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Sources say that India's Russian oil binge will end in December, as sanctions bite.
India's Russian crude oil imports will be at their lowest level in three years by December. They were already higher than they had been for several months in November as refiners sought alternatives to avoid violating Western sanctions. The United States, Britain and the European Union have all tightened sanctions against Moscow in response to the conflict in Ukraine. Washington's most recent measures target top Russian oil producers Rosneft, and Lukoil. The deadline for buyers of Russian oil to end their dealings with these two companies was November 21. Separately the EU set a deadline of 21 January after which it would refuse fuel from refineries who handled Russian crude in the 60 days following the bill of loading. BANK SCRUTINY LEADS BANK CAUTION One of the sources in the refinery industry said that the recent U.S. sanction has caused Indian refiners to be "extremely careful" after the scrutiny of banks. India will likely receive 600,000 - 650,000 barrels of Russian oil per day by December. Source: These include imports from Indian Oil Corp., Nayara Energy, and the delivery of certain November-loading cargoes to Reliance Industries. The source cited preliminary lifting plans by Indian companies. Kpler's preliminary data showed that India will receive 1,87 million bpd in Russian crude this month. Data from trade sources show that in October, India imported 1.65 millions bpd more Russian oil than it did in September. A trade source said that "Russian supplies are expected to be very high in November, as many refineries have been trying to fill their stocks before the U.S. sanction deadline. This is also due to a rule that will allow oil products to be produced for the EU market using non-Russian crude oil starting 2026." Sources requested anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak with media. MOST INDIAN REFINERS STOP RUSSIAN BUYS The majority of Indian refiners such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp, HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd have stopped purchasing Russian oil. Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petrol Corp., both state-owned companies, have announced that they will only buy from non-sanctioned parties. Nayara Energy, a company owned in part by Rosneft and exclusively processing Russian oil, has been the sole supplier of Russian crude after other suppliers withdrew following British sanctions and EU sanctions. Reliance Industries Ltd. has announced that it had loaded Russian oil cargoes as "precommitted", starting on October 22. It will also process any parcels arriving after November 20, at its refinery, which is designed to produce fuels specifically for the local market. Reliance is the operator of one of the largest refining complexes in the world. It has two refineries, with the first catering to the export market. As refiners took advantage of an arbitrage opportunity, the share of U.S. crude oil in India's imports of oil in October soared to its highest level since June 2024. India is also being urged to buy more U.S. Energy after Washington doubled the tariffs on Indian Imports to 50% citing New Delhi’s purchase of Russian Oil.
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Source: India considers import tariffs on certain steel products
According to a person with direct knowledge, India is considering increasing the import duty on certain steel products, also known locally as a "safeguard duty", to compete against cheaper imports, primarily from China. India, which is the second largest crude steel producer in the world, recommended in August a three-year tariff of 11-12% on certain steel products, as part of its final findings. The Directorate General of Trade Remedies, under the federal ministry of trade, was responsible for this recommendation. The source declined to identify themselves due to the sensitive nature the issue. The Indian Ministry of Finance didn't immediately reply to an email seeking comment. In April, the Indian government imposed a temporary tariff of 12% for 200 days. This expired earlier this month. India's imports of finished steel during the first seven month period of the current financial year fell 34.1% on an annual basis. South Korea, China, Japan, and Russia were the top exporters of finished steel into India in the past year, with 1.4 million tons. Sources said that Chinese steel exports left India "vulnerable" primarily because of the lower prices. The state-backed Steel Association announced late last month that China's output of steel will fall below 1 billion tonnes this year, for the first in six years. This is on track to meet government pledges to reduce production. Beijing announced a plan in late October to reduce the existing steel capacity. This will help to balance supply and demand for a sector that has been plagued by overcapacity. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Neha Arora)
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Indonesian islanders seek justice, plant mangroves as seas rise
