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IAEA: In the event of peace in Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant needs a cooperation agreement
Rafael Grossi, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that a peace agreement would require a special status for Zaporizhzhia and an agreement on cooperation between Russia and Ukraine. In the first few weeks of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces captured the plant, Europe’s largest with its six reactors. Although the plant does not produce electricity, both sides accuse each other of military action that compromises nuclear safety. He said that "whatever the outcome, you'll need to have a collaborative arrangement or a co-operative atmosphere." Grossi's remarks come at a time when the Trump administration is making a new, intense push to end war. U.S. officials and Ukrainian officials try to close the gap between them on a draft plan of peace that includes provisions regarding Zaporizhzhia’s future. Grossi warned that a nuclear disaster is possible without peace. In an interview, he stated that "until the war ends or there is ceasefire, or the guns have been silenced, something could go very, very badly." "No operator can operate a nuclear plant if across the river is another country that is resisting and could take action." According to a draft of the U.S. backed 28-point plan for Ukraine seen by, it proposes restarting the nuclear plant under IAEA oversight, with the electricity output being split equally between Russia, and Ukraine. Grossi stated that Ukraine and Russia would decide at some point whether the plant was to be shared or not. "But it is obvious that the IAEA will be indispensable in this situation." Since 2022, the six reactors in Zaporizhzhia have been cold-shutdown. They rely on external powerlines and emergency systems to avoid a blackout. IAEA continues to maintain a presence on the site in order to monitor safety despite ongoing shelling. (Reporting and editing by Ros Russell. Karen Lema)
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Stocks gain from Fed cuts; dollar stable
Investors piled into technology stocks on Tuesday, despite concerns that the sector was overheating. Investors believe that the AI-fueled tech boom will continue. MSCI's All-World Index rose for a 3rd day, lifting it off the two-month-lows of last week. Shares in Europe increased by 0.2%, and U.S. Stock Index Futures were either unchanged or slightly higher, after Monday's rally. RATE CUTTING BETS - RISING RATE The yield on 10-year Treasury Notes dropped nearly one basis point to 4.03%. Two-year yields, which are usually in line with traders’ expectations of lower Fed Fund rates, were stable at 3.49% in Europe after dropping 2.5 basis in the previous session. After Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated on Monday that data available indicated that the U.S. employment market was still weak enough to warrant a further quarter-point reduction, the prospect of an interest rate cut in the United States is increasing. His comments followed those made by New York Fed president John Williams who said late Friday night that a rate cut could be possible in December. According to CME's FedWatch Tool the markets are now pricing in an 81% chance that a quarter point cut will be made next month. This is up from 42.4% one week ago. The U.S. Central Bank meets on December 9-10. Investors will have the opportunity to review delayed data about retail sales, wholesale prices, consumer confidence and home prices on Tuesday. However, these numbers may not be significant in determining what the Fed does next month. Dollar's impact has been limited by the recent shift in expectations regarding interest rates. The dollar has gained this month against all major currencies except for the offshore Chinese Yuan, which is up around 0.5%. This suggests to me that the FX markets remain in a mindset to trade on growth differentials above anything else. With the U.S. Economy outperforming its peers and likely to continue to do so until 2026, it bodes well moving forward," Pepperstone Senior Research Strategist Michael Brown said. Tensions over Japan The dollar is gaining against the Japanese yen. It's at its lowest level in 10 months, and officials in Tokyo are worried about intervening to help it. The dollar fell 0.3% in the last hour of trading at 156.43 after gaining 1.6% during November. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1528. The ongoing dispute between Tokyo and Beijing is adding to the tensions around Japanese markets. This was over comments made by Japan's prime minister Sanae Takaichi in November, stating that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would trigger a Japanese response. Takaichi spoke with Donald Trump on Tuesday after his Monday call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. She claimed that Trump had explained U.S. China relations to her. Trump announced on Monday that he will travel to Beijing in early April. This was interpreted as another sign of the improvement in diplomatic and political ties between China and the United States following their truce with respect to trade. The U.S. bond and stock markets will close on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday. They will reopen on Friday for a half-day. ALPHABET HEADS FOR $4 TRILLION Alphabet's shares rose another 4% during premarket trading following a report by The Information that Facebook parent Meta was in talks with the company about using its AI chips in data centres starting in 2027, and renting chips for next year. Brent crude futures dropped 0.4% to $63.14 per barrel on concerns that global supplies could increase significantly relative to demand in the next year. Gold fell 0.1%, to $4,135 per ounce. However, it was still on track for a gain of nearly 3% in November. (Reporting and editing by Scott Murdoch, Amanda Cooper and Frances Kerry.
