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The US-Iran conflict is heading towards a pivotal deadline with no end in sight
U.S. president Donald Trump faces a Friday deadline to either end the Iran War or convince Congress to extend it. But the deadline is unlikely to change the course of the conflict, which has descended into a standoff about shipping routes. It is highly unlikely that the war will be ended. Analysts and congressional aides say they expect Trump to either notify Congress of his plans for a 30-day delay or ignore the deadline, with the administration arguing that the current ceasefire agreement with Tehran marks the end of the conflict. War powers are deeply partisan. Like many policies in an acrimonious divided Congress, opposition Democrats have called for Congress to assert its constitutional right of declaring war, while Republicans accuse Democrats of trying use War Powers Law to weaken Trump. Since the beginning of the war on February 28, Democrats have repeatedly tried to pass resolutions that would force Trump to withdraw U.S. troops or get congressional approval. Trump's Republicans in the Senate, and House of Representatives who have slim majorities, voted against them almost unanimously. According to the 1973 War Powers Resolution?the U.S. President can only wage military action for 60 days before it ends. He must then come to Congress to seek authorization, or request a 30-day extension if "unavoidable" military necessity is a factor. The Iran conflict began on February 28 when Israel and the United States launched airstrikes against Iran. Trump officially notified Congress 48 hours after the start of the conflict, as required by law, and started the 60-day clock ending May 1. FIRE FRAIL CEASEFIRE A U.S. official said that Trump will receive a briefing Thursday about plans to launch new military strikes against Iran in order to force it to negotiate a resolution to the conflict. Trump could tell lawmakers if fighting continues that he's started a 60-day countdown. This is something presidents of both parties have done many times since Congress passed the War Powers law over Richard Nixon's then-veto in response to Vietnam War. This conflict was also not authorized by the Congress. Iran warned that it would respond to any new attacks by Washington with "long, painful strikes" against U.S. positions. This could complicate Washington's hopes of an international coalition opening the Strait of Hormuz. Six months before the November elections, which will determine who controls Congress in next year's Congress, opinion polls reveal that Americans are unpopular with the Iran War. Trump's approval rating fell to its lowest level in his current term, this month. Americans blamed higher prices on the war and the rising cost of living. Trump still controls his party, and very few Republicans are opposed to his policies. Republicans also strongly support Israel which is also attacking Iran and welcome the weakening Iran as a bitter American enemy. Christopher Preble, senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, said: "It is partisanship plain and simply." "Republicans will not defy President Obama, that's it." 'ACTIVE CONVERSATIONS' The White House is yet to announce its plans or whether it will request that Congress approve an Authorization for the Use of Military Force Against Iran. The administration is actively in conversation with the Hill about this topic. Members of Congress that try to score points by usurping Commander-in Chief's authority will only undermine the United States Military overseas, which is something no elected official would want to do," said a White House Official on condition of anonymity. Only Congress and not the President can declare war in the U.S. Constitution, but this restriction does not apply to short-term operations, or countering an immediate threat. Some Republicans who have previously voted against war power resolutions said they might reconsider after May 1. John Curtis, a Republican senator from Utah, wrote an article in which he said he supported Trump’s actions but that he would not continue military action past the deadline without congressional approval. Others, however, said that they would wait. John Thune, South Dakota's Republican majority Leader, said that it would be ideal if Washington, Tehran and other countries could come to a peaceful agreement. He told reporters, however, that he had not ruled out the possibility of a vote on authorizing war. "We are listening and trying to stay dialed in, getting regular updates from administration on forward progress," Thune told reporters. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate leader from New York, has sponsored resolutions to end war. "Republicans are aware that Trump's handling this war was a disaster. "They see how much American people are suffering right now," he stated in a Senate address, referring the sharp rises in gasoline prices and other costs. How many War Powers Resolutions must Democrats introduce before Senate Republicans act? Schumer asked. (Reporting and additional reporting by Steve Holland, Alistair Bell and Don Durfee; edited by Don Durfee)
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The US wants to borrow about 92.5 millions barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The Trump administration wants to lend up to 92.5 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to energy companies to help calm down oil markets which have risen due to the war against Iran. In March, the U.S. agreed to lend 172 million barrels of oil from the SPR. This was part of a larger agreement?with over 30 countries that are members of the International Energy Agency. The agreement also included the release?of about 400 million 'barrels? to relieve the markets. Fatih Birol is the head of IEA and he has stated that the 'war has caused the worst supply disruptions in history. The U.S. had offered 126,000,000 barrels of crude in three batches until Thursday, but the oil companies took only less than 80,000,000 barrels. If all oil companies accept the new offer, it would meet U.S. goals of lending 172 million barrels. The rising oil prices pose a threat to the fellow Republicans of President Donald Trump in November's midterm elections. Prices have increased despite the use of reserves. On Thursday, global oil prices briefly reached a four-year peak of $126 per barrel on fears that the Middle East could be subjected to prolonged disruptions in supply. The Department of Energy claims that the system will help stabilize the markets at no cost to American tax payers. The SPR is a collection of salt 'caverns' located at four locations on the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. It holds 398 million barrels or roughly what the entire world consumes in four days. (Reporting and editing by Timothy Gardner and Katharine Jones; Caitlin Weir, Franklin Paul, and Keith Weir).
