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Trump and Netanyahu agreed that the US should pressure Iran to reduce oil sales to China.
Axios, citing U.S. officials who were briefed about the issue, reported that President Donald 'Trump' and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed at a White House meeting on Wednesday to work towards reducing Iran’s oil exports. Axios quoted a senior U.S. government official as saying, "We agreed that we would go full force and exert maximum pressure on Iran, such as regarding Iranian oil sales to China." China's Foreign Ministry did not respond immediately to a request for comment on Sunday, which was the first day of the Lunar New Year holiday. China is responsible for over 80% of Iran’s oil exports. Iran's oil revenues would be affected if this trade were to decrease. U.S. diplomats and Iranians held nuclear talks last week through Omani mediators in an effort to revive diplomacy. This was after the U.S. President positioned a 'naval flotilla' in the region as the American military prepared for possible sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran. Reporting by Lisa Baertlein, Los Angeles; Additional reporting by Che pan and Ryan Woo, Beijing; Editing and Sergio Non by Diane Craft and Sergio Non
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New Zealand prepares for heavy rain and severe gales following floods that killed one person
New Zealand's forecaster warned Sunday of intensifying heavy rains and severe 'gales' for the country's North Island. This comes a day after flooding that was linked to the death of a single person led to power outages and road collapses, as well as home evacuations. The weather forecaster stated that "a significant low deepens today east of the North Island, bringing severe gales and heavy rain to the eastern, middle, and southern North Island." On its website, the weather service said that the worst of the storm was expected to arrive late Sunday. This would be followed by a gradual easing on Monday. Heavy rains began 'bashing large areas of the country Friday and causing the flooding. The authorities declared a state-of-emergency on Sunday for the Otorohanga District, a hard hit agricultural region with about 10,000 residents, located 180 km south of Auckland, the nation's largest city. On Facebook, the 'Otorohanga district council said that teams of geotechnical engineers "spent last night assessing slips" and checking the structural stability of roads in the area. Powerco reported on its website that 2,452 homes remained without electricity on the North Island. Authorities reported that a man died Saturday in his car, apparently drowned by floodwaters. They also said that 80 people had been evacuated to an emergency center. Images shared on social media showed vast semirural neighborhoods submerged, and sections of road that had collapsed where floodwaters receded. Reporting by Sam McKeith, Sydney Editing Rod Nickel
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Judge rules that Exxon Mobil may sue the California Attorney General for defamation regarding recycling
The federal judge rejected the California Attorney General Rob Bonta’s request to dismiss Exxon Mobil’s lawsuit accusing Bonta of defamation for criticizing Exxon Mobil’s?advanced? plastics recycling initiatives. Bonta claimed that he had immunity from suit because he criticised Exxon while in his official capacity of Attorney General and within the "heartland' of his employment duties. The Beaumont, Texas judge said that whether Bonta criticised Exxon with good faith is a factual question to be decided later. Truncale said he had no jurisdiction to hear the claims made against the Sierra Club, Baykeeper Heal the Bay, and Surfrider Foundation. Bonta's Office did not respond immediately to requests for comment. This campaign of lies aimed at derailing our advanced recycling business has to stop. "We refuse to allow others to attack our reputation and technologies?for financial and political gains," said an Exxon spokesperson in a press release. Exxon is increasingly willing to defend itself against critics who claim that its operations are harmful to the climate or increase greenhouse gas emissions. In January 2025 the company based in the Houston suburb of Spring, Texas sued Bonta, almost four months after California filed a lawsuit accusing Exxon for decades of lying about the limitations on recycling. Exxon manufactures polymers that are used to create single-use plastics. Bonta, a Democrat from California, objected Exxon’s promotion of their advanced recycling technology. This process converts hard-to recycle plastic into fuel. REVIEW SOME CHALLENGING STATEMENTS Exxon alleged that Bonta had made 14 statements in interviews, on-line posts, and other public appearances. Three statements claimed that Exxon’s recycling plan "was not based on truth", that plastic waste "piled up" in Houston, despite recycling efforts and that only 5% of U.S.?plastic?waste was recycled, while the remainder polluted the environment, waters, oceans and wildlife. Two of these statements were taken from an interview. In a 46 page decision, Truncale stated that it "wouldn't be unfair" for the statements to be reviewed as possible defamation, because they clearly involved Exxon or were based on Texas-based sources. The judge stated that Bonta's immunity as an official "depends on whether his statements are objectively false." He added that Bonta made a statement in an email with a link to a fundraising campaign, and that "campaigning was not Bonta’s job." Truncale's appointment to the bench was made in 2019 by Republican president Donald Trump. Jonathan Stempel, New York; David Gregorio, Matthew Lewis and Matthew Lewis.