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Gold drops from more than one-week highs ahead of delayed US data
The dollar held steady on Tuesday as gold prices fell from a peak of over a week. Investors waited for delayed U.S. data that may help refine expectations about future Federal Reserve rate reductions. After a surge of more than 2% the previous session, spot gold fell 0.2%, to $4,130.51 an ounce, by 1140 GMT. Prices had risen to their highest levels since November 14 earlier in the day. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were 0.8% higher, at $4.127.40 an ounce. The dollar hovered near last week's six-month high. This tempered bullion's gains as a stronger dollar makes gold more costly for holders of other currencies. Nitesh Sha, commodities strategist at WisdomTree, said: "We have seen a broad rise across all assets. This is partly due to the markets reassessing when the Fed will cut rates next. The shutdown has delayed the release of new data, which is adding to the volatility. However, the fragility of the market itself continues to be in gold's favor. Even today's correction looks like a normal correction after the prices rose too quickly." Later in the day, the U.S. releases retail sales data and producer price data. The shutdown delayed both datasets. Investors are expecting to get a better understanding of the Fed rate path. CME data shows that the markets are pricing in an 81% probability of a rate cut for December and an 86% chance of one for January. On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that the labor market has softened to the point where another quarter-point reduction in December is justified. However, further steps will depend on the data. John Williams, the New York Fed president, had said that rates may fall "in a near-term." Low interest rates are a good thing for non-yielding gold. Shah said that a dollar with a structurally weaker structure could push gold to $4,700 in 2026. Palladium fell 0.1%, to $1,394.32, while platinum was unchanged at $1,543.59. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Sherin Elizabeth Varighese from Bengaluru)
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Kpler data indicates that India's November Russian crude oil imports are set to reach a five-month high.
India's oil exports to Russia are expected to reach their highest level for five months in November, according to preliminary data from Kpler, as refiners scrambled to secure barrels before a U.S. date to stop transactions with Russian oil producers sanctioned by the United States. India, which is the third largest oil importer in the world, was the biggest purchaser of discounted Russian crude shipped by sea after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. According to the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit South Asia next month. His last visit was in December of 2021, just a few months after he ordered troops to Ukraine. The United States, Britain and the European Union have all tightened sanctions against Moscow in response to the war. Washington's most recent measures target the two biggest oil producers of the country, Rosneft, and Lukoil. The deadline for buyers of Russian oil to end their dealings with two companies was November 21. RUSSIAN OIL IMPORTS WILL RISE BEFORE DRIVING DOWN IN DECEMBER According to preliminary data from the ship tracking agency Kpler India's oil purchases are expected to increase to 1.855 millions bpd from 1.48million bpd last month, defying many predictions of a drop in light of the new sanctions imposed against Rosneft, and Lukoil. This would be its highest level since July, when it imported 1,52 million bpd. A trade source stated that "Russian supplies are expected to be very high in November, as many refineries have been trying to fill their stocks before the U.S. sanction deadline. This is also due to a rule that will allow oil products to be produced for the EU market using non-Russian crude oil starting 2026." On condition of anonymity, they did not have the right to speak with the media, sources in the trade and refining industry said that imports fell to their lowest level in at least three year in December as refiners turned to alternative methods to avoid violating Western sanctions. Separately the EU set a deadline of 21 January after which it would refuse fuel from refineries who handled Russian crude in the 60 days following the bill of loading. One of the sources in the refinery industry said that the recent U.S. sanction has caused Indian state refiners to be "extremely careful" as a result of bank scrutiny. India will likely receive 600,000 to 650 000 barrels of Russian oil per day by December. Source: These include imports from Indian Oil Corp., Nayara Energy, and the delivery of certain November-loading shipments for Reliance Industries. The source cited preliminary lifting plans by Indian companies. MOST INDIAN REFINERS STOP RUSSIAN BUYS The majority of Indian refiners such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp, HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd have stopped purchasing Russian oil. Reliance Industries Ltd. has announced that it will be processing any cargoes arriving after November 20, and have already loaded Russian oil "precommitted".
