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IEA: World oil market will have even greater surplus in 2026
International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the global oil market will have a surplus of up to 4,09 million barrels a day next year as OPEC+ and its rivals increase production and demand slows. In its November monthly report, the IEA stated that "global oil market balances look increasingly lopsided as global oil supply continues to grow while oil demand remains modest by historic standards." The Agency expects the global oil supply to increase by approximately 3.1 million barrels a day (bpd), and 2.5 million bpd in 2020, both up around 100,000 bpd per month. The IEA's 2026 implied surplus will be 120,000 bpd higher than the 3,97 million bpd supply-demand mismatch for next year that was suggested in its October report. The IEA's short-term forecast in its monthly report contrasts the annual outlook released by the agency on Wednesday, where global oil and natural gas demand is projected to increase. Potentially rising until 2050. Rapid Supply Growth The IEA reported that the global oil production was 6.2 millions bpd more in October than it was at the beginning of the year. This increase was evenly split between OPEC+ producers and non-OPEC ones. Saudi Arabia contributed to the rise by adding 1.5 million bpd, while Russia only added 120,000 bpd due to sanctions and Ukrainian attacks. Despite the new U.S. sanction on Russian companies Rosneft, and Lukoil that "may have had the most significant impact on global oil markets yet," Russian exports "continued to be largely unabated," according to the IEA. The agency has also increased its forecasts for demand growth by 80,000 bpd in 2025 and 70,000 for 2026. This is due to the need for more petrochemical feedstock. OPEC Sees According to calculations made on the basis of its own monthly oil mark report released on Wednesday, a more balanced marketplace is expected next year. The surplus will be just 20,000 barrels per day. Waterborne Stock Levels Surging The Paris-based watchdog also called attention to the sharp increase in global oil stocks, which reached their highest level since July 2021 at just over 8 billion barrels in September. The rise was mainly due to a dramatic increase in the amount of waterborne oil stored, which increased by 80 million barrels during September. The agency also added that preliminary data for October shows that global stock levels continue to rise, driven again by an increase in waterborne barrels.
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Stocks are aiming for record highs with the US shutdown about to end
The world stock market was looking to return to record levels on Thursday, following the end of the largest government shutdown in history. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen, which is under increasing pressure due its devaluation against the euro and the dollar has reached a new record low. The STOXX 600 index in Europe made a steady debut with a nearly 1% increase from France's CAC 40, pushing both indexes up to their all-time highs and offsetting the more than 4% drop from German engineering giant Siemens reported disappointing earnings. The U.S. Stock Futures fluctuated from a slight negative to a 0.2% gain, but MSCI's 47 country All World Index was on track for its fourth daily gain in steadfastness as it drew to within four points of the October high. In the Oval Office, President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed the bill that ended the shutdown of the federal government. Next week, we should start receiving delayed economic data. The first data to be released could be October's payrolls, with the focus being on whether the figures will confirm private surveys which have indicated a softening of the job market. Michael Metcalfe of State Street Global Markets said that they were waiting for data fog to clear. However, the PriceStats data shows that inflation has been rolling over, so the jobs data will drive risk sentiment. SQUEEZED JEN Overnight, there was also action in Asia. The Japanese yen suffered renewed pressure on the currency market after the new prime minister's latest call for the central banks to slow down rate increases. The dollar was at a nine-month low, 154.92, and the yen had hit a new record low of 179.49 yen per euro. The country's Finance Minister had reminded traders the day before that the government closely monitored the currency. The Nikkei closed 0.4% higher and the Topix index reached a new high, as investors moved their portfolios away from artificial intelligence companies to invest in other sectors of the economy. There is still debate over whether the BoJ tightens rates by year's end. "Our inclination would be that they will but there's a strong narrative in the market that will prove hard to break, that policy settings will encourage an even weaker yen," State Street’s Metcalfe said. Gold held on to its recent gains, trading above $4,200, while government bond benchmarks were quiet, with U.S. 10 year yields at 4.09%, and Germany's 10 year yields at 2.565%. OIL SPILLS Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell slightly from its one-month-high, and the Shanghai Composite gained 1% in advance of data on retail sales and credit due later this week. Overnight, on Wall Street the Dow Jones Index reached a new record high while