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US-Iran talks of peace falter as US dollar gains strength
Gold prices fell 'on Monday due to a'stronger dollar, and renewed inflation concerns that clouded future interest rate cuts following the collapse of the U.S. - Iran peace talks over the weekend. As of 11:36 am, spot gold was down by 0.8% to $4,711.24 per ounce. ET (1536 GMT), having hit its lowest level since April 7, earlier in the day. U.S. gold futures fell 1.1% to $4733.40. As the U.S. Dollar climbed, metals priced in greenbacks became more expensive for holders of other currencies. It's a headline-driven market. "All eyes are on crude?oil, because crude oil will direct inflation and Federal Reserve policy," said Phillip Streible. After the negotiations collapsed, the U.S. military announced that it would blockade ships from Iran's port. Meanwhile, Tehran has threatened to retaliate by attacking the ports of its Gulf neighbors. Following the announcement, oil prices rose above $100 per barrel, fueling inflation fears and limiting central banks' ability to reduce interest rates. The higher rates make?zero yield bullion less appealing, despite the fact that it is a good inflation hedge. According to CME's FedWatch Tool (formerly 40%), the market now expects a U.S. interest rate cut by year-end. This is down from 40% one month ago. Since the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began, February 28, spot?gold is down 11%. Analysts at?SP Angel stated that they saw the war-induced gold selloff as a positive for long-term gold prospects. They said this was because speculative positions had been reduced. Silver spot fell 2.5% to $73.97 an ounce. Paul Wong of Sprott Asset Management said that uncertainty over the future supply of oil is likely to lead to a strong demand for silver, resulting from accelerated investment into solar photovoltaics. Palladium rose 1.1% to $1,538.00, while platinum fell 0.8%. Ashitha Shivaprasad, Bengaluru (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman, Jonathan Ananda).
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Nigeria to start gas delivery in July through AKK pipeline
The upstream oil regulator said that Nigeria hoped to start delivering natural gas by July through its long-delayed Ajaokuta, Kaduna, Kano (AKK), gas pipeline. This would be a "key milestone" for the country's plans regarding?gas?development. A spokesperson for the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission said in the magazine of the regulator that they hoped to deliver gas to Abuja by July through the AKK pipeline. The 614-kilometre pipeline (382-miles) is designed to?deliver more than 2.2 billion cubic feet of gas each day. It's a key part of Nigeria’s strategy to shift their energy mix towards gas, supply industries and power plants in the north and reduce their reliance on fuel oil and diesel. Nigeria has the largest gas reserves in Africa, with an estimated 210 trillion cubic feet. However, much of the gas infrastructure is still underdeveloped. The AKK pipeline will be a test for the country's ambitions to grow through gas. The $2.8 billion project was first conceived in 2008. It has failed to meet several deadlines, including those set for 2023 and 2025's final quarter. Construction started in 2020, but funding issues and engineering challenges - most notably crossing the River Niger - slowed the project down. This section, which is widely considered to be 'the most technically demanding part of the project,' required horizontal directional drilling under the riverbed, often compared with a scaled down version of the Eurotunnel. A lawyer for the project said that it was at an advanced stage with the pipeline more than 90% completed. According to industry officials, gas transported?through AKK pipeline 'will be sourced largely from Nigeria's south producing areas through its interconnection with East-West Obiafu - Obikom - Oben (OB3) pipeline. Reporting by Isaac Anyaogu. Mark Potter edited the article.
