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EU's von der Leyen supports partnership with Canada in an 'openly hostile' world
The head of the European Commission has called on 'Wednesday' for EU countries to form a new partnership with Canada to combat climate change, China and other major challenges. Ursula von der Leyen, in her annual address to the European Parliament at Strasbourg, outlined the priorities of the 27-nation EU in the coming year. She said that the only solution to this problem was for all member states to work together. "Our path is obvious." "Building an independent Europe with the power to act." With Russia's invasion in Ukraine, the 27-nation group faces war at its borders. The 27-nation bloc faces stiff competition from Donald Trump's United States and an assertive China on trade issues. In addition to the EU's domestic challenges, there are also major obstacles in Europe. These include the growing popularity of an eurosceptic right-wing, as seen in recent regional elections in Germany that have undermined Chancellor Friedrich Merz. According to opinion polls, Marine Le Pen is the front-runner in France's presidential election next year. "Our Union is stronger than ever." Von?der Leyen stated that the state of our Union could also be as fragile as ever. Work with Canada Von der Leyen, who is now serving her second five-year stint at the top of the EU executive, would also stress the importance of maintaining European independence in different sectors, such as energy, raw materials, and clean technologies. Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, was welcomed warmly by EU legislators as he arrived in Strasbourg to hear von der Leyen speak. Von der Leyen stated, "We would like to bring the relationship with Canada up to the highest possible level." "I would like to open the door to Canada becoming the first associate member in the EU. Carney received a standing ovation after Von?der Lieen approached him and hugged him. CHINA TRADE DEFICIT Von der Leyen then turned to the issue of trade and said that the EU would use all means possible to reduce its "unsustainable trade deficit" with China. She stated that the imbalance had reached a critical point, with a goods trade deficit last year of EUR1 billion ($1.15billion) per day. Let me be clear: We will use every tool at our disposal to restore balance in our relationship. Words can be good. "But deeds were better," she said. FIGHT CLIMATE CCHANGE Von der Leyen said that the bloc would need to continue its ambitious course on mitigating the climate change, but also increase efforts to adapt to it. He drew on the experiences of the past three months in which the continent had been hit by unprecedented wildfires and heat waves.
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Bahrain's Alba produces 1.3 million tonnes of aluminum per year, CEO claims
The CEO of Alba Aluminium Bahrain said that the company produces aluminium at a rate of 1.3 millions metric tons per year, as opposed to 1.6 million tons before the Iran war. Alba, the world's largest aluminium smelter, closed production lines 1, 2 and 3 after the outbreak of war, as the Strait of Hormuz was closed, limiting exports. In late March, an Iranian attack hit the plant. Ali 'Al Baqali, on the sidelines the Fastmarkets Aluminum Conference in Budapest, said that Alba now operates lines?4,?5, and?6 at its smelter. This is equivalent to 1.3 millions?tons of aluminium per year. He called the Iranian attack a "small and minor attack". "We have already fixed the damages." Al Baqali added that Alba was covered by insurance. Al Baqali stated that its overall capacity will return to 1.6 mt when it completes the acquisition of French Aluminium Dunkerque within the next few months. Alba brings in 300-350 trucks of raw material alumina daily to maintain production, according to the CEO. Al Baqali said that the logistic operation was "expensive" but the London Metal Exchange aluminium prices and the premiums for metals were offset. Al Baqali, a spokesperson for Alba, said that Alba exports metal via the Saudi port of Jeddah, located on the Red Sea, and Sohar, Oman. This is in spite of the ongoing hostilities across the Middle East.
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Martin Vladimirov: ROI-Europe cannot win the AI race without an integrated energy market.
