is the chief market strategist for Ritholtz in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Fed is expected to reduce rates two more times this year, with a quarter-percentage-point cut baked in for the October 28-29 meeting, according to LSEG calculations using rate futures. The Canadian dollar barely responded to the announcement by U.S. president Donald Trump on social media, that he would end all trade negotiations with Canada. The Canadian dollar last fell 0.28% against the greenback, at C$1.4. Intel shares rose by 0.3% on Friday after the company's results beat expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 562.73 points or 1.21% to 47,297.34. The S&P 500 rose 66.16 or 0.98% to 6,804.60, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 297.83 or 1.30% to 23,239.63. Apple and Microsoft are among the five of the seven U.S. firms at the heart of the artificial-intelligence boom. The U.S. stock market has soared this year and some analysts are predicting a bubble. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 7.63 points or 0.77% to 1,002.72. The STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.23%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) was unchanged at 98.94. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.08%, reaching $1.1626. The dollar gained 0.16% against the Japanese yen to reach 152.85. Data showed that the business activity in the Eurozone grew more rapidly than expected in October. Euro zone government bond yields rose. The 10-year Treasury yield was briefly lower after the CPI report. The yields on longer-dated U.S. bonds increased after a University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed a decrease in the index but an increase in inflation expectations for the next five years. The benchmark 10-year U.S. note yield increased 1.4 basis points, to 4.003% from 3.989% at the end of Thursday. Oil prices After a 5% rise on Thursday, after the U.S. imposed sanctions against major Russian oil companies. U.S. crude oil fell 29 cents, settling at $61.50 per barrel. Brent crude eased 5 cents, settling at $65.94. Spot gold dropped 0.32%, to $4111.97 per ounce. Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch and Elizabeth Howcroft, both in New York, with additional reporting from Laura Matthews, also in New York, and editing by Toby Chopra and Joe Bavier in New York, Alison Williams in New York, Edmund Klamann, Richard Chang, and Toby Chopra.
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The FOREX-US Dollar is set to gain modestly after the soft inflation data
The U.S. Dollar was almost flat Friday, after it had dipped following new inflation data showing that U.S. consumer price increases were lower than expected in September. This kept the Federal Reserve on course to reduce interest rates next week. Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3% in September and by 3.0% over the past 12 months. The economists surveyed by predicted that the CPI would rise by 0.4% this month, and by 3.1% on an annual basis. The U.S. Dollar Index was down last by 0.021%, at 98.934. It had fallen as high as 0.2% earlier. Still on track to a modest gain for the week. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Capital Markets' chief market strategist said that the headline was less rosy than expected. The dollar was sold by the news even though the market believed that the Fed will cut rates not only in the next week but also in December. The CPI report has been published despite the lack of economic data due to the shutdown. The Social Security Administration used this figure to calculate the cost of living adjustment for millions upon millions of retirees, and other benefit recipients. It was originally due on October 15th. The euro was up by 0.06% and closed at $1.163. A survey released on Friday showed that the services sector led the growth in business activity in the Euro Zone in October. All Eyes on Trade The trade war fears returned after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that all trade negotiations with Canada had been terminated due to an Ontario advertisement featuring a recording by Ronald Reagan, the former US President who spoke negatively about tariffs. The Canadian dollar last weakened slightly at 1.40 to the U.S. Dollar, but overall market reaction was relatively subdued. Investors' attention remained focused on the upcoming meeting between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping. Some people have hoped that the Trump-Xi summit in South Korea will bring an end to the trade war which has been on and off between the two world's largest economies. Ben Bennett, the head of Asia investment strategy at L&G Asset Management, said: "I believe expectations for the Trump-Xi summit are high, and there is a risk that the situation will de-escalate significantly following the face to face meeting." Oil prices rose due to U.S. sanctions against Russian suppliers Rosneft & Lukoil for their involvement in the war in Ukraine. This weighed heavily on currencies linked to oil imports including the yen. The performance of the yen is also tied to policies of Japan's newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi is widely considered a fiscal dove and a monetary dove. The yen fell to its lowest level in two weeks and was last trading at 152.85 US dollars. The data released earlier on Friday indicated that Japan's core consumer price index remained above the central banks 2% target. This kept expectations alive of a rate hike in the near future. Government sources informed on Wednesday that Takaichi was preparing a package of economic stimulus likely to surpass last year's $92billion to help families combat inflation. Sterling was down 0.15% at $1.33, after stronger-than-expected retail sales that were boosted by demand for gold from online jewellers. This week, it was down 1% after investors added to expectations of a rate reduction from the Bank of England in this year. Hannah Lang reported from New York, with additional reporting by Samuel Indyk and Ankur Banerjee from London. Nick Zieminski and Peter Graff edited the story.
