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Iron ore prices boosted by positive China data and hopes for stimulus
Prices of iron ore futures rebounded Wednesday on the back of upbeat factory data, and expectations that China's top consumer could take a?stimulus measure to brighten demand prospects. As of 15:00 GMT, the most-traded contract of iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange climbed 0.62%, to 816 Yuan ($118.55), a metric tonne, after a 0.8% drop the previous day. By 0145 GMT, the benchmark May iron ore contract on Singapore Exchange was up 0.68% at $106.2 per ton. China's factory output grew at its fastest rate in a full year in March. This was a relief to an economy that is struggling with the global supply chain and volatile energy markets. China's central banks pledged to maintain a loose monetary policy on Tuesday, igniting hopes for the implementation of policies that will help boost domestic consumption and counter external shocks. Iron ore stock levels near record highs at port have limited the price potential. As heightened expectations of an end to the Iran war arose, coking coal and other steelmaking components suffered a?loss of 2.89 % and 1.1% respectively. This was due to the heightened hope of a rapid conclusion. Donald 'Trump stated that the United States would be able to end its military attack on Iran in two to three weeks and that Tehran didn't have to make a deal to bring down the conflict. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.12%, while wire rod dropped 0.64%. Stainless steel rose 0.28%.
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Data shows that India's diesel exports to SE Asia reached a 7-year high due to the Iran war in March.
Shipping data shows that India's diesel exports into Southeast Asia soared in March to the highest level in over seven years. This was due to traders adjusting supply to cover their short positions, and refiners taking advantage of higher profits in Asia as a result of the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. The increase in exports may boost the spot sales margins of Indian refiners, who have bought large volumes Russian crude oil to replace Middle East supplies disrupted by war. According to Kpler, three trade sources and data from the analytics firm, Kpler, around 1 million metric tonnes (7.45 millions barrels) worth of diesel has been shipped on this route. Around half of these volumes are bound for Singapore. Kpler data revealed that Reliance Industries was responsible for 90% of this volume. Reliance Industries is the operator of the largest refining complex in the world. Reliance didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. SUPPLY PIVOTS A FOLLOWING NARROW EASTWEST PRICE SPREADS After the Middle East conflict disrupted crude oil supplies to Asia, traders tapped India's supply of diesel for Southeast Asia and Australia. Refineries cut production?and countries such as China banned exports?of refined products. Analysts from FGE NexantECA stated that "Asian buyers who usually rely upon Chinese and Northeast Asia must look for alternative suppliers, with India's Reliance as one of the most likely candidates in the area." India is a pivotal supplier of oil on the global market, as it can choose to sell its refined products to Europe or Asia based on which is more profitable. Traders said that these shipments would help ease the supply?tightness in April. Analysts expect this trend to continue in the short term, despite India reinstating its export taxes on diesel. James Noel Beswick, analyst at Sparta Commodities, said that its arbitrage calculations indicated that the trade flow could continue until August. He added that "India seems?committed? to maintaining its?refineries? at full capacity. Washington's rather lenient stance towards both Russian and Iranian purchase has given them the means to achieve this." To ease global prices, the U.S. issued temporary waivers on the sale of Russian oil and Iranian oil at sea. The difference between Singapore paper Swaps on a Free on Board basis and ICE Gasoil 'futures' for the front month of April, which is the difference between Singapore swaps on a FREE on BOARD basis, and ICE futures of gasoil, was reduced to an average of $20 a ton during the week ending March 27. Most traders consider a discount less than $40 per ton as more favorable for them to switch cargoes eastwards instead of westwards.