the Nasdaq, which is dominated by tech stocks fell. The mining-heavy London FTSE 100 fell fractionally after hitting a record high the day before. ASML and Infineon, two of Europe's leading tech stocks, showed signs that they had recovered from the steep losses suffered last week. The pound briefly hit a session-low after data revealed that Britain's economy barely grew during Q3, and the Australian dollar rose after employment numbers showed a rise, which boosted the view that rate-cutting cycles in Australia may have reached their limit. Brent crude futures dipped to a low of $62.42 a barrel, a three-week high. This was after OPEC revised its projection to predict a slight surplus in demand on the world oil markets for 2026. The previous day, they had fallen 3.8%. Suvro Sarkar is the DBS Bank energy sector team leader. He said, "The recent (price) decline seems to be driven OPEC's revised supply-demand balance for 2026, which confirms that the group now acknowledges the possibility of a glut of supply in 2026." (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton; Marc Jones)
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Croatian truffle hunters hunt for one of the world's most expensive delicacies
Ivana Karlic Ban, her two dogs and the fall-coloured forests in Croatia's northwest Istria region are on the hunt for one of the most expensive delicacies in the world. Only Italy and Croatia are home to the white truffle. It is a fungus underground that grows only from September to December, in symbiosis, with certain trees. The fungus has a strong, specific scent that can be detected by the Lagotto Romagnolo dogs of Karlic Ban. The white truffle, which is extremely rare, costs between 6,000 and 7,000 euros per kilogram ($6,997-$8,163), according to Karlic Ban. He added that black truffles, which are available all year round, can also be grown, but cost less. Karlic Ban, a third-generation truffle hunter born into a family that is passionate about the fungus, and her brother represent 'the third generation' of mushroom lovers. They run a store in Paladini near the northern Istrian city of Buzet, where they sell truffle-based products. Istria is a region in Croatia that borders Italy. She said, "We offer a variety of products." "We also have some original world products such as the first truffle chocolate and sweet treats with truffles for dogs." Karlic Ban, however, says that the number of truffles in the wild has decreased since her grandfather first hunted them fifty years ago. This is because climate change and deforestation are having a negative effect on the habitat where the fungus thrives. Karlic Ban stated that "too severe droughts will prevent the fungus growing, while too heavy rains will make it soft and rotten." "Their number has definitely decreased but the prices have accordingly gone up."
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Generali's operating profit for the nine-month period increased 10% due to lower natural disaster claims
Generali, Italy's largest insurer, reported double-digit growth in its first nine-month profit on Thursday. This was driven by the non-life division and lower claims for natural catastrophes. Generali's operating profit grew 10.1%, to 5.9 billion euro ($6.88billion), and the net result adjusted climbed 14%, to 3.3 billion euro. Both were in line with the analyst consensus provided by the company. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, a state-backed lender, gained control over Mediobanca, Generali’s largest investor, in September. The bank was backed by Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, a billionaire Italian, and Delfin Holdings, the holding firm of Leonardo Del Vecchio. Caltagirone, Delfin and other leading Generali shareholders have repeatedly criticised Donnet for failing to grow the company adequately. They tried, but failed, to remove him from office in 2022. Since MPS became the main investor in the insurer, neither has given any indication as to how they view its future. Generali's shares rose 1.8% to 0915 GMT. This was better than other European peers. J.P. Morgan analysts cited solid results that allowed the insurer to accumulate reserves. Sources say that Generali's board appointed insurance chief Giulio Terrezariol as deputy group CEO on Wednesday. This was done to provide an internal option for a CEO in the event of Donnet's resignation by two investors. The insurer's undiscounted combination ratio, which is a measure for underwriting performance, where a number below 100 signifies a profit, increased to 94.2% on September 30 from 96.3% one year earlier. Cristiano Borean, Generali's director of finance, said that 2025 had been a benign experience so far. Borean reported that the total amount of natural catastrophe claims received in the first nine-month period was 573 million Euros, which is just over half the budget allocated for the entire year. This allowed Borean to improve its balance sheet. Borean said that Generali's budget of 1 billion euro for claims related to disasters was "well below" the actual amount. Generali has confirmed that it will achieve all of its targets set out in the 2027 plan. This includes a growth in average earnings per share of 8 to 10%. It also plans to pay more than 7 billion euro in dividends cumulatively and buy back at least 1,5 billion euros worth of shares over the period of this plan.
