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Iron ore continues to fall due to a weaker China demand. Set for a second weekly gain
The price of iron ore futures fell on Friday, for the second consecutive session. This was due to signs of weaker demand in China and shrinking margins within the steel industry. The day-trade price of the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 0.85.5 yuan (110.43 dollars) per metric ton, down 0.32%. As of 0657 GMT, the benchmark December iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down by 0.1% to $103.85 per ton. The average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous week, reaching 2.36 million tonnes on November 20. According to Mysteel, the steel margins have continued to shrink. Only a little over one-third (or a third) of steel mills are operating at a loss, as opposed to nearly a quarter a month ago. Both benchmarks have gained 1% this week, but both were set to gain a second consecutive weekly. Prices of seaborne iron ore The average price has remained well above $100 in November, despite expectations that it would be between $90-95. According to a report on Wednesday, long-running negotiations between China's iron ore buyer, the state, and BHP, have reduced availability of iron ore. This has led to lower prices, despite a decline in demand for this key ingredient. Exclusively reported, the state-run buyer of iron ore has ordered steel mills to stop buying a specific type of BHP ore. This ban is in addition to another one already in place, and escalates a dispute about a new contract. Coke and other steelmaking materials, such as coking coal, fell by 1.82% and 1.31 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed. Rebar was up by 0.07%; hot-rolled coil was unchanged; wire rod gained 0.36%, and stainless steel fell 0.16%. (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson, Rashmi aich)
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Gold set to fall this week as US jobs data dents rate-cutting hopes
Gold slipped on Friday and was heading for a weekly drop, as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would refrain from cutting interest rates at its December meeting. As of 0643 GMT, spot gold dropped 0.9% to $4.039.86 an ounce. Bullion prices have fallen 1% in the last week. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 0.6% to $4.035.60 an ounce. GoldSilver Central MD Brian Lan stated that "gold prices are currently consolidating and we can see the dollar strengthening quite a bit. Behind it, a lot is speculated about whether or not the Fed will cut interest rates further." "I think the market is uncertain, and we expect that traders will take profit from their positions as we approach the end December. That's what we have seen at the end last week and this week." On Friday, the dollar was set to have its best week in over a month. Gold priced in greenbacks becomes more expensive for those who hold other currencies. The U.S. Labor Department's closely-watched report was delayed due to the shutdown of the federal government. It showed that nonfarm payrolls in September increased by 119,000. This is more than twice the expected increase of 50,000. The traders now expect a Fed rate reduction next month. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to perform well in low interest rate environments. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated on Thursday that he was "uneasy' about the frontloading of rate cuts. This is especially true as the Fed's goal to achieve 2% inflation seems to be stalling and going the wrong direction. The physical gold market in major Asian markets has remained low this week due to the volatility of rates. This deterred buyers from purchasing. Silver spot fell 2.2%, to $49.48 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.4%, to $1.505.96. Palladium dropped 1.4%, to $1.358.15. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jac-Phillips, Rashmi Aich and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru)
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Stocks fall as US jobs do not provide clarity on Fed outlook. Tech is also hammered
Investors dumped risk assets despite Nvidia's stellar earnings. The European markets are expecting a lower opening, with the EURO STOXX futures down by 1.4% and FTSE Futures off by 1%. In Asia, Wall Street futures rose 0.2%. U.S. stock markets fell on fears over high tech stock prices, despite Nvidia’s stellar predictions. This led to the Nasdaq’s largest one-day movement since April 9, when Trump’s tariffs scared the markets. The data showed that the U.S. added more jobs in September than was expected, but the Federal Reserve will be faced with a difficult decision next month when it decides on its interest rate. Treasury yields dropped as futures moved up to indicate a 40% likelihood of a U.S. interest rate cut in December. This is an increase from 30% the day before. However, with the next jobs data only being available after the Fed's meeting, investors