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Sources say that China's smaller independent refining companies will reduce output due to rising oil prices
Analysts and traders said that Chinese independent smaller?refiners will 'cut crude processing rates' in April due to the'sharp rise in oil prices sanctioned by the United States and a still low fuel demand. Teapot refiners have benefited from low-cost Russian and Iranian crude in recent months. However, temporary U.S. waivers that allow the purchase of Russian or Iranian oil that is stranded on sea for 30 day has pushed prices sharply higher, as buyers rush to secure supplies, particularly Indian refiners. Sun Jianan, senior analyst at Energy Aspects, predicted that run?rates of teapot refineries would fall to 50% after recovering to 55% during February and March. Traders said that spot premiums for ESPO blend for April and May shipments jumped to $8 a barrel from a discount of $8 before the U.S. - Israeli 'war with Iran. The Iranian oil discount to China is now at or just below ICE Brent. It was more than $10 when the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28, traders said. CRUDE PROCUREMENT DELETED With teapots delaying crude procurement plans due to the vanishing discounts and Brent crude futures, traders reported that there were few inquiries for cargoes expected in April and/or May. As Beijing limits fuel prices in spite of rising crude prices, independent refiners are expected to reduce output as they wait for clarity about the market outlook. The low-cost Shandong teapot inventories may last until the end of April, although refineries under capital pressure might be forced to reduce run rates sooner, Zhang Yuxin, an analyst for Horizon Insights, said in a report. Zhang stated that fuel demand has been weak due to high prices. The National Development and Reform Commission of China, China's central planner, increased the maximum retail prices for gasoline on 23 March by 1,160 yuan and 1,115 dollars per ton. This was the biggest increase in history, but it still lagged behind the rise of crude oil prices. (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Kate Mayberry, and Siyi Liu from Singapore)
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Sources say that China is set to extend the ban on fuel exports with minor exemptions.
Five industry sources familiar with the matter said that China will extend its ban on refined fuel exports until April. However, exemptions may be made for small volumes of fuel bound for countries in the area who have requested assistance. Three sources confirmed that discussions were underway for the shipment of limited quantities of diesel, jet-fuel and gasoline to Southeast Asian nations in April. Three sources stated that the permitted exports for April could reach up to?150,000 in metric tons. Two other sources suggested it could be as high as 300,000 tons. The sources declined to name themselves as they weren't authorised to speak to the media. Sources?said that Bangladesh, Myanmar Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Vietnam are among the countries that could receive Chinese fuel. Shipments would be handled by Chinese state oil companies Three sources stated that direct shipments into the countries would be handled by Chinese state-owned firms. The National Development and Reform Commission of China did not respond immediately to a faxed comment request. Earlier reports indicated that some countries, such as the Philippines and Bangladesh have requested fuel from China since the beginning of the Iran War. Beijing has said that it is willing to work with Southeast Asia to solve energy shortages. Beijing has banned the export of jet fuel, diesel and gasoline as of March 12. The ban was not announced publicly and did not include jet fuel exports used for international flight refuelling or bunkering. Two sources say that some exports of jet fuel and diesel from Hainan, south China's province, trickled out after March 12. The volumes cleared customs prior to the implementation of the ban. After March 12, tankers Stavanger Pearl, Auchentoshan, and Qian Chi were loaded with more than 600,000. barrels of diesel from Hainan. Ship-tracking data and trade sources revealed that the first shipment was bound for Mexico, and the two others for the Philippines. Reporting by Trixie YAP and Siyi Liu Editing Tony Munroe & Barbara Lewis
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Brent futures for the front-month extend gains following record monthly gain in March
Early Wednesday, oil prices rose, as Brent front-month contracts?extended a record rally in March, despite reports suggesting that the U.S., Iran, and other Middle East countries may be moving closer to a negotiated settlement of the 'war. Brent front-month contract for June delivery rose?66cents or 0.63% at $104.63 per barrel by 0010 GMT. According to LSEG, the front-month Brent contract for June?delivery hit a monthly record gain of 64%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) for May increased by 96 cents, or 0.95%, to $102.34 a barrel. WTI futures in June rose by 46?cents, or 0.49%, to $93.62 a barrel. "Even though diplomatic channels are still active, and the U.S. Administration is making intermittent comments predicting a quick end to the war, the combination between limited tangible diplomatic advances, continuing maritime attacks, as well as explicit threats aimed at energy assets, keeps supply risks skewed upwards," LSEG analysts wrote in a recent note. Brent futures, June delivery, settled down by more than $3 on Tuesday after media reports that Iran's President was prepared to end the war. The President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday that the U.S. military campaign could be over in two to three weeks, and that Iran does not have to reach a settlement to end the conflict. This was his most direct declaration to date that he wanted to bring an end to the month-long battle. Analysts say that even if the war ends, infrastructure damage will likely keep supplies tight. Trump also said he would end the war without reopening Strait of Hormuz. This is a major route that carries 20% of the global oil and LNG trade, according to the Wall Street Journal. A survey released on Tuesday showed that oil production by the Organization?of?the Petroleum?Exporting Counties (OPEC) fell 7.3 million barrels a day in March compared with the previous month. This shows the impact of forced export reductions due to the closure of Hormuz. According to a survey of economists, the blockage in the strait and disruptions to output have caused analysts to raise their forecasts for annual oil prices by a record-breaking amount between February and March. Brent crude is expected to average $82.85 per bar in 2026. This is about 30% more than the forecast made in February, which was $63.85, before the war. The increase of $19 represents the highest annual forecasts since 2005.
