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United States oil futures draw renewed interest from hedge funds: Kemp

Portfolio investors purchased petroleum agreements for the very first time in seven weeks as traders squared up short positions ahead of a conference of OPEC? ministers to decide production policy in the second half of 2024.

Hedge funds and other money managers bought the equivalent of 21 million barrels in the 6 crucial futures and choices contracts over the 7 days ending on May 28.

The purchases were the first after 6 weeks of sales amounting to 304 million barrels given that April 9, according to records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Product Futures Trading Commission.

The majority of the purchases originated from closing out previous bearish brief positions (+16 million barrels) rather than producing brand-new bullish long ones (+6 million).

Even after short covering, the combined position was just 402 million barrels (19th percentile for all weeks since 2013). while bullish longs outnumbered bearish shorts by 2.51:1 (24th. percentile).

Fund managers remained sceptical about the probability of. price boosts, even with costs near the long-lasting average. and OPEC? ministers signalling they would extend production. restraint (agreed 5 days later).

In the most recent week, buying was greatly concentrated in. NYMEX and ICE WTI (+32 million barrels) with little purchases in. Brent (+2 million) and U.S. diesel (+2 million).

There were sales in both U.S. gas (-5 million barrels). and European gas oil (-9 million).

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

Fund supervisors continued to turn far from the Brent. global unrefined benchmark and towards the WTI U.S. local. marker.

Funds have actually bought 89 million barrels of WTI in the most. recent three weeks while offering 173 million barrels of Brent in. the last 4.

Some of this rotation has shown evaporation of the. previous war-risk premium in Brent, as the conflict in between. Israel, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis has been. consisted of.

But the increased bullishness around WTI might likewise be an. sign of an approaching squeeze on deliverable supplies. around the contract's delivery place at Cushing in Oklahoma.

Commercial unrefined stocks at Cushing diminished by nearly 2. million barrels over the seven days ending on May 24, the. largest drawdown for 17 weeks.

Cushing stocks were 11 million barrels (-25% or -0.76. standard discrepancies) below the prior 10-year seasonal average.

Even a few weeks of exhaustions could leave deliverable. supplies very low and make the contract vulnerable to. another capture.

U.S. NATURAL GAS

Fund supervisors have actually ended up being gradually more bullish about. the outlook for U.S. gas costs, expecting that strong demand. from gas-fired generators and the restart of LNG export. facilities will remove excess stocks.

Funds bought the equivalent of 316 billion cubic feet. ( bcf) in the 2 significant contracts linked to prices at Henry Center. in Louisiana over the seven days ending on May 28.

Funds have actually been net purchasers in five of the current 6 weeks,. purchasing a total of 1,365 bcf because April 16.

The fund community held a net long position of 881 bcf (53rd. percentile for all weeks given that 2010) up from a net short of. 1,675 bcf (3rd percentile) in mid February and the most bullish. position because the end of October 2023.

U.S. working gas inventories were still 616 bcf (+28% or. +1.43 standard discrepancies) above the previous 10-year average on. May 24.

However the surplus has been broadly stable or even narrowed. a little since the middle of March, indicating production,. intake and exports are now close to balance after large. surpluses in 2023 and early 2024.

If production starts to decline, following drilling cuts. revealed in February, or intake rises much faster, inherited. inventories are likely to deplete over the next 9 months,. which has begun to draw funds back into the market.

Associated columns:

- Oil market torpor sends out investors to other products( May. 30, 2024)

- Investors desert bullish case for United States fuel( May 15,. 2024)

- Formerly bullish investors discard oil as need. disappoints( May 13, 2024)

- Sustainable fuels take bite out of U.S. diesel. intake( May 10, 2024)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)