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In October-December, India's economy grew at 6.2%.
Data released on Friday revealed that India's economy expanded by 6.2% between October and December, slightly below expectations, but faster than the previous quarter due to increased consumer and government spending. The increase in gross domestic products was lower than both the 6.8% estimate by the central bank and the 6.3% projected by the analysts. The fifth-largest economy in the world grew by 5.6% during the last quarter. Comments GAURA SEN GUPTA INDIA ECONOMIST IDFC FIRST BANK MUMBAI The Q3 GDP is "marginally higher than our expectations". The growth momentum is a result of a slight improvement in profit growth for listed companies and a moderated input cost. The agriculture sector also saw a significant increase in growth, largely due to a robust Kharif crop production. On the demand side, growth in private consumption has picked up, reflecting a revival of rural demand. After incorporating Q3 GDP for FY25, we still expect FY25 to have a full-year growth rate of 6.2%-6.3%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will continue to cut rates in a small-scale cycle, with a further 25bps to $50bps cut by 2025. The pressure of depreciation on the INR (rupee), will keep rate-cut cycles short, in our opinion. HARRY CHAMBERS, ASSISTANT ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS, LONDON The economy, as a whole, is still relatively soft compared to recent Indian standards. The RBI's shift from controlling inflation to supporting economic growth should help to boost the economy. The central bank's further loosening of monetary policy, which we expect will increase household consumption and investments, is expected to boost both this week. MADHAVI ARORA - CHIEF ECONOMIST EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL MUMBAI The GDP forecasting exercise has become extremely dynamic due to massive upward revisions of past quarters and years. The implied 4QFY25 estimate is 7.7% based on the NSO's current quarterly estimates for FY25TD. This is a big number given the macrodynamics of the time. JAHNAVI PRIBHAKAR, ECONOMIST BANK OF BARODA MUMBAI The GVA (gross added value) growth in Q3 was in line with expectations, and the GDP growth surprised positively." A strong 6,5% growth for the FY25 is much higher than RBI's estimation. This is a positive. The fourth quarter is likely to see a further recovery, backed by the consumption cycle and a rebound in the investment cycle. The growth outlook is also boosted by the expectation of rate cuts. UPASNA BHARDWAJ CHIEF ECONOMIST KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK MUMBAI The FY25 GDP figures have been resilient despite the sharp revisions upwards of the two previous years. This is largely because the revisions upwards in the second quarter. We expect the FY25 GDP to be lower by 20-30 basis points than the estimate of the Central Statistics Office. We expect a growth rate of 6.4% in FY26, but the outlook is still heavily clouded by downside risks due to global trade uncertainty. RADHIKA RAO SENIOR ECONOMIST DBS BANK SINGAPORE The GDP numbers came in close to expectations. The data showed a turn-around, with better demand owing to rural FMCG sales, and the festive season, while urban demand stagnated due to modest wage increases. Policymakers can maintain a dovish stance, as the trend growth rate for FY25 is likely to slow down to 6% this year, from the revised 9% pace of FY24. Food disinflation has also set in, and successive macroprudential measures have been taken to ease restrictions. "We anticipate a rate reduction in April with a shift to an accommodative stance." SAKSHI GUPTA - PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST HDFC BANK GURUGRAM The GDP growth in Q3 indicates that "the cycle bottom is likely behind us, as growth showed signs improvement" in the quarter. The improvement in agricultural performance and manufacturing was a major contributor. Demand-side growth was close to 7% primarily due to the recovery of rural demand, but investment growth remained soft. We expect growth of 6.6% in FY26, compared with 6.5% in FY25. This growth figure is a relief to the central bank. However, due to global headwinds we expect another rate reduction in April 2025. DEVENDRA KUMARPANT, CHIEF ECONOMIST, INDIA RATINGS, AND RESEARCH GURUGRAM The ability to achieve 6.5% growth by FY25 will depend on the growth of each component, especially in consumption expenditures and investments. KUNAL KUNDU, INDIA ECONOMIST, SOCIETE GENERALE, BENGALURU The 4Q24 GDP figures are difficult to analyze objectively because of the major upward revisions of previous-year data. Despite the changes, the consensus estimate for the Q4 real GDP growth was 6.2% based on unrevised statistics. Interesting, the major revisions to consumption data suggest that "the existing widespread narrative of weak domestic demand (including ours), based on non-revised GDP and multiple high frequency statistics was not entirely accurate". Even the RBI and the most recent economic survey got it wrong about the domestic demand story. "Based on the latest data, we will continue to maintain our current growth forecast for the FY25, which is 6.3%, slower than official second-advance estimate expectations of 6.5%." (Reporting by Swati Bhat and Siddhi Nayak in Mumbai, Manvi Pant, Kashish Tandon, Hritam Mukherjee, Yagnoseni Das, Anuran Sadhu in Bengaluru, compiled by Indranil Sarkar; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)