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McGeever: Central banks will diverge from 2022 if the energy shock intensifies.
When the world was faced with a sudden surge in inflationary forces in 2021-22 due to a severe shock in supply and spikes in energy prices, all major central banks reacted?together. This is unlikely to happen again. Five years ago, supply disruptions caused by pandemics led to a united - but belated cycle of interest rate hikes among the world's largest central banks. This cycle accelerated in response to the skyrocketing prices of energy triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. By the time the European Central Bank raised rates in July 2022 (and the Bank of Japan did not), every G10 central banks except the Bank of Japan had joined the party. All of them raised policy rates by 400-525 bps. The war in the Middle East is causing the largest monthly increase in Brent crude oil price in history. It also disrupts other supply chains, which could lead to a rise in global inflation. This is causing central bank forecasts to be re-evaluated. Rates are shifting accordingly. Many policymakers fear that they will be too late in responding to the inflationary threat. The two U.S. rates cuts that were expected for this year have disappeared from the curve of futures. In addition, the ECB may now hike three times. And the reversal of the expected 'path' for UK interest rates is even more astounding. Can we expect the central banks to move in lockstep like they did 5 years ago? Not if supply becomes more scarce. SCENARIO PLANNING All rate markets are based on the assumption that the Middle East Conflict will soon end and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, allowing the global supply of oil, natural gas liquefied, fertilizer and other energy products, to flow again. This benign base-case scenario assumes that energy prices will continue to rise after the war, but will remain high on an average annual basis. Global growth will also hold steady, which will justify a relatively hawkish position from most central bankers. What if energy prices continue to rise, the war doesn't end, or the war doesn't end? What would the central banks do? UBS economists estimate the effects of three Middle East conflict scenarios. These include a rapid resolution, a two-month disruption of the Strait of Hormuz with oil peaks near $130 per barrel and an "extended disrupt scenario" involving additional damage to energy infrastructure as well as oil reaching $150. They believe that in the event of a recession that is caused by the Federal Reserve, it could reduce U.S. interest rates to zero next year and that the Swiss National Bank will again use negative interest rates. Bank of England could reverse only two or three of the rate increases currently expected for this year. The ECB may not reduce rates at all. UBS economists noted that "considerable differences" exist between economies. No one knows about POWELL The U.S. labour market stagnates today, but the average monthly job increase in 2022 will be over 600,000. In comparison to five years ago, the current price pressures, tariffs and all, are relatively benign. Policy is also much tighter. Will the new Fed chair rush to raise rates in an economy that is weakening? The euro zone labor market is tighter today than the U.S., while growth is near trend and monetary policies are more neutral. Moreover, since the ECB has only one mandate, which is to achieve a 2% inflation rate, it's more likely that they will tighten policy than ease. You can imagine a scenario in which the central banks diverge. This could increase volatility, widen interest rates and bond yields, accelerate currency swings and cause macro volatility. There is already a lot of uncertainty in the markets. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, said at his press conference after his March meeting that no one knows the economic effects of "the war" - not even him or his colleagues. It's therefore impossible to determine the best policy at this time. We can expect that, the more the central banks are impacted by the disruptions, the more likely they will act independently. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Australia restricts Hong Kong investors' voting rights in Northern Minerals
