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Fed rate-cut bets propel gold to new record highs

Gold reached another record high Tuesday, well above the $3.600 mark crossed in the previous day, as increasing bets on a U.S. interest rate cut weakened dollar and pushed down bond yields, boosting the demand for precious metal.

As of 0931 GMT the spot gold price was up 0.4% to $3,654.09 an ounce. It had earlier reached a session high of $3.659.10 per ounce.

U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.4% to $3,693.

The gold price has risen by nearly 39% in the past year after a 27% increase in 2024. This is due to a weaker dollar, central bank accumulations, a dovish monetary policies and increased global uncertainty.

The dollar index dropped to a low of about seven weeks against its rivals. This made gold more appealing to holders of other currencies, while the benchmark yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remained near their five-month-lows.

The market's convictions about rate cuts have fueled bulls and sent gold to new record highs. The weaker dollar helped to pave the path for $3,600. Central bank purchases and bullion-backed flows also added to the mix of tailwinds," Han Tan, chief analyst at Nemo.money, said.

CME Group's FedWatch showed that traders expect a 88% probability of a Federal Reserve rate reduction of 25 basis points next week, and a 12 percent chance of a 50-basis point reduction.

The data released on Friday showed that the U.S. employment growth in August was a sharp decline.

The dollar and bond yields are impacted by lower interest rates, which increases the appeal of non-yielding gold.

Investors are now awaiting U.S. consumer and producer prices on Thursday.

Tan said that if the markets see a drastic reduction in revisions of U.S. job data and shockingly low CPI figures, they may be tempted to buy gold.

Tan said that "$4,000 in gold by 2025 could require Fed rate cuts faster than expected, as well as a rapid decline in the Fed's trust or independence in U.S. fiscal policy."

Silver spot edged down 0.3% to $41.22 an ounce. Palladium rose 0.2% and platinum gained 0.5%, respectively, to $1138.78.

(source: Reuters)