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Minister says Nepal lifts the ban on social media after 19 protesters are killed
A government minister announced on Tuesday that Nepal had lifted its ban on social media following the protests which resulted in 19 deaths. Prithvi Gurung, Minister of Communications and Information Technology and Cabinet spokesperson, said that the government had lifted its ban on social media imposed just last week. After 19 people died and over 100 were injured during the "Gen Z's" Monday protests against widespread corruption, the decision was made. The ban was the catalyst for the protests. "We have lifted the ban on social media." Gurung said that they are now working. Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli expressed his sadness over the violence that has been caused by "infiltration" from various selfish centers. He added that the government would provide relief to the families of those who died and free medical treatment for those injured. In a statement released late on Monday, Oli announced that an investigation panel would be formed to determine the causes of the incident, to assess losses and to suggest measures to prevent it from happening again. The protests that spread to other cities of the Himalayan nation have been dubbed "demonstrations of Gen Z" by their organizers. The protests, they say, reflect the frustration of young people with the government for not taking action against corruption and boosting economic opportunities. Last week, the government decided to block several social media platforms, including Facebook. This decision sparked anger among young people. Officials claim that the shutdown is for social media platforms who have not registered with the government. This comes amid a crackdown against fake IDs and hate speech. Reporting by Gopal Singh in Kathmandu, and Surbhi Mitra in Bengaluru. Editing by Tom Hogue & Stephen Coates.
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Oil prices rise on modest OPEC+ production hike decision and Russia's supply problems
The oil prices rose on Tuesday as OPEC+ increased production less than the market expected, and concerns about tighter supplies due to new sanctions against Russia also continued to support them. Brent crude rose 22 cents or 0.33% to $66.24 a bar by 0005 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude rose 24 cents or 0.39% to $62.50 a bar. OPEC+ is a group of eight countries and their allies that have agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels a day starting in October. This is a much smaller increase than the monthly gains of approximately 555,000 barrels per day for September and August and 411,000 barrels per day in July and Juni. This is less than what some analysts expected. In a Tuesday client note, Daniel Hynes said that the October move was "a reversal" of the cuts which were to be in place until 2026. This follows the rapid return of barrels idled in recent months. The speculation that more sanctions would be imposed on Russia following the largest air strike by Russia on Ukraine, which set a Kyiv government building on fire, also helped to support prices. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he is ready to implement a second round of restrictions. The top European Union sanctions official, along with a team experts from Washington, discussed what would be the very first coordinated transatlantic measure against Russia after Trump's return to office. Additional sanctions against Russia could reduce its oil supplies to the global market, which would support higher oil prices. Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee will meet. Traders predict an 89.4% probability of a quarter point interest rate reduction. Lower rates can reduce borrowing costs for consumers and boost the economy. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing in Bengaluru, Anjana Anil)
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McGeever: The 100 billion dollar Treasury record that you missed.
