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Reliance and ICICI Bank recover after initial jitters in Indian stocks
Indian share benchmarks recovered from initial jitters to rise?by mid-day on Friday as heavyweight stocks clawed back some?of the previous session's loss. As of 12:11 p.m. IST, the Nifty '50?added 0.54%, to 25,592.6. The BSE Sensex rose 0.48%, to 82897.3. The indexes had dropped about 0.3% on the opening, adding to a drop of 1.5% in the previous session. This was their biggest single-day decline in over two weeks. 15 of 16 major sectors were higher. The small-caps, mid-caps, and large-caps all added 0.1% to 0.5% respectively. Naveen Vyas is the head of the?family office of Anand Rathi Global Finance. Reliance Industries, a heavyweight, and?ICICI Bank, a smaller company, both rose on Friday by 0.9% and 0.7 percent, respectively, following sags of 2.2% and 1.4% in the previous session. The volatility index, a measure for expected volatility in the market over the next 30 day, spiked to 14.36 this week, barely missing an eight-month-high hit during the run-up to February 1's federal budget. Brent crude oil has risen to $72 a barrel due to tensions in the Middle East. The rise in crude oil prices is a problem for India, the third largest crude importer in the world. "We're still not out of trouble. Vyas said that if Brent crude oil surpasses $75 a barrel and remains at that level for a few months, it could add further pressure to Indian stocks. The IT index, which fell 0.5% in the last quarter of 2018, was the only major sector to lose ground. This is due to the continued concern over AI-related disruptions on earnings. Reporting by Vivek M and Bharathrajeswaran, Editing by Rashmi aich, Ronojoy Mazumdar, and Harikrishnan Nair
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Mineral Resources makes an interim profit due to increased Onslow production and lithium rebound
Australia's Mineral Resources reported stronger-than-expected interim earnings on Friday, ?buoyed by steady nameplate-capacity output from its flagship Onslow Iron project ?and a rebound in lithium ?prices. Mineral Resources'?mining? services volumes rose by 22.1%, to a new record of 166 million wet tons. The group's Onslow Iron project reached nameplate capacity last August and its operations recovered following haul-road upgrades made after a road train accident earlier this year. Onslow Iron's production increased to 17.3 metric tonnes of wet iron on a 100 % basis, compared with 6.3 metric tons wet iron a year ago. The Mining Services division reported a?EBITDA for the first six months of A$488m, an increase of 29% over the previous year. This helped lift the group EBITDA to a record A$1.2b, a 286% jump from the last year. Board chair Malcolm Bundey stated that "Onslow Iron has now proven to be a cash-generative operation" and added that the mining services division "continues delivering superior performance." MinRes' Lithium division achieved a?underlying EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest and Tax) of A$167million, which is a tenfold rise from last year, as the price of the battery metal soared amid increasing battery storage demand, along with the squeeze in supply following the August production The underlying net profit was A$343 (US$242.16M) for the first half of the year. This is a significant improvement over the A$196.9 million consensus estimate by Visible Alpha. The financial and 'operating improvement of MIN is remarkable. Sandstone Insights analysts said that the company has not yet reached its promised land of distributing surplus cash to shareholders. However, it does have a plan and momentum to reach this goal. MinRes chose not to declare an interim dividend and instead focused on "deleveraging" amid significant scrutiny surrounding its capital expenditure at Onslow. After capital expenditures had driven?it up to A$5.3billion at the end of FY2025, this level had caused concern among investors. The lithium miner's shares rose up to 4.3%, reaching a two-week high. However, they closed more than 5% lower.
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ASIA GOLD - India discounts are widening as price volatility dampens the demand; China is on holiday
Gold demand in India remained low this week as volatility in prices discouraged buyers. Other major Asian hubs including China were closed for Lunar New Year holidays. Bullion dealers offer a discount on Up to $18 per an ounce for official domestic gold prices, inclusive of 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes. This is a significant increase from the previous week's discount of up $12. Jewellers in New Delhi are offering discounts on making charges to entice buyers. On?Friday the domestic gold price was trading at around 155,000 rupees for 10 grams. It had hit a high of 180 779 rupees in January before falling to as low as 133 687 rupees during February. Last month, gold exchange-traded fund inflows were strong, which offset a decline in jewellery demand. However, this month, demand has been weaker from both investment and jewellery segments, according to a Mumbai bullion dealer at a private banking institution. Data from the Association of Mutual Funds of India showed that flows to India's Gold ETFs had more than doubled since the previous month, to 240.4 billion rupies. This put them ahead of equity flow for the first ever time. This week, markets in China and Singapore were closed for Lunar New Year. As of 0540 GMT spot gold prices were trading at around $5,000 per ounce, up from the $4,403,24 low earlier in the month. Gold reached a record-high of $5,594.82 per ounce on Jan 29. In Japan Gold was sold with a $10 discount on?premiums up to $1. A precious metals trader in Tokyo said: "We saw some interest but it was not very active. Looks like (investors) will wait for a dip before buying." ($1 = 90.7275 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru and Rajendra Jadhav in Mumbai; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
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Indonesia and the US reach a tariff agreement of 19% on palm oil, other commodities, and other goods.