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INSTANT VIEW: India's economy grew 6.2% between October and December
Data released on Friday revealed that India's economy expanded by 6.2% between October and December, slightly below expectations, but faster than the previous quarter due to increased consumer spending and government spending. The increase in gross domestic products was lower than both the 6.3% growth projected by pollsters and the 6.8% estimate from the central bank. The fifth-largest economy in the world grew by 5.8% during the last quarter. Comments GAURA SEN GUPTA INDIA ECONOMIST IDFC FIRST BANK MUMBAI The Q3 GDP is "marginally higher than our expectations". The growth momentum is a result of a slight improvement in profit growth for listed companies and a moderated input cost. The agriculture sector also saw a significant increase in growth, largely due to a robust Kharif crop production. On the demand side, growth in private consumption has picked up, reflecting a revival of rural demand. HARRY CHAMBERS, ASSISTANT ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS, LONDON The economy, as a whole, is still relatively soft compared to recent Indian standards. The Reserve Bank of India has shifted its focus from controlling inflation to supporting economic growth. This should help to boost the economy. The central bank's further loosening of monetary policy, which we expect to happen, and the reversal this week of the stricter lending restrictions that were introduced late in 2023 will, in our opinion, boost consumption, especially among households. Reporting by Siddhi Nyak in Mumbai; compiled by Indranil Skar in Bengaluru, edited by Shilpa Majumdar
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Siemens Energy will supply Rolls-Royce equipment for small reactors
Siemens Energy announced on Friday that it had entered into a partnership which is expected to make Siemens Energy the exclusive provider of conventional technology to future small modular reactors (SMRs) built by Rolls-Royce SMR. Siemens Energy will supply steam turbines and generators as well as "other auxiliary system" to Rolls-Royce SMR for its planned Generation 3+ modular nucleopower plants. The agreement is expected to be finalized by the end of 2025. Global nuclear energy providers are developing so-called SMRs to create power plant technologies that are easily replicable, quicker and cheaper to deploy compared to traditional large-scale units. Karim Amin, a member of the Siemens Energy board of directors, said: "We're experiencing a global revival in nuclear energy." Small modular reactors are a crucial part of the nuclear technology that is being used by many countries to produce electricity with low emissions. Rolls-Royce SMR, which is owned by Rolls-Royce in majority while Qatar, Constellation Energy (as well as BNF Resources) and Qatar hold minor stakes, is one of Britain's shortlisted companies to develop SMRs. The Czech electricity producer CEZ announced in October that it would purchase a minority share in Rolls-Royce SMR. These reactors are capable of producing up to 470 Megawatts and can power around 1.1 Million households. (Reporting and editing by Rachel More, with Christoph Steitz)
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ArcelorMittal South Africa will cease production of long steel by April
ArcelorMittal South Africa announced on Friday that it will stop producing long steel by April of this year, after talks with the government did not succeed in preventing the closure. The closure of the long-sealed operations is expected to affect 3,500 direct and indirectly employed workers. This will be due to the lack of domestic demand, competition from scrap metal recycling mini-mills in the area and imports from China. ArcelorMittal South Africa’s long steel production operations produce rails, rods, and bars that are used in construction, mining, and manufacturing. ArcelorMittal SA, the world's second largest steelmaker, has announced that it will begin shutting down their blast furnaces during the first week in March. It added that the last steel would be produced by late March or earlyApril. The final transition to care and maintenance is fully implemented by the second quarter 2025. The company announced on February 6 that it would delay the closure of its long-sealing operations due to talks with the government. The statement said that "despite extensive discussion, the structural elements leading to a wind-down of long steel remain unaddressed." "We could not avoid the negative impact that will have on the economy." ArcelorMittal South Africa asked the government to remove an export tax it claimed favored recyclers. The company also asked the government to impose duties on imports and to negotiate lower freight rail and electricity costs. The longs business's loss on operations doubled from 600 million rand in 2024 to 1.1 billion Rand ($59.46 millions) by 2024. ArcelorMittal South Africa announced a larger headline loss of 5.1 billion rand in 2024 compared to 1.89 billion rand a year earlier. $1 = 18.4996 rand (Reporting and editing by David Evans, Clarence Fernandez).