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Gold reaches a 3-week high amid US debt worries and Fed rate cuts expectations
Gold prices rose Thursday, reaching a three-week high on expectations of a higher debt level in the U.S., and delayed economic data that could support a Federal Reserve rate reduction next month. As of 8:09 GMT, spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,227.15 an ounce. This is its highest level since October 21. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.4% to $4,232.30 an ounce. The resolution of the U.S. Government Shutdown will not have a significant impact on the trend, because it is expected to increase debt levels, said Hugo Pascal. The physical demand for gold and silver remains strong, and recent U.S. indicators indicate a weakening of growth. This is a positive combination for metals' prices." The U.S. president Donald Trump signed legislation on Wednesday to end a 43-day shutdown of the government, the longest ever in U.S. History, which had delayed important economic data, such as reports on jobs and inflation. The agreement will fund federal operations until January 30. However, the government expects to add an additional $1.8 trillion per year to its debt burden of $38 trillion. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned against further easing in this year due to the lack of data. However, he cut interest rates by a quarter point last month. The U.S. Labor Department is urged to prioritise the November data on employment and inflation in order for Fed officials to have current information during their December policy meeting. According to a poll, 80% of economists believe that the Fed will cut rates next month by 25 basis points. Gold is usually a beneficiary of lower interest rates, as it offers no return and can be seen as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty. Gold has risen 60% this year and reached a new record of $4,381.21 in October, fueled by geopolitical and economic concerns, increasing ETF flows, and expectations for further rate cuts. Silver spot rose 1.4%, to $54.14 an ounce. This is a move towards the record high reached on October 17. Palladium was up 0.9% at $1,487.50, while platinum rose by 0.1% to $1,616.29. Anmol Choubey reported from Bengaluru. Jane Merriman edited the article.
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Media reports claim that two people were killed and 18 injured in South Korea when a truck crashed into a market.
Two people were killed and 18 injured when a light truck crashed in a South Korean market on Thursday. The truck plowed 150 metres along a passageway lined up with stalls, before it came to a stop. A fire official said in a television briefing that the incident occurred at a Bucheon market, located about 20 km (12.43miles) west of Seoul. Yonhap News Agency confirmed that two people who suffered cardiac arrest died. Fire official stated that the truck appeared to reverse 28 metres before it accelerated towards the outdoor market. He said the driver blamed an abrupt surge in acceleration for the accident. A police official told the press briefing that the driver did not appear to be intoxicated after undergoing a test for alcohol. The official stated that the authorities would turn over the vehicle to the investigators in order to determine the reason for the accident. On Korean television, CCTV footage showed shoppers at an outdoor market going about their daily business before a blue pickup truck accelerated down a passageway lined with stalls. It then crashed into one store. Yonhap reported that the police had detained a driver in his 60s, and were questioning him. (Reporting and editing by Jack Kim, Heejin Kim)
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Shanghai copper continues to gain on US Government reopening cheer
Shanghai copper prices rose on Thursday, as investors welcomed an end to the U.S. Government shutdown. This eased market uncertainty. However, gains were limited by the expectation of weak Chinese lending in advance of important economic data releases. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract closed the daytime trading at 86,550 Yuan ($12150.78) per metric ton, up by 0.95%. As of 0703 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper was also up, rising by 0.19%, to $10,965 per ton. The U.S. president Donald Trump signed legislation on Wednesday to end the longest shutdown of government in American history, just hours after the House of Representatives approved the spending package. Investors are pleased with the reopening the U.S. Government, which reduces uncertainty in the market. They also expect to see economic data returning to gauge the U.S. Economy. Copper gains are being held back by expectations of China's weak lending. Investors also await a number of economic data from China, which will be released this Friday. These include new home prices and retail sales as well as industrial output. Tin, the largest gainer among SHFE's base metals, posted the highest gains, closing the day at 298,140 yuan per ton, up 2.27%. Data from Indonesia's Trade Ministry showed that the country, which is a major supplier of tin to China, export 2,643 tonnes of refined tin during October. This was down 53.89 percent from a year ago, raising concerns about the availability of this soldering material. Nickel was not affected by the changes in nickel prices. $1 = 7.1230 Chinese yuan renminbi $1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson)