Residents of Pari Island sue Swiss Cement Maker Holcim Climate change is blamed for higher temperatures and warmer seas Indonesian coastline is being eroded by mangroves. By Leo Galuh The Women's Group of Pari Island is hoping that mangroves will protect its coastline from rising sea levels, tidal flooding, and stronger waves. Mangroves absorb greenhouse gases, which are harmful to the planet. The sea has changed. "It's hotter and rougher. It scares us," Asmania, a mom of three, said as she dug her hands in the sand below the shallow sea. Pari Island, near Jakarta's capital, is home to only 1,000 people. However, it is the subject of an important court case that has global significance over the effects of climate change on the island's beaches. Asmania (who goes by one name) and three other residents of the island sued Holcim, a Swiss cement company, in 2023. They accused it of failing reduce emissions while their island was repeatedly flooded. According to the Global Cement and Concrete Association, the production of cement contributes approximately 7% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. The court in Zug, the city where Holcim's headquarters is located, has yet to decide whether or not it will hear the case. SINKING ISLAND Indonesia, an archipelago of 81,000 km coastline, is extremely vulnerable to erosion. The sea level has been rising by 4.25 millimetres per year since 1992 and threatens to submerge smaller islands such as Pari. According to the environmental group Indonesian Forum for the Environment, and Swiss Church Aid (a non-profit working on climate justice), who are supporting the lawsuit against Holcim, about 11% of Pari’s 42 hectares have already been lost to the ocean. Asmania believes that Holcim's cement plant in Indonesia has contributed to the rising sea level, even though it hasn't operated since 2019. This is not a matter of distance. "This is global damage caused Holcim's emission," she said. "It is unfair, because we are the ones who suffer from the impact." Asmania arrived on Pari Island for the first time in 2005, when it was a clear, cool sea rich in life that allowed people to grow seaweed and fish. She first noticed the water warming up in 2010. She said that the seawater was cool and bluish green, allowing seaweed to grow at a depth around 30 centimetres. "In 2023, our seaweed harvest failed. "It all melted because of the heat from seawater," Asmania said, showing a seaweed clump with white patches. Sartono, her husband, said that only seven of 400 groupers released in his farm by him in August were still there two months later. According to a study in 2025 published in Frontiers in Marine Science, sea surface temperatures in Indonesian water have been steadily rising since 1982. They are warming by 0.19 degrees Celsius (0.34 F) per decade as a result of climate change. Accountability is a priority The Cantonal Court of Zug conducted a preliminary hearing on September but has not decided whether or not the case will proceed. Its future is uncertain. The case, although it may not affect international law, is indicative of a growing trend where communities are testing corporate accountability beyond borders, according to Glenn Wijaya. A Jakarta-based attorney who specializes in mining, renewable energy, and energy projects. He said that there is a growing momentum in the world whereby people who are affected by climate change, and particularly those companies with major emissions, file lawsuits. A German court in May rejected the appeal of a Peruvian farm against RWE. He accused RWE, Germany's energy company, for putting his home and livelihood at risk due to climate change. It set a precedent, however, by determining that companies are liable for their emissions. Mustaghfirin (53), another plaintiff who uses only one name in the Holcim lawsuit, stated that catching fish in recent years has become more difficult due to unpredictable weather and sea currents. He could catch up to 60 kg per day in the 2000s. Since 2020, his daily catch has been no more than 10kg. Fishermen depend on nature. He said that if we treat the nature well, she will return the favor. Mangroves are a great way to prevent erosion, absorb CO2, and provide a breeding ground for crabs, sea cucumbers, and fish. A report from the World Bank in 2022 states that more than half of Indonesia's total catch is made up of species dependent on mangroves. The report estimated that mangroves are worth between $15,000 and almost $50,000 annually, depending on the amount of carbon they sequester. Indonesia is home to 20 percent of the mangroves in the world. The vegetation, which looks like upside-down tree root, acts as a barrier to waves, a nursery and carbon sink. Over time, sediment trapped in the soil can expand coastal areas and create new land. The roots of the mangrove act as natural barriers that absorb up to 90 percent of wave energy. They hold back sediments that come from seawater and land runoff, stabilizing the coast and preventing erosion, said Fery Kurniawan. He is a lecturer on aquatic resource management in the West Java Province at the Bogor Agricultural Institute. It can be hard for them to thrive. Greenpeace activist Jeanny Sirait in Indonesia said that seedlings need to have a minimum of a third above the water surface for photosynthesis. She said that only five mangroves out of ten are likely to survive because of these natural hazards. Asmania, despite the challenges, said she would continue to restore mangroves on Rengge Beach in an effort to save the Island.
