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The final rush to move metal across the border will be sparked by Trump's copper tariffs

In the next few weeks, copper shipments to the United States will likely increase in an effort to meet President Donald Trump's 50% tariff on imported metal that is higher than expected.

Trump announced the tariffs on copper on a Tuesday. U.S. Comex futures rose more than 12%, reaching a new record high. U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the tariff would be implemented by the end or beginning of August.

The deadline puts an end to a playbook that has been in use for months. Traders have taken metal from warehouses all over the world to ship it to the U.S., hoping to profit on a premium of around $2600 per metric tonne early on Wednesday.

Analysts and traders say that with only three weeks to go, only those cargoes on the water already or from Latin America are likely to arrive in time.

"Shipments on their way to the U.S. are likely to try and get there even if they haven't yet, so the ex-U.S. market shouldn't be faced with excess cargoes right away." It will be harder to ship extra cargoes within a three week window, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a report.

According to a Chinese copper dealer who spoke under condition of anonymity, Chilean producers that have Chinese contracts will likely increase their practice of sending Comex-eligible stocks to the U.S. instead of sending other brands to China.

Analysts and traders said that the final rush may mean continued tightness in the U.S., during the sprint to the deadline for tariffs. After the deadline, the U.S. gravitational pull will lessen, allowing supplies elsewhere.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan say that the U.S. imported enough copper to last a full year in the past six-month period. They predict that imports will continue to fall even after tariffs are implemented as users use up their stockpiles.

Prices of copper on the London Metal Exchange as well as the Shanghai Futures Exchange

Just over 1% of the population has declined

In the hours following Trump's announcement.

Citi predicts that copper prices outside of the U.S. are likely to drop to $8,800 a ton in the next three-months.

Benchmark copper prices on the LME were trading at $9.603 per metric ton as of 0941 GMT.

The tightness on the global copper markets, where demand continues outstrips supply, will likely limit any possible decline.

According to Zhao Yongcheng of benchmark mineral intelligence, "Copper prices are under pressure on the SHFE, but will likely rebound once U.S. Copper Tariffs are finalised, as fundamentals are tight in the near-term."

(source: Reuters)