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After years of stagnation, New Zealand's interest in gas exploration is picking up.
Seven oil and gas companies are racing to secure offshore exploration rights before a New Zealand national election, which could result in a ban on new permits. The country's main parties?battle about the need for natural gas. New Zealand has attracted?interest? after the conservative government overturned last year a ban on offshore drilling, imposed in 2018. The goal was to avoid gas shortages for industry users and boost power generation during dry years when hydropower production falls. In May, the country produced 7,6 petajoules (PJ) of gas. This was largely due to fields that have declined or are about to decline. The government reported in January that gas reserves will drop 23%, to 731 PJ by 2025. The gas is all used in New Zealand. According to Energy Resources Aotearoa, if there were more gas available, the demand would increase by 100 PJ per year. According to industry and government, the former Prime Minister Jacinda's government prohibited offshore bids. They also waited long for environmental approvals. After the offshore ban came into effect, Chevron and Equinor both renounced their exploration permits. "We're kind of jammed at one side." "We've got mature and old fields near the end of their life at one end," said ERA Chief Executive John Carnegie. We have a gap of?seven years because of the ban. He said that we are rebuilding the entire sector from scratch. New Zealand set up a fund of NZ$200,000,000 ($117,000,000) last year to assist operators in?developing projects, such as extracting more gas from mature reservoirs. But so far, no new permits were issued. A PROMISING FIND Sunda Energy, based in the UK, Pancontinental Energy of Australia and EnZed (privately owned) have all received grants and are waiting for formal permits. Three New Zealand companies are working together to secure another permit, and CBX Energy has been working on securing a permit for the Canterbury Basin off the South Island. Three months is the time limit for competitors to come up with superior plans of work in the same area. EnZed and Sunda are both targeting the Taranaki Basin, which is the only offshore producing basin in the country. This area has extensive subsurface data as well as known gas discoveries. Andy Butler, Sunda's CEO, said: "We find it an interesting discovery. We'd love to work with it." It is a country that attracts smaller explorers, especially at a moment when the gas policy in Australia, whose neighbour is a major player in the sector has caused confusion and consternation. Neil Young, founder of EnZed, said: "I believe that Australia's domestic?gas mess has caused capital?allocators to look at New Zealand as a possible alternative." Shane Jones, Minister of Resources, said that investor confidence is returning. He said, "It took us a long time to get the regulatory environment straightened out and people have recently shown that they are willing to take a risk and give it a try." The explorers are looking to secure drilling rights before the New Zealand election in November, as the Labour Party intends to reinstate a ban on off-shore exploration while honoring existing permits. Tangi Utikere, acting Labour Energy and Resources spokesperson said: "Labour will reinstate a ban on the issuance of new oil and gas permits. It's the right decision for New Zealand's long-term energy security and to reduce power bills." He said: "We have stated that we will honour existing permits. However, we do not believe the government should support an outdated industry." The polls show that the race for the presidential election is still too close to call.
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Gold prices steady as markets evaluate Middle East escalation and Fed raise bets
Gold prices were little changed Monday as investors assessed the escalation of the Middle East conflict that has pushed up oil prices, and another U.S. Federal Reserve official signaled that higher interest rates may be necessary to reduce price pressures. As of 0455 GMT, spot gold was $4,018.90 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August 'delivery' gained 0.1%, to $4 023.10. U.S. gold futures for August?delivery gained 0.1% to $4,023.10. Brian Lan, GoldSilver Central's Managing Director, said: "The war continues, and the focus is on rising oil costs that could lead higher inflation. This is what keeps gold under pressure." The metal is still supported when the price falls below $4,000. Oil prices are rising, which is causing inflation fears and speculation about higher interest rates for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates increase the opportunity costs of holding this non-yielding investment. Beth Hammack, Cleveland Fed President, added her voice to the growing chorus of policymakers who argue that?interest rates might need to be raised to beat back persistent price inflation. This will set up a heated debate at the next Fed meeting on July 29, According to CME FedWatch, traders now price in an 82% probability of a December rate hike, up from 73% last week. Kelvin Wong is a senior market analyst at OANDA. He said: "I'm cautious about gold in the long term and I am looking at the $3,886 key level. If it were to be taken down on the downside, this could unleash further weakness towards $3,500." The price of spot silver rose 1.7%, to $56.87 an ounce. Platinum was unchanged at $1,592.34, while palladium increased 0.1% to $1,249.25. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips and Harikrishnan Nair in Bengaluru, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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HDFC Bank drags down Indian shares; oil prices also weigh