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The roofs of La Reunion are blown off by Cyclone Garance, which has hit the French island.
On Friday, Cyclone Garance hit the French overseas territory La Reunion at top winds speeds of 155 km/h (96mph), destroying roofs and preventing residents from accessing drinking water and electricity. Patrice Latron said that there had been no deaths reported on the island. The cyclone hit land in the north of Madagascar, an island located in the Indian Ocean. Meteo France, the weather agency, said that it left the southwest part of the island a few hours later. Prefecture officials said that 180,000 households, or 42% of customers with the electric utility, had lost electricity and that nearly 10% did not have access to water. Prefecture announced that the storm was over and the alert level had been reduced from purple to red. Rescue workers were able to leave their shelters, assess the damage and begin helping those who had been affected. Authorities expect rough weather to continue until the end of today. Meteo France reported that top winds were down to 130 kph. However, higher gusts are possible in the southwest part of the island. Heavy rains, however, remain a greater risk. Authorities in nearby Mauritius reopened their airport after the threat of the storm abated. Reporting by Ammu Kanampilly from Nairobi, and Ingrid Melander in Paris, and Sudip K. Gupta, Writing by Ingrid Melander; Editing and proofreading by Christopher Cushing Stephen Coates Frances Kerry
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Russian diamond producer Alrosa announces a 77.3% profit drop for the full year
Alrosa, the diamond-producing company in Russia that has been hit by sanctions, reported on Friday a drop of 77.3% on its 2024 net profits year-on-year. The revenue was 239.1 billion Russian roubles. In January 2024, the Group of Seven (G7) banned the direct importation of Russian diamonds. The European Union and G7 then banned the import of diamonds from Russia via third-country sources. Alrosa has been subject to U.S. sanctions by the United States since 2022. Alrosa produces the most rough diamonds in terms of volume. In 2024, revenue was down by 25.9% on an annual basis. Many companies are concerned about the rising cost of borrowing. Some have reduced their investments, which could slow Russia's growth. Economic growth Alrosa's net debt increased to 107.9 bn roubles by the end of 2024 from 36.1 bn roubles one year before, and its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio rose from 0.26x to 1.37x. Alrosa reported that diamond reserves rose from 84.3 billion to 129.9 milliards of roubles in 2023. In November, CEO Pavel Marinychev said that Alrosa has accumulated enough financial cushion in order to survive the "economic crisis". "deep crisis" The global diamond industry is a lucrative business, and the government may occasionally purchase diamonds through a fund to support it. Alrosa announced plans to reduce labour costs, cut some of its 35,000 employees and suspend the development of its least-profitable assets. $1 = 88.0000 Russian Roubles (Reporting and writing by Anastasia Lyrchikova, Alexander Marrow and Lucy Papachristou; editing by Andrew Osborn).
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Russia arrests two church leaders over an alleged Ukrainian plot against a Putin-linked priest
The Russian FSB security agency said that it arrested two church leaders on suspicion of plotting the murder of a priest who was close to President Vladimir Putin, on Ukrainian intelligence's instructions. Kyiv did not immediately respond to the allegation. Tikhon Shevkunov (66), who Russian media has described as "Putin’s confessor" for years, was the alleged target. Since the late 1990s, he has been a close friend of Putin. The Kremlin says the two men are well acquainted. Shevkunov will be appointed as the Metropolitan of Crimea in 2023. This peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine, is the highest church rank. In a press release, the FSB announced that it had arrested two men who it claimed were recruited by Ukrainian military intelligence in mid-2024 on Telegram messenger. The FSB reported that it seized two fake Ukrainian passports and an improvised bomb. Nikita Ivankovich is a Russian priest at a Moscow church. Denis Popovich was Shevkunov’s assistant. He is a Ukrainian, born in Chernivtsi. Authorities released videos showing both men confessing. The men spoke slowly and it wasn't clear how they had obtained the confessions. Popovich claimed he was recruited to track Shevkunov and that he was threatened with murdering his family if he didn't comply. He claimed he then had to find an accomplice so as to "eliminate Shevkunov". He claimed that the plan was for a bomb to be planted in the residential building of Sretensky Monastery, a 14th century monastery in Moscow where Shevkunov held the position of superior until 2018. Ivankovich confessed that the men were given a homemade bomb to use in the attack. In the video, investigators recovered a box of fake passports and a hidden place in a forest. Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has been responsible for a number assassinations that have occurred in Russia. Most recently, Igor Kirillov, head of Russia's Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops, was killed in December. (Additional reporting from Felix Light and editing by Mark Trevelyan).
