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Chile delays copper output peak, cuts short-term forecasts

Chile has delayed its goal to reach a peak annual copper production of 6 million metric tonnes by several years, and cut a significant portion of its estimates for upcoming years.

The report, released by the state-run Cochilco on Monday, was a result of falling ore grades, and changes to the mining plans. Andean countries, which are the largest producers of metal in the world, have made adjustments in their mining plans.

Cochilco stated that in its 2025-2034 forecast, Chile's copper production is expected to reach 5.86 million tons by 2034 after reaching a high of 6.06 million tons the year before.

In its 10-year outlook published in 2024, it had "predicted a peak production of 6,07 million tons" by 2027. The agency has now lowered its estimate to 5.97 millions tons.

The annual production forecasts for 2026-2031 were reduced compared to last year's report. A recovery is expected in only the last three years of the projection horizon.

Cochilco stated that "although projects currently under execution and those in the investment pipeline will allow for a gradual recovery of production toward the end of the period but output will stabilize at similar levels to today's,"

It emphasized that the development of the country's pipeline of investment is crucial in mitigating production decline.

The agency stated that Chile's share in global copper production is projected to drop to 21,5% in 2030, from 23% in 2020, before rising to 27% in 2034 depending on the success of expected investments. (Reporting and writing by Fabian Cambero, Gabriel Araujo, Editing by Cassandra Garrison).

(source: Reuters)