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Bitcoin drops 5% below $90,000; bearish factors rack up
Bitcoin dropped below $90,000. This was the steepest monthly drop since 2021's crypto crash. Investors were once again avoiding risk, and they pulled out of stocks, digital assets, and other digital assets. At one point, the world's biggest cryptocurrency dropped by up to 6.1%. By 0942 GMT it had fallen nearly 5% to $86,754, its largest one-day drop in a year and was hovering around last month's 8-month low of $71,553. Bitcoin lost more than $18,000 during November. This is its biggest dollar loss since the collapse of several cryptocurrencies in May 2021. RISK INDICATOR Bitcoin's relatively short life span means that there are few seasonal patterns to guide traders in predicting how it will behave in December. Since its creation in 2012, Bitcoin has risen on average by 9.7% in December. October is the best month with an average gain 16.6% and September the worst with a 3.5% average loss. Analysts said that the tight correlation between bitcoin and the stock market could be more relevant at this time. In a recent note, XTB Research Director Kathleen Brooks stated that "Bitcoin is a leading indicator of risk sentiment at this time and its decline does not bode very well for stocks to start the month." She said that "there is no obvious driver" for Monday's market. However, last week's sharp drop in volatility, when the VIX dropped below the average of the past 12 months, could have worried some investors, who are still concerned about the uncertain outlook going into the year-end. Ether, second largest cryptocurrency behind bitcoin in terms of market value, fell 6% to $2,840. It had lost 22% in November. This was the biggest drop since the 32% decline in February. NEGATIVES ARE ADDING UP Mohit Kumar, a strategist at Jefferies, said that the crypto-negative factors leading up to the weekend would add pressure on bitcoin for Monday. S&P Global, the world's leading stablecoin, downgraded Tether last week. It cited an increase in higher risk assets in Tether's reserves, and "persistent disclosure gaps," with which Tether "strongly disagrees." Phong Le told the podcast "What Bitcoin Did", on Friday, that Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin owner in the world, would consider selling their holdings, if the "mNAV", or enterprise value divided by the value of the bitcoins, fell below 1. According to Strategy's site, the ratio is around 1.19. In premarket trading, shares of Strategy and other crypto-companies such as Coinbase, Riot Platforms, and MARA Holdings, and mining companies Riot Platforms and MARA Holdings fell between 3-4 %. According to CoinGecko, since the crypto market reached a size of $4.3 trillion, it has lost more than $1 trillion. According to LSEG, exchange-traded fund (ETF) products backed by bitcoin spot saw record outflows in November of $3.43bn. In total, $21 billion have been invested in these products so far this year.
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Silver reaches record highs; gold reaches six-week high on optimism about rate cuts
The gold price rose on Monday, reaching its highest level in the past six weeks. Investors were boosted by expectations that interest rates could be cut in the United States later this month, and by changes in Federal Reserve leadership. Silver also reached a new record high. As of 0855 GMT spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,241.21 an ounce, its highest level since October 21. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.5%, to $4275.40. Silver rose 1.3%, to $57.12 an ounce. It had previously reached a record high of $57.86. The market is now pricing in a rate reduction for the Fed for December. Also, the expectation that the new FOMC Chairman will be a dove... is driving investment demand for Gold," said UBS Analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Silver benefits from the same factors as gold plus the expectation that industrial demand will improve further next year. In the past few weeks, traders have placed more bets on interest rate reductions in December, following softening U.S. economic data and comments from several policymakers including Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, and New York Fed president John Williams. According to CME's FedWatch, the markets are pricing in an 88% probability of a rate reduction. Non-yielding gold tends to be supported by lower borrowing costs. Kevin Hassett, White House economist, said that if he were chosen as the next Fed chairman he would be delighted to do so. Hassett, like Trump, believes that rates should be lowered. Trump will likely announce a new chairman before Christmas, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The markets are now awaiting the ADP November employment report, which will be released on Wednesday, and core U.S. The Fed will also be looking at the September Personal Consumption Spending figures, which are due out on Friday. The U.S. Dollar fell to its lowest level in two weeks, which made the price of greenback bullion more affordable for holders other currencies. Staunovo said, "We anticipate gold will rise to $4.500/oz (and) that silver will rise to $60/oz." (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala) (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala in Bengaluru)