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Market awaits Fed clarification as copper prices rise due to supply concerns
The price of copper rose on Tuesday as traders took into account supply developments, record U.S. stocks and the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for December. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract closed the daytime trading session up 0.65% to 86,600 Yuan ($12206.29) per ton. As of 0754 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange had increased by 0.71% to $10,850 per tonne. Freeport Indonesia announced on Monday that it had reduced its production plans for 2026 at its flagship Grasberg Mine to 478,000 tonnes of copper cathode, from the 700,000 tons previously expected. This was in response to a deadly mudflow in September, which killed seven people. UBS raised its copper price forecast for next year on Friday, citing tighter supply due to mine disruptions including the Grasberg closure, as well as strong long-term demands. Comex stocks of copper have surpassed 400,000 short tonnes for the first. Profitable arbitrage continues to draw metal into the United States. Stockpiling by traders ahead of possible U.S. Tariffs in 2026 is a major reason why inventories are far higher than LME or Shanghai levels. Market caution dominated the overall trading, as traders awaited more clarity about a rate cut from the Fed in December. Analysts at Sucden Financial said that with few macro-cues in a U.S. data schedule and little direction coming from fundamentals there was "little incentive" for prices to move decisively outside of their current ranges. Aluminium, nickel, tin, and zinc were all up, but lead was down. The LME also saw a rise in zinc, which rose by 0.58%. Lead and tin, however, were not much changed. $1 = 7.0947 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Rashmi Dhaniwala and Mrigank Aich)
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Iron ore prices rise on China's plan to reduce port fees
Iron ore futures were up on Tuesday, as the proposed reductions in Chinese port fees should discourage long-term storage. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE) rose 0.51%, to 794 Yuan ($111.90) per metric ton. By 0709 GMT, the benchmark December iron ore contract on Singapore Exchange was up 0.59% at $105.65 per ton. China has proposed lowering port fees for state owned enterprises that hold cargoes less than 30 days. ANZ analysts say this move would discourage long-term inventory stockpiling, accelerate inventory turnover and possibly tighten spot supply during periods when restocking is taking place. Galaxy Futures analysts said that a structural shortage in iron ore fines PB (Pilbara blend) will support steel prices for the short-term, but a rapid drop in domestic demand in the mid-term is likely to have a negative impact on iron ore. China's steel price pressure is likely to continue for the foreseeable, as the winter season slows down demand and inventories of finished steel remain high. This was stated by the China Iron & Steel Association in its most recent monthly report. The mood was also boosted on Tuesday as U.S. president Donald Trump declared that ties with China were "extremely solid" after a phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. This came weeks after a South Korean meeting where they had agreed on a framework of a trade agreement which has not yet been finalised. The DCE also showed mixed results for other steelmaking ingredients, with coking coke and coking coal both up. Mysteel, a consultancy, said that the moderate increases in coke produced by China's Shanxi Province, which is the largest coke producing hub of China, were driven by higher profits from cheaper coal. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have increased. Rebar increased by 0.71%. Hot-rolled coils rose 0.64%. Wire rod increased 0.36%. Stainless steel gained 0.65%.