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Italian PM Meloni offers debt suspension to African states affected by climate shock
Giorgia meloni, the Italian prime minister, said that Italy and their 'African partners' had centered their recent talks on a re-evaluation of the continent's?debt burden. Rome offered countries a chance for them to suspend payments when they are hit by extreme weather events. Meloni, at the end of the second Italy-Africa meeting in Addis Ababa, said: "Today we once again focused on a central issue for?Africa which is debt." "We launched a wide initiative on debt conversion for joint development project. We are adding debt suspension clauses to?this for nations that have been affected by extreme weather events. Meloni will attend the plenary of the 39th meeting of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of?African Union on Saturday in Addis-Abeba. She didn't give any?details about how the suspension mechanism proposed would work, or which states might?take it up. Italy's foreign policy has placed a high priority on cooperation with African nations, notably through its "Mattei Plan," whose goal, according to Rome, is to create long-term partnerships for energy, agriculture, and infrastructure. (Reporting and editing by Tomaszjanowski)
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Mali renews Barrick Mining’s Loulo licence for another 10 years
Mali's military leader said in a Friday statement that the government had approved a draft decree renewing Barrick Mining Loulo's gold mining permit for another 10 years. Mali, Africa's largest gold producer, settled a dispute with Barrick in November over profit-sharing, control and ownership of the Loulo-Gounkoto complex of gold mines after two years' negotiations. The dispute was sparked by 2023 mining codes that increased taxes and increased state stakes in projects. Barrick has agreed to withdraw from the World Bank’s dispute tribunal its arbitration case, while Mali said that it would release all employees of the Canadian company, drop all charges and give operational control to the Canadian miner. Barrick conducted a feasibility study as part of the permit renewal. The study identified economically viable reserves that could support six years of open-pit mining or 16 years of underground mines. Gross annual production is estimated to be 420,920oz, according to the statement. Loulo-Gounkoto, located in western Mali, is the 'largest producer in the country and Barrick's most lucrative mine. It will generate almost $900,000,000 in revenue by 2024. (Reporting and writing by Mali Newsroom; Editing and proofreading by David Gregorio).
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Sources say Valero, a US refiner, will import up to 6 million barrels Venezuelan crude oil in March.