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Santee Cooper and Brookfield move forward to complete nuclear reactors
Santee Cooper, a public utility company in South Carolina, said Friday that it had approved a letter from Brookfield Asset Management indicating its intention to resume talks about the construction of two AP1000 reactors. The two companies will begin a six week feasibility period, during which they will choose a project manager and evaluate construction providers. They will also engage potential buyers of the carbon-free electricity that the reactors can generate. The project was cancelled in July 2017, after Santee Cooper and South Carolina Electric and Gas Co. (SCE&G) spent $9 billion on its development. Peter McCoy said that Brookfield presented a proposal to Santee cooper outlining the steps to reverse our previous nuclear investment. The company stated that the decision to maintain equipment for the past eight-years has allowed the Fairfield units to be completed faster and at a lower cost. The company began looking for buyers in January to purchase the two nuclear units that were still partially constructed at V.C. Summer Nuclear Station, Jenkinsville. The Wall Street Journal had reported this news earlier that day. (Reporting and editing by Shash Kuber in Bengaluru, with Sumit Saha reporting from Bengaluru)
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EU Wheat ticks up as China is in focus
European wheat futures rose in line with Chicago on Friday as traders looked forward to U.S. - Chinese trade talks and assessed reports that Chinese buyers are inquiring about imported wheat. The Paris-based Euronext wheat market closed 0.3% higher at 190.25 Euros ($221.87) per metric ton. It has remained within its small trading range this month. Chicago wheat was also slightly higher, moving away from the five-year low it reached last week. Euronext volumes were low as attention was focused on Donald Trump's upcoming trip to Asia, where he will hold a highly-anticipated meeting with China's Xi Jinping amid their trade war. The U.S. soybean market in China, the main export market for this crop, has been stalled. This is one of the topics discussed. A lack of evidence also limited the price support. There were rumors about possible Chinese imports of wheat from Europe and Argentina. A German trader stated that "this would be very welcomed for the west EU, after we lost export sales to Black Sea. But we need to see actual buying", a German said. French wheat was again overlooked in an Algerian imported tender this week amid ongoing diplomatic tensions, and traders are now watching to see if EU wheat at competitive prices can attract demand from elsewhere. According to traders, the Russian 11.5% protein grain for shipment in November was the least expensive at $248 per ton, including freight and cost. French, Ukrainian, and Romanian wheat was very close behind, at around $249 to $250 a ton, c&f Egyptian port, depending on Euronext, and currency movements. The traders noted that there was interest from within the EU to purchase feed wheat coming out of Spain and Ireland. A Spanish buyer wanted to buy 8,000 tons at 203 euros per ton, c&f North Spain, for delivery in November. A buyer in Ireland was also willing to pay around 203 Euros per ton for 7,000 tons of feed wheat for delivery in November/December. Prices were held back by the prospect of a large global wheat harvest. Favorable sowing conditions for the harvest of next year in Europe increased supply pressure. According to FranceAgriMer, by October 20th, the farmers in France had already sown more than half of the soft wheat expected area. This was ahead of the pace average for the last five years.
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The Russian rouble has surged after a symbolic rate cut
The Russian rouble gained against the U.S. Dollar and the Chinese yuan after the central banks cut their key interest rate 50 basis points and increased inflation forecasts both for this year and in 2025. By 1620 GMT the rouble had risen 1.9% to 79.74 US dollars in the over-the counter market, and almost 2% to 11.15 yuan at the Moscow Stock Exchange where the Chinese currency is the most actively traded. The statement's hawkish language on inflation and the small cut that some analysts called "symbolic" supported the rouble. It benefits from the high interest rates because keeping money in assets denominated in roubles becomes more appealing. The rouble strengthened during the week leading up to the meeting of the central bank despite the new U.S. sanctions aimed at Russian oil companies Lukoil & Rosneft due to Ukraine. Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of the Russian Central Bank, said at a press conference held after the meeting that the rouble's stronger exchange rate was due to the lower demand for foreign currencies and the shrinking imports. She said, "We must admit our exchange rate is more volatile." (Reporting and Editing by Marguerita Chôy)
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Usiminas, a Brazilian steel company, expects a slowdown in imports and warns against China shipments
Executives at Brazilian steelmaker Usiminas said that they are confident in the anti-dumping laws of their country and expect a reduction in metal imports in the fourth quarter. In a recent earnings call, CEO Marcelo Chara stated that the company is "attentive" and "concerned" about the increase in imports coming from China. Usiminas posted a net loss for the third quarter of 3.5 billion reals ($647.68m) after taking an impairment loss of more than 2 billion dollars from revaluing its steelmaking assets. It said that without the impairment loss, it would have reported a net income of 108 millions reais as opposed to 185 million in the previous year. The quarter saw an increase of 9% in volume for iron ore, to 2.5 million metric tonnes. Steel sales dropped 2%, to 1.1 millions tons. The company expects lower sales of steel in the fourth quarter due to seasonality, but prices are expected to remain stable. The executives said that they are expecting positive cash flow for the next quarter, and are confident in further cost savings. Earnings were 434 millions reais for the quarter. This was up 2% compared to a year ago, but lower than the 458.7million reais that an LSEG survey had predicted. Analysts from BTG Pactual stated that the results were in line with the expectations but noted the "very challenging" environment for the steel division. Usiminas shares traded in Sao Paulo pared losses by more than 8%, to be about 1% lower at midday, underperforming Brazil’s benchmark Bovespa, which rose 0.3%.
