Latest News
-
China's rare-earth exports are halted as trade controls bite
Three sources confirmed that the shipment of seven rare Earths, which Beijing placed on its export control list, has ceased. This raises the risk of shortages abroad as Chinese exporters wait indefinitely for government licensing. Sources familiar with the situation said that the shipments stopped on April 4 when Beijing restricted exports of seven rare Earths and related materials used in the energy, defense and automotive industries. This was part of Beijing's retaliation for U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff increases on Chinese goods. Exporters are now required to apply for licenses at the Ministry of Commerce, a process that is relatively opaque and can take anywhere from six to seven weeks up to several months. Last month, it was reported that there had not been any antimony exports into European Union countries since China placed the metal on a controlled list in September. When asked by clients about the time it will take for their cargo to leave China we estimate 60 days, but in reality, this may be longer," said a China trader who spoke under condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the subject. They said that if the freeze lasts longer than two month, the stockpiles of goods built up by clients could disappear. It could also be difficult for U.S. customers to obtain export licenses, given the trade war between superpowers. China produces 90% of rare earths in the world. Export restrictions show how Beijing can weaponize this control and all but cut off the supply to users worldwide. Export controls will also erode China's dominance, as they force buyers overseas to diversify away from China. Two analysts claim that several Chinese sellers of rare earths have declared force majeure in their contracts with foreign buyers. Two analysts said that cargoes waiting at ports for shipment were barred from leaving the port if they had not cleared customs. Uncertain is the number of cargoes that were scheduled to be shipped. China's customs and commerce ministries did not reply to questions faxed outside office hours. Lewis Jackson reported from Beijing. Mark Potter (Editing)
-
The latest French reactor is facing further delays because of new issues
An EDF spokesperson said that the outage of the Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor by the French state-owned power company EDF was extended an extra week in order to perform maintenance on three additional components within the reactor's nuclear part. This extension follows a delay of two months for maintenance work on the cooling system and rotors in the turbo alternator. The reactor is in its ramp-up phase, and it has produced only a small amount of electricity since December last year. EDF did not give any specifics on the maintenance required or the costs, but stated that the date for reaching full power in the summer has not changed. EDF's spokesperson stated that the maintenance of the turbo alternator would only be measured when the reactor was next connected to grid. This could mean an additional shutdown in the event additional problems were found during ramp-up. EDF stated that the shutdown was a part of a ramp-up procedure where equipment is stressed-tested before it is operated at full power. This process will be repeated multiple times over the next few weeks and months. EDF has only completed one French reactor in the past 25 years, Flamanville 3. As part of a project that was first proposed by President Emmanuel Macron 2022, the heavily indebted French company is looking for funding to build six new EPR2 reactors. (Reporting and editing by David Evans; Forrest Crellin)
-
As trade war continues to roil markets, stocks and the dollar are once again battered.