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CEO Repsol says that the company is not in a rush to list its upstream unit on US stock exchange.
Josu Imaz, the chief executive of Repsol, said that the company is not in a hurry to list the oil and gas production unit it has in the United States. This will temper expectations for a 'initial public offering' or reverse merger. Imaz said in late 2018 that its upstream unit is preparing for a liquidity event by 2026. This could be an IPO, or a reverse merge with a listed company?in the U.S. He said that while the unit is technically "ready to go to the American market", it would be better if the fundamentals of the upstream sector improve in the next few months. He said, "We're comfortable with the current situation. We won't jump into a liquid event in the near future." When asked if he was interested in a possible IPO or the alternative to going public - a reverse merger. Imaz spoke after Spain's largest refinery operator, Imaz, reported strong quarterly results. Imaz said that Repsol, and its partner, U.S. Private Equity Fund EIG, who has a 25% stake in the upstream unit "are fully on board with this view". In 2022 Repsol sold its stake in an agreement that valued the entire business at $19 billion including debt. The deal contemplated the?potential U.S. IPO? from 2026, depending on market conditions. The unit has assets in several countries including the United States - namely, the Pikka oil development in Alaska, which is one of?group?s key growth developments - as well as Brazil Mexico Libya and Venezuela. Imaz stated that Repsol's upstream businesses was showing a broad overall progress. He cited developments in Venezuela, "where production is growing with the support of both Venezuelan authorities and U.S. Authorities", as well as advancements in Alaska and Libya.
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Austrian parties ask for last-minute extension to the fuel price "brake"
After initial reports of failure, last-minute discussions between Austria's three ruling parties continued on Thursday. The government must set the amount of the two elements. Austrian media reported that the parties were discussing a lower level but one potential sticking point was that the smallest of three, liberal and fiscally conservative Neos, had been?seeking a guarantee that this mechanism would not be extended beyond May. Austrian media reported that parties were discussing a lowered level. However, one sticking point could be that the smallest party, the liberal fiscally conservative Neos had asked for a guarantee the mechanism wouldn't be extended past May. Some media reported initially?on Friday that the talks failed, but later said they were 'continuing but on a razor edge. Politicians may be more concerned about the political consequences of not reaching an agreement than they are with the financial costs. The cost of living has been ranked as the top concern by voters in polls. Statistik Austria's national statistics office released a?flash estimate on Thursday that put the inflation rate at 3.3% for April, up from 2.3% in January.
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Argentina will increase fuel taxes by May
According to a Thursday decree published in Argentina's official gazette, the government will increase fuel taxes by a portion starting May 1. Further increases will be delayed until June. The aim of this measure is to reduce the impact on prices and inflation caused by the increase in global oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East. In May, gasoline will be taxed by 10.398 Pesos for a liquid fuel tax and by 0.6377 Pesos due to an environmental tax. The tax on diesel is also going up by 9.269 Pesos due to the liquid fuel taxes, with a rate a 5.019 Pesos in the "Patagonian" regions and a 1.056 Pesos tax for carbon dioxide. In March, the monthly inflation rate in Argentina rose to 3.4%. This was a result of a rise in crude oil price on a global scale. The global oil price reached a four-year peak on Thursday. It was above $126 per barrel amid fears the conflict between Iran and the United States could escalate and cause a long-term disruption of crude oil supplies throughout the Middle East. (Reporting and editing by Sarah Morland; Walter Bianchi)
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Israeli strikes kill four Palestinians, say medics, amid new ceasefire effort
Health officials reported that Israeli strikes had killed four Palestinians on Thursday in the Gaza Strip. Hamas leaders were meeting mediators in Cairo to discuss ways to'reinvigorate' a fragile six-month-old truce brokered by the U.S. Medical personnel?said that an Israeli strike near the Salahudeen Road in central Gaza Strip killed at least three persons, while another struck near a hospital near Deir Al-Balah in further south. The Israeli military has not yet commented on the reports. Israel and Hamas blame each other for violations of the truce. Local medics claim that at least 800 Palestinians were killed since the ceasefire came into effect. Israel claims that militant attacks killed 'four' of its soldiers during the same time period. Hamas told reporters on Thursday that a Hamas delegation had arrived in Cairo just two days before for talks with mediators about the Gaza plan of U.S. president Donald Trump. Sources familiar with the talks stated that?efforts made to force Israel and Hamas to implement a second stage have not been successful. Israel will 'further pull back in the second phase, according to 'the plan. A transitional authority will take control of Gaza in this phase and a multinational force is deployed. Hamas should be disarmed as part of the plan. Gaza's health authorities report that more than 72,500 Palestinians were killed in the Gaza war since it began on October 22, 2023. According to Israeli statistics, Hamas' attacks on Israel in October 2023 - the events that precipitated Gaza war – killed 1,200 Palestinians. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Heavens; Nidal al Mughrabi)
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US growth accelerates in the first quarter