Valero Energy will buy up to 6.5 millions barrels of Venezuelan oil in March for its Gulf Coast refining plants, making it 'the top foreign refiner since the United States captured Nicolas Maduro, in January. Valero is one of the first U.S. oil refiners that resumed imports after the United States signed a landmark $2 billion oil deal with Venezuela's interim government, and started to ease sanctions. If Valero can buy 10 or more cargoes of Venezuelan crude next month, which is equivalent to 210,000 barrels a day, then it will surpass U.S. oil giant Chevron in the United States as the largest refiner. This would be the highest amount of Venezuelan crude oil Valero has processed since the United States sanctioned Venezuela's oil industry in January 2019. Sources told us last month that Chevron, which is the only U.S. oil company producing in Venezuela, will increase its exports to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March from 220,000 in January. Chevron refines about half of its exports in its refineries and sells the remainder to other U.S. refining companies. Valero receives a large share of the Venezuelan oil that Chevron sells to U.S. refining companies. Six sources claim that Chevron will supply Valero most of the oil the refiner plans to import in March. Valero also has negotiated a few?cargoes with trading houses, including Trafigura. Trafigura was the first company authorized by the U.S. Government last month to trade Venezuelan oil alongside Chevron. According to a shipping schedule seen by the. Sources warned that the loading schedules are not finalized, and may still be revised. The sources spoke under condition of anonymity in order to discuss confidential information. Vitol, Trafigura and Trafigura have declined to make any comments. Chevron PDVSA and Chevron did not respond immediately to requests for comments. A spokesperson for Valero referred to remarks made by executive Randy Hawkins following the release of its fourth quarter earnings on January 29, 2019. Hawkins said that Valero is in discussions with Venezuelan oil sellers and expects it to be a large portion of the heavy-crude purchased in February and march. Valero had a long-term agreement with PDVSA to purchase crude oil before U.S. sanctioned. Valero’s total refinery capacity for Venezuelan crude was around 240,000 bpd, before the expansion of its 435,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery, scheduled to take place in 2023. Hawkins stated that the company expects to now be able to?process a much greater?volume? of Venezuelan crude oil. VENEZUELA IMPORTS RAMP UP The United States Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stated in Caracas that Venezuela's oil exports and production are expected to increase "dramatically" in the next few months. After production cuts were reversed last month, the country's oil output reached 1 million barrels per day (bpd) this month. Exports jumped to 800,000 bpd during January. Wright, NBC News' correspondent on Thursday, said that oil sales in Venezuela under U.S. management have reached $1 billion since Maduro was captured. Another $5 billion will be deposited into a U.S. controlled fund over the next few months. Since January, the United States has issued 'general licenses' authorizing oil exports to Venezuela, fuel supplies, equipment for oil and natural gas production, oilfield extensions, and new investments. According to three sources, Valero is considering purchasing oil directly from PDVSA using the new authorizations. This could allow them to increase their volumes. PDVSA has so far refused to sell to companies that do not have individual U.S. licensing, as there are still questions about what is allowed and what is prohibited, according to sources.
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Holiday schedule for US economic and other data
Presidents Day, which falls on February 16, will impact the schedule for the release of major economic, energy and commodities reports in Washington for the week beginning February 15. The schedule is below. The times are in GMT/EST. Treasury announcements may be subject to change. Monday, February 16, 2019 Presidents Day. Closed: Federal government offices, Federal Reserve and International?Monetary Fund, stock and Bond markets. Tuesday, February 17, 2019 National Association of Home Builders releases U.S. Housing Market Index, February, 1000/1500 Conference Board releases Employment Trends, January 1000/1500. Rescheduled event from February 9. Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases weekly U.S. Export Inspections for Grains, Oilseeds, 1110/1600. Note: this week's inspections are delayed from Monday because of the holiday. Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Due to the holiday, this sale has been delayed. National Oilseed Processors Association releases U.S. monthly soya crushings, 1120/1700 Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Wednesday, February 18, Mortgage Bankers Association releases weekly Mortgage Application Survey, 0700/1200 Redbook releases weekly retail sales index 0855/1355. Note: this is a delayed update from Tuesday. Commerce Dept. Issues Durable Goods Report for December. Housing Starts Report for December. 