weren't convinced that the Fed would ease next month. The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 2.2% on Friday to reach a weekly loss of 3.5%. This is the largest since early April. Japan's Nikkei dropped 2.2%, and was down by 3.3% for the entire week. Taiwan's stock market fell 3.4%, while South Korea's plunged 3.7%. Chinese shares were also hit hard, with both the CSI 300 index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index down 1.5%. Diana Mousina is the deputy chief economist of AMP. She said: "There's no doubt that there are bubble-like characteristics in the U.S. technology sector... but that doesn't mean prices will have to burst." "The bubble may just deflate slightly." The government shutdown has ended, and Trump and his team have made more concessions, and he is imposing tariffs. U.S. stocks usually do well in November and December due to seasonality. (So) the shares should end the year better." Fed officials adopted a cautious tone overnight regarding inflation. Some expressed concerns over the stability of financial markets, such as the possibility for a sharp fall in asset prices. They also debated whether or not to reduce interest rates further. Beth Hammack, the Cleveland Fed president, warned that further rate cuts could have a variety of negative effects on the economy. Fed Governor Lisa Cook warned of the risk of asset prices falling by a large amount. JAPAN UNVEILS STIMULUS PACKAGE Sanae Takaichi was the leader of Japan's cabinet on Friday. She approved her first major initiative as prime minister, a package worth 21.3 trillion yen (135.5 billion dollars) to stimulate the economy. The Japanese yen was at 157.24 to the dollar, just above its 10-month low, as a result of growing concerns about fiscal expansion. The rapid depreciation of the Japanese yen - down by 6% in this quarter – has increased the risk that a government intervention is imminent. Bond investors breathed relief when Takaichi announced that the overall JGB issue is expected to be lower than last year. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bond fell by 3 basis points, to 1.785%. This is a decrease from the 17-year high of 1.835%. Data showed that Japan's core consumer price index rose by 3% in October. This has kept expectations alive for a rate hike to come. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank will discuss the "feasibility" and timing of a rate increase in future meetings. Min Joo Kang is a senior economist with ING. She said, "If the Japanese yen continues to be weak, and upcoming data confirms both economic recovery as well as increasing inflation, then we believe the BOJ will take action, basing their decision on data, and remaining independent from political influences." Treasuries stabilized after overnight gains. The yield on two-year Treasury bonds was unchanged at 3.545% after falling 4 basis points overnight. Meanwhile, the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond was little changed at 4.09222%, after dropping 3 bps during U.S. market hours. The U.S. Government pushed Ukraine to accept a peace deal with Russia. Oil prices continued their downward trend on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude dropped 1.2% to $58,29, and has been down 3% for the week. Overnight, spot gold prices dropped by 0.5% to $4.055 an ounce.
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Andy Home: Aluminum scrap is the new front in the war on critical minerals.
The competition for essential minerals has now reached the lowest part of the metal supply chain. Maros SEFCIOVIC, EU Trade chief, says that aluminium scrap is a strategic commodity. Over a million tons of aluminium scrap is exported from the EU every year. Sefcovic, the European Commission's Director of Communications and Public Affairs, described this as "a measure that is balanced" in order to keep more recyclable materials in Europe. The industry association European Aluminium blames the United States for the price differential created by the country's import duties, which is causing more European scraps to be exported to the U.S. The Aluminum Association, a U.S. trade group, is also concerned about the leakage of scrap metal. However, it is blaming China and calling for "smart export controls." The global scrap war has begun. A STRATEGIC PRODUCT Scrap metal is of strategic importance to European policymakers, as it lies at the core of the industrial policy for the EU, and represents the intersection where circularity intersects with decarbonisation, strategic autonomy, and the convergence between the three. Europe has set an ambitious target to recycle 25% of its critical mineral demand by 2030. Aluminum is already available. Metal is infinitely recyclable, and remelting only requires five percent the energy required to produce virgin metal. This means that carbon footprints are much smaller. Scrap has become a more important feedstock in recent years, as the high energy costs have forced many aluminium smelters to close. The annual