For good reason, the recent spike in 30-year bond yields has been a headline story on world bond markets. With so much focus on the long end, it seems that few have noticed the historic changes in the ultra-short U.S. Treasury Market. The weekly sale of four-week T bills has now reached the landmark of $100 billion. The September 4 auction marked the fifth consecutive sales at this record-high amount. This new government strategy is reflected in the flood of bills being sold. The Trump administration wants to lower the country's overall interest rates and debt maturity profile by borrowing at the short end of the curve. It seems to be working so far. Investors expect at least 150 basis point of rate easing before the end of this year. This is not only lowering bill rates and yields on short-term bonds, but also yields over the longer term. The benchmark 10-year rate is at its lowest level since the 'Liberation Day tariff chaos' in April, and the 30-year rate is once again slipping away from 5%. Investors who lend to Uncle Sam over a period of 10 years with the associated risk get paid 4.08% annually, while those who lend to Uncle Sam in a four-week period receive 4.20%. These bill auctions are generating strong demand. Last week's $100-billion sale was 2,78 times oversubscribed. What's the issue? Let me Roll It The biggest worry is the 'rollover risk'. The government must refinance large portions of its debt more often because it concentrates sales on the front of the curve. It is then more vulnerable to unexpected financial, political, or economic shocks. These could lead to an increase in short-term borrowing rates or force the Fed's policy rate to be raised. Fed expectations may be skewed downwards right now. But what if inflation expectations start to rise and the Fed is forced to stop its easing cycle, or even raise rates? This is not a crazy scenario. Goldman Sachs says the Fed is likely to ease in a climate of 3% inflation, high equity markets and the most accommodative financial conditions for three-and-a half years. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model also predicts 3.5% economic growth. The full impact of Trump's new tariffs on inflation is not taken into consideration. The increased bill issuance is well-absorbed, but the cash that goes into them depletes liquidity pools and buffers elsewhere in the system. The overnight reverse repo facility of the Fed is almost empty and total bank reserve at the Fed is declining. Nobody knows the minimum level of comfortable reserves in the banking system. In late 2019, a sudden fall below this level caused significant volatility in the money markets and an increase in overnight rates. Experts believe that it is higher now, due to the expansion of the banking system and economy. Reserves are decreasing steadily and may soon fall below $3 trillion. Citi analysts warn that they will continue to "march" below this level as Tbill issuance increases, potentially pushing up repo rates and financing costs. THRESHOLD According to Wall Street estimates, the Treasury is increasingly relying on T-bills as a funding source. This could mean that new issuances over the next 18 month may exceed $1.5 trillion. The share of outstanding bills is also likely to increase. Currently, this portion is just under 21 percent. This is slightly below the historical median of 22.5% and above the range recommended by Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. T Rowe Price analysts believe the share will soon reach 25%. This is a level that was last seen during pandemics and the Global Financial Crisis. It suggests borrowing policies seen before crises may become the norm. All of this won't be a problem as long as the demand for increased issuance is strong. There's good reason to think that this will be the outcome. Money market funds, the largest buyers of T-bills, have seen their holdings explode from $4.7 billion in early 2020 to over $7 trillion today. There is also a massive demand for T-bills from stablecoin issues, who want to back their crypto assets using safe and liquid assets such as T-bills. The market may continue to "play ball" with the new government funding strategy. The Trump administration is hoping so, with over $1 trillion in new issuances coming.
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Bloomberg News reports that Anglo American is close to a deal with Teck Resources.
Bloomberg News reported Monday that Anglo American was close to a deal for the acquisition of Canadian miner Teck Resources. The report cited people who were familiar with the matter. Separately, The Financial Times reported Monday that the potential acquisition could be valued at around $20 billion. Reports said that the London-listed global mining company is considering paying a majority in stock and an announcement could be made as soon as this week. The report said that the terms and timing of the agreement are still uncertain and the talks could collapse without an accord. According to LSEG, Teck Resources is valued at approximately C$23.69 (about $17.17 Billion), while Anglo American's market value is around 26.82 Billion Pounds (roughly $35.35 billion), according to LSEG. Anglo American, as well as Teck, have attracted interest in recent years from bigger rivals. Anglo rejected a $49billion takeover offer from BHP Group in the past year. Teck also turned down a $22.5billion full buyout from Glencore. Glencore has said that it is still interested in Teck, the Canadian miner. If Anglo makes an approach, there could be a bidding war. We could not verify the information immediately. Teck, Anglo American, and Glencore didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. ($1 = 1,3797 Canadian Dollars) ($1= 0.7378 Pounds) (Reporting and editing by Mohammed Safi Shamsi, Rashmi Anich and Dheeraj Misra from Bengaluru)
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Norway's ruling Labour party wins re-election
Norway's Labour Party minority government will narrowly win its re-election Monday, according to projections from local broadcasters. The vote was dominated by concern over the rising cost of living and wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Gaza. If the official results confirm early readings, then 65-year-old Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere would remain at power as part of a minority coalition that would heavily depend on smaller parties for major legislation, such as fiscal budgets. In order to gain their support, he will likely have to face difficult discussions about issues like tax hikes on the wealthy, oil exploration in the future, and divestments from Israeli companies by Norway's sovereign wealth fund of $2 trillion. The broadcasters NRK, TV2 and the daily VG projected that Stoere's Labour bloc and four smaller parties would win 87 seats. This is more than the required 85 for a majority. The right-wing parties led by Progress, a populist anti-immigration party, and Erna Solberg's Conservatives, a 64-year-old former prime minister, are on course to win 82 seats. Concerns about the turmoil in Ukraine, and an aggressive Russia that shares a border in the Arctic with Norway, have given the left a boost in recent months, after former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg joined Stoere’s cabinet. Unlike some of their counterparts in Europe, none of the right-wing political parties expected to win seats has sought the support of U.S. president Donald Trump or his movements.
