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As Sino-US trade conflict escalates, China's stimulus hopes are raised by the iron ore rebound

Iron ore futures rose on Thursday as a Sino-U.S. Trade War escalated, raising hopes for more aggressive stimulus from Beijing to offset the impact of the heavy tariffs.

In response to President Donald Trump's decision to increase tariffs on Chinese imports from 34% to 104% on Wednesday, China, the world's largest metals consumer, increased tariffs on U.S. goods from 34% to 84%.

Trump responded with a tariff even higher than 125%.

After falling to its lowest level in over six months on Tuesday, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed daytime trading 3.06% higher.

As of 0700 GMT, the benchmark May iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange had increased by 1.76%. It now costs $96.45 per ton. The session saw an intraday peak of $99.5.

Analysts at ING said that the prospect of a long-term trade war had also led to expectations from Beijing for more aggressive stimulus measures.

Premier Li Qiang stated that China must implement proactive macroeconomic policies as "external pressures" have impacted China's stabilisation of its economy.

Coking coal and coke both gained in price, but other steelmaking ingredients were mixed.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a rise in most steel benchmarks. Wire rod and hot-rolled coil rose 2.01%. Stainless steel fell 0.28%.

Trump announced, in an astonishing U-turn, that he would suspend the heavy duties on trading partners who did not retaliate. This boosted market sentiment, and sent metals surging.

Chen Kexin said that China's exports of steel this year could fall below 70 millions tons because of intensifying trade tensions. He added that front-run shipments will not cause exports to plummet in the first half.

In 2024, China's steel imports reached a record high of 110.72 millions tons. $1 = 7.3420 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Colleen howe)

(source: Reuters)