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Energy Minister: Three companies are vying to acquire assets from Lukoil in Romania
The Energy Minister of Romania, Bogdan Ivan, said that three companies are interested in purchasing the Romanian assets owned by Russian Lukoil. They have been negotiating with the company directly. Lukoil operates 320 petrol stations across Romania. It is the third-largest refinery in the country and has offshore exploration rights to a part of the Black Sea. Ivan, a journalist for the online publication profit.ro, was quoted by the publication as saying: "At this moment, three companies have expressed an interest in acquiring Lukoil Romanian assets - both the refinery, and the petrol stations. They are currently negotiating with the holding." "We were notified about a private company deal a few months ago. We are in touch, and it is our interest that the transaction be completed as quickly as possible." Romania is working on a bill that would allow it to temporarily control assets in the event of a crisis. The refinery has been shut down to perform maintenance and officials in Romania have stated that the European Union state is well-stocked to ensure the fuel supply on the market will not be affected. Petrotel, a Lukoil refinery in Romania, accounts for about one-quarter of the Romanian market. (Reporting and editing by Kirsten Doovan; Luiza Ilie)
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US to close rare earths gap; others less so
The U.S. will be able to wean itself off Chinese rare Earths thanks to a multi-billion dollar pipeline, but it falls short of breaking Beijing’s grip on the sector in most other countries. According to an analysis of data from the International Energy Agency, China will still be supplying roughly 60% of all rare earths used in magnet manufacturing by 2030. The U.S., on the other hand, is on track to meet 95% of their own demand with domestic sources. These projections are based on the assumption that today's pipe is constructed and scaled according to schedule. Experts point out the long time needed to build mines and refineries as well as the difficulty in finding equipment and skilled workers outside of China. The IEA's estimates also focus on only four of the seventeen rare earth elements. China will continue to dominate the processing of heavy rare Earths, which is a small but important subgroup of elements. The West, as a group, will still be reliant on China in 2030 for 91%. Neha Mukherjee is the research manager for Benchmark Minerals. She said, "By 2030 we will be in trouble." It's just that if these projects are brought online, then we would be less in trouble than we are now.