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China's stock rally begins to gain investor confidence
Fund managers have been picking up Chinese industrial shares and volatile tech stocks, relying on a rally in equities that has lasted for two years to withstand a rough economic patch. They are betting on valuations and steady returns to bring back foreign investors. China's blue chip index CSI300 has surpassed the S&P 500, with a gain of roughly 16% in year-to date. Hong Kong's Hang Seng – up around 30% – is on track for its largest annual increase since 2017. The mood has changed from the euphoria triggered by stimulus a year earlier, but the ride is getting bumpier. This is especially true as the pressure on China Vanke reminds the market participants that the prolonged property downturn will not be over. Investors and analysts seem to have little concern about the current bull market, claiming that it is only taking a break. Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's China equity strategist, said: "We think we are only at the beginning stages of a gradual process where foreign investors come back to China." She said that investors had begun to change their minds after seeing the results of this year. China stocks have also defied Sino-American trade friction and climbed thanks to state support, improved corporate governance and big gains for artificial-intelligence-linked stocks after the impressive release of DeepSeek's chatbot. Hong Kong's capital markets, which have recently been revived, also saw a record HK$1.38 billion ($177 billion). Fund manager Xia Fuguang at Shenzhen Rongzhi Investment said that the next leg of bull run would likely be driven primarily by fundamental improvements and growth in earnings. He is also in favor of Beijing's anti-involution campaign, which is a campaign to combat industrial overcapacity, price wars and other issues. ANTI-INVOLUTION Fund managers claim that industrial stock valuations are also attractive and are attracting investment. Fund manager Wang An stated that "cyclical stocks are relatively inexpensive, so you can build positions when prices are low as anti-involution policy gradually takes root." According to Datayes, over the past three-month period, ETFs that track the CSI Battery Thematic Index have seen net inflows of 13.5 billion yuan, or $1.91 billion. Another 11.2 billion yuan has been invested in funds tracking the CSI Chemicals Sub-industry Index. Funds that track the STAR 50 Index, a tech-heavy index, experienced net outflows of 31.1 billion yuan during the same time period. Xu Jie is a fund manager from Shanghai at Yuanzi Investment Management. He has purchased solar energy, steelmaking, and coal stocks. Xu, citing possible inflows of foreigners and depositors, said that there is "no doubt" the slow bull run in China will continue into next year. The Shanghai Composite Index, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both trade at around 12 times earnings. According to LSEG, this compares to a multiple 28 for the S&P 500 and a ratio 21 for Japan's Nikkei 225. The FTSE 100 Index in Europe has a price-to earnings ratio of 21. Wang Wendi is the distribution manager of Shanghai Intewise Capital. The company has increased its stakes in chemical producers, steelmakers and express delivery firms. Zenith & Xenium Capital is another Chinese fund house that has also made bets on cyclical sectors like photovoltaic companies, refiners, chemical processors, and new energy. NEW CHINA For the past few decades, foreigners have been concerned about policy risks in China. They have kept their allocations low while U.S. investments and global investments performed well. Investors have said that they are not 100% in China. Factory activity has slowed down for the eighth consecutive month in October. Vincenzo Vedda is the global chief investment officer of DWS. He said, "We're not sure about China." China no longer provides real-time information on foreign inflows. The latest figures from the central bank show that foreign holdings reached 3.5 trillion Yuan by the end of September. This is well below the peak of 3.9 billion yuan set in 2021, but still reflects some strength. Florian Neto is the head of Asia investment at Amundi - Europe's largest asset manager. He is neutral, but makes a distinction between "old China", where exporters, developers, and other firms faced economic challenges, and "new China," where AI and biotech companies can expect to see earnings growth. He said, "The market is driven by innovation, technology and innovative drugs, especially in China. We are looking forward to bringing on more products." Investors who look at their returns for the full year may decide to buy in 2026. Kristina Hooper, the chief market strategist of Man Group in New York, said that other stock markets performed better this year than the U.S. "I think most investors will recognize this paradigm shift by January... I believe that encourages looking for opportunities outside of the U.S., especially when valuations are so stretched."
