Latest News
-
Consultancy says Brazil will cut sugar exports to Brazil by 14% due to mills switching to ethanol
Brazil's biggest sugar exporter and producer is expected to reduce shipments by 14.2% in the upcoming 2026/27 - season that begins in April - as mills reroute sugarcane for ethanol production due to high energy prices. Safras estimates total Brazilian sugar exports for the new season including the Center-South, North/Northeast and North/Southeast regions at 29 million metric tonnes, compared with 33.8 million in 2025/26. In a report, the consultancy stated that Brazil's sugar production will fall to 40.33 million tons by 2026/27 from 43.5 million tons during the previous crop. The total ethanol production would rise 10.7%, to 42.58 billions liters, if fuel made from?corn is included. Analyst Mauricio Mauruci of Safras Sugar and Ethanol expects that the Brazilian government will increase the amount of ethanol blended in gasoline in the second half of the year from 30% to 35%. This could lead to a rise in demand for anhydrous alcohol. According to him, every additional percentage point in the blend rate will add 920 millions liters to the fuel mix of Brazil. Brazilian mills are able to adapt their plants based on the market price to produce more sugar, or ethanol. At the moment, ethanol is a more profitable option. ethanol will become even more rewarding if gasoline prices increase. Petrobras, the state-controlled Brazilian oil company, has not yet raised gasoline prices since the beginning of the Iran war. Local gasoline prices are around 40% below import parity. Brazilian President Luiz inacio Lula da So is running for reelection. Safras & Mercado projects that mills will reduce their sugarcane consumption to 47% in the next season, down from 49%. The remainder will be used to produce ethanol.
-
Brazil's central bank expects inflation to remain above target for several years, as rising oil prices boost outlook
Brazil's central bank expects inflation will pick up in the second half of this year, driven largely by higher oil costs due to U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. It also expects it to stay above its 3% goal throughout its forecast period. In its quarterly report on monetary policy, released Thursday, the monetary authorities estimated that 12-month inflation would be 3.1% by the third quarter 2028. This was the farthest projection of theirs. The bank cut interest rates last week, but it was less than expected due to a rise in oil prices caused by the Middle East war. Paulo Picchetti said at a press conference that there is a great deal of uncertainty about the intensity, duration and unfolding of the conflict. The Governor of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galipolo, said that the bank would need time to fully understand the impact of the conflict. He added: "We'll learn more at the next policy meeting." PROJECTS EXCEED THE CENTRAL BBANK GOAL The policymakers believe that the annual inflation rate, which was 4.26% in 2018, will decelerate and fall to 3.6% by the first quarter 2026. However, it is expected to trend higher until the end of the year. Later, it should resume a downward trend "while still remaining above the target". The central bank revealed a 3.3% inflation projection for 2027 in its?report, after announcing last week that it had forecast 3.9% for this year. Last week, the bank began its long-anticipated cycle of easing by reducing rates to 14.75 percent. However, it did not provide any forward guidance. The central bank's monetary policy horizon for the third quarter 2027 was revised upwards by 0.1 percentage point. The report said that the higher oil prices, as well as a revised output gap, were among the factors responsible for the rise. Itau economists stated that oil price forecasts in the report could be "more benign" than other more realistic estimates. They added that the bank may have underestimated upcoming short-term inflation rates. In a client note, they said that "this set of information (which is still subject to change depending upon the 'geopolitical background') limits the scope for an accelerated monetary-easing rate at the April meeting." The central bank has also confirmed its forecast of 1.6% growth in the gross domestic product for this year. (Reporting and editing by Marcela Ayres, Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Andrei Khalip).
-
As Iran crisis drives oil prices above $105
The major stock indexes dipped on Thursday as Brent oil futures rose over $105 per barrel. Iran's denial that it has ever held any kind of talks with the U.S. dimmed hopes for a rapid resolution of the Middle East conflict, which has lasted nearly a month. The U.S. Dollar was also boosted by safe-haven purchases, which pushed yields up. The prospect of a long-term war in the Middle East has sparked concerns about disruptions to energy supplies. Brent futures rose $4.77 to $106.99 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil futures increased $93.64. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, warned Iran to "get serious", about a deal that would end almost four weeks of fighting. Abbas Araqchi, Iran's foreign minister, had said earlier that Tehran was reviewing?U.S. There were no discussions about ending the war, but Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Tehran was reviewing the?U.S. Iran launched multiple missiles against Israel on Thursday. The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which began in late February rattled the global markets, and shut down the Strait of Hormuz - a vital conduit for oil and LNG flows. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, New York. He said that stocks fell as oil prices began to rise again. "Unfortunately, the oil price is driving our market. He said that the rhetoric is still going on and until there is a breakthrough in the talks, the oil price will continue to affect the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 75.50 points or 0.19% to 46,342.69; the S&P 500 declined 43.59 points or 0.68% to 6,547.14; and the Nasdaq Composite was down 216.95 or 1.02% to 21,705.16. The MSCI index of global stocks fell 6.75 points or 0.68% to 988.71. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.64%. South Korea's KOSPI fell 3.2% due to concerns about rising energy prices. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped by 1.9%, and China's blue-chip index fell by 1.3%. Due to the unrest, the Philippines held an unexpected central bank meeting. The head of Germany's central banks said that an ECB interest rate increase next month is "an option". Fears of an inflation shock similar to that in 2022 have caused traders to fully price out the possibility?of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this coming year, which has further supported the dollar. The yield on Germany's 2-year bonds, which is sensitive to the?rate expectation of the European Central Bank, has risen after falling on Wednesday. Bond yields are inversely related to price. The U.S. Treasury yields also rose due to concerns about inflation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield in the United States was up 4.2 basis point at?4.37%. The yield on the two-year bond was up 5.4 basis points at 3.934%. The yield on Japan's 2-year government bond reached its highest level for 30 years earlier, at 1.33%. Traders bet on a Bank of Japan rate increase as soon as next month. The U.S. Dollar?rose? against most major currencies and re-established its?safe-haven appeal. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) rose by 0.1% to $99.75. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.13% to $1.1544. The dollar gained 0.04% against the Japanese yen to reach 159.53. The dollar has risen, and gold has fallen. Spot gold fell 0.89% to $4,465.06 per ounce.