primary aluminum production in the region has dropped by a quarter over the past five years. European Aluminium estimates that around 15% of recycling furnaces in the EU are idle due to lack of feed. The exemption for aluminum scrap from U.S. tariffs on imports of primary metals and semi-manufactured goods was doubled by U.S. president Donald Trump to 50% in June. The association warns that the arbitrage window created by the U.S. President Donald Trump in June is increasing Europe's scrap leakage. The U.S. import data through July shows that shipments to the U.S. have increased, but only from a low base. Mexico and Canada are the two largest scrap suppliers to the U.S., with 53% and 30% of total imports. There is no doubt about the trend. Consultancy Project Blue calculated that European exports to non-EU countries of scrap aluminium rose at an average compound growth rate of 8,9% between 2018-2024. A GRADED Question It depends on the type of scrap you're using. Due to declining domestic recycling and dismantling capacity, Europe and the United States export low-grade end-of life scrap. China and India are the two biggest buyers of raw materials. However, China's crackdown in 2020 on low-grade imports created a loop whereby scrap is upgraded and then sent to Chinese recyclers. The European Commission's promise of no blanket export ban acknowledges that Europe is currently unable to process all grades of aluminum scrap that it produces. The names "Zorba", "Twitch", and other exotic scrap words like these may sound exotic, but they are nothing more than bales of mixed, shredded material that is usually from vehicles at the end of their lifecycle. It is difficult and costly to process them, which is why they are traded with countries that recycle them. Aluminum Association calls for immediate bans on exports of high-purity scrap, such as beverage cans. The United States has a constant trade deficit of one million tons of aluminium scrap with the rest the world. India is the largest recipient of U.S. scrap aluminium, followed by Thailand, Malaysia and China. CHINA SHIFTS ITS PIVOT TO SCRAP China is a major competitor of the West in the race to obtain critical minerals, and the same is true for aluminium scrap. China's recyclable aluminum imports have been increasing at a rapid pace since the ban on "foreign waste" in 2020 was quickly reversed, under pressure from China’s recycling industry. The Chinese demand for aluminum scrap will continue to increase in the future. China's primary smelter industry is operating at close to Beijing mandated capacity limits, which means more scrap must be recycled. The official goal is to increase the aluminium recycling capacity in 2027 to 15 million tonnes per year. This will create a large potential market for recyclable materials from around the world. Both Europeans and Americans are at risk because China is preparing to dominate the secondary aluminum sector, just as it already has done in the primary. Where there's mudk, there's brass (and aluminum) The rise of scrap protectionism is a sign of how important metals recycling in the West has become. Recycling is a great way to reduce the West's dependence on imports. On both sides of Atlantic, it seems inevitable that some type of export restriction will apply to certain types of aluminum scrap. The Aluminum Association admits that part of the solution for the West is to make the public aware of the value of scrap. The United States will still have one of the lowest recycling rates for aluminium beverage cans in 2023. This is compared to a global average of 75%. This is a lot high-quality metal ready for milling that's being thrown out. The need for trade measures is inevitable, but the solution to scrap availability may be closer to home. Andy Home is a journalist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on finance and markets. Follow ROI on LinkedIn (opens new tab) and X (opens new tab). (Editing by PhilippaFletcher)
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Cryptocurrencies are swept by the flight from risk
The crypto currencies were caught up in the broad flight away from risk assets, which sent bitcoin and ether down to their lowest levels for several months as concerns about high tech valuations persisted and bets made on Federal Reserve policy easing near-term faded. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency in the world, dropped 2.1% and broke below $86,000, hitting a seven-month low of $85,350.75 during Asian trading. Ether fell more than 2%, to $2,777.39 its lowest level in four months. Both tokens faced weekly losses of approximately 8%. Investors often use cryptocurrency as a barometer to gauge their risk appetite. The sharp decline in price shows just how fragile the market's mood has become in recent days. High-flying AI stocks have plummeted and volatility is on the rise. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said that the drop in bitcoin could be a sign of a general risk sentiment. According to CoinGecko, the market tracking service, the value of all cryptos has dropped by $1.2 trillion in the last six weeks. The prices of Hong Kong listed spot bitcoin ETFs, launched by China AMC Harvest and Bosera, fell almost 7% on each Friday. Fall from Grace Bitcoin's fall has been rapid and hard after a spectacular run in this year, which propelled it to an all-time high of over $120,000 in October. This was boosted by favorable regulatory changes around the world towards crypto assets. Analysts claim that the market is still scarred from a crypto crash of record proportions last month. This saw more than 19 billion dollars liquidated across leveraged positions, as panic sales and low liquidity caused sharp swings. Sycamore said, "The market is feeling a little dislocated and a lot fractured since the selloff. Bitcoin has now lost all of its gains for the year and is down by 8%, while Ether has fallen close to 16%. The crypto selloff also has hurt the share prices of stockpilers. This follows a boom of public digital asset treasury firms this year, as corporations took advantage of rising prices and bought cryptocurrencies to hold on their balance sheet. Shares of Strategy have dropped 11% in the past week, and they are now at a one-year low. Metaplanet, its Japanese counterpart, has fallen about 80% since a peak in June. CryptoQuant, a digital asset research company, said in its weekly crypto report published on Wednesday that "Bitcoin markets are at their most bearish since the bull cycle began in January 2023." We are likely to have seen the majority of this cycle's wave of demand pass." Reporting by Rae Wee, Editing by Kevin Buckland
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French and Benelux stocks - Factors to watch on 21 Nov
Here are some company news and stories that could impact the markets in France and Benelux or specific stocks. ABIONYX SA: The biotech company Abionyx Pharma has announced a global strategic partnership exclusively with Sebia. This partnership will transform sepsis diagnostics and validate new test for early sepsis detection. Financial terms and milestones remain confidential. Boiron SA, a homeopathic drug manufacturer, announced that Thierry Boiron will step down from his position as Deputy CEO on December 31, 2025. EIFFAGE SA. French construction company Eiffage has won a second contract for the construction of infrastructure at the Madrid street circuit, Spain. The contract is valued at 68 millions euros. GENFIT SA. Biopharmaceutical firm Genfit has announced that its American Depositary Shares will be delisted from the Nasdaq stock market. The delisting is effective before the opening of trading in November 2025. Imerys SA, a specialty minerals company, successfully placed 600 millions euros in senior unsecured bond with a maturity of 7 years and a fixed coupon rate of 4.00%. Settlement is scheduled for November 21, 2025. The company completed a cash-tender offer for its bonds due in 2027. MAUNA KEA TECHNOLOGIES S.A.: Mauna Kea Technologies, a medical device company in China, received regulatory approval from the NMPA for its next-generation Cellvizio Gen 3 Platform. The company is evaluating commercialization options in China. Financial Times reported that French telecom companies were considering a larger bid for billionaire Patrick Drahi's assets. The Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against Bristol Myers Squibb BMY.N, and Sanofi SASY.PA, accusing them of failing to disclose the fact that Plavix (used to prevent blood clots) does not work for many patients. Bristol Myers, Sanofi and other companies have issued a statement stating that they will vigorously fight Paxton's suit. Tarkett SA, a flooring and sports surface manufacturer, announced that it would reopen the public buyout after a court in Paris dismissed an annulment request against the AMF's decision. UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP: Universal Music Group and Universal Music Publishing Group signed AI licensing agreements with Klay. Sony Music Entertainment, Sony Music Publishing Group Warner Music Group and Warner Chappell Music also signed deals. Pan-European market data: European Equities speed guide................... FTSE Eurotop 300 index.............................. DJ STOXX index...................................... Top 10 STOXX sectors........................... Top 10 EUROSTOXX sectors...................... Top 10 Eurotop 300 sectors..................... Top 25 European pct gainers....................... Top 25 European pct losers........................ Main stock markets: Dow Jones ............... Wall Street Report ..... Nikkei 225............. Tokyo report............ London report ........... Xetra DAX............. Frankfurt items......... CAC-40................. Paris items............ World Indices..................................... Survey of global bourse outlook ......... European Asset Allocation........................ News in a glance Top News ............. Equities.............. Main Oil Report ...........