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Gold prices continue to rise after Trump signss deal to end shutdown
Gold rose on Thursday for the fifth consecutive session, reaching its highest level in over three weeks. This was boosted by the expectation that the reopening of the U.S. Government would restart the flow economic data. It also boosted bets about further interest rate reductions. As of 0637 GMT spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,207.24 an ounce. This is its highest level since October 21. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were unchanged at $4,211 an ounce. Jigar Trivedi is senior research analyst at Reliance Securities. He said that gold's winning streak was extending due to a weaker US dollar, the expectation of Federal Reserve rate reductions, and central bank accumulation. While a near-term consolidation may be possible following rapid gains, the outlook is still positive. The price of gold could reach $4,300/oz or higher by year's end, if real yields remain subdued, and the monetary policy is still accommodative. The longest government shutdown ever in U.S. History was ended by President Donald Trump's signing of legislation on Wednesday. The shutdown began on October 1. It had prevented the release of important economic data such as payroll and inflation reports. The U.S. Labor Department’s statistical agency is urged to produce the November employment and inflation report as soon as possible so that Federal Reserve officials can have the most up-to date information during their December policy meeting. According to 80% economists surveyed by, the Fed will lower its key rate again by 25 basis points in order to support a weakened labour market. This is a slight increase from last month's poll. Gold that does not yield tends to perform well when interest rates are low and economic uncertainty is present. Gold prices are up 60% in the past year, reaching a record high of $4381.21 on 20th October, boosted by geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and Fed rate cuts. The yen fell to a new record low against the euro, and sank to its lowest level in nine months against the dollar. This was after Japan's newly appointed prime minister stated that she wanted to see the central bank take a more cautious approach to raising interest rates. Silver spot rose 1.1%, to $54.02 an ounce. This is a move towards the record high reached on October 17. Palladium was up 0.5% at $1,480.59, while platinum fell 0.1% to $1,612.80. (Reporting and editing by Rashmia Aich, Mrigank Dahiwala, and Subhranshu Shu in Bengaluru.
China's copper imports are booming due to rising arbitrage and supply
The Chinese copper exports will likely set a new record in 2025. October shipments are expected to surpass 100,000 metric tonnage for the first time.
China is the largest consumer of copper in the world and the net importer. The red metal is used for power lines, construction, and manufacturing. China's smelters produce more refined copper now than ever before, and exports with their higher margins are becoming increasingly attractive as a way to offset the losses caused by record-low processing charges.
According to two sources in the industry who monitor cargoes, China probably shipped at least 100,000 tonnes of refined copper last month. This would bring the year-to date 2025 exports up to at least 580,000 tonnes, exceeding the 456,060 tonnes of exports in all of last.
LUCRATIVE ARCURAGE Chinese smelters, traders and investors have been lured to Europe and North America by the higher prices offered. This was especially true earlier this year when premiums at the U.S. Comex Exchange soared because traders were betting Washington would impose a tariff against copper.
Albert Mackenzie is an analyst with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. He said that the arbitrage between LME & Comex made global markets extremely tight.
Even though the White House has exempted refined Copper from tariffs, the premiums are still high enough to attract some material into the United States.
China's refined exports of copper to the United States reached 164,226 tonnes in January-September 20,25, up from 16,763 tons for all of 2024.
One of the sources who track the exports said that of the 100,000 tons or so exported in October, 40,000 tonnes will be delivered to LME warehouses. Another 40,000 of copper of non-Chinese origin is destined for the U.S. and another 20,000 tons are bound for Southeast Asia.
EUROPEAN PREMIUMS GAIN
According to LSEG Workspace, the LME copper price in early October was up to 3,234 yuan (US $454) per ton. This made exports a viable option. As of Thursday, it was 424 Yuan per ton higher.
Local suppliers in Europe have increased their premiums, which has sparked an interest in cheaper Chinese cargos.
A Chinese copper smelter has said it will consider shipping a few hundreds of tons of refined Copper to Europe every month.
Mackenzie, of BMI, stated that the increase in Chinese smelting capacities has also contributed to export growth.
China will produce record volumes of refined metals this year. Smelters are trying to increase their revenue by increasing the processing of copper ore in order to extract gold and other byproducts, and to cash in on record precious metal prices.
Unexpected disruptions in major mines, including those owned and operated by Ivanhoe Mines (Ivanhoe) and Freeport-McMoRan (Freeport-McMoRan), have hampered the supply of ores outside China. ($1 = 7.1230 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(source: Reuters)