-
Petrobras will boost fuel supply in April via contracts and avoid auctions
Petrobras, Brazil's state-owned oil company, announced on Thursday that it has changed its fuel supply strategy. It will now?offer more fuel to distributors for April deliveries. Petrobras announced that it would supply 70 million liters more of S10 diesel next month and 95 million liters more of gasoline. The extra volumes will be delivered via existing contracts, rather than through diesel and gasoline auctions. Sources said that the change will result in fuel being sold at a lower price than if it was auctioned, and this is helping to keep domestic prices under control despite a recent spike triggered by a U.S./Israeli 'war on Iran. Petrobras had been negotiating additional fuel volume via auctions but abruptly cancelled them when premiums of up to 2.00 Reis ($0.3445-0.3828 per liter) over refinery prices were discovered, according to sources familiar with this matter. The sudden halt of the auctions early last week, without any explanation, heightened supply concerns for the month of April. Oil regulator ANP ordered the oil company to release the volumes. Brazil's government also abolished federal taxes on diesel fuel in an effort to reduce the impact of rising global oil prices. ANP has been fighting price gouging by gas stations. As he runs for re-election in this year, President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva is concerned about the rising fuel prices.
-
Trump warns Iran that the US will keep blowing them off if they don't make a deal
On Thursday, President Donald Trump urged Iran to?make a deal that would end the?U.S. Israeli bombing or face a retaliatory?strike on their country. "They have the opportunity, Iran, to abandon permanently their nuclear ambitions, and to join a different path forward," Trump stated?during an Cabinet meeting at White House. "We'll?see if they want to. If they don’t, we're their worst nightmare. We'll keep blowing them away in the meantime. Trump's remarks came after a senior Iranian official told reporters on Thursday that Washington’s proposal to end nearly four weeks worth of fighting was "unfair and one-sided" but diplomacy continued. Trump claimed that Iranians were in talks with the U.S., and characterized them as 'desperate? to make a deal. Tehran denies these characterizations. He called Iranian officials "great negotiators", and said that he wanted to reach an agreement which would open the Strait of Hormuz, and end Tehran's military ambitions. Trump said that a deal may not come together. He said, "I don’t know if I'll be able do that," about the prospects of a deal. I don't think we would be willing to do it. (Reporting and writing by Steve Holland, Trevor Hunnicutt, editing by Scott Malone).
-
Sources say that Guinea and Emirates Global Aluminium are close to a deal to resolve an asset dispute.
Three people familiar with the matter said that Guinea and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), had reached an agreement which will prevent a looming arbitration over the seizure last year of the miner’s local unit. According to traders and officials, as part of a broader resolution, traders have explored bauxite deals that are linked to the assets seized, including structures where upfront payments on future shipments would be used to settle?EGA claims. The deal is still being finalised. It follows the government taking over Guinea Alumina Corporation, EGA's subsidiary for bauxite, in October, following a dispute about alumina refineries. It then transferred GAC’s assets to state-owned Nimba Mining, and discussed possible bauxite supply to EGA. DEAL CLOSE, TECHNICAL DEADLINES REMAIN Officials from the government confirmed that a deal was close, but several technical details were still unresolved. An expert in mining who is familiar with this?matter has said that the deal may still change, since EGA's priorities could be re-evaluated due to the conflict in the Middle East. EGA and Nimba declined to comment, while Guinea's Mines Ministry did not respond immediately to requests for comments. Two traders reported that the offtake discussions were complex. They said traders were cautious to commit capital without complete visibility of supply chains and compliance standards. Sources requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussion. GUINEA WANTS UPFRONT PAID The takeover of Guinea, as part of the broader African governments' drive to earn more money from their mineral resources has disrupted supply chains for bauxite. A trading source stated that interest was focused on spot cargoes between 400,000 and 500,000 metric tonnes, with bids up to 600,000. The source stated that larger volumes up to 1.6 millions tons were discussed, but not secured. The source stated that "we need to see assets and make sure the material is traceable as well as?assurances about labour standards". The government's attempts to secure "upfront prepayments" to compensate EGA have complicated negotiations for a long term offtake contract. According to a trading source, traders are wary of this structure. This arrangement would require that a new buyer make a large payment, which would then be amortized over the course of future bauxite delivery. The two traders claimed that Nimba Mining had held discussions with several major trading companies. Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Bernadette B. Baum and Maxwell Akalaare Adombila (Reporting)
-
Sources say that Guinea and Emirates Global Aluminium are close to a deal to resolve an asset dispute.
