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Russell: Iron ore is a very different story from the China tariffs pain narrative
The United States has imposed massive tariffs on Chinese goods, and the Chinese economy faces a huge blow. However, the commodity that is most vulnerable is not affected. China is most exposed to iron ore, as it buys over 70% of the seaborne volume, which is used to make just under half of the global steel. Iron ore prices have remained relatively stable since U.S. president Donald Trump began his trade war with China. The United States now imposes tariffs of up to 145% on China, its biggest trading partner. On Wednesday, iron ore contracts on the Singapore Exchange closed at $99.35 per metric ton. This is after they had risen from a low of $96.20 per metric ton that was reached on May 1. Since October, the price has traded in a relatively small range. The high was $110.55 at the beginning of that month, and the low was at the beginning of May. China's iron ore imports have also slowed slightly. Customs data shows that first quarter arrivals were down 7.8% compared to the same period last year, at 285.31 millions tons. While this figure may seem low, it is largely due to weather conditions in Australia that cut off shipments by China's largest supplier. China's port stocks are a clear indication of the supply disruption SteelHome data shows that they dropped to a 14 month low of 133.8 millions tons during the week ending April 25. Stockpiles reached 147.5 million tonnes in mid-February. This shows that steel mills are using their inventories to continue production during the period when supply from Australia is disrupted. Analysts Kpler expect China's imports to have recovered from March, when they recorded 93.97 millions tons. China's steel production is also holding steady, with March's total of 92.84 millions tons representing a 10-month-high and a 4.6% increase from the same period in 2024. Overall, the iron ore market has been relatively stable this year. Any import weakness can be attributed to disruptions in supply. China's demand is also fairly steady. Iron ore imports should also be expected to continue beyond April if China's stocks are to reflect the normal seasonal build-up leading into the summer steel peak in the north. DEMAND FOR STEEL If there is such concern over the negative impact on China of U.S. Tariffs, then why are iron ore, and steel, holding up? Are they about to decline in price? Answer: A large part of China's demand for steel is found in industries less exposed to international trade. Property and infrastructure are the two largest steel-consuming industries, accounting for almost 60% of total demand. The property market has been struggling in recent years. However, early signs suggest that Beijing's stimulus measures are beginning to stabilize it. Machines, automobiles and household appliances are the trade-exposed segments of steel demand, accounting for almost a third. Even here, China's exports are not primarily destined for the United States. Instead, the majority of vehicles and machinery is shipped to Asia, Europe and South America. The United States is more exposed in the manufacturing of toys, clothing, and other items that do not use much steel, but rely more on chemicals, plastics, and rubber. The official purchasing managers' (PMI), which measures the level of activity in the private sector, fell to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in march. Beijing's recent stimulus measures were likely also influenced by the PMI slump, as they announced on Wednesday a reduction in interest rates and an increase in liquidity. It's clear that some parts of China are feeling the pain from the tariffs, but other parts are doing well. Beijing's message is geared towards positives, but the U.S. administration is more likely to hear the story of pain. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Prices of oil rise on US-China trade talks
Oil prices rose on Thursday, after dropping more than $1 the previous session. This was due to hopes that a breakthrough would be made in upcoming trade talks between China and the U.S., two of the largest oil consumers in the world. Brent crude futures rose 51 cents or 0.8% to $61.63 per barrel. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude rose 57 Cents or 1%, reaching $58.64 per barrel at 0420 GMT. Tina Teng, an independent analyst, said that optimism around the U.S.-China trade talks at the weekend was a major factor in supporting the recovery of the oil market. "Signs that a trade war was deescalating improved the market sentiment and triggered a recovery in oil prices on an oversold marketplace." Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, will meet China's top official in the economy on May 10, for talks about a trade conflict that is disrupting global economic growth. These are the two world's largest economies, and their trade war is likely to reduce crude consumption growth. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, suggested on Wednesday that China initiated trade talks. He added that he would not be willing to lower U.S. tariffs against Chinese goods in order to convince Beijing to negotiate. Bessent stated that the talks will be a beginning, and not an 'advanced discussion'. After the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at their current levels but warned of rising economic uncertainty, weak demand concerns have capped oil prices gains. The Fed has indicated that it will probably hold rates until the tariff effects are clearer. The U.S. Dollar was boosted, adding to the headwinds on the broader commodities markets. Dollar-denominated crude oil becomes more expensive and less desirable for holders of currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Analysts are concerned that the U.S. is not preparing for the summer period of demand. This month, gasoline inventories in the U.S. rose, adding to concerns about a weakening demand. OPEC+ (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its allies will simultaneously increase their oil production, increasing pressure on the price.