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Bitcoin drops 5% to $90,000. Investors abandon risky assets
Bitcoin dropped below $90,000. This was the steepest monthly drop since 2021's crypto crash. Investors were once again averse to risk, and they pulled out of stocks, digital assets, and other digital assets. The largest cryptocurrency in the world fell 5%, to $86,627. It is on track for its biggest single-day drop since early November, and is hovering around last month's 8-month low, of $80 553. Bitcoin lost more than $18,000 during November. This is its biggest dollar loss since the collapse of several cryptocurrencies in May 2021. Stocks in Europe dropped in early trading. U.S. Futures indicated a fall of 0.6-0.7% in the major indexes for later. Safe havens like gold and the Swiss Franc also edged higher. Bitcoin's relatively short life span means that there are few seasonal patterns to guide traders in predicting how it will behave in December. Since its creation in 2012, Bitcoin has risen on average by 9.7% in December. October is the best month with an average gain 16.6% and September the worst with an average decline of 3.5%. Analysts said that the tight correlation between bitcoin and the stock market could be more relevant at this time. In a recent note, XTB Research Director Kathleen Brooks stated that "Bitcoin is a leading indicator of risk sentiment at this time and its decline does not bode very well for stocks to start the month." She said that "there is no obvious driver" for Monday's market. However, last week's sharp drop in volatility, when the VIX dropped below the average of the past 12 months, could have worried some investors, who are still concerned about the uncertain outlook going into the year-end. Ether, second largest cryptocurrency behind bitcoin in terms of market value, fell 6% to $2,840. It had lost 22% of its value in November. This was the biggest drop since the 32% decline in February. According to CoinGecko, since the crypto market reached a size of $4.3 trillion, it has lost more than $1 trillion. According to LSEG, exchange-traded fund (ETF) products backed by bitcoin spot saw record outflows in November of $3.43bn. In total, $21 billion have been invested in these products so far this year.
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British MP Tulip Siddiq sentencesd in absentia in Bangladesh graft Case to two years imprisonment
Prosecutors said that a Bangladeshi court sentenced British MP and former Minister Tulip Siddiq to two years' imprisonment in absentia on Monday, in a case of corruption involving an alleged illegal allotment of a land plot. Siddiq’s aunt Sheikh Hasina was sentenced to five years of imprisonment in absentia and her sister Rehana received seven. The court said that if the three defendants do not pay, they will be sentenced to an additional six-month prison term. Siddiq dismissed the allegations, which he made in the past, as "politically-motivated smears", after resigning as UK minister for financial services and against corruption following an investigation into Hasina's financial connections. The UK does not have a treaty of extradition with Bangladesh. Hasina's representative did not immediately respond to a request by for comment. The land, which measures approximately 13,610 square feet (1.264 square metres), in Dhaka's capital was illegally allocated by senior officials and political influence. The three powerful defendants - Siddiq Hasina, and Rehana - abused their power to stop the plot while Hasina was prime minister. According to the court, this land was to be used to build a new township in Dhaka to relieve housing and population pressure. 14 other individuals charged with the same case have also been sentenced to prison for five years. Hasina fled to India during an uprising in August 2024, when her government was under attack. She was sentenced last month to death for the violent crackdown by her government on protesters. She was sentenced to 21 years in prison last week for a combination of other corruption cases.
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Thai central bank plans to cut rates and ease the strong baht
Thailand's central banks is preparing measures to reduce the upward pressure of the baht. This includes tightening controls by banks on gold-related transactions in foreign exchange and requiring gold traders to provide their transaction data. The baht is Asia's second best performing currency, having gained 7% in value against the dollar this year. The appreciation of the baht is a threat to Thailand's export and tourism industries. In a recent statement, the Bank of Thailand said that it closely monitors the baht's volatility and will take action to minimize the impact of any fluctuations on businesses. The BOT will propose to the Finance Ministry that the limit on foreign income not required to be repatriated increase to $10 million per transaction from $1 million currently, and to come into effect in this month. The increased limit will provide greater flexibility to the private sector when managing foreign currencies and reduce the amount of foreign currency brought into the country, which in turn will ease pressure on the baht. Vitai Ratanakorn, the governor of Thailand's central bank, said earlier on Monday that he could see room for interest rate cuts, but said such a move would have a limited effect on an economy with structural problems. To support an economy in a slump, the central bank cut its policy rates four times during the last year. It now stands at a low of three years. The next policy review will be on December 17 and some economists are expecting a further reduction in the rate. In October, it left the key interest rate at 1.50%. This was a surprise.
