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Northern Hemisphere's record winter heat slashes gas usage: Kemp

The northern hemisphere has experienced the warmest winter season on record, with the unusual warmth concentrated around the Atlantic Basin, which has produced a massive surplus of gas and slump in rates because October.

Surface area temperature levels on land were +2.65 ° C above the 20th century average in between December and February, according to data assembled by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Chartbook: Northern hemisphere winter 2023/24

Tape-record warmth in the winter season of 2023/24 beat previous highs of +2.44 ° C in 2019/2020 and +2.61 ° C in 2015/16 - likewise winters characterised by surplus stocks and slump in gas rates.

Global warming, strong El Nino conditions in the Pacific, a. highly favorable North Atlantic Oscillation, and the solar. activity cycle moving towards its 11-year peak, all contributed. to exceptional heat this winter.

THE United States AND CANADA

Europe has received most attention because of the local. gas market's disruption following Russia's intrusion of Ukraine,. but the most irregular weather happened in The United States and Canada.

Temperatures throughout The United States And Canada were +3.43 ° C above the. long-run average in between December and February ( Climate at a. glimpse, National Centers for Environmental Details, March. 2024).

North America experienced record warm anomalies in both. December (+4.66 ° C )and February (+3.59 ° C )slashing heating. need for both gas and gas-fired electricity.

U.S. gas stocks started the heating season just 64. billion cubic feet (bcf) (+2% or +0.24 standard deviations). above the previous 10-year seasonal average on Oct. 1.

Stocks were still just 129 bcf (+4% or +0.46 standard. variances) above the 10-year seasonal average at the end of. November.

The surplus had swelled to 307 bcf (+10% or +1.15. standard deviations) by the end of December following a run of. abnormally warm weather condition.

Cooler temperature levels triggered the surplus to narrow temporarily. in January, especially throughout the really cold spell between. Jan. 13 and Jan. 22.

But the surplus swelled again to 519 bcf (+29% or +1.31. basic variances) by the end of February as temperatures. reverted to well above typical.

With moderate weather condition continuing into March the surplus had. puffed up to a huge 606 bcf (+35 or +1.35 requirement. deviations) by March 8.

U.S. front-month futures prices averaged nearly $3.19 per. million British thermal systems in October, putting them in the. As soon as inflation is, 13th percentile for all months because 1993. considered.

By February typical inflation-adjusted rates had actually been up to. a record low of $1.80 as persistent heat and the unrelenting. develop of surplus inventories sent the marketplace into a tailspin.

EUROPE AND ASIA

Europe likewise experienced a very warm winter, with. temperatures +2.73 ° C above the long-run average, making the. winter season the 2nd warmest on record after 2019/20 (+3.32 ° C)

. A highly positive North Atlantic Oscillation directed. strong westerly winds into Northwest Europe bringing lots of. moisture-laden and warm air from the Atlantic.

The temperature level anomaly may not have been as extreme as. North America, but combined with prices well above the. pre-invasion average, it was enough to leave the area with. record seasonal inventories by the end of February.

Stocks across the European Union and the UK. started the heating season 167 terawatt-hours (TWh) (+18% or. +1.70 basic deviations) above the 10-year average on Oct. 1.

By Feb. 29, the surplus had swollen to 269 TWh (+60% or. +2.08 basic deviations), according to information from Gas. Infrastructure Europe.

Europe's front-month futures balanced almost 46 euros per. megawatt-hour (88th percentile for all months considering that 2010 in genuine. terms) in October, however had actually slumped to an average of simply 26. euros (48th percentile) in February.

By contrast to The United States and Canada and Europe, winter temperature levels. throughout Asia were closer to regular, a minimum of for the last two. years.

Asia's temperatures averaged +1.80 ° C above the long-lasting. average, but that made it only the 10th hottest winter season on. record.

THOUSANDSES OF GAS

The United States And Canada, Europe and Asia combined represented practically. two-thirds of worldwide gas intake in 2022 ( Statistical. evaluation of world energy, Energy Institute, 2023).

North America and Europe alone represented 40% of. around the world consumption, with a heavy weighting towards the winter season. months because of heating demand.

Exceptional heat around the Atlantic Basin in winter. 2023/24 therefore occurred in exactly the area to maximise the. influence on gas usage, stocks and costs.

When historians ask why Russia's invasion of Ukraine and. sanctions enforced in reaction did not trigger shortages and a more. extended and extreme spike in costs, they are likely to point out. extremely warm winters in both 2022/23 and 2023/24 rather. than policy actions as the primary factor.

Europe's gas customers got really fortunate in the winter season of. 2023/24 and have actually seen costs normalise. For the same factor,. Asia's importers are now taking advantage of enhanced schedule. and much lower costs.

On The Other Hand, North America's manufacturers have been pushed into. a deep downturn as they have a hard time to sell in a market awash with too. much gas.

Next winter season is most likely to be chillier in The United States and Canada and. Europe.

In the meantime, lower prices will result in slower or no. production growth in the United States, which must cause the. market to tighten up gradually over the next 12 months.

Associated columns:

- Europe gets lucky with a mild, windy winter season (March 13,. 2024)

- Europe's mild winter leaves gas stocks at record high. ( March 7, 2024)

- El Niño pushes real U.S. gas prices to multi-decade low. ( February 16, 2024)

- Europe's inflamed gas stocks drive costs lower (February. 13, 2024)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)