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Asian stocks rise as US interest rate cuts return to focus
The Asian stock markets rose on Tuesday, as investors bought global technology stocks and shrugged off fears that the sector is becoming overheated. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.75%, led by tech stocks. This was a partial recovery of last week's losses of 4%. The index is set to post its first monthly drop since March. The European futures were down 0.2%, which indicates a soft opening. The yield on 10-year Treasury bills was unchanged at 4,038%. The two-year rate, which increases with traders' expectation of higher Fed Fund rates, was stable at 3,495% during Asian hours, after dropping 2.5 basis point in the previous session. Nikkei, the Japanese stock market index, was only up 0.1% on February 2nd after a good start on its return to trading on Monday. Last week, the index fell 3.5% as markets were gripped by a wave of fear. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong was 0.6% higher Tuesday, while the CSI300 Index in China was 1.1% higher. After Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that available data indicated the U.S. employment market is still weak enough to warrant a further quarter-point reduction in interest rates, it's likely we will see a rate cut. According to CME's FedWatch Tool the markets are now pricing in a 85.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the December meeting. This is up from 42.4% one week ago. The U.S. central bank will be meeting on December 9-10. The dollar has been largely unaffected by the sudden change in bets on rate cuts. After a small overnight gain, the euro bought $1.15125 at its last chance. The dollar index closed at 100.25 on Friday, holding its gains from the previous week when it rose by nearly 1%. Jack Siu is the Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management for Asia at Lombard Odier. He said that it is likely the ECB, the Swiss National Bank, and the BOJ have stopped cutting rates, and "the BOJ will be more dovish even though its next step is going be a hike." The dollar will depreciate from a perspective of interest rate differentials. Siu stated that this rebound is not sustainable. The ongoing dispute between Tokyo and Beijing continues to be in the spotlight. It is over a comment made by Japan's prime minister Sanae Takaichi in November, stating that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would trigger a Japanese response. Takaichi spoke with Donald Trump on Tuesday after his Monday call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. She claimed that Trump had explained U.S. China relations to her. Trump announced on Monday that he will travel to Beijing, China in April. This is at the invitation from the Chinese government. The meeting proposal was seen as another sign that diplomatic and political ties between China and the United States are improving after their truce in their trade war. Marcella Chow is JPMorgan Asset Management’s market strategist. In Asian hours, Nasdaq and S&P futures both eased a little. The U.S. bond and stock markets will close on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday. They will reopen on Friday for a half-day. Brent crude futures fell 0.52% to $63.04 per barrel while U.S. Crude futures dropped 0.48% to $58.56 a barrel. Spot gold remained at $4,141 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul; Scott Murdoch)
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UK development arm makes first, $150 mln push into energy transition financing
British International Investment (BII), the UK's development financing institution, announced Tuesday that it would provide FirstRand in South Africa with a $150-million facility to help African companies reduce carbon emissions. FirstRand’s RMB and FNB business banks will channel the funding to high-emission businesses willing to adopt cleaner technology and lower-carbon practices. Transitional finance loans aim to assist heavy emitters in modifying their operations rather than restricting access to financing. According to the 2025 South African Climate Finance Landscape Study, in 2022-2023, the country raised an average annual amount of 188 billion rands ($10.4 billion). South Africa could require as much as 500 billion rand per year to achieve its climate goals. This would leave a funding gap of more than 300 billion rand. A large portion of the funding allocated today is for power projects, such as wind farms and solar farms. Only a small percentage goes to initiatives that help communities adapt to climate changes or move away from coal. Nearly 60% of funding came from domestic institutions, and commercial banks were the biggest private financiers. Stephen Priestley said, BII's managing director: "This investment is a key step in our strategy of accelerating decarbonisation wherever it matters the most."
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Russell Russell: China can help Asia's diesel market, which is tightening up.