The Australian rare-earths'miner' said on Wednesday that Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers had barred Hong Kong based Ying Tak, from voting or transferring a combined 361.5 million?"shares" in Northern _Minerals. It said that the shares transferred from Black Stone Resources may have violated a national-interest order of 2024, which required five China-linked shareholders to divest combined 613.6 millions shares. The interim directions highlight Canberra's scrutiny over foreign ownership of?critical minerals as Western governments try to secure supply chains that are dominated by China for use in defence technologies and clean energy technologies. This move is in response to a 'June 2024 order ordering Yuxiao Fund, Ximei Liu and Black Stone Resources (including Xi Wang, Xi Wang, and Black Stone Resources) to sell 613.6 millions shares or approximately 10.4% of their company. Yuxiao Fund was linked to Chinese investor Wu Yuxiao and given 60 days to sell down 80 million shares. Chalmers stated that he believed part of 'those shares' were transferred to Hong Kong Ying Tak in a... way which may have violated the earlier disposal order. This prompted the government to halt... the voting and transfer rights associated..."with the stake. The Foreign Investment Review Board will continue its investigation while Northern Minerals holds their next annual general assembly, which is due by June 30, 2026. Reporting by Roushni nair in Bengaluru, and Melanie Burton from Melbourne. Editing by Shreya biswas and Stephen Coates.
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Ivanhoe's revised report reduces copper production forecast for 2026 at DRC mine
Ivanhoe Mines announced on Tuesday that an updated independent study has lowered the near-term production estimate for the company's copper?complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The 'technical report', which supports the Canadian miner’s plan to increase production at the Kamoa Kakula complex has lowered the estimate of 2026 copper anode output to a range between 290,000 and 330,000 tonnes. The outlook for 2027 was also reduced to between 380,000 and 420,000 tonnes. Kamoa-Kakula is one of the highest-grade copper projects in the world. It has become a major growth source for a market with limited supply and limited new project development. The company has a plan to increase the annual production of copper at the complex from 50,000 tonnes to over 500,000 tonnes by 2028. The latest mineral reserve estimate was 466 millions tonnes of ore with a copper grade of 2.82%, which contained 13.1 million tonnes?of copper. Copper, which is widely used in construction and power, will benefit from the?demand for electric vehicles and grid investments, as well as the rapid 'build-out' of datacenters to support the surge in artificial Intelligence usage. Ivanhoe said that following the recommendations in the technical report it has begun a new feasibility analysis. It is expected to finish?within a year, with drilling and mapping to start during the second quarter 2026. (Reporting by Dharna Bafna in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)
Yahya Sinwar: The Hamas leader dedicated to eradicating Israel is dead
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar remained unrepentant about the Oct. 7 attacks in spite of letting loose an Israeli invasion that has actually killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, laid waste to his Gaza homeland and drizzled damage on ally Hezbollah, individuals in contact with him have stated.
The Israeli military said on Thursday that Sinwar, 62, designer of in 2015's Hamas's cross-border raids that ended up being the most dangerous day in Israel's history, was eliminated in an operation in the southern Gaza Strip on Wednesday.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated: The. score has been settled and evil has been dealt a blow on their. most wanted opponent. Hamas sources said signs from Gaza. suggested that Sinwar had actually been killed in an Israeli operation.
Besides his sibling, Mohammed, a top Hamas leader, Sinwar. is believed to have been the last Hamas leader on a high-profile. Israeli hit list prepared after the Oct. 7 attack.