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Ivanhoe increases copper and zinc production in Congo, as Platreef lifts outlook
Ivanhoe Mines'said on 'Monday that it delivered higher copper and zinc production in the first three months, a result of a ramp up at its flagship Kamoa Kakula complex in Democratic Republic of Congo. A key infrastructure milestone was also achieved at the Platreef Project in South Africa. Ivanhoe Mines' first-quarter update follows a reshrinkage of its copper anode production guidance for 2026 to 290,000.-330,000 metric tonnes and output in 2027 to?380,000-420,000 metric tons, citing more conservative mine plans. Kamoa-Kakula is a key asset for growth in a copper market that would otherwise be constrained by supply. In a press release, the Canadian-based miner stated that its Kipushi Mine in Congo produced 65,044 tons of zinc concentrate, a record. This is 6% more than the previous quarter. The company stated that improved plant recovery, which averaged over 90% for the firsttime, helped offset persistent energy instability at the operation. The smelter on site, which produces copper directly to blister, has been ramped up to 60% of its capacity of 500,000 tons per year. The company stated that the smelter aims to produce about 300,000 tonnes of copper per year. Further increases are constrained by feed concentrate. Ivanhoe announced that it had completed a 'new shaft' at its Platreef Mine in March. This will allow for a 'higher grade ore. The?company anticipates commercial production by mid-2026. Early work on Phase 2 is already underway. KAMOA-KAKULA TO BENEFIT ?FROM SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS Sales of sulphuric acids, a by-product from smelting in Kamoa-Kakula are increasing margins. Realized prices for a ton of acid have been around $500 due to a tightening of global supply. Robert Friedland, executive co-chair, said that disruptions in global shipping routes could exacerbate shortages, which would threaten copper supplies elsewhere. The smelter, however, will be the beneficiary, rather than a customer. (Reporting and writing by Yassin Kobi; editing by Louise Heavens).
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Iran War weighs on Global Economy as IMF Meeting Starts
On Monday, the concern over the impact of the Iran War on the global economy increased. More countries announced emergency measures to combat the rising cost of energy while others called for international assistance. The third major shock that has hit the global economy, after the COVID outbreak and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will be the focus of this week's meeting in Washington between finance officials from the?International Monetary Fund. The failure of U.S. and Iranian talks over the weekend has put the fragile ceasefire at risk. As a result, the IMF and World Bank are already downgrading their global growth forecasts and raising their inflation predictions. Emerging markets and developing nations will be hit the hardest. Nigerian officials said Monday that they would need more international assistance to reduce fuel prices at home, even though higher crude oil prices have boosted the country's foreign exchange earnings. In a statement released ahead of the meetings this week in Washington, Finance Minister Wale Edwardun stated that "the shock comes at an important transition point. It intensifies inflationary pressures while raising household living costs." Edun stated that local petrol prices have risen by more than 50%, and diesel prices by more than 70%, since the beginning of the conflict. He added that this shock threatens to derail the efforts launched in 2023 for stabilizing the economy and reviving growth. As shock levels rise, more countries are showing their support. Few countries have been spared the repercussions of the 'halting' of energy supplies through the Strait since the beginning on the 28th February, which triggered the worst disruption in supply ever experienced by the world. Dozens governments have already taken measures to conserve energy or support consumers. The German coalition government, who initially refused to offer support, announced on Monday that it had reached an agreement to reduce fuel prices for consumers and business worth 1.6 billion euro ($1.9 billion). This was achieved by reducing levies on petrol and diesel. At a press briefing, Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that "this war is the true cause of all the problems in our country." The Swedish government announced that it would cut fuel taxes as well as increase electricity subsidies, in a package valued at around $825million. Reporters were told by Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson that "it is a sign we will do what it takes to... dampen the impact on households of what is going on now." Rachel Reeves, British Finance Minister, will be presenting her plan to help businesses that are struggling to cope with high energy costs later this week. She wrote in a Sunday Times column that UK manufacturers had "faced uncompetitive prices on energy for too long". Keir starmer, the Prime Minister of Ireland, also referred to the conflict in the world when he described his government's plan to?realign with the European Union?and its vast single market a decade after the country voted for leaving the EU. He told BBC radio that the UK would benefit from a closer, stronger relationship with Europe. Iran's war has also impacted central bank policies around the globe as policymakers attempt to determine how it will impact economic growth, and increase inflation. Luis de Guindos, vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB), said that any rate increase by the ECB would be dependent on how rising crude oil prices affected prices across all sectors. The Bank of Japan is also keeping its options open ahead of their rate-setting session this month. However, the chances of a rate increase are fading. Reporting by Camillus EBOH in Abuja, Simon Johnson in Stockholm, Andreas Rinke in Berlin, Maria Martinez in Madrid, Miranda Murray in London, Sam Tabahriti in London, Alistair Smouth in London, Leika Kihara and Jesus Aguado at Tokyo, Mark John in London, Susan Fenton in Tokyo, Mark John in London, Susan Fenton in Tokyo.