Indian?shares fell on Monday. The decline was largely due to the?HDFC Bank reducing its quarterly net interest margins. By 10:04 a.m. IST, the?benchmark Nifty 50 index fell 0.60%, to 24,187.25. The BSE Sensex dropped 0.76%, to 77566.17. HDFC Bank fell 5%, its steepest intraday drop in four months, after in-line June-quarter profit was overshadowed by a sharper-than-expected net interest margin decline. HDFC Bank's?drop was greater than Reliance Industries' 0.3% increase and ICICI Bank?s 0.6% gain after their results. Reliance surpassed profit expectations on the strength of oil-to chemicals and telecom?verticals. This was announced after market hours on Friday. ICICI Bank also reported a higher than expected profit for the June quarter, due to strong?loan demands. Kotak Mahindra Bank & Axis Bank both fell by 3% & 6% respectively after multiple brokerages flagged softer first quarter margins. Analysts at Jefferies, Prakhar Sharma & Vinayak Agarwal said that the rise in corporate loans as well as recent spikes in wholesale prices have led to a decline in net interest margins for banks in this quarter. They said that they expected margins to be under pressure during the current September quarter. Seven of the 16 major sectors suffered losses. Banks and financials both lost 1.5%. Private lenders dropped 2.5%. Small-caps and midcaps both rose by?0.2%. The price of crude oil topped $90 per barrel and weighed on the sentiment after the?U.S. Forces?struck Iran on a ninth consecutive night. India's vulnerability will be re-emerging if this trend continues with negative implications for the rupee, and foreign flows, said VK Vijayakumar. Chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments. ONGC and Oil India buck the trend by rising 1.6% and 2.5% respectively, as the upstream oil producers gain from higher crude prices, which improves revenue and profitability. VA Tech Wabag increased its revenue by 4.7% as a result of winning contracts for wastewater treatment facilities. (Reporting and editing by Vivek M and Bharathrajeswaran, Subhranshu Sahu and Ronojoy Mazumdar; Niveditor Bhattacharjee).
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Morning Bid Europe-Rising Oil, rains on AI Party
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. While Spain hoisted the World Cup in celebration, the U.S. Military began?its ninth day of attacks against Iran. Iran was also?hitting targets throughout the region. On Sunday, only a few ships crossed the 'Strait of Hormuz. One was on fire. Brent crude oil rose above $90 per barrel for the very first time since June. Treasury bond futures fell as investors lowered the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September. The implied probability was around 65%. The rise in 30-year Treasury rates above 5.0% is a warning to equity valuations. A quick glance at a chart shows that yields have rarely risen above this barrier over the last two decades. Stocks tend to suffer when they do. This week, Alphabet, Intel and Tesla are among the companies that will be reporting their earnings. The expectations for tech profits is sky high and the results must be truly exceptional to avoid being punished. Taiwanese chips maker TSMC beat its guidance last week, but shares fell 7%. The chip-heavy South Korean market has fallen by a quarter over the last month, as retail investors were forced out of leveraged positions. The index fell another 3.0% Monday, but that was a better result than many had expected. The Nikkei 225 was on holidays in Japan, but the futures actually traded higher. This gave hope of stabilisation. Futures for Nasdaq &?S&P500 were slightly firmer. This was a good performance, given the recent negative news. The latest spike in oil prices will cause a headache to the European Central Bank, which is meeting on Thursday. It's expected that they will keep rates at 2.25 percent following June's increase. Markets are almost fully priced in for an increase at the September meeting, and rates of 2.5% to begin next year. The sterling held steady at $1.3447 while bond markets awaited the appointment of a new Treasurer by Britain's incoming PM Andy Burnham. Shabana Mahmood is the preferred candidate of the market ahead of Ed Miliband. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact - Canada CPI, U.S. Leading Index for June
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Copper prices rise as fears over supply offset demand concerns
Prices of copper edged up on Monday due to a?shrinking inventory and supply risk, but uncertainty about the?demand outlook limited gains. By 0300 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange had risen 0.16% to $13,546.5 per metric ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose 0.39%, to 104210 yuan (US$15,389.50). Daniel Hynes said that the growth of copper production in Chile, the world's largest producer, has been "elusive" so far, according to a note by Daniel Hynes senior commodity strategist with ANZ. South32, an Australian mining company, reported lower fourth quarter copper production, falling short of market expectations. Inclement weather at the Sierra Gorda Project in Chile hampered operations. BHP Group announced last week that its fourth-quarter output of copper fell by 5%. It also predicted a decline in Chilean production of copper next year. Goldman Sachs stated on Monday that it expects ex-U.S. Copper market to remain tight in the near term. Goldman Sachs said that prices may be affected if the Middle East conflict escalates and increases inflation and rate hike fears. Copper inventories are declining. Copper stocks available on the LME The number of warrants issued has dropped sharply in the wake of a wave cancellations. As of Friday, more than half (55%) of the copper stored in LME registered warehouses was under a cancelled warrant, which means that they were earmarked for removal, according to data from the exchange. The U.S. has also imported metal ahead of a possible tariff on?refined?copper. In the meantime, the U.S.