Global stocks dropped on Friday, and the dollar fell after a week that was marked by a trade war escalating to a full-blown conflict and a selloff in the bond market which has sparked fears of a recession and shaken the confidence of U.S. assets. Investors sought out other safe assets. The euro rose 1.7% to $1.13855 - a level not seen since February 2022 - and gold, which is seen as a secure asset in times of crisis, reached another record high. Investors are worried about the Sino-U.S. Trade War after U.S. president Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese Imports to 145%. China has responded by increasing its tariffs against the U.S. for each Trump increase. This has raised fears that Beijing could raise duties beyond the current 84%. LSEG data show that the selloff of U.S. Treasuries accelerated during Asian hours. The 10-year note yield rose to 4.45% this week, a gain of about 45 basis points, which is the largest increase since 2001. There's a clear exodus of U.S. assets. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said that a falling currency and bond markets are never a positive sign. This goes beyond a slowdown in growth and trade uncertainty. In Europe, the STOXX 600 fell nearly 1% in the morning and is expected to drop 1.7% this week. This will be one of the most volatile weeks on record. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei fell 4.3% for the day while stocks in South Korea dropped nearly 1%. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, tried to reassure skeptics at a cabinet meeting held on Thursday by telling them that over 75 countries were interested in starting trade negotiations. Trump expressed his own hope for a deal to be reached with China, which is the world's second largest economy. James Athey said that the outlook is still clouded by more uncertainty today than it was a month earlier. There are so many questions that remain unanswered. U.S. Futures for the S&P 500 & Nasdaq were mostly unchanged on the day. However, trading was highly erratic. Both had traded as low as 2% before rallying up to 1.6%. After Trump's decision to temporarily lower tariffs for many countries on Wednesday, the anxiety over tariffs has caused a new rush into safe havens. The short-term outlook of global risk assets is uncertain due to growth and inflation concerns. Fluid sentiments, and rapid changes in trade and tariff developments are also factors. Vasu Menon said. Fears of a recession The violent U.S. Treasury sale this week, which evoked the COVID era "rush for cash", has reignited concerns about the fragility of the world's largest bond market. LSEG data revealed that the 30-year bond yields increased to 4.90% and are on track for their largest weekly increase since at least 1982. Michael Krautzberger Global CIO Fixed income at Allianz Global Investors said that the current situation in U.S. bonds markets does not reflect inflation concerns. Krautzberger said that the price movement in Treasuries may be reflecting investor concerns about a recession or sharp slowdown of growth, which "would make an unsustainable U.S. Fiscal Outlook even worse." "On the contrary, we may be seeing a rebalancing of institutional investors or deleveraging in leveraged funds." Gold, the most valuable commodity, rose 1.1% to $3.210 per ounce. The oil prices rose again on Friday but are still heading for their second consecutive week of declines due to concerns over a protracted trade war between China and the United States. Brent crude futures rose 1% to $63,97 per barrel.
-
Spot prices have hit a four-year low, and Chinese coal buyers are trying to avoid contracts.
Three sources familiar with the situation said that Chinese coal buyers were trying to renegotiate contracts for long-term purchases, aiming to get better deals on spot markets where prices have fallen to four-year lows. This is adding to the pressure in China's cash-strapped sector. Li Wei, Chairman of Shandong Energy Group (one of China's largest government-owned miners), said in a written statement that the spot market price has fallen below what was previously agreed upon. He said that this "puts pressure on contract fulfillment" in a field where approximately half of the miners operate in the negative. According to the Bohai-Rim Bay Thermal Coal Price Index, the domestic price of China's medium-grade coal with a 5,500 kcal/kg rating was 676 Yuan ($92.31), the lowest price since March 2021. Many end-users in China are reluctant to fulfill their long-term agreements, said a trader based in China who declined to identify himself due to the company's policy. A coal-buying employee at an industrial company said that contracts with the firm would be likely renegotiated, but "if we can't reach an agreement we may have to delay the shipment." China's coal industry has been hit by a warmter than usual winter, which curbed the heating demand. This was coupled with an oversupply on the domestic market. Two industry groups called for a limit to output and imports in February. Sources say that buyers are sticking to contracts with domestic coal miners. Import term agreements, which account for a small part of China's supply, appear to be unaffected. China imported 542,7 million tons of coal, a record. The trader explained that power plants in China typically sign long-term coal contracts covering 20-50% of the total coal they need, and buy the remainder on the spot market. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (a trade association) announced on April 9 that the relevant government departments would be stepping in to guarantee the fulfillment of long-term agreements. The Chinese trader stated that this would improve contract compliance to a certain extent. The short-term impact on prices will be minimal. The demand is too low."