For Sinwar, armed battle stayed the only method to require. the production of a Palestinian nation, Palestinian authorities and. Arab sources stated, speaking in weeks causing the Oct. 7. anniversary.
The attacks eliminated 1,200 people, generally civilians, and. recorded 250 captives, according to Israeli tallies, in the. most dangerous day for Jews since the Holocaust.
Israel responded by introducing a huge offensive, killing. 42,400 people and displacing 1.9 million, according to. Palestinian health authorities and U.N. figures.
Now the conflict has infected Lebanon, with Israel heavily. breaking down Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah, consisting of. eliminating most of its leadership. Hamas patron Tehran is at risk. of being pulled into open war with Israel.
Sinwar drew Iran and its entire Axis of Resistance -. consisting of Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis and Iraqi militias - into. dispute with Israel, said Hassan Hassan, an author and. researcher on Islamic groups.
We're seeing now the ripple effects of Oct. 7. Sinwar's. gamble didn't work, Hassan said, recommending that the Axis of. Resistance might never recover.
What Israel did to Hezbollah in two weeks is nearly equal. to an entire year of degrading Hamas in Gaza. With Hezbollah,. three layers of leadership have been gotten rid of, its armed force. command has actually been decimated, and its essential leader Hassan. Nasrallah has actually been assassinated, added Hassan.
Sinwar was picked as the Islamist motion's general leader. after his predecessor Ismail Haniyeh was eliminated in July by a. suspected Israeli strike during a visit to Tehran. Israel has. not confirmed its participation in the strike.
Two Israeli sources stated that, running from a network of. labyrinthine tunnels under Gaza, Sinwar had over the previous year. endured Israeli airstrikes, which have reportedly eliminated his. deputy Mohammed Deif and other senior leaders.
After Oct. 7, Israel's Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said. Sinwar and other leaders were residing on obtained time.
Sinwar has actually operated in secrecy, moving continuously and using. trusted messengers for non-digital interaction, according to. three Hamas authorities and one regional official. He had not been. seen in public because Oct. 7, 2023.
Over months of stopped working ceasefire talks, led by Qatar and. Egypt, that focused on switching detainees for hostages, Sinwar. was the sole decision-maker, Hamas sources stated. Arbitrators. would wait for days for reactions filtered through a secretive. chain of messengers.
Sinwar's high tolerance for suffering, both for himself and. for the Palestinian people, in the name of a cause, appeared. when he helped work out the 2011 exchange of 1,027 detainees,. himself consisted of, for one kidnapped Israeli soldier.
The kidnapping by Hamas had caused an Israeli attack on the. seaside enclave and thousands of Palestinian deaths.
Half a lots people who know Sinwar informed Reuters his resolve. was formed by an impoverished childhood in Gaza's refugee camps. and a harsh 22 years in Israeli custody, consisting of a period in. Ashkelon, the town his moms and dads called home before fleeing after. the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.
The question of hostages and prisoner swaps was deeply. individual for Sinwar, said all the sources. He had actually vowed to complimentary. all Palestinian detainees kept in Israel.
Sinwar ended up being a member of Hamas soon after its starting in. the 1980s, adopting the group's radical Islamist ideology, which. seeks to develop an Islamic state in historic Palestine and. opposes Israel's presence.
The ideology views Israel not only as a political competitor but. as an occupying force on Muslim land. Seen in this light,. challenges and suffering were often interpreted by him and his. followers as part of a bigger Islamic belief of sacrifice,. experts on Islamic motions say.
What lies behind his resolve is perseverance of ideology,. persistence of goal. He's ascetic and satisfied with little, said. one senior Hamas official who asked for anonymity.
FROM SACKCLOTH TO LEADER
Before the war, Sinwar would sometimes tell of his early. life in Gaza during years of Israeli occupation, as soon as saying. his mom made clothing from empty U.N. food-aid sacks,. according to Gaza resident Wissam Ibrahim, who has satisfied him.