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The defence of Nigerian former oil minister in London begins as he rejects the allegations of bribery
Diezani Alison Madueke, Nigeria’s former 'oil minister,' told the jury on Monday that she did not abuse her position by seeking or taking bribes. She is currently on trial in London on charges of corruption. Alison-Madueke has pleaded guilty to five counts of receiving bribes, and one charge of conspiring to commit bribery. "At No Time Did I Ask, Take, or Seek a Bribe, or Bribes of Any Sort, From These?Persons," Alison Madueke said. She was referring to the people named in these charges. She added that she had "always?tried to act impartially in her position." The prosecution claims that Alison-Madueke lived a life of luxury in London. This included being given high-end homes to stay in, and taking her on shopping sprees. Alison-Madueke informed jurors the President was aware of her use of one of the properties - a high-end property in Gerrards Cross west of London - for discrete meetings. Alison-Madueke claimed that because she is a woman in an important position, it makes her a target. She described Nigeria as patriarchal, misogynistic and said that the administration told her that'she will be made into a scapegoat. She also'said that she arranged accommodation in central London through a Nigerian businessman Kolawole Aluko, because the financial structure of Nigerian National Petroleum Company London office was "in a mess" and all expenses were repaid back to Nigeria. Her trial is a 'high-profile case' relating to corruption allegations in the oil-rich nation of?Nigeria. The country has struggled for years with corruption and mismanagement, which prevents its mineral wealth from being shared by the population. Reporting by Robert Harvey in London and Sam Tobin, editing by William Maclean
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India's monsoon is expected to be below average after two years with above-average rainfall
India will likely'see below-average rains in the monsoon season for the first three years of 2026', said the government on Monday. This is raising concerns about the growth and farm production in Asia’s third largest economy, as it battles the inflation caused by the Iran war. Monsoons are the lifeblood of India’s nearly $4 trillion economy. They provide almost 70% of all the rain needed to water the farms, replenish aquifers, and fill reservoirs. M. Ravichandran (secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences) told a press conference that the monsoon is expected to be 92% of its long-period-average this year. India Meteorological Department defines a normal rainfall range as 96% to 104% of the 50-year average 87 cm (35") for a four-month period. Currently, weak La Nina conditions are changing to neutral conditions. Mrutyunjay M. Mohapatra is the director-general for India Meteorological Department. He said that after June, it's likely El Nino conditions will develop. El Nino, a weather phenomena that occurs when ocean temperatures rise in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean above normal levels. This results in hot and dry conditions in Southeast Asia as well as other parts of world. India has often experienced severe droughts and below-average rainfall in the past, which have destroyed crops. Mohapatra stated that "positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions (IOD) are likely to develop in the later part of the season and this will help the Monsoon." IOD is the climate pattern that is marked by differences between sea surface temperatures in the eastern and western Indian Ocean. Positive IODs, which are defined as warmer than normal waters in the western Indian Ocean often support stronger monsoon rains in India. IMD's forecast for rainfall at 92% LPA is lowest in nearly 30 years. The IMD will release an updated forecast for the season during the last week in May. Aditi Nair, Chief Economist at ICRA, said that the impact of the Middle East crisis, as well as the upcoming impact, poses downside risks to India's GDP in the financial year 2026-2027. India's government has forecast that the economy will grow between 6.8% and 7,2% during the fiscal year which began on April 1. Nayar stated that lower rainfall forecasts could also have a material impact on the retail inflation trajectory for this fiscal year. Nayar added that average inflation "could very well exceed 4.5 percent." Data released on Monday showed that inflation was 3.4% in the month of March. India is the largest exporter of onions and rice in the world, and the second biggest producer of sugar. India is the world's biggest importer of edible oil. It currently meets nearly two-thirds its demand by purchasing?palm, soyoil, and sunflower oils from overseas, primarily in Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, Brazil and Russia. A Mumbai-based dealer at a global trading house said that lower rainfall would likely increase India's imports of edible oil and eliminate the possibility for sugar exports the following season.
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State media reports that two Chinese companies have been granted quotas for lithium exports from Zimbabwe.
