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China smelters prepare output cuts, no Q2 copper assistance rate, sources say

China's leading copper smelters have actually proposed to cut production by 5% to 10% and chose not to release guidance rates for copper treatment charges (TCs) for the second quarter, 2 sources with knowledge of the matter said on Thursday.

The statements followed a meeting of the China Smelters Purchase Group (CSPT) in the industrial hub of Shanghai after the world's leading producer of refined copper battled brief supply of raw material and a sharp drop in TCs in the area market.

Leading smelters concurred the spot market had actually become detached from true market principles, one meeting individual informed .

It is useless to set an assistance cost in the existing market, the source included, speaking on condition of anonymity.

CSPT has decreased to set guidance prices before, most just recently in the second quarter of 2021.

Leading smelters had actually likewise proposed output curbs in January but no specific actions were taken.

Smelters Jiangxi Copper, Jinchuan Group and China Copper did not immediately react to ' ask for comment.

Our company believe the prospective production cut amidst lower-than-breakeven area TC for smelters will support copper price, Citi experts stated in a note.

The Citi commodity group anticipated the worldwide copper market to be in deficits of 207,000 metric lots in 2024 and 215,000 lots in 2025 due to constrained supply, which could push the metal's average cost to $9,125 a lot this year and $10,250. in 2025.

However, benchmark three-month copper rate on the London. Metal Exchange fell 0.2% to $8,832.15 a heap by 0927 GMT.

A trader associated the drop to the fact that the market had. currently priced in the output cut strategy, which had actually taken the price. to an 11-month high after it was revealed previously this month.

CSPT plans to broaden by including three brand-new members, the 2. sources said.

The group had formerly set first-quarter assistance of $80. per ton and 8.0 cents per pound, as unexpected supply lacks. strike the world's leading improved copper producer with a heavy. reliance on overseas raw material supplies.

Supply shortages have been driven by mine-side disturbances,. chiefly the closure of the huge Cobre Panama mine owned by First. Quantum's.

TC/RCs, a key source of earnings for smelters, are paid by. miners when they offer concentrate, or semi-processed ore, to be. improved into metal.

The charges generally fall when the concentrate market. tightens and smelters must accept lower terms to protect. feedstock.

Spot copper TCs in China toppled to $11.20 per lot on March. 11, down 80% from the end of December and the most affordable level since. 2013, when prices firm Fastmarkets started releasing the. weekly index.

The rapidly falling TCs triggered losses for smelters that rely. mainly on area purchases, while the leading smelters get many. of their concentrate through long-term contracts signed at the. $ 80-a-ton yearly criteria.

Area TCs are likely to recover from the historic low in the. second quarter as smelters start upkeep. However, the. lack of supply is anticipated to last, given smelters' growing. output this year.

China's refined copper production in January and February. rose 10.7% from the corresponding months a year before to about. 2.22 million heaps, information from the National Bureau of Data. revealed.

In the first 2 months, China's imports of copper ore and. concentrate rose by merely 0.6% on the year to 4.66 million. heaps, custom-mades data showed.

In spite of the industry's efforts to manage output, China's. total refined copper output will increase by more than 3% this. year, according to state-backed research study house Antaike.

(source: Reuters)