-
Indonesia's social security fund of $48 billion is looking to double its equity exposure
A top official said that Indonesia's social security fund BPJS Ketenagakerjaan (a $48 billion institution) aims to increase the local equity share in its portfolio up to 20% in three years. The recent stock market crash has created room for investing in undervalued stocks, he added. Edwin Ridwan is the director of the state-owned agency's investment development. He said that, since the Indonesian stock market crash, the fund has increased its investment in stocks with large market capitalisation. In an interview, he stated that "these are the conditions in which people sell, if you look at the history, whenever the market overshoots people are sold, and it's a good time to buy." He was referring to the financial crises of 2008 and 1998, as well as the COVID-19 epidemic. "We have started to see a window open for us to increase exposure to equity, as we need more volume and liquidity. With everyone selling, this liquidity is now available." BPJS Ketenagakerjaan has approximately $4.8 billion in assets that it manages directly on the stock exchange or via mutual funds. The majority of the money is invested in bonds. The rest is in deposits and other instruments. Indonesia's stock exchange plunged on its reopening Tuesday, after a long holiday break. This triggered a trading halt of 30 minutes in response to the global panic over U.S. tariffs that were announced just days before. Since then, the market has recovered some of its losses.
-
Northern China is on high alert for Mongolian typhoons
Northern China braces for typhoon like gales over the weekend. Beijing, China's capital, has cancelled major sporting events and closed parks. It also suspended train services. Beijing has warned its 22 million residents to avoid unnecessary travel. China Central Television (CCTV), reported that a powerful current of cold, dry air will sweep through northern provinces on Friday afternoon and continue into the weekend. This wind is expected to be unusually strong, with gusts reaching up to 150 kilometres an hour in some places. It is normal for strong winds to carry sand and dirt from Mongolia at this time of year. Climate change has caused weather conditions to become more extreme. Beijing has issued the first orange alert for 10 years. It is the second highest colour in a four-tier system of gale warnings. The temperature in Beijing could drop by 12 degrees Celsius compared to the previous day, according to CCTV. Meteorologists have warned that some wind speeds may surpass or rival April records from 1951. The state broadcaster said that heavy snowfall is expected in Inner Mongolia and northeast China. Hailstorms could also hit southern China. The half-marathon in Beijing, originally scheduled for Sunday and featuring humanoid robotic runners racing alongside human runners as a showcase of China’s advancements in frontier technology has been postponed a week until April 19. CCTV reported that several passenger train routes in Beijing and the surrounding area were suspended. Authorities have also announced the closure of a number tourist attractions and parks. CCTV reported that more than 4,800 trees in the city have been strengthened or pruned, to reduce their risk of falling. According to the Ministry of Emergency Management, natural disasters in China resulted in direct economic losses of $9.3 billion yuan (about $1.27 billion) during the first two months of the year 2025. $1 = 7.3207 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Ethan Wang, Ryan Woo)
-
In India and Nepal, nearly 100 people have died after heavy rain.
Officials and media reported that nearly 100 people died after heavy rains lashed parts India and Nepal on Wednesday. The weather department predicted further unseasonal rainfall for the region. The Indian Meteorological Department issued a warning on Wednesday for a number of hazards in the country. Heatwave conditions were reported in western areas and thunderstorms were observed in eastern and central regions. According to a senior official of the state's Disaster Management Department, since Wednesday at least 64 people have died as a result of rain-related incidents in the eastern state Bihar. In India's largest state, Uttar Pradesh, local media reported the deaths of more than 20 people. National Disaster Authority officials reported that in Nepal, heavy rain and lightning struck killed at least 8 people. India's weather bureau expects thunderstorms, lightning and gusty wind in central and eastern India until Saturday. In recent years, heatwaves have caused several deaths in summer months. The state-run IMD announced last week that India will experience an April with temperatures above normal in most parts of the country. Reporting by Tanvi Mhta from New Delhi, Jatindra Dash in Bhubaneswar, and Gopal Sharma from Kathmandu. Editing by Kim Coghill
-
Trump's tariff war is a recession alarm
