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IEA predicts a slowdown in the growth of global oil demand for the remainder of 2025

IEA predicts a slowdown in the growth of global oil demand for the remainder of 2025

The International Energy Agency (IEA), said Thursday that economic headwinds and record sales of electric cars will reduce global oil consumption growth to 650,000 barrels a day for the rest of 2025.

This is a significant drop from the 990 000 bpd that the IEA estimated for the demand growth between January and March.

In its oil market report for May, the IEA stated that "increased trade uncertainties are expected to have a negative impact on the global economy, and by extension, the oil demand."

IEA expects the global demand to grow by 740,000 bpd this year. This is an increase of 20,000 bpd from last month due to higher economic growth expectations and lower oil prices that support consumption.

The demand is expected to grow by 760,000 bpd on average in 2026.

The Paris-based watchdog increased its forecast for supply growth by almost 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) on the month, to 1.6million bpd by 2025. This was due to higher production from Saudi Arabia offsetting a predicted decline in U.S. oil production in a lower price environment.

The IEA says that Saudi Arabia is responsible for the majority of the increase in its 2025 forecast supply growth, since it is the only nation with the capacity to add barrels to the market based upon current production levels.

At its last meeting, the OPEC+ Group agreed to a second monthly accelerated production increase for June.

The IEA has cut its U.S. shale production forecasts by 40,000 bpd in 2025 and 190,000.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its 2025 oil supply forecasts for the U.S.

The IEA reported that a sharp increase in oil supply will push storage levels up by 720,000 bpd on average this year. Last year, stocks had declined by an average 140,000 bpd. (Reporting and editing by Tomasz Janowski, Jan Harvey and Alex Lawler from London)

(source: Reuters)