Mario Draghi, the former president of the European Central Bank, warned Europe in 2012 that it would face a "slow pain" if it did not revive investment and productivity. Now, the continent faces the risk of proving his right one data centre and at a time. Europe is falling behind in the AI race. Look at the scale difference. In July, the European Commission announced plans to build seven massive AI computing hubs. Eighteen out of 27 European Union governments have bid for at least one of these hubs, with a commitment of around EUR3 billion ($3.5billion) in future computing purchases. According to S&P Global Ratings, the capital expenditure of six hyperscalers based mainly in the United States is expected to reach $1.3 trillion dollars by 2027. These spending commitments may not be directly comparable but they do highlight a huge - and insurmountable- investment gap. In order to begin closing this gap, EU must address its fragmented market for energy. The EU's energy system is currently unable to transport electricity from the point where it is produced to where a new industrial demand emerges. Weak interconnections and large differences in transmission fees, as well as complicated permit procedures, divide what was supposed to be one market. It has huge economic implications. According to the International Energy Agency, the average price for electricity in 2025 will be around $107 per megawatt hour. This was almost 57% higher than China and more than double the U.S. These high costs have had a devastating impact on the traditional industries. According to a senior analyst at the Center for the Study of Democracy, Marius Koppen, an analysis of Eurostat's data showed that the overall production in Europe was just 1% higher in 2025 than it was in 2021. The decline in chemicals production was 19%, and the output of basic steel and iron, cement, and aluminium fell by 16%, 14 %, and 11 %, respectively. The decline in manufacturing is not solely due to energy. The decline in manufacturing is not only due to energy costs. While most of Europe has recovered from the COVID-19 Pandemic and energy crisis that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in full force, Europe's industrial base is still suffering. Energy prices have risen again following the U.S. - Iran war. Access to affordable, reliable energy is more important than ever as Europe looks to join the AI Industrial Revolution. GEOGRAPHY OF ENERGY Europe's struggle to capitalize on the AI boom highlights the unfinished business of the bloc's integration of energy. Around 40% of EU distribution grids are older than 40 years. According to the European Commission, EUR584 billion in investment will be needed by 2030 for modernizing and extending electricity networks throughout the EU. A data centre can be built in two years but connecting it to Europe’s outdated transmission system can take seven. The AI infrastructure that is currently being developed has a high concentration. According to CSD's analysis of announcements by companies and records from national investment agencies, 68 EU major data-centres have been announced since 2024. Four countries, France, Spain Finland and Sweden, account for 43. The availability of low-carbon, affordable electricity and reliable grid connections is one of the major reasons behind the concentration. CSD estimates based on comparable national electricity prices show that a 100-megawatt centre generates an annual electricity bill in Germany of EUR254 millions and EUR153 in Spain. However, only EUR91 in Finland where the electricity mix is dominated primarily by nuclear energy and renewables. LIMITING FACTOR In order to create an integrated electric market in Europe, the European Union will have to change its economics. First, it would be important to make energy more easily available across borders. Investing in battery storage and expanding nuclear power could also help to reduce the reliance on imported gas. Grid operators could also benefit from a map of future demand that is credible across the bloc. This would allow Brussels and national governments to plan grids, oversee renewable generation, and consider industrial demand in concert. Multilateral financial institutions, such as the European Investment Bank and national governments, can also fund grid development in a proactive manner, rather than waiting for customers. Finaly, Europe could create a framework that would accelerate grid connections and construction permits. It makes little sense to build an AI gigafactory across all member states, but the Commission can select sites based on credible demand. The interconnected computing nodes could allow all EU nations to gain access. Many obstacles would be in the way of a deeper integration of the EU, such as bureaucracy and competing national interests. Fixing the power system will not eliminate Europe's other AI flaws. The EU is a small producer of semiconductors, and it lacks advanced fabrication capabilities. The EU is a leader when it comes to advanced chipmaking lithography. This is led by the Dutch equipment maker ASML. However, other than that, Europe relies heavily on U.S. design, Asian manufacturing, and non-European clouds platforms. Without it, Europe has very little chance of making it past the starting line. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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India's NSE will launch an IPO amid investor caution about derivative-fueled growth
