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What options does the EU have in response to Trump's tariffs?

The European Commission's President Ursula von der Leyen stated on Tuesday that the European Union has a "strong" plan to retaliate for tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. However, she preferred a negotiated resolution.

Trump's administration imposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum in March, and increased duties on automobiles will come into effect on Thursday. Trump will announce plans on Wednesday for what he calls "reciprocal duties".

In 2023, the United States and European Union will have the largest trade relationship in the world, with a combined trading volume of 1.6 trillion euro ($1.7 trillion) worth of goods and service. This is almost 30% of all global trade.

According to Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, Washington has more to worry about in a tariff war on goods than Brussels. U.S. imports of goods into the EU will total 334 billion euro by 2024, compared to 532 billion euro of EU exports.

Here are some possible EU responses.

TARIFFS RETALIATORY

The European Commission may propose retaliatory duties on goods. These can only be blocked by a majority of 15 EU members representing 65% or the EU's population.

It has already laid out a two-stage response plan to the steel and aluminum tariffs. It says that it will first restore the measures taken in 2018, when Trump first imposed import tariffs for metals. These were later suspended by Joe Biden. The counter-measures were originally due to take effect on Tuesday but were delayed until mid-April by the Commission to give it more time to decide which U.S. products to target.

France and Italy, two wine exporters, are concerned about the taxation of bourbon. This comes after Trump had threatened to retaliate by imposing 200% tariffs on European alcohol.

The Commission has also drawn up a list of U.S. imported goods, including clothing, meat, dairy products, and wines, worth 21 billion euros. It plans to reduce this to 18 billion euro for the second tranche of tariffs that was originally scheduled to begin in mid-April.

The EU has yet to announce what it will do in response either to the new reciprocal taxes or the new automobile tariffs.

Anti-coercive Instrument

The EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument, which entered into force in 2023, gives the bloc a much wider range of options to act against countries who put economic pressure on EU member states to change their policy.

The EU can also limit the access of companies from third countries to tenders or affect services or investment.

The United States trades goods with the EU at a deficit, but it trades services at a surplus, which includes digital services like those provided by Amazon, Microsoft or Uber.

The EU may also limit the protection of intellectual properties rights, restrict financial services companies' access to EU market and hinder companies' ability place agrifood and chemicals in the EU.

ACI was first proposed in 2021 to respond to EU criticisms that the Trump Administration and China used trade as a tool for political purposes. According to Lithuanian officials China targeted Lithuania after it allowed Taiwan set up a virtual embassy in Vilnius.

The law allows the Commission to investigate possible cases of coercion for up to four month. If the Commission finds that foreign countries' measures are coercive, it will propose this to EU member states, who have eight to ten weeks to confirm its findings.

This requires a majority of EU member states, which is a much higher standard than the one required to apply retaliatory duties.

Normaly, the Commission will then consult the foreign country in order to stop the coercion. If this fails, it can then adopt EU response measures within six months, which will enter into force within three months.

The entire process could take up to a year. $1 = 0.9275 Euros (Reporting and Editing by Peter Graff, Additional Reporting by Leigh Thomas)

(source: Reuters)