Wall St Week ahead-Megacap earnings and Fed meeting to headline a busy US market week
The U.S. Stock Rally faces a potentially significant week in order to maintain its momentum going into the year-end. This includes a flood corporate results, headlined by Megacap Companies and a possible interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve following its two-day meeting.
Investors may be concerned about the escalation of U.S.-China tensions in the next few days. Meanwhile, the U.S. shutdown continues to cause uncertainty.
The S&P 500 posted a record-breaking closing high on the Friday after a 36% rise since the low of the year, in April. The benchmark index has risen over 15% in the past year.
Chris Fasciano is the chief market strategist of Commonwealth Financial Network. He said that given the fact that the market has been on a rally for several months, without any significant declines, the equities market could continue to be choppy.
Fasciano stated that "what we need to hear is corporate America talk positively about the economy and continue beating earnings." "When people get nervous, they do so when consumer confidence or business confidence is on the decline."
The third-quarter earnings season has started well, despite the disappointments of companies like Texas Instruments and streaming service Netflix.
According to LSEG IBES, the S&P 500 profit is estimated to be 10.4% higher than a year earlier, based on results reported by 143 companies. So far, 87% have exceeded analysts' earnings expectations and 82% have beaten revenues estimates. Both are higher than the historical average.
The next week will be the busiest for the season with more than 170 companies reporting. Microsoft, Apple Alphabet Amazon Meta Platforms are five of the seven "Magnificent Seven" companies. These firms have huge market capitalizations, dominate equity indices, and posted massive profit growth in the last couple of years.
The Magnificent Seven's advantage over the rest index has narrowed, but they are still expected post better results in this period. According to data released this week by Tajinder Dhillon senior research analyst at LSEG, earnings for the group will rise 16.6% compared to an 8.1% increase for the rest index.
A number of megacap companies have also been key players in artificial intelligence, which has driven the stock market's performance.
Anthony Saglimbene is the chief market strategist of Ameriprise Financial. He said that these large tech reports will have the biggest impact between now and the end the year. The hurdle rate for these companies is high as they prepare to report earnings next week.
Next week, other companies will report their results including oil giants Exxon & Chevron, payment firms Visa & Mastercard and drugmaker Eli Lilly.
Fed policymakers are widely expected to reduce the current benchmark rate, which is 4%-4.25%, by another quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday. This view was reinforced by Friday's inflation data that were lower than anticipated. The markets will be more responsive to the Fed's Jerome Powell as they have already factored in that rate change into their asset prices. They are also expecting the central bank to further cut rates at its December meeting.
The Fed's rate-cutting strategy would have the biggest impact if it showed any signs of a deviation, said Dominic Pappalardo. Chief multi-assets strategist at Morningstar Wealth.
The Fed may be hindered in its decision-making due to the lack of information provided by the federal government since the shutdown began on 1 October, including the delays in the release of employment data at a moment when there are growing concerns about the state of the labor markets.
Art Hogan is the chief market strategist for B Riley Wealth. He said that an increasingly prolonged shutdown, which has already lasted more than average in previous shutdowns, also poses a greater risk to the economic growth.
Hogan stated that the longer the situation continues, the harder it will be for the market to ignore.
Investors had also largely shrugged off trade-related risks over the past few months. However, renewed U.S. China rifts has brought tensions back to the forefront between the two world's largest economies.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened to impose significantly higher tariffs against China on November 1 after Beijing implemented export controls for rare earths. Investors are watching the developments surrounding the upcoming meeting between Trump, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to see if tensions can be eased between the two nations.
"If tariffs increase to the levels President Trump has threatened on China, you'd see a volatile and likely a negative reaction in the markets, especially if investors anticipate that this is going to last," Saglimbene stated.
(source: Reuters)