Investors are cautious about capital market firms due to declining derivative trading volumes. This has already affected the price of the offering. The IPO of 'India's largest bourse, which is set to be third-largest in the country's history, will 'begin' with anchor investor bids from institutional funds. It's an offer for sale from existing private investors and no new capital is being raised. Open subscriptions begin Thursday and end on September 21. Investors will be asked to value one of the world's biggest derivatives exchanges at a moment when its main growth engine has slowed down. This raises questions about the extraordinary growth driven by derivatives that the exchange can maintain. Public filings on September 11 showed that the NSE shares would be sold in a range of 1 700 to 1 785 Indian rupees (17.72 to 18.00), which values the company at 46 billion dollars. According to two anonymous sources who have direct knowledge of this matter, the value is between 15% and 20% less than that sought at pre-deal roadshows. It is also 40% less than what the private markets?sales of NSE share in 2024 suggested. Investors are unwilling to pay more because regulatory changes have slowed the growth of options trading. Also, a reorganization of trading rules has been implemented to align Indian markets to global standards. The NSE earns 80% of their revenue through trading, of which 60% comes from options trading. Volumes have fallen 27% since 2024. "NSE’s high exposure in derivatives is a two-edged blade." The company's large liquidity pool and scale are clearly competitive advantages, but also make its earnings more susceptible to regulatory changes or shifts in trading activities," said Gary Tan. Even at this valuation, NSE will still be one of the top 10 listed exchanges in the world. Two sources familiar with the matter confirmed that several institutional investors around the world, including sovereign wealth fund and asset managers who only hold long positions, had made commitments at the lower offer price. They said that this includes Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Singapore's GIC and Fidelity Investment Management, Norges Bank Investment Management, Carmignac and Life Insurance Corporation of India. GIC, Norges ADIA, Carmignac and Fidelity refused to comment on our request, and LIC did not respond to any of our questions. Sriram Krishnan (chief business development officer, NSE) pointed out in a Saturday press conference that there was a disconnect between current expectations of shareholders and the price offered. Some shareholders believe that NSE is worth more than the price at which we propose to do an IPO. For them, NSE is worth more. "There is money on the table. Tests are slowed down by a variety of options. Reduced derivative trading volume has had a negative impact on the NSE's bottom line. Revenue from operations dropped 3.1% and profit fell 15.5% in the fiscal year that ended March 2026. Bernstein predicts that Indian equity derivatives are entering a normalisation phase and that growth will slow down to 5% by the fiscal year ending 2027, due to new regulatory measures for options trading. The NSE's IPO price implies a forward earnings multiplier of 35 to 40 times FY2028 earnings. This is higher than the current trading multiples for global exchange operators - Nasdaq Group, CME Group Deutsche Borse HKEX, LSEG and CME Group. The current closing price mechanism is based on the fact that options trading has slowed down due to tighter regulations and there are initial "teething" issues. Anubhav Dayal is the founder of Hong Kong based fund manager Soach Global Corporation. He said that if the IPO had been launched at a different time, it could have resulted in a better valuation. In the offering, his flagship fund sells 20% of its NSE holding. The NSE launched electronic gold receipts and natural gas futures in the last 15 months. It also incorporated a coal exchange. NSE's Krishnan said on Saturday that these efforts are positives and outweigh any concerns about short-term derivative volume. He said that in the long term there would be a lot of diversification and people would forget about index options.
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Oil slips as oil prices fall and Asian markets are shaky ahead of Fed's decision
As a result of a break in the global bond market and a fall in oil prices, stocks in Asia edged up on Wednesday. This helped calm nerves ahead of a crucial Federal Reserve decision that would be made later in the day. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan, after a shaky beginning, was up 0.5%. This ended a four-day loss streak. Gains in Korean and Taiwanese stocks led the way. The Nikkei rose by 0.3% while S&P500 e-minis futures gained 0.2%. After failing to reach the 5% threshold, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States remained flat at 4.9938 percent. This was after the bond had broken that barrier on Tuesday for first time in 3 years. Later in the day, Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference and announce the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. The analysts at JPMorgan wrote: "We maintain a tactically conservative/neutral outlook on the Fed." They noted that the market consensus is for a rate hike of 25 basis points with little guidance going forward. They added that the meeting "could serve as a clearing event for the market to reset expectations of rate hikes", but cautioned "inaction could risk institutional credibility". The bank predicts that if no hike occurs and bond yields continue their?rally due to higher inflation expectations, then the S&P 500 will move 1.25%-1.75 % lower. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has stated repeatedly that he prefers lower interest rates. He said last month that the U.S. would stop trading with nations with whom it has a deficit in trade if the Fed did not reduce rates. According to CME Group’s FedWatch, traders have analyzed these threats and are confident that the Federal Reserve will announce a hike of 25 basis points when they announce their policy decision. This is a 93% implied probability, up from a 61.2% a week earlier. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% overnight on Wall Street. This is the second consecutive day that the index has fallen. The U.S. equity market closed lower over night as rising Treasury yields and another 'jump' in crude oil, along with the polarised debate about the pace of AI development, left the market in a conservative mood, said Tony Sycamore. The U.S. dollar index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, fell?0.1%, to 99.601, after reaching a near-two-week high. Brent crude futures fell 0.6% to $108.13 per barrel in Asian trade after gaining 2.9% on the previous day. Shipping industry sources reported that crude loadings had been suspended at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export center of Yanbu and Riyadh canceled some cargo deliveries for European customers. Digital assets recovered from a steep drop after the U.S. Senate voted on Tuesday against comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation supported by Trump. Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $75,821.94, and ether dropped 0.2% at $2,402.12.