Three people familiar with the matter said that Guinea and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), have reached an agreement which 'will prevent a looming arbitral hearing' over last year's seizure by 'the miner's' local unit. According to traders and government officials, as part of a broader resolution, traders have explored bauxite deals that are linked to the assets seized, including structures whereby upfront prepayments for future shipments would help settle EGA claims. The deal is still being finalised. It follows the government taking over Guinea Alumina Corporation,?EGA's subsidiary for bauxite, in October, following a dispute about alumina refineries. The company then transferred GAC's asset to the state-owned Nimba Mining, and discussed potential bauxite supply to EGA. TECHNICAL DETAILS REMAIN AFTER DEAL CLOSE An official from the government confirmed that a deal was near but said several technical details were still unresolved. An expert in mining said that the deal could still be changed, because EGA's priorities might change due to the Middle East war. EGA, Nimba, and Guinea's Mines Ministry did not respond immediately to requests for comments. Two traders reported that the offtake discussions were complex. They said traders were cautious to commit capital without complete visibility of supply chains and compliance standards. Sources requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the discussions. GUINEA WANTS UPFRONT PAID The takeover of Guinea by the African governments, as part of their broader effort to earn more money from their mineral resources has disrupted bauxite supplies. A trading source stated that 'interest was focused on spot cargoes between 400,000 and 500,000 metric tonnes, with bids up to 600,000 tons. The source stated that larger volumes up to 1.6 millions tons were discussed, but not secured. The source stated that "we need to see the assets and ensure that the material is traceable as well as assurances about?labor standards". A trading source said that the government’s attempts to secure upfront payments to compensate EGA have complicated negotiations for a long term offtake contract. The arrangement would require that a new buyer make a bulk payment, which would then be amortized over the future deliveries of bauxite. The two traders claimed that Nimba Mining had held discussions with several major trading companies. Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Bernadette B. Baum and Maxwell Akalaare Adombila (Reporting)
-
Constellation's executive claims that grid operator told the company Three Mile Island cannot be connected until 2031
The U.S. grid operators PJM and Constellation Energy have told Constellation Energy the 'former Three -Mile Island nuclear /power?plant' in Pennsylvania will likely not be able connect to the grid before 2031. This is four years later than originally planned. Constellation is working to restart operations at its nuclear power plant, which will be renamed Crane Clean Energy Center to "feed Microsoft data centres". Constellation's chief?external and growth officer, David Dardis said that the company will be ready to produce electricity at the plant before its goal of 2027. It is also in talks with the grid operator PJM interconnection about reducing the timeline. Constellation, America's largest independent?power company, announced that in 2024 it had?contracted Microsoft to reopen a nuclear power plant. Three U.S. nuclear plants are in the process of restarting their reactors, as a result of a growing demand from Big Tech data centers,?electrification and transportation?, and other?data center-related projects. Reporting by Laila KEARNEY in Houston, editing by Lisa Shumaker
Gold gains on lower yields, traders wait for more US information
Gold edged higher on Tuesday lifted by pulling away Treasury yields, while financiers meticulously waited for more information that could provide fresh hints on the Federal Reserve's financial alleviating cycle.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,663.83 per ounce at 2:00 p.m. ET (1800 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.5%. greater at $2,678.9.
The Criteria 10-year note yields slipped. following a soft reading of production activity in New York. State, making non-yielding gold more appealing, while the. dollar hovered near its highest in more than 2 months.
We're seeing a little pullback in yields as bond rates. rally here. That's offering a little stability, a little support. to the gold market, stated David Meger, director of metals. trading at High Ridge Futures.
There is expectation that gold would be going through a bit. of a pause or a little a debt consolidation. We're leaning now more. towards a sideways to greater uptrend as we do think that yields. are going to backtrack a bit. We're visiting a bit of a. pullback in the dollar.
Presently, traders see about a 90% possibility of a. 25-basis-point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch. tool.
Markets' attention will be on upcoming U.S. retail sales,. industrial production data, and weekly jobless claims due later. today.
Gold, which yields no interest on its own, likewise acquires in. times of political and economic unpredictabilities.
Should the media reports prove to be true and Israel. refrains from targeting Iran's oil and nuclear websites in the. expected retaliatory strike, geopolitical risks would reduce. and assistance for the gold rate from this side would likewise fade,. Commerzbank stated in a note.
We see minor downside dangers for the gold price and anticipate. the gold rate to be $2,600 at the end of the year.
Spot silver increased 1% to $31.49 per ounce and platinum. fell 0.5% to $988.45. Palladium was down 1.6% to. $ 1,012.98.
(source: Reuters)