The U.S. economy grew in the first quarter, thanks to a resurgence in government spending following a crippling shutdown. However, the increase is only temporary because the war against Iran will likely drive up gasoline prices while squeezing household budgets. The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product grew?at an annualized rate of 2.0% last quarter. The economy grew at a pace of 0.5% in the quarter October-December, as federal spending contracted by 1.16 percentage points. This was the largest drop since the first quarter 1994. The economists polled had predicted GDP growth to increase at a rate of 2.3% annually. Estimates varied from a contraction of 0.2% to a growth rate of 3.9%. The growth was largely due to a partial reverse in government expenditures. The boom in artificial intelligence and the construction of data centers to support the technology continue to drive business equipment spending. But growth in consumer expenditure, which is the engine of the economy's growth, has slowed even more. Even before the U.S. - Israel war with Iran, it was already losing momentum. Americans are frustrated by the cost of living and disapprove of President Donald Trump's economic management. This is a risk to the Republican Party as it heads into the November congressional midterm elections. Financial markets expect that the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates constant, perhaps until 2027, if the labor market does not deteriorate. The U.S. Central Bank left its overnight benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75 percent on Wednesday, citing 'increasing concerns about inflation. In the first quarter, employment growth averaged 68,000 new jobs per month compared to 20,000 monthly gains during the same time last year. Some economists blamed Trump's immigration and trade policies for the labor market slowdown compared to that of 2023. The weak labor market has dampened wage growth. Tariffs increased the price of certain goods, even though inflation was relatively moderate. Economists say consumers are relying on their savings to maintain spending. They also claim that this cannot continue indefinitely. In 'February, the saving rate was 4%. Economists warn that higher inflation may offset some of the anticipated stimulus from tax reductions. The boost from tax refunds is expected to fade quickly, leading to weaker spending in this year. The war in the Middle East is expected to have a negative impact on the economy from the second quarter. Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Paul Simao & Chizu Nomiyama
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Tax demand has impacted shipments, causing Indian gold imports to fall to a near 30-year-low.
Industry and government sources claim that India's gold imports in April are likely to drop to a low of 15 metric tonnes, a level not seen for 30 years, as banks were allegedly hit with an unexpected tax demand. Surendra Mehta is the secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association. He said that since Indian customs started requiring a 3% integrated good and service?tax? on the metal, the banks have stopped importing it. When India introduced the IGST in 2017, gold-importing banks weren't required to pay the 3% levy. Tax demands are now being made on banks following a delay reported earlier in the month. The order authorizing bullion imports for banks was delayed. "Banks have not cleared any gold through?customs in the last month." "A small amount was cleared via the India International Bullion Exchange" (IIBX), said a government representative who refused to be named because they weren't authorised to speak to the media. India's tax authorities have not responded to a comment request?about the IGST that banks are now requesting on gold imports. India, which is the second largest gold consumer in the world, imported 35 tons in April 2025, and an average of?about 60 tonnes a month during the fiscal year 2025-26 to March. Sources said that the 15-ton April figure is the lowest in around 30 years, except for 2020, when the COVID-19 epidemic forced Indian jewellers to close. This could have an impact on the global gold price. Bank bullion dealers estimate that India spent $1.3 billion on imports of gold in April. This is well below the $6 billion monthly average in the previous fiscal year. And this, despite Indians' celebration of Akshaya Tiritiya on April 19, the second biggest gold-buying festival after Dhanteras. A Mumbai-based dealer of gold bullion at a private banking institution said that the supply banks had brought in gold in anticipation of Akshaya Tiritiya demand, but now it was in vaults. He added that 8 tons of 'gold were parked in vaults. The dealer said that banks will only clear shipments after customs officials have allowed them without requiring?GST. Sources said that India's GST on gold and the earlier delay to authorise banks to import gold could be intended to slow down gold?imports in order to narrow the country's?trade deficit and support its rupee. In April, refiners were hit by the denial or delay of new import licences. Harshad Ajmera is a refiner in the eastern city, Kolkata. Chanda Venkatesh is the managing director of CapsGold in Hyderabad, a bullion dealer based on the south. (Reporting and editing by Mayank Bhadwaj, Alexander Smith and Rajendra Jadhav)
ArcelorMittal expects EU steel imports to remain high
ArcelorMittal’s chief financial officer said that steel imports into the European Union will remain high during the second quarter as buyers rush to get material into the bloc before tighter safety measures are implemented.
GenuinoChristino stated that imports were still high at the beginning of the second quarter, even after they had dipped in the first.
He said that despite the fact that imports were down in the first quarter, evidence indicates?that they are still high at least for the start of quarter 2.
In July, the?EU will implement a new policy that will reduce steel import quotas by half. Christino stated that higher freight rates and shipping times, 'linked to disruptions from the Middle East war' were unlikely to delay arrivals.
The European Steel Association (also known as 'Eurofer') warned in March of an import share of 29% of the EU steel market by?the third-quarter of 2025.
According to LSEG, the Luxembourg-based firm posted a first-quarter 'core earning' of $1.68billion, which was just a little bit higher than analysts' estimates of $1.65billion. (Reporting from Gdansk by Javi Larranaga; editing by Matt Scuffham).
(source: Reuters)