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Morning bid Europe-Warsh in collision with Trump administration
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve Chair, is likely to be bruised in some way from Wednesday's policy announcement. Markets may revolt if he remains 'pat. The White House will almost certainly act if he decides to raise rates. Federal Open Market Committee is in a tight spot ahead of their meeting. Inflation remains above target and oil prices are above $100 per barrel. Traders have priced a 93% probability of a rate increase. However, the path of interest rates for next year, including U.S., is still uncertain. A rate hike comes with its own set of risks. President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for lower borrowing rates and threatened last month to cut off trade with countries that have surpluses in the U.S. It's hard to tell if this is just bluster. On Wednesday, the markets did get some respite - 'the yield on?U.S. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is now lower than it was a day ago, when it had surpassed 5%. The oil prices have also fallen, as an unexpected increase in U.S. crude stocks has slowed the rally. Brent crude fell 0.9% to $107.82 per barrel. Investor confidence has been shaky this week as other central banks such as the Bank of Japan are also expected to tighten their policies. After several false starts, stocks managed to make a cautious recovery. The Nikkei added 0.4%, while the MSCI broadest index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6%. Early trading saw the tentative optimism spread to Europe. The pan-region Euro Stoxx50 futures, German Dax futures, and FTSE?futures were all up 0.3%. Digital assets also extended their losses after the U.S. Senate rejected comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation supported by Trump on Tuesday. Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $78,816.24, and?ether dropped 0.2% to $2,000.27. The following are key developments that could influence the markets on Wednesday. Announcements from companies Barratt ?Redrow, Babcock International Group , Lennar Corp Economic Events UK CPI, RPI, and PPI for August Euro Zone: industrial production for July and Q2 labour costs Debt auctions: Germany: Government debt for 21 and 30 years
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Canada and EU closer ties
The head of the European Commission will call for solidarity on Wednesday in order to tackle climate change, artificial intelligent and the competition from China. He will argue that no one EU country can face these challenges alone. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, will deliver her annual address to the European Parliament at Strasbourg and set the priorities for the EU's 27 member states for the coming year. Officials said that Von?der?der Leyen will emphasize the need to maintain European autonomy in different sectors such as energy, raw materials, and clean technologies. To do this, EU countries will not only have to work together but also need strong partners, like Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, who will be in Strasbourg on Thursday and give his own speech to the EU Assembly. Von der Leyen will likely say that while Canada can't join the European Union (EU), the EU is trying to get it as close to the bloc as possible because Canada shares Europe values and could reduce the EU's dependence on China in terms of raw materials and processing. She will likely note that while she is in favor of negotiating with China to reduce the unsustainable EUR1 billion-a-day EU Trade?deficit but that the talks must produce results quickly, otherwise the EU may have to take other measures to protect its economic. Officials stated that she would be expected to 'point out that the EU has already experienced the effects of climate changes like no other continent. The bloc will have to continue its ambitious path in mitigating climate changes, but also step up efforts for adaptation. They can learn from the experiences of 'the last three month when the continent suffered unprecedented heatwaves and?wildfires. She will likely say that EU leaders must do more to address the concerns of citizens about artificial intelligence being a threat to jobs and cybersecurity, and ensure that 'Europe's economic benefits from AI. Officials said that Von der Leyen will also talk about migration into the EU and how we need to learn from crises such as the one in Ceuta, which occurred at the end July.