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Kosovo Businesses at Risk from Trump's USAID Freeze
Kenan Gashi, a shop owner in Kosovo, saws the limbs of old mannequins and then throws them in machines donated by the U.S. Government that shred the plastic and clean it so that it can be reused. Gashi's business of recycling in Fushe Kosova has been transformed since it received equipment from USAID two years ago. This prompted him to plan to hire more employees. Gashi, however, is now worried. Gashi is worried now. Now, the Trump administration has frozen USAID's funding and is attempting to reduce the agency and U.S. Foreign Aid in line with his "America First Agenda". In a press statement, Trump cited the Kosovo recycling donation in his video as an example of what kind of government expenditures he wanted to cut. Gashi threw plastic pieces into an USAID grinder that had a sticker on it saying "Recycling matters". According to U.S. Government figures, the U.S. is one of Kosovo's most ardent supporters, ever since this small Balkan landlocked country separated from Serbia. The U.S. provided $1.1 billion worth of aid since 2001. GAP, a Pristina based think tank, said that USAID is currently managing 17 projects totaling more than $156m. However it's unclear how much has been actually disbursed. Politicians and residents of Kosovo say that Kosovo is among the poorest countries of Europe, and it still needs urgent aid. The north is plagued by ethnic tensions that persist between the Albanian minority and the Serb majority. The European Union has cancelled more than 12 aid projects, worth at least $150 million, as a direct result of the role played by Kosovo authorities in this conflict. Burim Ejupi, a think tank based in Pristina called Indep, said that the USAID funds will not be frozen. "However ..., each dollar or euro is important to a country in desperate need of them." Funds that were intended to protect marginalised communities, accelerate the transition from coal, a highly polluting fuel, to renewable energy and strengthen Kosovo's democracy institutions are at risk. The recipients of the funding claim that it has made a positive impact on them and their communities. Qazim, a 38-year-old recycler, searches daily for plastic in the rubbish bins of Pristina, the capital. USAID gave him a small tractor, and a machine to crush plastic. His income has increased from five euros per day to twenty euros. Before the Americans helped, there were times that 10 family members went to bed without eating. Grashtica, surrounded by plastics ready to sell in his workshop, said: "We had nothing to eat." "I'll tell Trump that you are a good person and should help others, especially in Kosovo."
China Steel Exports Worried about Iron Ore Loss in the Month of August
The price of iron ore fell on Friday, and is expected to fall modestly each month due to U.S. trade tensions and rising tariffs.
As of 0250 GMT, the most traded May iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 0.43% to 802 yuan ($110.07), per metric ton.
The contract has fallen by 0.93% in the last month.
The benchmark March ore price on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.89% to $104.15 per ton after losing 0.59% during February.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced on Thursday that his proposed tariffs of 25% on Mexican and Canadian products will go into effect on March 4, along with an additional 10% duty on Chinese goods.
Trump imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports in the first half of this month. This resulted in a total tariff of 20%.
Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs for all imports of steel and aluminum, which has sparked a new round of trade frictions with China.
Vietnam announced a temporary antidumping levy against some Chinese steel products. South Korea, meanwhile, has imposed tariffs provisionally on Chinese steel imports.
According to a report on Thursday, the U.S. tariffs on steel are also likely to disrupt Chinese transshipment, which is estimated at $7 billion. This will undermine a crucial source of sales for China’s struggling steel industry.
The shortcomings of China's trade in scheme, which could lower expenses on non-subsidised items and reduce future expenditure, is increasing pressure on authorities to announce consumer-focused policies that have a long-term impact at China's rubber stamp parliament's annual meeting, beginning on March 5.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar fell 0.42%; hot-rolled coils lost almost 0.5%; wire rods declined 0.34%, and stainless steel gained 0.3%.
Mysteel, a consultancy, reported that inventories of major steel products dropped 2.3% week-on-week, to 5.37 millions tons, but domestic steel demand was steadily recovering.
Coking coal and coke both increased by 0.09% and 0.3 %, respectively.
(source: Reuters)