China could help ease the tightness of diesel markets in Asia in December by increasing exports to compensate for lower shipments coming from Indian refiners due to sanctions against Russian crude. According to trading sources the exports of China's diesel could reach 4.5 million barrels by December as refiners make use of high margins to produce this transport fuel. If the December loading cargoes rise to the level expected, this would be the best month since August. It is also a big jump from the forecast of commodity analysts Kpler that November exports will total 2.76 million barrels. China has the second largest oil refinery capacity in the World, but it uses less than 80% at the major state-owned facilities, and even less for smaller independent processors. Exports are also controlled through government quotas. These are more driven by the need to ensure domestic fuel security, than by market forces which allow refiners a higher profit margin when margins increase. China's refiners may still have enough quotas to increase December exports for diesel, jet fuel and other middle-distillate fuels. China has issued quotas for 8,395 millions metric tons of diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline. This brings the total amount for the year up to 40,195 million tons. That's about the same as 41.0 million for 2024. According to data released by the government on November 18, refiners exported 29,91 million tons of these three fuels during the first ten months of this year. The quotas are available for exports of about 10,29 million tonnes of each of the three fuels in November and December. Kpler predicts that November exports for the three products will be approximately 1.58 million tonnes. While this number may increase as more cargoes arrive at the end of the calendar month, it's clear that refiners have enough remaining quotas available to boost December exports. ROBUST FUEL MARK-UPS The refining margins of diesel and gasoline are at their highest levels in two years. Singapore's profit from making a barrel gasoil (the building block of diesel) ended Monday at $24.37, down from the previous close of $25.97, as traders factored in the possibility that Chinese exports could increase next month. The spread reached $31.25 per barrel on 19 November, the highest level since 23 September and up 140% from the lowest point in 2025 at $13.05 on 25 March. Profit margins on a barrel gasoline On Monday, the price was $14.54, up from $14.42. The price of a barrel had reached $17.71 on November 14. This was the highest level since August 29, 2023. It is also almost five times higher than the lowest point in 2025, which was $3.68 on the 21st January. The recent improvement in the refining margins is partly due to the weaker exports of India. According to Kpler, shipments of jet fuel, diesel and gasoline to the South Asian country are expected to fall to 4,34 million tons by November. This will be the lowest level since April, and the lowest so far for 2025, which was 5.54 million tonnes in September. In India, several refiners have been forced to look for alternative crudes in order to replace the Russian oil they were buying at a discount before the latest U.S. sanction on Russian oil companies. India's refiners are likely to find alternative crude oil supplies, so the decline in refined product exports is only likely to be a temporary phenomenon. While there may be a market gap, China appears to be the best-positioned country to benefit from additional gasoline and diesel. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
Gold reaches a new high after Fed comments renew rate-cutting bets
Gold rose on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in over a week. This was despite a strong dollar after Federal Reserve policymakers' dovish remarks revived the prospects of an American rate cut in December.
Gold spot rose 0.1%, to $4,141.49 an ounce, by 0631 GMT. This is the highest price since November 14. It follows a 1.8% increase on Monday.
U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were 1.1% higher, at $4.139.10 an ounce.
Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said that gold prices recovered in the short-term due to expectations of a rate reduction.
Market participants will be watching any data related to demand in the U.S. with more interest, right now, as they want to know if the Fed's concerns about a softening demand, which could be the labor market, retail sales or consumer confidence, are greater than the so-called "sticky inflation situation."
Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated on Monday that the job market was weak enough to warrant a further quarter-point cut in rates for December. However, any action beyond this depends on upcoming data, which has been delayed due to the shutdown of government.
Waller's remarks come after New York Fed president John Williams stated on Friday that U.S. rates of interest could fall "in a near term."
According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors now price in an 81% probability of a rate reduction in December. This is up from 40% last weekend.
Gold that does not yield tends to perform well in an environment of low interest rates.
This week, the Fed will release key economic data that was delayed due to the government shutdown. These include U.S. retail sale, unemployment claims, and producer prices.
Gold priced in dollars has seen gains capped as the dollar held near its six-month-highs from last week.
The price of spot silver was unchanged at $51.43 an ounce. Platinum rose by 0.7% to 1,553.65, while palladium increased by 0.3% to 1,399.96. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Ronojoy Mazumdar, and Ishaan arora)
(source: Reuters)