Indonesia and the United States have finalised a deal that will?cut U.S. levy to 19%, from 32%, on goods shipped out of Southeast Asia's largest economy. Jakarta has secured tariff exemptions for its top export, palm oi, as well as several other commodities. After months of negotiations, Indonesia's senior economist?Airlangga?Hartarto signed the agreement in Washington with U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer. Airlangga, during an online media conference, said that the deal was a win-win for both countries. Palm oil was an important exemption for Indonesia, representing around 9% in its total exports. Airlangga announced that spices, coffee, cocoa and rubber from Indonesia would be exempted of tariffs. A DEAL IS COMING AFTER STARTING TO 2026 The 19% rate matches the U.S. agreements with Southeast Asian competitors such as Malaysia Cambodia Thailand and Philippines. Vietnam has a slightly higher rate at 20%. Malaysia, another important palm oil exporter, has also a tariff-free product for this product as well as cocoa and rubber. The deal follows a rough start to the year in Indonesian markets. Last month, index provider MSCI warned that the equity markets risked being downgraded to "frontier status" due to transparency issues. Moody's also cut the credit rating outlook of the country two weeks ago citing reduced predictability. Yose Rizal, the executive director of CSIS Indonesia, believes that investor confidence could increase if Jakarta used the U.S. agreement as a springboard to further reform. "If Indonesia could use some of its United States commitments as a basis to deregulation and multilateralize them, that would increase trust in Indonesia. That's something that should be taken advantage, optimized," said he. INDONESIA WILL ACCEPT US PRODUCT NORMS The deal stipulates that textile products from Indonesia are subject to a 0% tax under a quota system which is yet to be finalized. The quota is determined by the amount of U.S. textile materials, such as cotton or man-made fibers. Airlangga reported that the U.S. has dropped its request to add non-economic clauses to the agreement, including those related nuclear reactor development, the South China Sea and other issues. According to a White House Fact Sheet, Indonesia will in return remove tariff barriers from most U.S. goods across all sectors, and also address non-tariff 'barriers' such as the local content requirement. The United States will accept U.S. standards for vehicle safety, emission, medical devices, and pharmaceuticals. A DEAL TO SUPPORT US INTERESTS IN CRUCIAL MINERALS Analysts have said that the deal is also a response to Washington's concerns about China's stranglehold over many vital minerals and its offshoring to countries such as Indonesia. Indonesia will, under the agreement, implement "restrictions" on "excess production" by foreign-owned mining facilities. This is to ensure that production adheres to Indonesian mining quotes. Nickel, cobalt and copper are among the minerals that fall under this category. Jakarta has also agreed that it will take action against foreign companies operating within its jurisdiction if their practices are harmful to U.S. commercial interests. Indonesia will help the United States invest in vital minerals and energy sources, as well as work with U.S. firms to accelerate development of its rare earth sector. Airlangga stated that the deal would take effect 90-days after both parties complete all legal procedures. However, Airlangga added that changes may still occur if both parties agree. The deal was made in Washington and President Donald Trump invited Prabowo to the first meeting of the Board of Peace. Prabowo, and Trump signed a document on Friday titled "Implementation Agreement Toward a New Golden Age for the U.S. - Indonesian Alliance", which according to the White House would help both countries strengthen their economic security and grow. In the past week, Indonesian companies and U.S. firms signed agreements worth $38,4 billion. (Reporting and editing by John Mair; David Stanway, Edwina Gibbs, and Stanway Gayatri Sulaiman)
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Oil prices rise and stocks fall as Trump escalates his war on Iran
The stock market in Asia fell on Friday. The?dollar was headed for its biggest weekly gain in 4 months, and oil prices rose as the U.S. military buildup in the Middle East shook the markets. Japan's ?Nikkei ?dropped 1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.6% after returning from Lunar New Year holiday, with the biggest selling in technology and e-commerce shares. S&P 500 Futures rose by 0.2%, while European futures were up by 0.3%. Wall Street's private equity stocks were hit after Blue Owl Capital stopped quarterly redemptions for one of its funds and sold assets. This stoked wider concerns about valuations and the liquidity of the sector. Blue Owl's stock ended about 6% lower, while shares of larger rivals Apollo Global Management (Blackstone) and Apollo Global Management (Apollo Global Management) fell by more than 5%. Benchmark Brent crude futures reached 6-1/2-month highs above $72 per barrel after U.S. president Donald Trump set a 10- to 15-day deadline for Iran to reach a nuclear deal or else "really bad" things would happen. Kenji Abe is the chief strategist of Daiwa Securities, a Tokyo-based brokerage firm. He said that investors were avoiding risk after the combination of the two news stories, as they prepare for the earnings report by the world's largest company, Nvidia. The Financial Times reported that the chipmaker was close to finalising a long-term commitment of $100 billion for OpenAI. This will replace the 100 