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Oil rates stall after funds complete brief covering: Kemp

Standard oil prices appear to have peaked for the time being after financiers finished buying previous bearish brief positions in U.S. crude futures and options.

Repurchases had sustained the rally for practically three months as the outlook for consumption improved and Saudi Arabia and its OPEC? allies restricted production.

In the premier NYMEX WTI contract, hedge funds and other money managers bought 12 million barrels of short positions over the seven days ending on March 5.

Impressive shorts were lowered to just 28 million barrels down from a high of 128 million barrels on December 12.

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

Based upon minimum brief positions over the last ten years, funds most likely have fewer than 10 million barrels delegated buy back.

However enormous brief covering has lifted front-month WTI prices by less than $11 per barrel in the last three months. In genuine terms, prices are almost exactly in line with the inflation-adjusted average considering that the start of the century.

Practically all shorts have actually now been repurchased, so extending the rally will depend on the establishment of new bullish longs. But funds really liquidated 3 million barrels of long positions over the seven days ending on March 5.

With no brand-new buying entering into the market, the upward momentum behind oil costs abated.

IMPROVED FUELS

Investment supervisors sold refined fuels (-13 million barrels). in the most recent week, mostly middle distillates (-12. million), split between U.S. diesel (-7 million) and European. gas oil (-5 million).

Formerly, funds had actually been bullish about the outlook for. distillates, which are delicate to business cycle, generating. a position of 87 million barrels (72nd percentile for all weeks. because 2013) by the middle of February.

But they have sold 27 million barrels over the 3 most. current weeks, cutting the position to just 60 million barrels. ( 50th percentile) on March 5.

Sales of diesel and gas oil futures have taken much of the. heat out of refining margins and reversed some of the earlier. rise in wholesale prices.

Makers in the United States, Europe and Asia are. recovering from the cyclical downturn in 2022/23 a lot more. slowly than expected at the start of the year.

The market has actually adjusted to the interruption of. diesel shipments from the Middle East and Asia to Europe via the. Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

U.S. NATURAL GAS

Portfolio financiers scaled back bearish brief positions in. U.S. gas following statements of drilling and output cuts. from a number of significant producers in the United States.

Hedge funds and other cash managers bought the. equivalent of 571 billion cubic feet (bcf) of futures and. alternatives in the two major agreements connected to the price of gas at. Henry Hub in Louisiana.

Previous bearish brief positions were reduced by 361 bcf,. while 210 bcf of brand-new bullish longs were initiated, according to. records submitted with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading. Commission.

Funds have bought a total of 1,079 bcf in the last two. weeks, offsetting about half the 2,085 bcf offered over the. previous 5 weeks.

As an outcome, the combined position had actually been increased to a web. short of 595 bcf (16th percentile) up from a net short of 1,675. bcf (3rd percentile) on February 20.

In genuine terms, costs had actually fallen to their most affordable for more. than 3 years in late February, and with many short. positions to be bought, the balance of risks had actually swung. securely to the benefit.

Production cuts revealed by numerous of the largest onshore. gas producers set off a brief covering rally, however so far it. has actually raised costs just marginally.

U.S. gas stocks were at the highest level for eight. years at the start of March, according to information from the U.S. Energy Details Administration.

Stocks were 529 bcf (+29% or +1.31 standard discrepancies). above the prior ten-year seasonal average and the surplus had. swelled from 64 bcf (+2% or +0.24 standard discrepancies) on. October 1.

Drilling cuts ought to ultimately force stocks back to. more regular levels but the rebalancing procedure will require time.

Many fund managers beware about becoming bullish after. calling the turning point too early three times already in the. last 12 months.

Associated columns:

- Oil costs increase as funds downsize bearish positions. ( March 4, 2024)

- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps prices under. pressure (March 1, 2024)

- U.S. gas glut gets hedge funds ultra bearish (February 26,. 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy

(source: Reuters)