The turbulence caused by U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs has not abated, and the markets are once again in turmoil. Foreign leaders are trying to figure out how to react to this dismantling. The financial markets received a temporary reprieve on Wednesday, when Trump announced that he would pause tariffs for dozens countries for 90-days. Trump's escalating war of words with China, the world's second largest economy, has fueled fears about a recession and more retaliation. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, tried to reassure skeptics at a cabinet meeting held on Thursday by saying that over 75 countries were interested in starting trade negotiations. Trump also expressed his hope for a deal to be reached with China. The uncertainty between now and then has led to some of the most volatile markets since the COVID-19 pandemic. The S&P 500 index closed Thursday 3.5% lower and is now about 15% below its peak in February. Asian indices fell on Friday, following Wall Street's decline. Japan's Nikkei was down almost 5% while Hong Kong stocks are heading for their biggest weekly drop since 2008. LSEG data revealed that the yield on the 10-year bond was set to reach its highest weekly increase since 2001. Bessent, on Thursday, dismissed the new market turmoil by saying that striking deals with other nations would bring certainty. White House: The U.S. has agreed to start formal trade negotiations with Vietnam. Exclusively reported on Friday, the Southeast Asian manufacturing hub was ready to crackdown on Chinese goods that were being shipped via its territory to the United States in order to avoid tariffs. Shigeru Shiba, the Japanese prime minister, has meanwhile set up a task force for trade that is expected to visit Washington, D.C. next week. Taiwan also said that it expects to be part of the first group of trading partners who will hold talks with Washington. CHINA DEAL? Trump imposed higher duties on Chinese imports to punish Beijing for its initial retaliatory move. A White House official confirmed that Trump has now increased tariffs by 145% on Chinese products since taking office. Chinese officials are contacting other trading partners to discuss how to handle the U.S. Tariffs. They have recently spoken to counterparts from Spain, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. Trump told reporters in the White House that he believed the United States and China could reach a deal, but he repeated his claim that Beijing has "really taken the U.S. advantage" for a very long time. "I am sure that we will be able get along very nicely," Trump said. He added that he respected Chinese president Xi Jinping. "He's been my friend for a very long time and I believe that we will end up working something out that is good for both countries." China has restricted the import of Hollywood movies, a major American export, after rejecting what it called Washington's threats and blackmail. The U.S. tariff freeze does not extend to Canada or Mexico. Their goods still face 25% fentanyl tariffs, unless they meet the rules of origin set forth in the U.S. Mexico Canada trade agreement. Goldman Sachs has estimated that 45% of the time a recession will occur due to the continued hostilities between the three largest U.S. trading partners. According to researchers at Yale University, even with the rollback the average U.S. import duty rate is still the highest it has been in over a century. The pause did not ease the concerns of business leaders about Trump's chaotic trade war, which has resulted in a rise in costs, a fall in orders and a snarled up supply chain. The European Union did, however, announce that it would suspend its first counter-tariffs. Next Tuesday, the EU was due to introduce counter-tariffs against imports from the United States worth about 21 billion Euros ($23 billion), in response to Trump’s 25% tariffs. The EU is still deciding how to react to the U.S. auto tariffs as well as the 10% levy that remains in place. The finance ministers of the 27-country group will discuss on Friday ways to take advantage of the pause in order to reach a deal with Washington, and to coordinate their efforts if that doesn't happen. The European authorities estimate that the U.S. Tariffs would have a total impact on the economy of 0.5% to 1.00 % of GDP. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), the EU's economy is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2018. The U.S. Tariffs could push the EU into a recession.
Andy Home: Trump, tariffs, and tin.
The LME Base Metals Complex got a sneak preview of what to expect.
The threat of similar tariffs on copper caused a transatlantic price gap that was unprecedented.
The micro tariff turmoil is now accompanied by macro tariff turmoil, as the markets are frightened at the prospect of a full blown trade war. This week, the London Metal Exchange index of base metals fell 6% as reciprocal tariffs became a reality.
Only one metal was spared the tariff tsunami. Tin continues to perform better than the rest of LME's pack, boosted by its own supply-chain chaos.
Shocks Rock Tin - Supply
LME's three-month tin increased by 25% in the first quarter 2025, surpassing gold's incredible run.