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Three-alarm fire, as the tech selloff continues and Takaichi stimuli lands
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the day will bring for the European and Global markets. It seems that Nvidia's profits could only smother a fire on the markets for a limited time. Investor confidence is still in ruins after the stock markets tumbled again on Thursday following a new sell-off of tech shares on Wall Street. Investors are alerted on Friday following the explicit threat from Japanese Finance Minister Satsukikatayama, that an intervention in the FX market could be imminent. This was before the announcement of the lavish $135 billion stimulus package from the Takaichi government, which smashed Japanese government bonds and the Japanese yen. Data released by the Bank of Japan on Friday revealed that core inflation in October increased 3.0% compared to a year ago, well above the central banks' 2% target. The yen rose 0.2% to 157.19yen against the dollar on the back of the intervention talks and investor demand for safety havens. Meanwhile, the Nikkei dropped 2.4% to bring its weekly loss to 3.5%. The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan, which is the broadest of the three MSCI indices, fell 2.5% and its weekly loss reached 3.7%. This was the largest drop since the Liberation Day tariff crisis in early April. Early trading in Europe is expected to see the European markets join the selloff. Euro Stoxx futures for the entire region and German DAX were both down 1.4% each, while FTSE futures dropped 1%. Oil prices dropped for the third session in a row on commodities markets amid hopes of a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude dropped 1.3% to $62.54 a barrel. Gold traded 0.7% lower, at $4.059.27 an ounce. In yet another sign of dismay, a fire broke at the venue that hosted the COP30 Summit in Brazil. It disrupted talks and triggered an evacuation, just as negotiators hunkered down to try and land a deal for strengthening international climate efforts. The U.S. Stock Futures were showing some signs of a recovery, but they are still well below their recent highs. S&P 500 futures e-mini were up last by 0.4%. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. Economic Data UK Flash PMI: November, UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex-Banks and Retail Sales for October France's Business Climate Manufacturing and HCOB flash PMI for November Germany: HCOB flash PMI for November Euro zone: Flash PMI from HCOB for November Debt auctions: UK government debt: 1 month, 3 months and 6 months
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Gold set to fall this week as US jobs data dents rate-cutting hopes
Gold slipped on Friday and was heading for a weekly fall, as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would refrain from cutting interest rates at its December meeting. As of 0436 GMT, spot gold dropped 0.6%, to $4,052.58 an ounce. Bullion prices have fallen 0.7% in the past week. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery edged down 0.2% to $4,050.30 an ounce. GoldSilver Central MD Brian Lan stated that "gold prices are currently consolidating and we can see the dollar strengthening quite a bit. Behind it, there's a lot speculation about whether or not the Fed will keep cutting interest rates." "I think the market is uncertain, and we expect that traders will take profit from their positions as we approach the end December. That's what we have seen at the end last week and this week." On Friday, the dollar was set to have its best week in over a month. Gold priced in greenbacks becomes more expensive to holders of other currencies when the dollar is stronger. The U.S. Labor Department's closely-watched report was delayed due to the shutdown of the federal government. It showed that nonfarm payrolls in September increased by 119,000. This is more than twice the expected increase of 50,000. The traders now expect a Fed rate reduction next month. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to perform well in low interest rate environments. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated on Thursday that he was "uneasy' about the frontloading of rate cuts. This is especially true as the Fed's goal to achieve 2% inflation seems to be stalling and going the wrong direction. The physical gold market in major Asian markets has remained low this week due to the volatility of rates. This deterred buyers from purchasing. Silver spot fell 1.8%, to $49.69 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.5%, to $1.502.80. Palladium fell 1.4%, to $1.358.06 (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jac-Phillips, Rashmi Aich, and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru)
Copper prices fall on firm dollar, as traders evaluate US employment data
Copper fell on Friday, and it was likely to be a loss for the week, as investors were cautious before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, and China's low demand added further pressure.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract closed the daytime trade down 0.83% at 85,660 Yuan ($12,042.74) per metric ton. This marked a weekly decline of 1.43%.
The benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange fell 0.62%, to $10,671.5 per ton. It is expected to finish the week with a loss of 1.71%.
The September job data on Thursday, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, offered mixed signals to the Fed, with policymakers pondering the December rate decision, showing stronger-than-expected growth in new hiring but a rise in the jobless rate to a near four-year high.
The September delayed data will be last official employment data before December's interest rate decision.
The dollar remained strong, as Fed officials remained hawkish. This weighed on commodities that were traded in greenbacks by making them costlier for investors who used other currencies.
Prices are still high this year, and demand is weak from China.
Shanghai copper is expected to increase by more than 16 percent in 2025. London copper will rise by 22 percent this year.
Yangshan Copper Premium
Aluminium fell 1.09% among SHFE's base metals. Zinc was down 0.09%. Lead dropped 0.46%. Nickel tumbled 1.75 %. Tin declined 0.93%.
The LME's other metals also fell, with aluminium falling 0.96%. Zinc was down 0.93%, while lead dropped 0.87%. Nickel was down 0.66%, and tin fell 0.98%. $1 = 7.131 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson)
(source: Reuters)