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Gold rallies above $3,600/oz to a record high as Fed rate-cut bets are firm
Gold surged above $3,600 per ounce for the first-time on Monday. It was a record high as weak U.S. employment data reinforced expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut interest rates the following week. As of 2:26 pm EDT (1826 GMT), spot gold was up 1.3% at $3,634.25 an ounce. Bullion reached a new record of $3,646.29. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.7% higher at $3,677.40. Peter Grant, senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals and vice president, believes that the yellow metal will continue to rise in price, reaching $3,700-3,730 within a short time. The bullion market could be sustained by the continued softening of the labor market and the expectation that Fed rates will continue to fall into early 2026. The Friday jobs report revealed that U.S. employment growth was slowed dramatically in August. According to CME FedWatch, traders now expect a rate cut of up to a quarter point at the Fed meeting in September. Low rates reduce the cost of holding bullion that does not yield. Gold prices have risen 37% this year after 27% growth in 2024. This is due to dollar weakness, central bank accumulations, dovish monetary policies and increased global uncertainty. China's central banks extended its gold buying streak to 10 consecutive months in August, according to official data released on Sunday. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, on the other hand, are at their lowest level in five months. Investors will now be waiting for the U.S. consumer price data and producer prices to come out on Thursday. This information could provide further insight into Fed policy. Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. He said that if the U.S. Dollar and yields continue to fall, the bullish momentum should also continue in gold. Razaqzada said that if the U.S. data showed surprise resilience in the coming week, gold could correct from its elevated levels. Silver spot rose 0.8%, reaching its highest level since September 2011 earlier in the session. Platinum rose 0.6% to $1,381.49 and palladium gained a 2.1% increase to $1,132.87.
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Egypt's EGAS signs a preliminary agreement with BP for the drilling of five Mediterranean gas wells
Egypt's Petroleum Ministry announced on Monday that the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company, or EGAS, has signed a preliminarily agreement with BP for drilling five new gaswells in Mediterranean Sea. The Ministry's efforts to increase exploration and production are reflected in the memorandum signed by EGAS, a state-owned company. Egypt, once the largest gas exporter in the region, is increasingly importing to meet its domestic demand, as production from old fields declines and new investments are slow. According to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative, gas production in May decreased by more than 40% compared to March 2021. The statement said that drilling of the five deep wells at 300 to 1,500 meters is expected to begin next year. The Petroleum Ministry announced on August 30 that it had signed four agreements with international companies worth over $340 million for the exploration of oil and gas in Mediterranean and Nile Delta. Shell, Eni of Italy, and Arcius Energy were among the firms. Arcius Energy is a joint venture owned 51% by BP, and 49% by ADNOC investment arm XRG. (Reporting and editing by Muhammad Al Gebaly, Jaidaa T.A. Haha)
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Databricks expects to generate $4 billion annually in revenue from the surge in AI demand
Databricks, a firm that provides analytics, announced on Monday that it is on track to reach $4 billion in revenue annually, an increase of more than 50% over the previous year. This was due to the surge in demand for its artificial-intelligence products. The Series K funding was led by Andreessen Hoowitz, Insight Partner, MGX Thrive Capital, and WCM Investment Management. It raised $1 billion with a valuation of over $100 billion. The proceeds will be used to accelerate the company's AI strategy. This includes expanding its products, launching an entirely new category of operational databases, as well as future AI research and acquisitions. The company, which serves around 15,000 clients, including Shell, a major energy company, and Rivian, an electric vehicle manufacturer, has exceeded a revenue run rate of $4 billion, with AI products exceeding $1 billion. Databricks aims to achieve a net revenue retainment of more than 140%. It also wants more than 650 clients with annual spending exceeding $1 million and a positive free cashflow over the last 12 months. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi said in an interview that the company has received numerous investor inquiries since July's successful $1.22 billion initial public offering of design software firm Figma, another venture capital-backed startup. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi stated in an interview that his firm has received many investor inquiries following the $1.22 billion IPO of Figma, a venture-backed software company, in July. Databricks was founded in 2013 and offers a platform that helps users to ingest, analyse, and build AI apps using complex data. (Reporting by Kritika Lamba in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
United States oil and gas output was seriously struck by winter storm: Kemp
U.S. oil production dropped sharply at the start of the year as remarkably winter for 10 days in the middle of January triggered extensive freeze offs at oil wells.