billion dollar commitment made by the companies in the past year. The chipmakers have been shielded from the recent sales in software and other industries that are at risk of disruption. Blue Owl, which lends to AI companies, is under pressure because of the growing concern about returns on AI investments. Nick Ferres said, "The episode also exposed excessive leverage used to fund some AI capital expenditures and software companies." Nick Ferres is the CIO of Vantage Point Asset Management based in Singapore. He said that there are parallels to the 2008 off-balance-sheet financing and risk transfer pricing. "(Though),?the current incident is more likely to be a liquidity issue and not a solvency issue." DOLLAR NOTCHES WEEKLY GARANTIE The dollar is headed for the biggest weekly gain in four months, thanks to a patchwork?of slightly stronger U.S. economic data and minutes from the Federal Reserve which suggested that the Fed was not in a hurry to lower rates. The dollar has gained about 1% against the euro this week, pushing it to $1.1753. The yen fell after the data revealed that Japan's core inflation rate was 2% in the month of January. This is the lowest level in the past two years. This could complicate the central bank?s decision to raise interest rates. The dollar has gained 1.6% in the last week to 155.2 yen. The Australian dollar fell 0.3% to $0.7038. A?widening premium yield provided a cushion, but the kiwi, hamstrung due to the diminishing chance of an early rate hike, was heading for its biggest weekly drop in 2026. U.S. Treasuries yields remained steady at 4.07% for 10-year bonds, but the Fed minutes revealed a division over how quickly or if they should cut rates. This has pushed up two-year yields five basis points in a week, to 3.46%. Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets, said: "There doesn't seem to be any point in increasing risk before this weekend's unrest surrounding the Middle East." "Today, it feels good to stay out from trouble." Reporting by Tom Westbrook, Editing by Kim Coghill & Shri Navaratnam
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Trump threatens Iran with violence
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like today. The weekend was a huddled-down one for traders, with threats flying between Iran and the U.S., and nerves raging through the markets due to listed private equity funds. PMI surveys, ?U.S. PCE and GDP data, corporate earnings and a few other items headlined the calendar. However, politics and war risk seemed to dominate investors' minds. The dollar was heading for its biggest weekly increase in four months. U.S. president Donald?Trump set Iran a 10- to 15-day deadline to reach a nuclear deal or face "really terrible things". Asset prices are not moving much yet because it is Trump's classic?theatre. The U.S. sent warships, aircraft carriers and jets into the region. Traders are ready to'send oil and the dollar higher in case of conflict. Iran has said that it will respond to any attack. Brent crude futures are now trading at $72 per barrel, a six-and-a-half-month high. The dollar also held steady in the Asia session. Trump posted on social media about aliens, saying that he would order Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth to release government documents related to aliens. You wonder what he's trying to distract you from. Walmart's new CEO sounded cautious on Thursday about consumer spending. Private equity stocks have also fallen after Blue Owl's new strategy of returning capital from a "small debt fund" spooked the investors. Blue Owl announced that it had sold $1.4 billion in assets to return a portion of the proceeds to investors. It also permanently removed a quarterly redemption option at one fund, adding to already roiling concerns over valuations and liquidity. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. - U.S. GDP and PCE data - Global PMI surveys - Earnings of Danone, Air Liquide, and Anglo American
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Oil and stocks rise as Trump escalates Iran threats
Stocks dropped in Asia on Friday. The dollar was headed for its biggest weekly gain in 4 months, and oil prices rose. A U.S. build-up in the Middle East as well as a collapse in "private equity" stocks caused jitters across the markets. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3% after returning from Lunar New Year holiday. Overnight, listed private equity stocks on Wall Street took a hit after one manager Blue Owl sold assets and stopped quarterly redemptions for one of its funds. This sparked wider concerns over valuations and liquidity within the sector. Blue Owl shares fell 6%, while those of larger rivals Apollo Global Management & Blackstone dropped more than 5%. Benchmark Brent crude futures reached 6-1/2-month peaks above $72 per barrel as U.S. president Donald Trump gave Iran a 10- to 15-day deadline to reach a nuclear deal or else "really bad things" would happen. Kenji Abe is the chief strategist of Daiwa Securities, a Tokyo-based brokerage firm. He said that investors were hesitant to take risks, given the combination of the two news stories, ahead of the earnings report from the world's largest company, Nvidia. Financial Times, citing anonymous sources, reported that the chipmaker was close to finalising an investment of $30 billion into OpenAI, which?will replace a long-term commitment of $100 billion agreed upon by the companies?last year. Walmart shares dropped about 1.4% following the new CEO John Furner's cautious assessment of U.S. consumers. Data showed that the U.S. Trade Deficit widened dramatically in December and the Goods Shortfall in 2025 would be the highest