0830/1330. Note: The Housing Starts report includes initial November estimates Federal Reserve releases Industrial Production for January, 0915/1415 Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Treasury Department issues Treasury International Capital Report for December, 16:00/2100 American Petroleum Institute releases weekly national petroleum reports, 1630/2130. Due to the holiday, Tuesday's report has been delayed. Thursday, February 19, 2019 Weekly Jobless Claims Reports by the Labor Dept. Weekly Jobless Claims Reports, 0830/1330 Commerce Dept. releases Advance Economic Indicators for December; International Trade?for December, 0830/1330 Commerce Dept. releases Advance Economic Indicators (AED) for December; International trade?for December 0830/1330 National Association of Realtors releases Pending Home Sales for the Month of January, 1000/1500 Energy Information Administration (EIA), 1030/1530, releases weekly U.S. Underground Natural Gas Stocks. Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Freddie Mac issues weekly U.S. mortgage rates, 1200/1700 EIA releases weekly petroleum stock and output data, 1200/1700. NOTE: time change from Wednesday due to holiday. Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Federal Reserve releases weekly balance sheet 1630/2130 Friday, February 20, 2019 Commerce Dept. No time limit is set for the Permit Revisions issued by Commerce Dept. NOTE: Report will include the initial November estimates. Commerce Department issues an advance (first estimate) of U.S. Q4 Gross Domestic Product; issues Personal Income for December, 0830/1330 Commerce?Dept. USDA Releases Weekly Export Sales, 0830/1330. Due to the holiday, export sales are released on Fridays. Commerce Department releases Single-Family Home Sales for December, 1000/1500. Commerce Department releases Single-Family Homes Sales for December, 1000/1500. Report will include November initial estimates Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. USDA Cattle on Feed monthly, 1500/2000
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CORRECTED - S&P 500 slightly down as inflation and tech drop
The S&P 500 barely closed higher on Friday. Technology and communications services were down due to lingering fears of AI disruption, but equity markets gained support from optimism that cooling inflation data will support Federal Reserve rate cuts. The CME Group's FedWatch tool showed that U.S. consumer price increases were lower than expected in January. This led traders to increase the probability of a 25-basis point cut in interest rates in June from 48.9% to 52.3%. This is a very good number. This suggests we are still far from the Fed's 2% target, but that inflation is not increasing. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, New York. Preliminary data shows that the S&P 500 rose 2.32 points or 0.03% to 6,835.08 while the Nasdaq Composite fell 52.04 points or 0.23% to 22,545.11. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 47.44 points or 0.10% to 49,499.42. Recent equity markets have retreated from record highs as fears about disruption by artificial intelligence fuelled a'selloff' in sectors from software to insurance and trucking companies. On Friday, the S&P 500 index for software and services closed at 0.9% while the S&P 500 technology sector dropped 0.5%. Friday's inflation data encouraged investor hopes for Fed rate cuts after Wednesday's stronger-than-expected January jobs data sowed doubts. Phil Orlando, the chief market strategist of Federated Hermes, predicted that trading would be more volatile in the coming months. This was in light of AI concerns, looming mid-term elections for the United States in November, and Kevin Warsh, who is expected to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell in May. Orlando said that the inflation data was better than anticipated and the trend continues to be lower. He said that historically, when a Fed leader transition occurs in a midterm year, it has caused the market to hit "double-digit" air pockets. Megacap tech'stocks' were weak, with Applied Materials and Apple Inc. providing a big boost. The S&P 500 index's 11 major industries were led by the defensive utilities and real estate sectors. The healthcare sector also saw a rise in shares of Dexcom, Moderna and other companies after they reported their fourth quarter earnings. Shares of Applied Materials surged after the company forecast revenue and profits for its second quarter that exceeded Wall Street's expectations. Arista Networks, a provider of networking equipment, also gained in the session as it forecasted annual revenues that were above expectations. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro'said that there was no basis for reports that the 'administration planned to reduce steel and aluminium tariffs. Steel Dynamics and Nucor were among the steelmakers that came under pressure. Alcoa shares fell, as did Century Aluminum. Reporting by Sinead carew in New York; Johann Cherian, Twesha dikshit and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru, and editing by Shilpa Majumdar and Pooja desai.
Andy Home: Trump, tariffs, and tin.
The LME Base Metals Complex got a sneak preview of what to expect.
The threat of similar tariffs on copper caused a transatlantic price gap that was unprecedented.
The micro tariff turmoil is now accompanied by macro tariff turmoil, as the markets are frightened at the prospect of a full blown trade war. This week, the London Metal Exchange index of base metals fell 6% as reciprocal tariffs became a reality.
Only one metal was spared the tariff tsunami. Tin continues to perform better than the rest of LME's pack, boosted by its own supply-chain chaos.