Nationwide crude and condensates output was down by almost 24 million barrels or 0.8 million barrels each day (b/d) in January 2024 compared with December 2023.
The monthly decrease was the largest given that Winter season Storm Uri in February 2021 and before that the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic in March and April 2020.
The fall was the ninth largest in over a century considering that records began in 1920 (a total of 1248 observations) according to information from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
For 10 days in between Jan. 13 and Jan. 23, centred around Winter Season Storm Heather, temperature levels throughout the Lower 48 states were significantly chillier than average for the time of year.
The winter storm triggered a reasonably big impact on the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico with frozen equipment and teams not able to reach well websites.
Constant with the storm-driven loss of output, there was a. short-lived dip in business unrefined inventories of 13 million to. 17 million barrels between early and late January, practically all. reversed by the middle of February.
Chartbook: U.S. oil and gas production
Many other large regular monthly decreases have actually likewise been associated. with extreme weather condition events, consisting of Typhoon Katrina in. September 2008 and Cyclone Rita in September 2005.
In every previous weather-related disturbance, production has. recovered to pre-event levels within the next one to two. months.
In this instance, it is likely crude and condensates. production will rebound to December levels over the course of. February and March.
But the storm-driven disruption will make it difficult to discern. if output development has slowed even more following the fall in costs. because the middle of 2022.
Production in January 2024 was down by 35,000 b/d compared. with the very same month a year earlier, after growth of 1.1 million. b/d (10%) in December 2023 compared with the exact same month in 2022.
Development slowed a little in the 2nd half of 2023, though. more gradually than expected, but the weather-related impact makes. it difficult to know if the trend continued into the start of. 2024.
Up until now, the persistent increase in U.S. oil production has. annoyed efforts by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC? allies to. lower international inventories and increase prices.
Following Winter Storm Heather, it will be at least a couple of. more months before the efficiency of the effort is understood.
U.S. GAS
Gas production also dipped in January as a result of the. severe winter in the Permian Basin and other locations. ( Winter storms have interfered with U.S. natural gas production,. EIA, March 13).
Dry gas output fell by 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) or 3% in. January 2024 compared to December 2023, according to EIA information.
Production had actually still increased by 43 bcf (1%) compared to. the exact same month a year earlier however that was down from growth of. 197 bcf (6%) in December.
Like oil, gas production has been slowing in reaction to the. retreat in costs from a high in August 2022 to a multi-decade. low in genuine terms in February and March 2024.
However the weather-driven disturbance in January is likely to be. reversed in February and March, and makes it impossible to. recognize whether the slowdown continued at the start of 2024.
Regardless of the quick cold wave connected with Winter season. Storm Heather, strong production integrated with a moderate winter. in general to leave a near-record quantity of gas in storage,. pressing prices.
As with oil, the weather disruption implies it will be a number of. more months before it becomes clear if output growth is slowing. enough to assist rebalance the marketplace.
Associated columns:
- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps rates under. pressure (March 1, 2024)
- Increasing U.S. oil production irritates OPEC? cuts (February. 1, 2024)
John Kemp is a market expert. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)