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China export controls force European firms to shift supply chains
A European lobbying group, looking for cover against the U.S. - China trade war, said Monday that China's tightening of export controls is pushing European firms into exploring new supply chain capacities outside the world's largest economy. According to the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, one in three of its member companies are looking to move their sourcing from China because of Beijing's export controls regime. Forty percent of respondents to its recent flash survey reported that the Commerce Ministry is processing export licenses slower than promised. The chamber's President Jens Eskelund said that China's export controls had increased the level of uncertainty for European companies operating in China. Companies were at risk of production delays or even halts. He added that the curbs "have added more pressure to an already stressed global trade system." The chamber reported that 130 companies took part in the survey. These included the German automakers BMW, Volkswagen and TotalEnergies, as well as the Finnish telecoms company Nokia, and the French oil giant TotalEnergies. Beijing stunned the U.S. when it threatened to tighten controls on rare-earth imports in October, highlighting China's willingness flex its muscle to keep Washington under pressure in trade negotiations. This move sparked new concerns from European companies about the possibility of their supply chains being disrupted again, as they were in April by similar curbs. Beijing's decision to stop exporting rare earths, magnets, and other products - ostensibly to squeeze U.S. automakers and military contractors - led to a global shortage of supplies. Alfredo Montufar Helu, managing director of Ankura Consulting, said that "these survey results are important because they paint an image that runs contrary to the optimism following the Busan summit". He was referring a pause on Beijing's new trade restrictions negotiated during a U.S. China summit in Busan, South Korea. The deal has not been signed in ink. Washington and Beijing continue to debate the concessions while the EU pushes for inclusion. The implementation is slow, and global supply chains pay the price. The Chamber's Flash survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents said that their overseas production facilities depended upon Chinese components that are subject to export controls, and that 50% of exporting companies reported that either their customers or suppliers made goods that would soon be controlled. The EU firms complained that the process of obtaining a license from the Commerce Ministry took longer than the 45-day promise. They also expressed concern about the lack of transparency in the application. Also, they raised concerns regarding possible intellectual property theft. The survey provided examples of companies that were affected by Beijing's export restrictions. One firm estimated that the measures would cost it 20% of their global revenue in this year. Another said that they expected to incur costs of more than 250 million euros (289.8 millions). The survey found that 56 of 131 European companies surveyed said export controls will have no effect, suggesting certain sectors are still protected. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Eduardo Baptista and Joe Cash)
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Gold reaches six-week highs driven by risk-off sentiment
The gold price has stabilized since hitting a six week high on Monday. Investors are focused on the potential U.S. interest rate cut that could happen later this month. Silver prices have also reached a new record. As of 0645 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.1% to $4,235.59 an ounce after reaching its highest level since October 21. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.3%, to $4269.40. Silver increased 1.1%, to $56.99 an ounce. It had previously reached a record high of $57.86. Holders of other currencies can now buy gold at a lower price than before, as the U.S. Dollar has fallen to its lowest level in two weeks. S&P Futures are on a risk off session, down 0.8% to coincide with the sell-off in major crypto currencies. This has created a positive feedback loop for gold, which is a safe-haven asset in today's thinly traded session. In Asian trading, U.S. stocks futures fell, and among cryptocurrencies bitcoin dropped 3.6% to $87.881.82 while ether dropped 5% at $2,871.59. Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, and New York Fed president John Williams, along with softer U.S. economic data, have strengthened expectations that the central banks will ease policy this December. According to CME's FedWatch, futures indicate an 87% probability of a rate reduction. Kevin Hassett is a White House economist who has been tipped as the frontrunner to become Fed chair. He said that if President Donald Trump appointed him, he would gladly accept. Hassett, like Trump, believes that rates should be lowered. The markets are now awaiting the core U.S. The Fed will be looking at Friday's Personal Consumption Spending figures for more clues about its policy direction. Non-yielding gold tends to be supported by lower borrowing costs. Wong said that silver prices rose due to the thin liquidity created by the CME's outage last Thursday, and not because of any fundamental factors. Platinum rose by 1.3%, to $1694.18, and palladium increased by 1.4%, to $1471.94. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Mrigank Dhaniwala and Eileen Soreng)
As part of an organisational review, UK-based Harbour Energy is expecting to cut 100 jobs offshore
Harbour Energy, an offshore producer with a focus on the North Sea, announced Monday that it would be cutting 100 jobs in its UK operations as part of a review of their UK organisation.
Low commodity prices and a tax regime that is not competitive have put pressure on the UK oil-and-gas sector. This has led to Harbour's offshore restructuring, according to Scott Barr, Harbour's UK managing director.
After a consultation phase, which is expected to end in the first quarter 2026, job cuts are planned.
By 2023, 600 new jobs will be created. On top of this, the job losses announced Monday will be even more severe.
The British government has one of the toughest tax systems in the world for oil and gas companies. This includes a windfall tax of 38% if prices are above government thresholds. In such cases, the total tax burden is 78%.
The industry had hoped that the Energy Profits Levy would be withdrawn sooner than March 2030.
The offshore reorganisation was a necessary step in order to align our operational model with the reduced production and activity levels in the UK. This was accelerated by the EPL's retention, and we maintained our commitment to safety standards and regulatory standards." Barr stated.
The EPL will remain in place and Harbour's UK Business Unit is likely to continue to struggle for capital to fund our global portfolio.
The government announced on Wednesday that it would allow new oil and natural gas production in or near existing fields. (Reporting and editing by Stephanie Kelly, Kirsten Doovan and Bernadettebaum)
(source: Reuters)