Shocks Rock Tin - Supply
LME's three-month tin increased by 25% in the first quarter 2025, surpassing gold's incredible run.
The tin market has been on a roller coaster ride due to a series of supply shocks. After 18 months, the market fell on the news that the giant Man Maw mine in Myanmar was to restart. Then the market rebounded when Alphamin Resources announced they were closing their Bisie mine in Congo due the the escalating violence in the eastern part of the country.
Tin has risen even more after the devastating earthquake in Myanmar that casts new doubts on Man Maw’s return.
Investors are rushing to get in on the action. The long positions of funds have reached record highs.
The LME stock market is slipping and the time-spreads are tightening. This adds to the volatile mix.
The bulls should also note that China has a plentiful supply of tin. Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a 47% rise in stocks this year, and the 9,872 metric ton stock is at its highest level since September.
COPPER GAP - HOW TO IDENTIFY IT
Since February, when Trump launched a national-security investigation into copper imports, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on the copper trading market.
Arbitrage has been played out between the CME U.S. Customs-cleared Price and the LME Global Price. The market has tried to guess when and how much copper tariffs would be implemented.
The CME's record premium over LME Copper has led to a massive movement of metal into the United States. It remains to be determined how much metal makes it through U.S. Customs before tariffs become effective.
CME prices that were at record highs and the physical market disruption initially revived bullish sentiments. However, LME copper is now below $9,000 per ton as concerns grow over the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs on global manufacturing.
ALUMINIUM PREMIUM ACTION
Tariff trades have been reflected in premiums for regional markets.
Last month, the U.S. Midwest Premium widened to over $900 per ton above the LME Basis Price as the market priced the increase in U.S. Import Tariffs from 10% up to 25%.
The European premiums have dropped sharply in contrast to the U.S., suggesting that physical metal has already been diverted. Analysts were expecting high aluminium prices at the beginning of the year, but the market is now generating mixed signals. Like copper, it has also been affected by reciprocal tariffs.
NICKEL ATTENDS INDONESIA
Nickel spent the first quarter of 2025 stuck in a wide range between $15,000 and $17,000 per ton.
As overproduction in Indonesia floods the refined nickel chain, the price of nickel has fallen.
From 11% in 2024, the amount of Chinese Nickel stored at the LME has increased to over 50%. This metal is a product of Indonesian raw material that was processed in China. Indonesia is now producing its own refined metal which can also be found in LME sheds. Even Indonesian operators feel the pinch of the nickel price, which is so low. However, until Indonesia limits its production growth nickel will remain in oversupply.
The question is whether or not the Indonesian flood will continue to wash down into the Class II lower-grade segment of the Nickel market.
All depends on Indonesian margins.
Heavy Stocks Weigh on Heavy Metal
Talking about high stock prices.
Last month, someone cancelled 120,000 tons LME lead stock. However, there was no response from the market in terms of price or time spreads.
Nobody thinks that the physical metal market is short of this much metal. Lead is experiencing the type of LME warehouse arbitrage which comes with an oversupply and elevated stock levels. These stocks have grown from 21,500 to 331,000 tonnes at the beginning of 2023. Lead's price has held well despite the overhang of inventory, but this could be because lead is still in better condition than zinc.
ZINC MINE REBOUND
Zinc has consistently outperformed the LME group since the beginning of the year, despite the fact that exchange stocks have been falling steadily.
The market seems to be more interested in the zinc raw material narrative than its nuanced refine metal dynamics.
In 2024, the mined zinc production will fall by 2.8% on an annual basis. The raw materials supply chain will tighten to the point where smelter charges are negative in the second part of the year.
In 2025, restarts and new mining are expected to produce a significant recovery.
This new wave of mining supply appears to be gaining momentum. The smelter treatment charge, which had fallen to zero in 2024 due to a lack of mined concentrates, has now risen to $35 per ton.
The demand for zinc was flat last year. With little hope of a recovery within the global construction sector, which is a major use of zinc, a higher output from mining will likely lead to an oversupply on the refined metals market.
These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
(source: Reuters)