ever recorded, suggesting Trump's Tariffs had little effect. DOLLAR NOTCHES WEEKLY GARANTIE The dollar is headed for the biggest weekly gain in four months thanks to a patchwork a slightly better U.S. data, and Federal Reserve minutes that suggest no rush to lower interest rates. The dollar has gained 0.9% against the euro this week, bringing the currency common to $1.1762 as a result. On Friday, the morning moves were modest. Japan's yen fell after data revealed that core Japanese inflation was at 2% in January, the slowest rate for two years. This could complicate the central bank's hike path. The dollar has gained 1.6% in the last week to reach 155.2 yen. The Australian dollar was holding steady at $0.7047, as a wider yield premium served as a buffer. Meanwhile, the Kiwi was being hamstrung by the diminishing chance of an early rate hike and heading for its biggest weekly drop in 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 4.06%. However, the Fed's minutes revealed a division over how quickly to reduce rates. This has pushed up the two-year yields to 3.46%. Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets, said: "There doesn't seem to be any point in increasing risk before this weekend's unrest surrounding the Middle East." "Today, it feels good to stay out trouble." (Reporting and editing by Kim Coghill; Tom Westbrook)
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Alberta to hold referendum on immigration control
Alberta will hold a referendum in the fall asking residents whether the government should limit?the number of international students, 'temporary foreign workers' and asylum seekers who?arrive?into the oil-rich Canadian Province. Alberta's Premier Danielle Smith announced the move in a television address on Thursday night. It is an attempt to take control of this important issue away from the federal government. Ottawa is responsible for the majority of immigration policy in Canada, and not the provinces. This is a blow to Canadian unity at a time when the Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to improve relations with resource-rich western provinces, and to halt a simmering separatism movement in Alberta. Smith stated that her government will face a significant budget deficit next week, due in part to a drop in resource royalties from the provinces as a result of lower oil prices. She also blamed Alberta’s fiscal challenges on its exceptionally rapid population increase, which is the fastest in Canada. Statista Canada says that Alberta's population will surpass 5 million in 2025. In the last five years, it has grown by more than 600,000. This, Smith said, is putting strain on the province's resources. In her speech, she stated that "throwing the doors open to everyone and anyone across the globe, has flooded our classes, emergency rooms, and social support system with far too many people far too fast." Alberta isn't the only province that has seen a population increase due to immigration. Canada has recently reduced its immigration targets, and placed caps on temporary residents. They cite a 'pressure on housing, social services, and infrastructure. According to ATB Financial, the main difference between Alberta's population and other provinces is that Albertans are moving interprovincially in search of better housing and opportunities. Smith stated that Albertans have identified international immigration among their top concerns during a recent town hall panel. She will therefore seek a referendum mandate in order to make changes. She stated that the changes could include a new law mandating only Canadian citizens, Permanent Residents and individuals with "Alberta Approved Immigration Status" would be eligible for programs funded by the province, such as education, health and social services.
Shanghai copper rates little changed despite US rate cuts
The copper price was little changed on Tuesday as traders were cautious about when the U.S. would cut rates again, while there remained doubts about whether China will provide more stimulus in order to boost its economic growth.
As of 0334 GMT, the most traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange was up 0.03%, at 79.960 yuan per metric ton ($11,237.76).
By 0334 GMT, the benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange had risen by 0.01% per ton.
Jerome Powell, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, said on Tuesday that the central bank must continue to balance competing risks such as high inflation and a weakened job market. Arguments from other Fed officials, however, showed policy divisions within the Fed. This led to uncertainty about future rate cuts in 2018.
The U.S. Dollar strengthened, which weighed on the market. The dollar is stronger, making commodities that are traded in the greenback costlier for investors who use other currencies.
China's key lending rate remained unchanged on Monday for the fourth consecutive month following the U.S. rate cut. This left investors in doubt about whether the Asian nation would continue to implement stimulus measures, and investor sentiment was cautious.
Galaxy Futures analysts said that the incident involving the leakage of wet material at Freeport’s Grasberg mine operations remained unresolved. This kept supply of raw copper concentrates tight.
Aluminium was unchanged among other SHFE base materials, while zinc fell 0.21% and nickel increased 0.27%. Lead lost 0.26%, and tin rose 0.5%.
The price of nickel, tin, and zinc on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were all down. Aliminium, lead, and zinc, however, did not change much. $1 = 7.1513 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson)
(source: Reuters)