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The London Metals Company ahead of US-China Trade Talks
Metal prices in London rose mainly on Thursday, ahead of the U.S. China trade talks this Saturday. This was after the Federal Reserve warned that rising inflation and labour market risk could fuel economic uncertainty. As of 0344 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), rose by 0.5% to $9467 per metric ton. The Fed maintained interest rates on Wednesday. They acknowledged that the risks of inflation and unemployment were higher, which further impacted the U.S. economy amid the effects President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that it's not clear whether the economy will maintain its steady growth pace or falter under rising uncertainty and an upcoming spike in inflation. The New York Times reported that late on Wednesday, Trump's administration would announce a deal with the United Kingdom on Thursday. After months of rising tensions, which pushed tariffs well above 100% between the two world's largest economies, traders have adopted a cautious approach ahead of this weekend's U.S. China meeting scheduled in Switzerland. Both countries will likely discuss the possibility of lowering tariffs on specific products and a broader range of duties. We're all eagerly awaiting any updates or news from the U.S.-China trade talks. Uncertainty about the direction of markets is difficult to predict until we hear more," said a trader. Other London metals saw aluminium rise 0.6% to $2 395 per ton. Zinc added 0.4% at $2 627. Lead fell 0.3% at $1 951. Tin gained 1.0% at $31,965. And nickel rose 0.4% at $15,615 per ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most traded copper contract fell by 0.2%, to 77840 yuan per ton ($10,760.89). SHFE aluminium fell 0.3%, to 19,595 Chinese yuan per ton. Zinc rose 0.2%, to 22,390 Yuan. Lead gained 0.4%, to 16,795 Yuan. Nickel rose 0.2%, to 124330 Yuan. Tin rose 0.4%, to 263,000 Yan. $1 = 7.2336 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Sumana Niandy; Violet Li, Lewis Jackson)
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Australian climate protesters disrupt Woodside’s annual meeting
On Thursday, climate change protesters shouted and blew whistles as they disrupted Australian Woodside Energy's Annual General Meeting. They also heckled Chief Executive Meg O'Neill. Similar to last year's protests, investors were also involved in the reaction to Woodside’s gas projects and sustainable measures. The Australian pension funds HESTA, and Aware, lodged protest votes against Woodside’s director who was charged with overseeing climate risk. O'Neill said to protesters who interrupted the opening of her speech: "I'd like to ask that you be respectful to the other shareholders who are in the room. They have a keen desire to understand what we're trying to do to create value for them." You should be ashamed! Some of them were yelling. As O'Neill spoke about Woodside's portfolio of gas, its contribution to the society, and its role in meeting decarbonisation and energy security goals, the whistling began. Richard Goyder, Chairman of the Board, said that the behavior was "unnecessary". The event organizers tried to drown out noise by playing promotional video clips about the company’s energy projects and sponsorships of the local football club, the Fremantle Dockers. O'Neill continued, "We can still play many more videos." Similar protests were made at last year's annual meeting, and Woodwide's emission plan was rejected by shareholders. The company approved a $17.5 billion liquefied gas project in Louisiana, United States. This would increase its LNG production to 24 million tonnes annually (Mtpa), or more than 5 percent of global supply, in the next ten years. Glass Lewis, a powerful proxy adviser, recommended to shareholders that they block the reelection of Ann Pickard as an independent director, who chairs the committee for climate risk. HESTA, Aware and Storebrand in Norway have said that they will vote against Pickard's reelection. The US pension funds CalPERS, CALSTRS, and CALSTRS, too, have said they will vote against Ben Wyatt. HESTA released a statement saying that "the steps taken by Woodside to date fall short of what it needs to do to position itself for a global transition to a future low-carbon." (Reporting from Christine Chen in Sydney, Editing by Clarence Fernandez).