China's Securities Journal, a state-run media outlet, reported on Monday that Zimbabwe had granted two Chinese mining firms export quotas to export lithium concentrates. This comes two months after Africa's top lithium producer, Africa, suspended the exports of this key battery material. According to the report, the quotas have been granted to Chengxin Lithium, and Sinomine Resource who operate lithium mining projects within Zimbabwe. Zimbabwean authorities halted the exports of raw minerals, including lithium, in February citing "alleged malpractices" and "leakages". In early February, Zimbabwean authorities told producers that they would introduce "quotas" for exporting lithium concentrates, and they'd require more processing locally to allow mineral exports to resume. In 2025, Zimbabwe exported to China 1.128 million metric tons (about 15%) of the lithium-bearing concentrate it imported that year. A representative of Chengxin Lithium was quoted in the report as saying that the company had a lithium concentrate production capability in Zimbabwe of?approximately 299,000 metric tons per year, and its quota was enough to meet production needs. Sinomine Resource reported that it had received a quota for 200,000 metric tonnes, which was "roughly equivalent" to its monthly production in Zimbabwe. Shares of Shenzhen listed Chengxin Lithium reached the 10% daily price limit on Monday while Sinomine Resource shares closed 6.6% higher. The report stated that Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt of Shanghai, another major player in Zimbabwe's mining sector for lithium, had said it hadn't received any notices from the Zimbabwean Government.
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De Guindos: ECB will raise rates depending on the effects of oil prices surge
Luis de Guindos, ECB vice president, said that any rate increase by the European Central Bank will 'depend' on how a surge in crude oil and some chemicals prices is affecting other prices. De Guindos said at an event in 'Madrid that "the rate hike will be dependent... on second-round effect", adding that the ECB wouldn't be able?to?stave off wars first impact, but would closely monitor their secondary effects. The ECB held interest rates at the same level?last week but indicated that it would be ready to 'tighten up policy' if a?higher energy price seeped into the broader economic system, impacting on the prices of other goods or services via what is known as a?second-round effect. De Guindos stated that the partial closing of the Strait?of Hormuz will not only increase energy prices, but also other commodities like aluminium, 'fertilisers, and plastics are likely to become more expensive. The yields on euro zone government bonds climbed to recent peaks after?the United States & Iran?failed a deal to stop the war. This pushed oil 'prices up and prompted traders to price in a %70 chance of a third ECB interest rate hike before December.
Peace talks and dollar firming cause gold to fall
Gold prices remained subdued Monday due to a stronger dollar and the collapse of U.S. - Iran talks at the weekend. This fueled inflation fears and clouded future interest rate reductions.
As of 9:23 am, spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,728.59 an ounce. ET (1323 GMT), having hit its lowest level since April 7, earlier in the day. U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $4.752.20.
As the U.S. Dollar climbed, metals priced in greenbacks became more expensive for holders of other currencies.
It's a headline-driven market. "All eyes are on crude?oil, because crude oil will direct inflation and this is going direct Federal Reserve policy," Phillip?Streible said.
After weekend talks ended without a resolution to the conflict, a ceasefire was in danger. The U.S. Military said that it would begin a blockade on ships leaving Iran's port. Tehran also threatened to retaliate by attacking ports in its Gulf neighbours.
Oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel. Energy prices are higher, which increases inflation fears and limits the ability of central banks to reduce rates. In turn, higher rates reduce the appeal for zero-yield gold, despite its role in inflation hedge.
According to CME’s?FedWatch Tool?, the markets now expect a?21% probability of a U.S. interest rate cut before year's end, down from 40% a few months ago.
In a recent note, Paul Wong, Market Strategist at Sprott Asset Management said: "If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, markets might not follow their usual risk-off pattern. Energy shortages and payment restrictions could increase gold's value as a trusted asset for cross-border settlement when currencies are restricted."
He added that uncertainty over future oil supply is likely to lead to a strong demand for silver, through increased investment in solar photovoltaics.
Silver spot fell 2.4%, to $74.07 an ounce.
Palladium rose 0.4% to 1,527.45, while platinum fell 1.2% to 2,021.28. Ashitha Shivprasad, Bengaluru (reporting); Janane Venkatraman, editing)
(source: Reuters)