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China's steel production will fall below 1 billion tonnes in 2025, but the industry imbalance persists

China's steel production will drop below 1 billion tons by 2025. This is on track to meet government pledges to reduce production. However, a mismatch between supply and demand still exists.

The world's biggest producer of crude steel has seen its output fall since 2020. However, it was still over 1 billion tons by 2024.

Beijing promised in March that it would continue to cut steel production this year, to restructure a sector plagued by excessive capacity.

A prolonged downturn on the steel-intensive real estate market has led to a shortage of steel.

The steel consumption in 2025 fell by 5.7%, while the crude steel production declined by 2.9%.

At a briefing for reporters, Jiang Wei (Vice Chairman of China Iron and Steel Association) said that consumption this year will fall by a fifth consecutive year.

China's steel sector will have its best year since the 2022, with many listed companies reporting significant increases in their third-quarter net profits.

Steel prices have been halted by a surge in exports, which has partially offset a faltering domestic demand. However, the influx of cheap Chinese steel threatens to trigger broader protectionist reactions worldwide.

Steel billet, or lower-value blocks of semi-finished steel, has been exported three times more than in the same period of 2024. This trend, the steel association warned earlier this year, could deter the industry from upgrading and is already increasing the price of steelmaking materials, especially iron ore.

Beijing has committed to carbon neutrality in 2060. To achieve this target, the steel industry will need to invest approximately 20 trillion yuan. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Kate Mayberry and Amy Lv)

(source: Reuters)