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North Star Takes Delivery of its First CSOV (Video)
North Star has officially named its first commissioning service operation vessel (CSOV), the Grampian Kestrel.The vessel was named at a ceremony at VARD’s shipyard in Vard Langsten in Norway on May 6.The Grampian Kestrel is the first of two CSOVs to be delivered this year, as part of the firm’s drive to support its growing portfolio of offshore wind clients with cutting-edge tonnage and exceptional service.The new vessel, of VARD 4 22 design, will go on service with EnBW and precede the decade-long minimum charter contract the firm signed in 2024 to provide a SOV (of VARD 407 design) for the German energy utility firm’s He Dreiht wind farm in the North Sea.A high specification vessel, the Grampian Kestrel has the ability to support all aspects of the wind farm’s life cycle, offering essential accommodation and logistics to support construction and commissioning works.Following this, it will lead EnBW’s operations and maintenance activities until the newbuild SOV is delivered in the third quarter 2026.The VARD 4 22 design has been developed in close collaboration with Vard Design, with new methanol ready hybrid-propulsion solutions and an increased number of single cabins, providing hotel quality accommodation for the technicians working in field. It also includes a high-performance daughter craft with space for a second to suit the clients’ operational needs.“The vessel is built to service all aspects of an offshore windfarms’ lifecycle and has a competent North Star crew to ensure we deliver our services to the highest standard."We are proud to christen this future-ready vessel, which sets a new industry benchmark by becoming the world’s first to achieve Lloyd’s Register’s Cyber Resilience classification. This certification underscores our commitment to being a safe and reliable partner - for our employees, our clients, and the broader offshore wind industry,” said Gitte Gard Talmo, CEO at North Star.North Star’s offshore wind fleet now comprises eight vessels, including both delivered and in-build assets. The shipping firm has also placed 160 experienced seafarers to support its SOV fleet and will recruit a further 160 seafarers in the next three years to meet current contract charter commitments.
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Iron ore prices fall on China demand fears and Sino-US tensions
Iron ore futures prices fell on Thursday, as traders considered the impact of trade tariffs between China and the United States. They also weighed concerns about a possible slowdown in demand from China's top consumer. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading 2.17% lower, at 697.5 Yuan ($96.43). As of 0318 GMT, the benchmark June iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 1.19% to $97.15 per ton. Analyst Zhuo Guqiu at Jinrui Futures said that the price drop of steelmaking components was more dramatic than steel. China Metallurgical News, a state-backed publication, cited officials of the steel association to say that the relevant authorities were actively advancing national crude steel production control. China announced its plans to restructure the giant steel industry in March. However, it did not specify when or how much production would be cut. This statement from the Steel Association has confirmed such expectations. Hot metal production is also expected to reach a high point soon. Iron ore demand is usually gauged by the hot metal production, which is a blast-furnace product. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell by 2.35% and 2.58 %, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar fell 1%, hot-rolled steel coil dropped 0.87% and wire rod decreased 0.72%. Stainless steel gained 0.12%. The iron market has seen a significant drop in demand despite Beijing's injection of a number of monetary stimuli on Wednesday to try and mitigate the damage that the trade war between the United States and China had caused. The stimulus package is not a good sign for Sino-U.S. Trade Talks, as it suggests a readiness for the worst-case scenario. An analyst said this under condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue.