-Iran conflict continued over the weekend. This boosted oil prices while fanned fears that inflation would lead to higher interest rates for longer. Increased interest rates dampen economic activity, which in turn affects industrial minerals that are dependent on growth. Aluminium?added 0.32 %, Zinc?strengthened 0.38%, Lead?slid 0.05% and Nickel rose 0.47%. Tin gained 0.51%. Aluminium fell 0.24% on SHFE. Zinc dropped 0.61%. Lead ticked higher by 0.06%. Nickel dipped by 0.18%. Tin rose 1.88%.
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Weather agency: 'Super El Nino' to bring record temperatures to Malaysia next year
Malaysia's meteorological department has said that it expects to record high temperatures in Malaysia next year due to the strengthening of?El Nino. El Nino is a natural part of the weather cycle. It's characterized by weakened trade winds, and warmer ocean currents. Climate experts warn of a super-strong El Nino in this year. This could lead to severe weather like droughts, heatwaves and floods. Malaysia's Director-General of the Meteorological Department, Mohd Hisham Mohd Aip, said that the agency predicts El Nino will peak between March 2027 and May 2027. Maximum temperatures are expected to exceed the 1998 Chuping record of 40.1, degrees Celsius (104.2 degrees Fahrenheit). In an interview, he stated that Malaysia's average temperatures have risen since the 1980s. The highest temperatures are often recorded when "super" El Nino occurs. Mohd Hisham said that the global warming was a factor in the rising heat. He said that the?department expected much lower rainfall in the northern areas of Malaysian Peninsula, as well as higher temperatures in Sabah and Sarawak - Malaysia's two largest palm oil producing States on Borneo Island. Sabah's proximity to the Pacific is one of the reasons why some of El Nino's most powerful effects are seen there, he said.
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European chemical earnings will test the recovery of demand after conflict-driven pricing boost
Investors are increasingly interested in whether this temporary boost can offset weak demand and the mounting competition of Asian producers. The Middle East conflict has tightened supply conditions, which have helped to support pricing. This has given breathing space to Europe's chemical sector. However, weak demand, overcapacity globally and increasing competition from Asia are still weighing on the long-term outlook of the industry. Investors are also interested in whether the companies have reported sustained volume gains or only temporary price increases, as well their outlooks for second half of the calendar year. Brenntag, BASF, and Evonik are among the chemical companies that have recently increased their profit forecasts for the full year. This suggests that parts of industry are benefiting from higher prices and resilient demand, despite concerns over excess capacity and low volumes. Lanxess Clariant Wacker Chemie results will be closely examined for signs that recent price support is translating to stronger earnings. Analysts say investors have shifted their focus in recent weeks away from the margin benefits of shortages in supply to concern over the underlying weakness in demand in Europe's chemicals sector. MIDDLE-EAST CONFLICT DRIVEN UPLIFT TO FADE Since years, European chemical companies have been struggling with high energy prices, weak demand, and fierce price competition from Asian competitors. The Middle East conflict provided a short-term boost to the chemicals industry in the region, as disruptions in supply raised prices for Asian competitors and made customers prioritize reliability over price. The increase in investment and demand has not been enough to compensate for the weakening of the industry. VCI, the German chemical industry's body, warned that recent improvements in the chemical sector following Middle East disruptions may only be temporary. The report said that the risks for the second-quarter have increased due to the economic boom caused by the Middle East war. It referred to the stockpiling of customers and the precautionary purchases made after supply concerns. The association stated that demand could re-soften once supply chains are adjusted and pre-purchasing activity fades. This would expose what the association described as a structural weakness in market. The report warned that the sector may face new price pressures and lower order volumes. Before the latest Middle East tensions, European manufacturers warned that Asian competitors would gain ground as energy markets stabilized and regional supply chains adapted. Analysts and Strategists say that periodic disruptions in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and rising energy prices may keep commodity chemical prices high. However, they doubt prices will return to their peaks at the start of the U.S. - Iran war. Sebastian Bray, Berenberg analyst, said that the latest impact was likely to be less than it was before. He added, "I suspect that some Southeast Asian producers of chemicals have become more proficient at producing feedstocks now."