The tin market has been on a roller coaster ride due to a series of supply shocks. After 18 months, the market fell on the news that the giant Man Maw mine in Myanmar was to restart. Then the market rebounded when Alphamin Resources announced they were closing their Bisie mine in Congo due the the escalating violence in the eastern part of the country.
Tin has risen even more after the devastating earthquake in Myanmar that casts new doubts on Man Maw’s return.
Investors are rushing to get in on the action. The long positions of funds have reached record highs.
The LME stock market is slipping and the time-spreads are tightening. This adds to the volatile mix.
The bulls should also note that China has a plentiful supply of tin. Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a 47% rise in stocks this year, and the 9,872 metric ton stock is at its highest level since September.
COPPER GAP - HOW TO IDENTIFY IT
Since February, when Trump launched a national-security investigation into copper imports, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on the copper trading market.
Arbitrage has been played out between the CME U.S. Customs-cleared Price and the LME Global Price. The market has tried to guess when and how much copper tariffs would be implemented.
The CME's record premium over LME Copper has led to a massive movement of metal into the United States. It remains to be determined how much metal makes it through U.S. Customs before tariffs become effective.
CME prices that were at record highs and the physical market disruption initially revived bullish sentiments. However, LME copper is now below $9,000 per ton as concerns grow over the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs on global manufacturing.
ALUMINIUM PREMIUM ACTION
Tariff trades have been reflected in premiums for regional markets.
Last month, the U.S. Midwest Premium widened to over $900 per ton above the LME Basis Price as the market priced the increase in U.S. Import Tariffs from 10% up to 25%.
The European premiums have dropped sharply in contrast to the U.S., suggesting that physical metal has already been diverted. Analysts were expecting high aluminium prices at the beginning of the year, but the market is now generating mixed signals. Like copper, it has also been affected by reciprocal tariffs.
NICKEL ATTENDS INDONESIA
Nickel spent the first quarter of 2025 stuck in a wide range between $15,000 and $17,000 per ton.
As overproduction in Indonesia floods the refined nickel chain, the price of nickel has fallen.
From 11% in 2024, the amount of Chinese Nickel stored at the LME has increased to over 50%. This metal is a product of Indonesian raw material that was processed in China. Indonesia is now producing its own refined metal which can also be found in LME sheds. Even Indonesian operators feel the pinch of the nickel price, which is so low. However, until Indonesia limits its production growth nickel will remain in oversupply.
The question is whether or not the Indonesian flood will continue to wash down into the Class II lower-grade segment of the Nickel market.
All depends on Indonesian margins.
Heavy Stocks Weigh on Heavy Metal
Talking about high stock prices.
Last month, someone cancelled 120,000 tons LME lead stock. However, there was no response from the market in terms of price or time spreads.
Nobody thinks that the physical metal market is short of this much metal. Lead is experiencing the type of LME warehouse arbitrage which comes with an oversupply and elevated stock levels. These stocks have grown from 21,500 to 331,000 tonnes at the beginning of 2023. Lead's price has held well despite the overhang of inventory, but this could be because lead is still in better condition than zinc.
ZINC MINE REBOUND
Zinc has consistently outperformed the LME group since the beginning of the year, despite the fact that exchange stocks have been falling steadily.
The market seems to be more interested in the zinc raw material narrative than its nuanced refine metal dynamics.
In 2024, the mined zinc production will fall by 2.8% on an annual basis. The raw materials supply chain will tighten to the point where smelter charges are negative in the second part of the year.
In 2025, restarts and new mining are expected to produce a significant recovery.
This new wave of mining supply appears to be gaining momentum. The smelter treatment charge, which had fallen to zero in 2024 due to a lack of mined concentrates, has now risen to $35 per ton.
The demand for zinc was flat last year. With little hope of a recovery within the global construction sector, which is a major use of zinc, a higher output from mining will likely lead to an oversupply on the refined metals market.
These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
(source: Reuters)