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Gold prices rise as Fed warns of economic uncertainty
Gold rose on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve warned that rising inflation and labor-market risks were fueling economic uncertainty. Investors awaited this weekend's outcome of U.S. China trade talks. As of 0223 GMT, spot gold increased 1.4% to $3409.76 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.7% to $3416.70. Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com, said: "I think the main reason is a slight drop in the front-end yields after the Fed. The "wait and watch" language has been good enough so far and Trump's hotter rhetoric about trade negotiations with China." It taps into the two main themes of slower US growth and dedollarisation. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but warned that risks of inflation and unemployment were rising, which further clouded the U.S. economy outlook as policymakers struggled to deal with the impact President Donald Trump's new tariffs. Fed chair Jerome Powell stated that it's not clear whether the economy will continue to grow steadily or falter under rising uncertainty and an inflation spike. The market is expecting a rate cut of 77 basis point this year starting in September. Trump said on Wednesday that China would be initiating the next senior-level talks between the countries. He also stated that he wasn't willing to lower import tariffs for Chinese products to bring Beijing to the table. This weekend, U.S. officials and Chinese officials will be holding talks in Switzerland. In an environment of low interest rates, the non-yielding gold bullion thrives as a protection against financial and political turmoil. India attacked Pakistan and Pakistani Kashmir Wednesday in response to the killings of tourists in Kashmir last month. Pakistan has vowed retaliation and claimed to have shot down five Indian planes in the worst conflict between nuclear-armed neighbors in over two decades. Silver spot rose by 1.1%, to $32.82 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.8% and reached $982.05. Palladium remained at $971.95. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nady and Rashmi Akich in Bengaluru)
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London metals mixed before US-China trade talks
Investors in London reacted to the Federal Reserve's warning about the potential impact of rising inflation and labor market risks on economic uncertainty by varying the metal prices they paid for. As of 0139 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange (LME), rose by 0.1% to $9432.5 per metric ton. The Fed maintained interest rates on Wednesday. They acknowledged that the risks of inflation and unemployment were higher, which further clouded the U.S. economy outlook, especially in light of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that it's not clear whether the economy will maintain its steady growth pace or falter under rising uncertainty and an upcoming spike in inflation. Trump also announced via Truth Social that a news conference in the Oval Office regarding a major deal with "representatives of a large, highly respected country" will take place on Thursday. He did not, however, name the country. After months of rising tensions, which pushed tariffs well above 100% between the two world's largest economies, traders have adopted a cautious approach ahead of this weekend's U.S. China meeting scheduled in Switzerland. Both countries will likely discuss the possibility of lowering tariffs on certain products and broader tariffs. We're all eagerly awaiting any updates or news from the U.S.-China trade talks. Uncertainty about the direction of markets is difficult to predict until we hear more," said a trader. Other London metals saw aluminium rise 0.3%, to $2389 per ton. Zinc added 0.3%, to $2624, while lead fell 0.3%, to $1951. Tin gained 0.2%, to $31,685, and nickel dropped 0.2%, to $15,525 per ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most traded copper contract fell by 0.4%, to 77 690 yuan per ton ($10 732.59). SHFE aluminium fell by 0.6%, to 19,530 Chinese yuan per ton. Zinc rose by 0.2%, to 22,390 Yuan. Lead gained 0.6%, to 16,835 Yuan. Nickel dropped 0.4%, to 123620 Yuan. Tin declined 0.2%, to 261,270 Yuan. $1 = 7.2387 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Sumana Niandy; Violet Li, Lewis Jackson)
Goldman Sachs raises copper price forecast on resilient Chinese demand
Goldman Sachs raised its quarterly copper forecast on Wednesday, citing a de-escalation of trade tensions as well as the resilient Chinese demand for copper that will continue to support prices over the next few months.
The bank stated in a statement that it had upgraded its 2Q/3Q forecast from $8.620/$8.370 to $9.330/$9.150/t.
The bank stated that the high U.S. imports of copper are expected to reduce stocks outside the U.S. during the remainder the second quarter. This will tighten the forward spreads at the London Metal Exchange and discourage new speculative positions.
Goldman Sachs reported that China's demand for copper has remained stable in 2025, mainly due to strong exports. The bank predicts that as exports begin to slow, demand will remain strong in the second quarter but then start to decline in the third.
Baseline forecasts from the bank indicate a significant decline in global demand for copper in the second half, and a decision is imminent on U.S. Tariffs under Section 232.
In February, U.S. president Donald Trump ordered an investigation into possible tariffs for copper imports in order to rebuild U.S. metal production.
The bank stated that if the decision was delayed until late 2025 it would disrupt copper trade and lead to a shortage of supply outside the U.S., particularly in China.
In the longer term, the bank says the copper market will move into a supply deficit in 2026, driven by strong demand from electrification-related sectors and limited growth in mining.
It added that this would push the price from an anticipated low of $9,000 per ton in October of 2025, to more than $10,000 per ton by 2026.
The benchmark three-month copper price on the LME traded at $9,438 per metric ton as of 1347 GMT. It had previously reached $9,582, which was its highest level since early Asian trading hours. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Jan Harvey and Brijesh Anil in Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)