In a semi-autobiographical unique composed in jail, Sinwar. explained scenes of troops bulldozing Palestinian homes, like. a beast crushing its prey's bones, before Israel withdrew. from Gaza in 2005.
A ruthless enforcer charged with penalizing Palestinians. presumed of informing for Israel, Sinwar then made his name as. a jail leader, emerging as a street hero from a 22-year. Israeli sentence for masterminding the kidnapping and murder of. 2 Israeli soldiers and 4 Palestinians.
He then quickly increased to the top of the Hamas ranks.
His understanding of the everyday hardships and ruthless. realities in Gaza was well-received by Gazans and made individuals. feel at ease, four journalists and three Hamas authorities stated,. despite his terrifying credibility and explosive anger.
Sinwar is concerned by Arab and Palestinian officials as the. architect of Hamas' technique and military power, reinforced. through his strong ties with Iran, which he visited in 2012.
Before managing the Oct. 7 raids Sinwar made no secret. of his desire to strike his opponent hard.
In a speech the year before, he swore to send a flood of. fighters and rockets to Israel, hinting at a war that would. either unite the world to establish a Palestinian state on land. Israel inhabited in 1967, or leave the Jewish nation separated on. the international stage.
By the time of the speech, Sinwar and Deif had currently. hatched secret strategies for the assault. They were even running. training drills in public that simulated such an attack.
His objectives have actually not been fulfilled. While the issue is once. once again at the top of the international agenda, the prospect of a. Palestinian nation is as far-off as ever.
' BY REQUIRE, NOT BY NEGOTIATIONS'
Sinwar was jailed in 1988 and sentenced to 4 life. sentences, implicated of managing the abduction and murder of. two Israeli soldiers and four believed Palestinian informants.
Michael Koubi, a previous official with Israel's Shin Bet. security agency who questioned Sinwar for 180 hours in prison,. said Sinwar plainly stood apart for his capability to daunt and. command.
Koubi as soon as asked the militant, then aged 28 or 29, why he. was not already wed. He informed me Hamas is my better half, Hamas is. my child. Hamas for me is everything. Sinwar married after his. release from jail in 2011 and has 3 kids.
Yuval Bitton, who was Sinwar's dental expert before being. recruited by Israel's prison intelligence service, recounted. questioning Sinwar about the futility of Hamas's method when. they kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilat Shalit with the objective of. utilizing him as take advantage of for the release of Palestinian prisoners.
Israel's responded by getting in Gaza, killing hundreds Hamas. fighters and countless civilians.
I said to Sinwar, 'Tell me, is it worth 10,000 innocent. individuals to pass away in order to free 100 detainees, Sinwar's reply. was unequivocal, even 100,000 is worth it.
Nabih Awadah, a previous Lebanese Communist militant who was. imprisoned with Sinwar in Ashkelon in between 1991-95, stated Sinwar. viewed the 1993 Oslo peace accords in between Israel and the. Palestinian Authority as disastrous and a ruse by Israel,. which he said would only relinquish Palestinian land by force,. not by negotiations.
Calling him willful and dogmatic, Awadah said Sinwar would. illuminate with pleasure whenever he became aware of attacks versus Israelis. by Hamas or Lebanon's Hezbollah group. For him, military. conflict was the only path to liberating Palestine from. Israeli occupation.
Awadah stated Sinwar was an prominent design to all. prisoners, even those who were not Islamists or religious.. In prison, he continued to pursue Palestinian spies, Awadah. said. His sharp impulses and care allowed him to identify. and expose Shin Bet informants penetrated in the prison.
Sinwar likewise used his time in jail to find out fluent Hebrew.
Awadah stated Sinwar regularly recalled that Ashkelon, where. they were put behind bars together, was his household's ancestral. hometown.
When playing table tennis in the courtyard of Ashkelon jail,. in present day Israel, Sinwar would typically play barefoot, saying. he wanted his feet to touch the land of Palestine.
Sinwar often informed us: 'I'm not in jail; I'm on my land. I. am totally free here, in my country.'.
(source: Reuters)