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Gold falls as oil prices rise, Fed rate hike voices grow
Gold?prices?fell on Monday?as a escalation of the Middle?East?war pushed Brent?crude above $90 a?barrel, heightening concerns about inflation after many U.S. Federal Reserve officials signaled that interest rate increases may be necessary to curb price pressures. As of 0242 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.1%, at $4,014.53 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were unchanged at $4,019.80. U.S. officials announced that they had completed nine consecutive nights of attacks against Iran. Earlier, the U.S. announced that two U.S. soldiers were killed in Jordan. Meanwhile, U.S. partners in the region reported more Iranian attacks Sunday. The weekend escalations increased the risk of both sides launching a full-scale offensive, which could threaten gold prices, as the opportunity costs for holding the metal would increase if the ongoing stagflation fear started to take hold, said Kelvin Woong, senior market analyst at OANDA. Brent oil prices rose 3% on the back of reduced energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices that are high can cause inflation fears, and increase the odds of interest rates staying higher for longer. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates can increase the cost of owning the non-yielding investment. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has added her voice to the growing chorus of policymakers who believe that interest rates need to be raised to combat persistent?inflation. This will set up a heated debate at the Fed’s next meeting, and could lead to disagreements during Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second meeting. CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders now price in an 82% chance for a December interest rate hike, up from 73% last weekend. Wong said, "On the long term, I am more cautious about?gold. I look at the $3,886?level which, if broken on the?downside, could potentially unleash a further decline towards $3,500." Other metals, such as spot silver, rose 1.9%, to $56.95 an ounce. Platinum was up by 0.5%, at $1,599.97, and palladium fell 0.2%, to $1,244.50.
Aluminum prices fall as Middle East fears about supply ease
Aluminum prices fell on Monday due to a easing in fears that the weekend tit for tat strikes between Iran and the U.S. would escalate and cause a larger conflict and disrupt Middle East shipments, traders reported.
The benchmark aluminium price on the??London Metal Exchange was down 0.2% at $3,164 per metric ton. The Strait of Hormuz is a major shipping channel. On Tuesday, Washington and Tehran will resume their talks.
Britannia Global Markets stated in a report that "the situation is fluid, and any new disruption could quickly tighten the?availability of... aluminum".
The suspension of the trade through the Strait caused a significant disruption to the aluminium market.
Middle East is home to 9% of the global aluminum smelting capacities. This month, due to disruptions in supplies, prices reached $3,787.50, their highest level since March 2022. Prices of metals used in construction, transport and packaging have fallen by 16% since then.
The premium for the LME cash aluminium contract has fallen from its 19-year-high over the next three months to a discount.
Support for aluminum is at the 200-day moving median, which is currently around $3.160. On the upside, resistance is found at the 100-day Moving Average around $3.410.
Metals markets in other countries are influenced by the strength of the U.S. dollar, making metals priced in dollars more expensive for those with currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
The dollar is on track to?have its biggest monthly gain in over a year. This is due to the growing likelihood of higher interest rates in the United States in order to curb inflationary pressures.
Alastair Munro is a senior base metals analyst at broker Marex. He said that the initial sell-off in the energy and precious metals markets was due to a hawkish U.S. rate backdrop. The industrial metals suite then came under pressure the following week.
Lead gained 0.2% and tin 1.4%, while nickel fell 0.4%.
This week, the manufacturing PMIs of China's top consumer will provide clues about industrial metals demand. Reporting by Pratima Dasai, Editing by Mark Potter & David Goodman
(source: Reuters)