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Outflows into U.S. stocks support copper prices
The copper price rose to its highest level in over a week Tuesday, boosted by the ongoing withdrawals from U.S. stocks, but weaker prospects for demand from China, a major metals consumer, capped gains. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.6% to $10,833.50 per metric tonne by 0948 GMT, after reaching $10,884.50. This was its highest level since November 14. Copper stocks at the LME registered warehouses The Comex Copper stocks have fallen 42% this year. After hitting a new record in recent days, the continues to rise. The premium for the LME Cash Copper Contract over the 3-month forward was a result of this activity. On Monday, the price of a ton rose to $25. This was its highest level since mid-October. The premium last stood at $10 on February. Commodity Market Analytics' managing director Dan Smith said that there is a continuing squeeze caused by the outflow of Comex copper stock as people worry about potential U.S. tariffs. This is causing an artificial tightening, which has led LME copper to act in its own way. Smith said that the weak fixed-asset investments data for China between January and October could indicate a broader economic slowdown, which would add pressure to industrial metal prices next month. The Yangshan premium The, a measure of Chinese demand for copper, dropped 6% on Monday and fell back to its four-month-low, which was reached a week earlier. The LME copper benchmark broke above the resistance of the 21-day moving median, which now supports the price at $10,828. Metal, which is used for power and construction, reached a record of $11,200 a tonne less than a week ago, due to concerns about a tighter supply of copper from the Grasberg Mine in Indonesia in this year and next. Aluminium and zinc, two other LME metals rose by 0.1% each to $2,812.50 per ton and to $3,002.50. Lead dropped 0.1% to $1982, tin rose 0.2% at $37,385 while nickel fell 0.2% at $14,670. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens; Polina Devtt)
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Report: Serbia's NIS refinery ceases operations due to U.S. sanctions
The NOVA.RS TV in Belgrade reported that the operations at Serbia's Russian owned NIS oil refinery had ceased due to a shortage of crude oil. This is the latest indication that U.S. sanction on the project may threaten fuel supplies throughout the Balkan nation. NIS officials and the Serbian government declined comment. In January, the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Treasury Department placed sanctions on Russia’s oil sector, including NIS. NIS is owned in majority by Russia’s Gazprom and Gazprom. US repeatedly granted NIS waivers until the sanctions came into force in October. The banks then stopped processing NIS and Croatia's JANAF JANF.ZA The pipeline has halted crude oil deliveries to refineries. Serbia has scrambled to find alternative fuels for the winter since then. Serbian government said on Monday that it has sufficient fuel Reserves to supply the domestic markets. NOVA reported that on Tuesday the refinery stopped working due to a shortage of crude oil. This means it won't be able produce any more gasoline, jet fuel, or diesel. The news was confirmed by a refinery source. NOVA and a source confirmed that the refinery has fuel in storage. Dugravka Djedovic Handanovic, the energy minister, said that NIS reserves, including all reserves held with NIS, totaled 89,825 tons of diesel, and 53,648 tonnes of gasoline. She said that the government approved the importation of 38,000 tons of petrol and 66,000 tonnes of diesel to be stored in state reserves. Gazprom holds 44.9% and Gazprom GAZP.MM 11,3% of NIS. Serbia holds 29.9% of NIS, and the rest is held by small investors. Washington wants NIS to divest of all Russian assets and has given its owners three months in which to find a buyer for the Russian stake.
China's net gold imports through Hong Kong in October fell by 64% compared to September
Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department figures released on Tuesday show that China's net imports of gold via Hong Kong fell by 64% in October compared to September.
Why it's important
China is the largest gold buyer in the world. Its buying activities can have a significant impact on global gold markets.
Hong Kong's data might not be a complete view of Chinese gold purchases as it is also imported through Shanghai and Beijing.
By the Numbers
The net imports from Hong Kong into China in October were 8.02 metric tonnes, down from 22.047 tons for September.
China's total imports of gold via Hong Kong fell 17% to 30.08 tonnes in October from 36.275 tonnes in September.
KEY QUOTE
Ross Norman, a independent analyst, said: "What we are really seeing is a weakening in Chinese demand. They were firmly strong in the early part of the year."
The local market is likely meeting domestic demand. The market is able to take care of itself in a certain way.
CONTEXT
Bullion was in China last week
Last month, the demand for gold in China was low. Discounts of $48 to $60 an ounce were offered as incentives.
Data released last week showed that Swiss gold exports in China fell 93%, to 2.1 tonnes, as high prices impacted Chinese demand.
Beijing cut the value-added taxes on certain gold purchases through the Shanghai Gold Exchange or the Shanghai Futures Exchange. This move is expected to increase the cost of gold used for jewellery and industrial purposes.
China's central banks added to their gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month in October. At the end of the month, the bank's gold reserves increased from 74.06 to 74.09 fine troy-ounces.
The spot gold price hit a new record of $4,381.21/oz in October, driven by geopolitical concerns, economic concerns and the de-dollarization. Reporting by Noel John, Bengaluru Editing Mark Potter
(source: Reuters)