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Oil slips as Asian markets are brittle before Fed decision
The 'Asian trading session' on Wednesday saw stocks in a holding pattern as global bond yields and oil prices paused before the Federal Reserve policy announcement due later that day. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan has fluctuated between gainsand losses, after falling during the four previous sessions. It was trading at last up 0.3%. Gains for Taiwanese stocks were offset by declines from China. The Nikkei fell 0.1% while S&P500 e-minis futures grew 0.1%. In Asian trade, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond fell 0.85 basis points to 4.9875% after it breached the 5% threshold on Tuesday for the first time in three-years. This was ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision and a press conference by Fed chair Kevin Warsh. JPMorgan analysts stated that they maintain "our tactically conservative/neutral view" of the Fed, pointing out that the market consensus is expecting a 25 basis point rate hike with little guidance going forward. They added that the meeting "could reset expectations for rate hikes" in the market. But they warned, "inaction could risk?institutional credibility" and provoke a violent reaction from equity markets. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has stated repeatedly that he prefers lower interest rates. He said last month that the U.S. would stop trading with nations with whom it has a deficit in trade if the Fed did not reduce rates. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool and based on the implied probability of a hike by the Federal Reserve, traders believe it is almost certain. They have priced an implied 92.4% likelihood that the Fed will announce a 25 basis-point increase when they announce their policy decision. This compares with a 59.4% possibility a week earlier. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% overnight on Wall Street. This is the second consecutive day that the index has fallen. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond hit its highest level since 2007. The U.S. equity market closed lower overnight due to?rising Treasury rates, another jump in crude oil and the polarised discussion around pacing AI developments, said Tony Sycamore. The?U.S. The dollar index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, was trading near a 2-week high of 99.675. Brent crude futures fell 0.8% to $107.86 per barrel in Asian trade after rising 2.9% the previous day. Shipping industry sources reported that crude loadings had been suspended at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export center of Yanbu and Riyadh had cancelled certain cargo deliveries to European clients. Digital assets recovered from a steep decline after the U.S. Senate voted on Tuesday against comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation supported by President Donald Trump. Bitcoin remained flat at $75.898.71 while ether fell 0.3% to 2.400.46.
Indian shares open higher after recent selloff, but higher oil and Fed caution will cap gains
Indian shares will open higher on Tuesday, as the benchmarks are poised for a "technical" rebound after the Nifty50 closed at its lowest level in five months during the previous session.
As of 7:54 am IST, the GIFT Nifty Futures were trading at around 23,218.50, which indicates a positive start for the Nifty Index, which closed on Tuesday at 23,118.60.
The Nifty 50 as well as the Sensex are both in oversold levels, and a technical rebound is not ruled out at current levels. Vatsal Bhuta, a technical analysts at LKP Securities, stated that the overall trend is still bearish.
Analysts expect the markets to remain subdued due to the elevated crude oil prices, increased activity on the primary market and the U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision that will be announced later in the day.
On Wednesday, three IPOs will be available for subscription, including those?of Hero Motors and SS Retail, as well as Jindal Supreme India. This brings the total of?active IPOs up to four.
The benchmarks started the day about 0.8% higher, but then reversed their gains to finish more than 1% each lower.
"Crude Oil?remains a dominant overhang on domestic markets." "Even in the previous session the markets failed to maintain the opening gains due to broad-based sales as high oil prices and strong Treasury yields weighed down on investor sentiment", said Ponmudi, CEO of Enrich Money.
Brent crude traded around $108.3 per barrel, after closing Tuesday at a four-month high. This was due to the increased supply risk following Saudi Arabia's suspension on oil loading in its Yanbu port as well as cuts to oil shipping to Europe.
Investors in other Asian markets were tame ahead of the Fed's policy announcement, which is due after Indian hours. Most investors expect a rate increase.
The higher U.S. interest rates are making emerging markets like?India less attractive to investors around the world, and also affecting growth in sectors like Indian IT, which gets a large part of its revenue from U.S.
On Tuesday, foreign institutional investors reported net outflows from the domestic market of 29,78 billion rupees (about $301,37 million). This was their highest level since September 4. According to NSE data, domestic institutional investors were net purchasers with inflows of 26,86 billion rupees.
STOCKS TO WATCH
** Paytm and Pine Labs may rise in value after NPCI implements a merchant discount rate of 0.4% on'selected person-to-merchant transaction above 2,000 Rupees starting Oct. 15
* NBCC receives orders totaling 1.45 billion rupees, including from NEEPCO and SAIL
BHEL signs joint venture agreement with Titagarh Rail Systems to maintain Vande Bharat sleeper trains.
(source: Reuters)